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Thursday, July 03, 2014

ESPN: CC Sabathia has swelling in knee

CC Sabathia was aiming to return around the All-Star break, but after waking up with inflammation in his right knee on Thursday, that’s unlikely to happen.
Sabathia was roughed up in his rehab start for Double-A Trenton on Wednesday night, lasting 3 1/3 innings, allowing five runs (three earned) on five hits. He had another MRI on Thursday and has been shut down indefinitely, according to manager Joe Girardi…
“It’s not what you want,” Girardi said of Sabathia. “We were hopeful the swelling would stay away and he’d be in our rotation fairly soon, but that doesn’t appear to be the case.”
New York transferred Sabathia to the 60-day disabled list on July 1, which ensured he couldn’t return until July 11.
With a dearth of quality pitching, the Yankees could be in the market before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. But Girardi wasn’t about to tip his hand one way or the other.
“Our approach never changes,” he said.

Try SCE to AUX

Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: July 03, 2014 at 08:26 PM | 23 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cc sabathia, yankees

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   1. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 03, 2014 at 10:13 PM (#4743022)
That's a bummer, I always like CC as a player. Was hoping he could kind of inch over the 300 win line as I'm not even sure if anyone else is close to giving it a shake. Sure, it's arbitrary, but I find it kind of neat. I suppose Hudson is over 200, but he's heaps older then CC.
   2. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 03, 2014 at 10:19 PM (#4743024)
From where we're sitting it looks like the oldest current pitcher with a realistic chance of reaching 300 wins is Justin Verlander; after that, Clayton Kershaw. I think we just hit a random dip in pitching talent and/or surge in injuries.

Edit: Forgot Felix Hernandez. But Hernandez and Verlander are going to have to stay healthy and good through age 40 to have a shot.
   3. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: July 03, 2014 at 10:22 PM (#4743026)
I wonder if losing a shitload of weight could be considered a form of injury
   4. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: July 03, 2014 at 11:10 PM (#4743058)
[2] I could see Mark Buehrle pitch until he's 45. He has that Tommy John/Jaime Moyer vibe to him.
   5. Walt Davis Posted: July 03, 2014 at 11:40 PM (#4743075)
In the liveball era, only two guys made it to 300 before age 40 -- Maddux and Carlton who both squeaked over at 38. Clemens, Seaver, Spahn, Roberts and Grove were all within 15 wins but that was Roberts' last season. Clemens managed to get there in fewer than 600 starts but that's it for the expansion era. The main key to 300 wins is 625-650 starts. The lower K-rate is concerning but Verlander should be at 300 starts by year's end.

Decision rates are down due to bullpen usage but I get the feeling that, at least for elite starters, win %age is up. And their decision rate may not be that different. Through age 31, Verlander has a decision in 80% of his starts with a 632 win %; assuming he had no decisions in his 6 relief appearances, Seaver had a decision rate of 83% through age 31 with a win % of 630. Seaver had 64 more starts of course but got started a year earlier.

From age 32 on, Seaver had 299 starts (only one season with GS>34) and 129 wins. Give Verlander that plus the rest of this year and he's at about 280 wins through age 41 and would need to last to 43. Schilling from 32 on would put him at about 283 through age 40 in only another 260 or so starts, so only needs to last to 42. Glavine from 32 on would put him at about 650 starts and he should be at 300 wins through 42.

Glavine from 36 on would leave Buehrle around 285-90 wins and about 670 starts.

Which pitchers are durable in their 30s is probably pretty random but it's not clear that nobody from the group of current candidates will do so.
   6. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 04, 2014 at 12:49 AM (#4743088)
The good thing is that knees aren't really that important to a pitcher. I mean, when was the last time you heard a scout say of a prospect, "he has great knees"?
   7. Chip Posted: July 04, 2014 at 12:52 AM (#4743090)
What exactly do the Yankees have as trade bait if they're hoping to land a starter?
   8. boteman Posted: July 04, 2014 at 01:04 AM (#4743092)
He has that Tommy John/Jaime Moyer vibe to him.

I see what you're trying to do, but everybody knows that there is no such surgical procedure as a Jaime Moyer.

It's "Jamie Moyer surgery". Get it right!
   9. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 04, 2014 at 02:15 AM (#4743109)
I could see Mark Buehrle pitch until he's 45.


Isn't Buehrle one of those players that's said he could give it away quite easily and just go hunt/fish/etc for the rest of his days?
   10. Justin T steals bases with his bat Posted: July 04, 2014 at 03:36 AM (#4743120)
Has he done it?
   11. Ron J2 Posted: July 04, 2014 at 09:45 AM (#4743144)
#6 Mike Marshall "knew" how to keep his arm sound through workloads we'd call insane now. Knee injury did him in.
   12. John DiFool2 Posted: July 04, 2014 at 10:12 AM (#4743149)
Well, they finally slid back down to .500.

I hereby predict that, once they slide underneath .500, they won't ever see it for the rest of the season.
   13. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: July 04, 2014 at 10:29 AM (#4743155)
Right! And once the Red Sox get to a game above, they'll never be below it for the rest of the season.


   14. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 04, 2014 at 01:44 PM (#4743288)
If I'm correctly recalling something I read a year ago, the number of decisions per year for starting pitchers has *not* significantly declined since the gamewide adoption of five-man rotations in the late 1970s. That seems intuitive; average innings per appearance for relievers has been declining once a team gets into the bullpen, but my perception is that teams haven't been going to the bullpen notably earlier than they ever have.

Though that information may only be good through sometime in the 2000s, and over the past 5-10 years there has been a gamewide acceptance that the starting pitcher shouldn't throw more than about 110 pitches in a start. That may have noticeably dropped the decisions per year for starters, I don't know. I can't imagine the effect is very large. Starters haven't *routinely* gone over 120 pitches since the 1980s, I don't think.
   15. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: July 04, 2014 at 01:56 PM (#4743310)
30-decision seasons:

70s--118
80s--66
90s--30
00s--19
   16. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 04, 2014 at 02:17 PM (#4743333)
It's being reported that Sabathia may be looking at micro-fracture surgery, which would have him out for the season, and could even be career-threatening, since apparently results vary considerably.
   17. Walt Davis Posted: July 04, 2014 at 07:07 PM (#4743637)
Fair enough, it's the death of the complete game that has reduced the number of decisions, not bullpen management per se. But as 15 shows, the number essentially has to have gone down because of the move from 4 day/man rotations to 4.5-man rotations to 5-man rotations to 5-day rotations cutting into the number of starts. Decision rates might be constant though. To wit:

35-start seasons

70s -- 290
80s -- 153
90s -- 76
00s -- 45
10s -- 2 (both in 2010)

If you look at the Verlander vs. Seaver comp I gave earlier, Verlander is 64 starts behind through age 31 or probably about 30 at years end if he stays healthy. 32 of those are due to Seaver starting a year earlier. So that leaves him 18 starts down over 9 seasons (2 per year).

After 31, Seaver's usage was close to modern usage in GS -- 1 season of 36, one 35, two 34 -- but then we'd expect an aging Verlander to miss a few starts too, so he probably will keep dropping 2 starts a year to Seaver. So he needs to pitch an extra season to make up for that plus an extra season to make up for his later start. Verlander will probably need to pitch at 43 to equal Seaver. But then Seaver didn't need his last season to reach 300.

Back to decision rates -- I'm pretty sure when I looked at this that they were lower now but I could be mis-remembering. I recall thinking that win %ages were higher but that this wasn't clear. I recall it was Tim Hudson who got me thinking this way ...

Hudson, .646 wp, 74% decision rate, 48% win/GS rate
Seaver, .603 wp, 83% decision rate, 48% win/GS rate (assuming no wins in relief)

Anyway, that was my idea -- that at least for elite starters, win/GS rate may not have changed much. But Hudson's hardly typical, that's tied for the 4th best wp of the last 30 years (min 200 decisions) and only 20 pitchers are at 600 or better.

Hudson's problem is that he's still 200 starts behind Seaver. He was about 45 starts behind before he got started, he missed a whole season from 2008-9 and a number of other seasons under 30 starts. Still very good durability of course but Seaver didn't have a season with fewer than 30 starts until age 35 and had only 4 such seasons in his career and never less than 21.
   18. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 04, 2014 at 10:46 PM (#4743730)
It's being reported that Sabathia may be looking at micro-fracture surgery, which would have him out for the season, and could even be career-threatening, since apparently results vary considerably.


It's pretty likely Sabathia is done, I think. He might have a brief return Johan-style, but that's the most that can reasonably be expected of him.

Actually, since the trouble is in his leg and not in his arm, I wonder if it might be worth trying to make him a reliever. It might work wonders only asking him to use that leg 20-30 times in a night rather than 100-110. Of course persuading him to buy into such a plan is easier said by some schmuck on the internet than done by anybody.
   19. bfan Posted: July 05, 2014 at 07:10 AM (#4743807)
so if he is done has anyone run his WAR while on NY, to see how much per win he cost the Yankees, and whether this was a good or bad FA signing?
   20. Swedish Chef Posted: July 05, 2014 at 07:22 AM (#4743808)
so if he is done has anyone run his WAR while on NY, to see how much per win he cost the Yankees, and whether this was a good or bad FA signing?

1 WS = good signing
   21. bunyon Posted: July 05, 2014 at 10:16 AM (#4743844)
It's being reported that Sabathia may be looking at micro-fracture surgery, which would have him out for the season, and could even be career-threatening, since apparently results vary considerably.

Has anyone ever had this and come back at close to the same level? I'm not familiar with it if it's happened but maybe I only remember cases where that was a career ender.
   22. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: July 05, 2014 at 02:19 PM (#4744020)
Has anyone ever had this and come back at close to the same level? I'm not familiar with it if it's happened but maybe I only remember cases where that was a career ender.

Jason Kidd and Stockton in the NBA came back, but there are a LOT more examples of players who didn't (Penny Hardaway, Ron Harper, Chris Webber, Allan Houston, Jamaal Mashburn and many more)
   23. bobm Posted: July 05, 2014 at 02:25 PM (#4744027)
Back to decision rates -- I'm pretty sure when I looked at this that they were lower now but I could be mis-remembering. I recall thinking that win %ages were higher but that this wasn't clear. I recall it was Tim Hudson who got me thinking this way ...

You may be thinking of this thread and/or the Mussina HOM thread linked in one of my posts in it.

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