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Friday, April 27, 2018

ESPN: From here to the Hall: Predicting 40 active players who will wind up in Cooperstown

Andrelton Simmons

Hey, when Omar Vizquel gets elected in a few years, that will open the door for Simmons.

Active players with 100+ points on the Hall of Fame Monitor:

314 Albert Pujols
263 Miguel Cabrera
235 Ichiro Suzuki
167 Clayton Kershaw
163 Adrian Beltre
155 Robinson Cano
140 Yadier Molina
139 Justin Verlander
117 Jose Altuve
115 Ryan Braun
113 CC Sabathia
109 Mike Trout
108 Max Scherzer
102 Dustin Pedroia

DanG Posted: April 27, 2018 at 07:52 AM | 161 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame

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   1. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: April 27, 2018 at 11:18 AM (#5661578)
bWar through age 28:

Simmons 30.3 (incomplete)
Vizquel 12.5
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 27, 2018 at 11:23 AM (#5661581)
Pujols Yes
Cabrera Yes
Suzuki Yes
Kershaw Yes
Beltre Yes
Cano Yes
Molina Not even close
Verlander needs a couple more good years
Altuve way to soon to judge
Braun No
Sabathia borderline
Trout Yes
Scherzer too soon to tell
Pedroia No way
   3. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: April 27, 2018 at 11:26 AM (#5661586)
Hoskins Yes
O. Herrera Yes
Kingery too soon to tell
   4. dlf Posted: April 27, 2018 at 11:37 AM (#5661595)
Kershaw Yes
...
Scherzer too soon to tell


For pitchers, I tend towards peak more than most. Over five seasons, Scherzer has three CYA and two more at 5th. He is 11th all time in CYA shares. While I would give the edge to the guy from LA, I think the gap between he and Kershaw is pretty narrow - the guy with only one colored eye has basically one more season as a top flight starter. I'd put them both in.

   5. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 27, 2018 at 11:43 AM (#5661598)
For pitchers, I tend towards peak more than most. Over five seasons, Scherzer has three CYA and two more at 5th. He is 11th all time in CYA shares. While I would give the edge to the guy from LA, I think the gap between he and Kershaw is pretty narrow - the guy with only one colored eye has basically one more season as a top flight starter. I'd put them both in.

Kershaw has been elite 160 ERA+. Scherzer has been very, very good 128 ERA+

Kershaw has 59.4 WAR and 43.8 WAA. Scherzer's at 45.6 WAR, 28.9 WAA. That's not even close. It's not one excellent season, it's a gap of three excellent seasons.

Scherzer needs to keep pitching very well for at least 2-3 more years. Kershaw's basically in.
   6. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: April 27, 2018 at 11:51 AM (#5661601)
Scherzer needs to keep pitching very well for at least 2-3 more years. Kershaw's basically in.


Well, define pitching well. Scherzer already has a HOF peak. 3 CYA, two 20 win seasons, 4 seasons of over 6 WAR. He's basically Tom Glavine minus a bunch of average years. If by pitching well you mean be at least average, then I agree. I don't think he needs much more in the way of high quality seasons.
   7. BDC Posted: April 27, 2018 at 11:52 AM (#5661602)
Interesting … last year, just offhand, I reckoned the top five on the intro list as locks; and Cano as a lock to become a lock. (IOW Cano would only be in danger if he suddenly vanished or became terrible, and he's playing regularly and batting .321 as of this morning.)

After them, Trout becomes a lock in March of 2020. I also think that Buster Posey has an excellent chance: he's like Joe Mauer with three rings, and he still has time to add more achievements. But then, I'd vote for Mauer himself, while the HOF voters might not. (TFA covers this pretty well.)

And then it's all a bunch of guys with question marks: some clearly HOF types (Altuve, Stanton) but none with much of a stranglehold on the Hall. I think that Verlander and Scherzer are real possibilities, but the actual HOF hasn't even gone for Schilling or Mussina yet, so much depends on how the common wisdom about pitchers will develop.

Votto is interesting. His closest comp for an entire career is Hank Greenberg, but Votto has no rings and didn't spend a big chunk midcareer fighting WW2. His closest batting comp through age 33 is Joe DiMaggio, but Votto has no rings, isn't a primo centerfielder, and didn't spend a big chunk midcareer fighting WW2.

Here's a good comp for Votto through age 33, though:

Player            dWAR   PA OPSRbaser   R    H  HR  RBI  BB   BA  OBP  SLG    Pos
Joey Votto        
-4.8 6141  158  -22.1 863 1586 257  830 996 .313 .428 .541 *3/H7D
Willie McCovey   
-11.5 6260  161   -3.0 903 1491 370 1055 873 .283 .387 .552 *37H/


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/27/2018.

That makes more sense than DiMaggio or Greenberg. Star player, no rings, MVP, always seen as a top hitter, clearly outstanding … but not really iconic except among local fans.

   8. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 27, 2018 at 12:06 PM (#5661610)
Well, define pitching well. Scherzer already has a HOF peak. 3 CYA, two 20 win seasons, 4 seasons of over 6 WAR. He's basically Tom Glavine minus a bunch of average years. If by pitching well you mean be at least average, then I agree. I don't think he needs much more in the way of high quality seasons.

He has 1936 IP, 128 ERA+, 146 Wins, 45.6 WAR, 28.9 WAA.
Glavine has 4413 IP, 118 ERA+, 305 Wins, 74.1 WAR, and 39.1 WAA.

He's not even close to Glavine.

The gap of 2500 IP, 30 WAR, and 159 wins is a great career, not a "bunch of average years".

The HoF hasn't elected a short career, high peak, SP since Koufax and Lefty Gomez in 1972.
   9. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: April 27, 2018 at 12:10 PM (#5661614)

but Votto ... didn't spend a big chunk midcareer fighting WW2
Slacker.
   10. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: April 27, 2018 at 12:11 PM (#5661615)
Hoskins Yes
O. Herrera Yes
Kingery too soon to tell


lol

I think that Verlander and Scherzer are real possibilities, but the actual HOF hasn't even gone for Schilling or Mussina yet, so much depends on how the common wisdom about pitchers will develop.



Schilling and Mussina combined for 0 Cy Youngs. Verlander has 1 (and an MVP!), Scherzer has 3. Both are crushing it this season. They are both going to be regarded by the voters as superior to Schilling and Mussina...

   11. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: April 27, 2018 at 12:15 PM (#5661616)
He's not even close to Glavine.


That's not what I argued. I said he's Glavine minus a bunch of average seasons. 2500 IP 30 WAR is basically, Mike Morgan, Scott Sanderson, Rick Rhoden, who's careers basically define "a bunch of average seasons".

So, as I said, define very well. Does he need a bunch more CYA quality seasons? Merely AS seasons, or just be an average pitcher her to add bulk?
   12. Zonk is a cagey fellow Posted: April 27, 2018 at 12:16 PM (#5661617)
I think Verlander is in.

I think Scherzer will go, too - though, it would be interesting (well, not for Nats fans) if he were to go down with a serious arm problem and basically try to Johan Santana it back over a few years.

I.e., if he DID get hurt - I think his chances go up significantly if he NEVER makes it back.... 28.9 WAA is a pretty damn good number - easily over the HoF line in my mind. Short on the WAR and IP - but I think people (read: voters, even those who don't use such metrics) are far more likely to give him "what if" credit if he were totally done and gone than they do if he makes it back with a hamburger shoulder for a few replacement level seasons.

I'd vote for him.
   13. Kiko Sakata Posted: April 27, 2018 at 12:16 PM (#5661618)
I think that Verlander and Scherzer are real possibilities, but the actual HOF hasn't even gone for Schilling or Mussina yet, so much depends on how the common wisdom about pitchers will develop.


I think this comparison under-rates how important awards are to HOF voters - remember, Cy Young and MVP voters are taken from the same pool as HOF voters. Neither Schilling nor Mussina ever won a Cy Young award - and neither one were obviously robbed of one, although I think one could perhaps make a case for either or both of them. Scherzer has won 3 Cy Young awards, which, historically, is the magic number: no pitcher has ever won more than two Cy Young awards and not been elected to the Hall of Fame. Verlander only has one Cy Young award, but he also won an MVP that season. I'd guess that both of them make it, with Scherzer probably making it first ballot.

EDIT: Coke to #10
   14. BDC Posted: April 27, 2018 at 12:21 PM (#5661621)
Schilling and Mussina combined for 0 Cy Youngs. Verlander has 1 (and an MVP!), Scherzer has 3. Both are crushing it this season. They are both going to be regarded by the voters as superior to Schilling and Mussina...

That's quite possible. OTOH Scherzer turns 34 in a few months, and has won 146 regular-season games (4 in the postseason with no rings) – still fewer Wins, today, than Dizzy Dean or Sandy Koufax. As snapper says, electing Scherzer if he catches the bus right now would mean a distinct shift in thinking for the HOF voters. (Obviously one can project Scherzer to another 90-100 wins in a long career.)

Verlander would seem on track to win more games than Schilling, and now has a ring and a lot of credit for getting his team to it, so his case is in some ways stronger.
   15. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: April 27, 2018 at 12:24 PM (#5661624)
That's quite possible. OTOH Scherzer turns 34 in a few months, and has won 146 regular-season games (4 in the postseason with no rings)


Just an interesting note: through his age 33 season, Schilling was 110-95, with a 123 era+
   16. Kiko Sakata Posted: April 27, 2018 at 12:26 PM (#5661626)
As snapper says, electing Scherzer if he catches the bus right now would mean a distinct shift in thinking for the HOF voters. (Obviously one can project Scherzer to another 90-100 wins in a long career.)


Just to clarify my #13. When I say Scherzer will "probably mak[e] it first ballot" I say that because Scherzer is healthy and pitching as well as he ever has. So, I think Scherzer will probably pitch another 4-5 years at a high-enough level to end up with more than 200 traditional pitcher wins and over 60 WAR.

As for the "Scherzer catches the bus" scenario, I think if he were to literally be found dead in his hotel room tonight or suffer a career-ending injury in his next start, he'd get the Kirby Puckett treatment. If he hangs around as a terrible pitcher for a few years, then maybe he becomes a Johan Santana-like case, but that's certainly not the most likely way for his career to play out from here.
   17. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 27, 2018 at 12:26 PM (#5661627)
So, as I said, define very well. Does he need a bunch more CYA quality seasons? Merely AS seasons, or just be an average pitcher her to add bulk?

Roughly, I think he needs to get over 60 WAR. He's already 33.

He could get that extra 15-20 WAR by average pitching through age 43, but that seems pretty unlikely. It also probably taints his peak enough that he needs way more than 60 WAR. The far more likely path would be 2-3 more excellent seasons.
   18. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 27, 2018 at 12:30 PM (#5661630)
If he hangs around as a terrible pitcher for a few years, then maybe he becomes a Johan Santana-like case, but that's certainly not the most likely way for his career to play out from here.

This is a great point. Scherzer to this point is quite a bit short of Santana's career, and Santana didn't make it to the 2nd ballot. He's got a bunch of work to do.
   19. Booey Posted: April 27, 2018 at 12:37 PM (#5661640)
Votto is interesting. His closest comp for an entire career is Hank Greenberg, but Votto has no rings and didn't spend a big chunk midcareer fighting WW2. His closest batting comp through age 33 is Joe DiMaggio, but Votto has no rings, isn't a primo centerfielder, and didn't spend a big chunk midcareer fighting WW2.


The obvious Votto comp IMO has always been Edgar Martinez, who looks likely to get elected next year. Joey doesn't have 2 batting titles like Gar, but he's got an MVP and barely missed another (and some other high finishes). Also like Edgar, he's even got the nice guy rep and the one team thing (so far) going for him, too.

Edgar had an unusually great "old guy" phase of his career though, so Votto still needs a few more good years to match him.

Edit: Oh, and Votto actually plays a position too, so he won't have the anti-DH brigade all up in his grill.
   20. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: April 27, 2018 at 12:41 PM (#5661643)
The obvious Votto comp IMO has always been Edgar Martinez, who looks likely to get elected next year. Joey doesn't have 2 batting titles like Gar, but he's got an MVP and barely missed another (and some other high finishes). Also like Edgar, he's even got the nice guy rep and one team thing (so far) going for him, too.


Plus, Votto has had a HOF career of trolling opposing fans. That's gotta count for something! :-)
   21. bfan Posted: April 27, 2018 at 12:42 PM (#5661645)
Really, really tired of the Freeman/Rizzo thing.

Well yes, they are the same age and Freeman has been better, so far; has a better current trend line; and seems more healthy at this point (Freeman lost games because of a HBP; Rizzo has a gulp...bad back), so looking at that, I would say it will be...Rizzo.

I wish sportswriters would get up from Theo's lap and walk around the room, every once in a while.
   22. Booey Posted: April 27, 2018 at 12:49 PM (#5661648)
#21 - I may be misremembering since it kind of went under the radar, but I think Rizzo might have won a ring or something... ;-)
   23. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: April 27, 2018 at 12:53 PM (#5661651)
Edgar had an unusually great "old guy" phase of his career though, so Votto still needs a few more good years to match him.

Edit: Oh, and Votto actually plays a position too, so he won't have the anti-DH brigade all up in his grill.


Joey has always struck me as Edgar 2.0 as a hitter. Just needs to keep doing what he's done for a few more years.

Fun observation: If Joey puts up 7 WAR this season (or in any remaining season of his career, actually), this will be the list of first basemen with a better WAR7:

Gehrig
Pujols
Foxx
Mize
   24. DanG Posted: April 27, 2018 at 12:54 PM (#5661653)
It will be interesting to see how this all shakes out. There is a strong group of pitchers born in the mid-80's. The Hall won't have room for all of them, and some will fade and never get serious consideration. Who will make it from this group?:

Player            WAR WAAERABorn   W   L     IP   SO  ERA
Justin Verlander 59.1 35.0  125 1983 192 114 2584.2 2464 3.43
Zack Greinke     57.3 35.5  122 1983 174 109 2485.2 2268 3.42
Felix Hernandez  52.3 28.7  124 1986 163 116 2535.0 2368 3.22
Cole Hamels      52.2 32.8  123 1983 148 106 2397.0 2266 3.38
Max Scherzer     45.6 28.9  128 1984 146  76 1936.0 2206 3.26
Jon Lester       41.7 21.7  122 1984 161  93 2211.2 2063 3.51 

The HOF ballot could see a crowd of pitchers for a bit. You have Sabathia and Colon running just ahead of those above and Kershaw and Sale coming up behind them. And maybe Halladay and Pettitte are still hanging around to add to the jam. Maybe Hudson and Buehrle are in the mix, too.
   25. Tom Nawrocki Posted: April 27, 2018 at 12:56 PM (#5661657)
Well yes, they are the same age and Freeman has been better, so far; has a better current trend line; and seems more healthy at this point (Freeman lost games because of a HBP; Rizzo has a gulp...bad back), so looking at that, I would say it will be...Rizzo.


Yeah, Rizzo for the Hall of Fame seems like an enormous stretch at this point. He's a first baseman who's never hit .300 or hit more than 32 homers in a season. He's a terrific player, of course, but he's closer to being the new Boog Bowell than being the new Eddie Murray.
   26. TomH Posted: April 27, 2018 at 01:04 PM (#5661661)
"no pitcher has ever won more than two Cy Young awards and not been elected to the Hall of Fame"
except of course, You Know Who because You Know Why
   27. TomH Posted: April 27, 2018 at 01:11 PM (#5661665)
humorous thought (well, it's humorous in my head, which might say more about my head than anything else....)

If you asked a computer to draw a curve fit through "number of MVP awards won" and to predict "Hall of Fame chances" it would probably come up with some 2nd or 3rd order function that shows HoF chances ramp up a bit when you win an MVP, more when you win a 2nd, and make you a lock when you when three; and then the curve nose dives in such a way that winning 7 MVPs makes it impossible to be in the Hall!




   28. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: April 27, 2018 at 01:16 PM (#5661669)
As TFA says:

Rizzo with four 30 HR seasons, and three 100 RBI seasons.

Freeman one 30 HR season, and one 100 RBI season.

Maybe by the time either of these guys are on the ballot, sabermetric stats will be more important than old school ones. Maybe not.
   29. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 27, 2018 at 01:19 PM (#5661671)
Matt Wieters is already in the Hall of Fame, isn't he?
   30. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: April 27, 2018 at 01:21 PM (#5661673)
Yes but not our inferior earthly Hall of Fame. They wouldn't insult him like that. (Only Ichiro could insult Wieters like that, if he wanted to).
   31. flournoy Posted: April 27, 2018 at 01:33 PM (#5661683)
Before I read bfan's comment or the article, I had been curious what the consensus here was on Freeman's outlook. The only players younger than Freeman with more WAR are Trout, Stanton, and Machado, for what it's worth.
   32. bfan Posted: April 27, 2018 at 01:47 PM (#5661688)
I may be misremembering since it kind of went under the radar, but I think Rizzo might have won a ring or something... ;-)


In that case Darin Erstad gets in and Barry Bonds doesn't (well, Bonds might not, for other reasons).
   33. Booey Posted: April 27, 2018 at 01:48 PM (#5661690)
As TFA says:

Rizzo with four 30 HR seasons, and three 100 RBI seasons.

Freeman one 30 HR season, and one 100 RBI season.

Maybe by the time either of these guys are on the ballot, sabermetric stats will be more important than old school ones. Maybe not.


Yeah, if Rizzo makes the HOF it will be by being very good for a really long time rather than by ever being truly great. The Winfield/Palmeiro route.
   34. Booey Posted: April 27, 2018 at 01:51 PM (#5661691)
In that case Darin Erstad gets in and Barry Bonds doesn't (well, Bonds might not, for other reasons).


Obviously rings aren't/shouldn't be everything, but I do think that helping to end a 100+ year drought will be a legit point in Rizzo's favor should he find himself on the HOF borderline (to the actual voters, I mean). It's a great story.
   35. Swoboda is freedom Posted: April 27, 2018 at 01:53 PM (#5661692)
(Only Ichiro could insult Wieters like that, if he wanted to).

and Chris Truby
   36. Booey Posted: April 27, 2018 at 02:02 PM (#5661696)
Freddie Freeman also looks kinda like a guy I used to work with. That guy was annoying, and he always used to hit on my wife.

So screw Freddie Freeman. ;-)
   37. DavidFoss Posted: April 27, 2018 at 02:04 PM (#5661697)
Obviously rings aren't/shouldn't be everything, but I do think that helping to end a 100+ year drought will be a legit point in Rizzo's favor should he find himself on the HOF borderline (to the actual voters, I mean). It's a great story.

Gil Hodges drove in both runs in game 7 of 1955 (another memorable drought), managed the Miracle Mets and he's still out. You got to have a HOF career first.

@31 asked about Freeman. He's certainly not on the wrong track, but its way too early. He could be a HOF-er or he could be Johnny Callison. It is easier to extrapolate once you get closer to 40 WAR.
   38. Booey Posted: April 27, 2018 at 02:14 PM (#5661702)
Gil Hodges drove in both runs in game 7 of 1955 (another memorable drought), managed the Miracle Mets and he's still out. You got to have a HOF career first.

Hodges isn't really a great example, since he came much closer to getting elected than his numbers warranted. And being a key member of a famous team is probably one of the main reasons he did get so many extra votes compared to similar players (plus the Miracle Mets thing, obviously).

I also included the caveat:

should he find himself on the HOF borderline


So yeah, Rizzo needs to put together at least a passable HOF case solely on the merits. A Fred McGriff career, let's say.
   39. Tom Nawrocki Posted: April 27, 2018 at 02:29 PM (#5661711)
When Fred McGriff was Rizzo's age, he was on his way to leading the league in homers for the second time, and was putting together his fourth season with more homers than Rizzo has ever had in a season.
   40. Booey Posted: April 27, 2018 at 02:43 PM (#5661716)
When Fred McGriff was Rizzo's age, he was on his way to leading the league in homers for the second time, and was putting together his fourth season with more homers than Rizzo has ever had in a season.


Yeah, but then he nosedived pretty hard just a few years later, even if the rise in offense mostly masked it (as far as raw numbers go). Since Rizzo didn't have McGriff's peak, he'll need a longer prime/more graceful decline to put up the same career.

If Riz can't keep it up for an extended period, he'll have no HOF argument.
   41. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 27, 2018 at 02:48 PM (#5661718)
140 Yadier Molina
. . .
102 Dustin Pedroia

My guess is that these are the 2 guys on the list most likely to fall short. Molina is off to a pretty good start, so perhaps he has a chance to still build his case a bit, but age (35) suggests that's unlikely. Didn't do enough with the bat, except for the 2011-13 seasons. Pedroia is a question mark since he isn't expected to take the field until June, is coming off surgery, and will be 35 in August. If the rate stats fall off, he doesn't have the counting stats to make up for it. He'll have to come back as good as ever to finish building a HoF case. I had my doubts about Sabathia making the Hall, but last year and this have me thinking he may pitch effectively, mostly relying on his breaking ball, long enough to pull himself over the line.
   42. Batman Posted: April 27, 2018 at 02:57 PM (#5661729)
If you asked a computer to draw a curve fit through "number of MVP awards won" and to predict "Hall of Fame chances" it would probably come up with some 2nd or 3rd order function that shows HoF chances ramp up a bit when you win an MVP, more when you win a 2nd, and make you a lock when you when three; and then the curve nose dives in such a way that winning 7 MVPs makes it impossible to be in the Hall!
This reminds me of the Uncanny Valley for some reason. Clemens and Bonds look almost, but not exactly, like perfect Hall of Famers, so everybody feels uncomfortable about them.
   43. Booey Posted: April 27, 2018 at 02:59 PM (#5661730)
I had my doubts about Sabathia making the Hall, but last year and this have me thinking he may pitch effectively, mostly relying on his breaking ball, long enough to pull himself over the line.


I think last season put Sabathia back into the "highly probable" category. He's no first ballot guy (for the voters who still care about that), but he'll likely get 250 wins and 3000 K. Throw in a CYA (with some other high finishes), and that resume should be enough. He'll even have 60-ish WAR to keep the SABR guys from mounting an anti-election campaign like they did with Morris (correctly, IMO).
   44. bookbook Posted: April 27, 2018 at 03:38 PM (#5661770)
Schilling and Mussina combined for 0 Cy Youngs. Verlander has 1 (and an MVP!), Scherzer has 3. Both are crushing it this season. They are both going to be regarded by the voters as superior to Schilling and Mussina...


I don’t think even the HOF voters are this simplistic. Schilling and Mussina have overwhelming HOF cases. Verlander is getting close to having a borderline case. Scherzer? He needs a few years of very strong performance to break past the Chuck Finley/Steib/Appier level.
   45. bookbook Posted: April 27, 2018 at 03:46 PM (#5661783)
When Vizquel gets elected in a few years, that might open the door for Simmons but also for a whole bunch of long-career mediocre bats, probably a dozen or more. Which is the strongest argument for keeping Vizquel out, of course.
   46. DavidFoss Posted: April 27, 2018 at 04:03 PM (#5661793)
Verlander is getting close to having a borderline case. Scherzer? He needs a few years of very strong performance to break past the Chuck Finley/Steib/Appier level.

We're not supposed to care about pitcher wins, but I get the impression that voters feel a whole lot better about peak-candidates who still manage to get to 200 Wins. Of course, you need more than just 200W, but it seems to make the "did this guy play long enough?" worries go away.
   47. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 27, 2018 at 04:20 PM (#5661802)
When Vizquel gets elected in a few years, that might open the door for Simmons but also for a whole bunch of long-career mediocre bats, probably a dozen or more. Which is the strongest argument for keeping Vizquel out, of course.

Vizquel may get more HoF votes than many here think he should, but I still doubt that he'll be elected. He'll be a "high resistance" candidate who will struggle to make the needed year-to-year gains, even if he starts with a vote level from which some others have eventually been elected.
   48. bfan Posted: April 27, 2018 at 04:56 PM (#5661822)
So screw Freddie Freeman. ;-)


Probably not the correct cheer when you are talking about the guy hitting on your wife.
   49. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 27, 2018 at 04:58 PM (#5661824)
Just to follow with some Vizquel specifics, he debuted last year with 37%, and there's a pretty decent 1st-year class this year, with Rivera, Halladay, Helton, Pettitte, Berkman & Oswalt all having higher Career War than Omar, as well as 5 holdover candidates with larger vote totals, plus 9 who received less support. I'm not seeing much room for Vizquel to increase his vote share, and I wouldn't be surprised if he went a bit backwards.
   50. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: April 27, 2018 at 04:59 PM (#5661825)
I don’t think even the HOF voters are this simplistic. Schilling and Mussina have overwhelming HOF cases.

These sentences seem to disagree.
   51. bfan Posted: April 27, 2018 at 05:00 PM (#5661826)
When Vizquel gets elected in a few years, that might open the door for Simmons but also for a whole bunch of long-career mediocre bats


Letting ordinary Jim Rice in has not opened the door for a bunch of slugging OF's has it? Shoot, there are still better Red Sox outfielders of his generation not in.
   52. TDF didn't lie, he just didn't remember Posted: April 27, 2018 at 05:39 PM (#5661840)
Votto is interesting. His closest comp for an entire career is Hank Greenberg, but Votto has no rings and didn't spend a big chunk midcareer fighting WW2. His closest batting comp through age 33 is Joe DiMaggio, but Votto has no rings, isn't a primo centerfielder, and didn't spend a big chunk midcareer fighting WW2.


Here's a good comp for Votto through age 33, though: (Willie McCovey)
So you're saying Votto compares favorably with a 1st ballot HOFer, but isn't really comparable to a guy who took 10 tries to get elected and another who took 4.
   53. cardsfanboy Posted: April 27, 2018 at 05:49 PM (#5661844)
Molina Not even close


Part of the article is arguing for what the writer thinks the voters will do...and points out that Molina has the reputation as a guy with an excellent intangible reputation.

But for the sake of argument, let's say we manage to figure out a way to quantify pitch framing retroactively, and that Molina is able to add .5 war per year on average to his resume. (and all catchers still maintain their same scale) That adds another 7.5 war to his career total. Let's say we manage to quantify pitch calling and it adds .3 war per year to his resume, giving him another 5 war. Let's say he has a relative normal decline phase adding another 5-7 war to his total...this would put him in the 55-60 range as a catcher... I don't think any of this is outside of the realm of what his real value actually was and is and will be.
   54. Walt Davis Posted: April 27, 2018 at 05:54 PM (#5661845)
The HoF hasn't elected a short career, high peak, SP since Koufax and Lefty Gomez in 1972.

This is all true and touched on in various ways by lots of posters. (Apparently we don't consider Pedro "short career" which means we don't consider Halladay to be "short career".) Scherzer is set to pass 2000 and maybe even 2100 innings this year so he's a very good bet to make that 2800 inning barrier if for some reason that is important.

But the main issue is that almost no SPs will have "long" careers by HoF standards any more. The voters will have the choice between changing the standards or never electing another SP. (Barring a sea change in usage back to old patterns.)

Voters are going to have little choice but to focus on peak/elite performance for pitchers, something they may already be doing (Scherzer and Mussina don't have great peaks). Scherzer's 3 CYAs are enough to get him over the line. He's probably a lock at this point or close enough it almost doesn't matter ... or the voters don't change and nobody goes in. (For example, Chris Sale isn't even close to Scherzer yet -- no CYA, 700 innings behind, 9 bWAR behind.)

The more interesting discussion is Corey Kluber. Third in bWAR over the last 5 years (5-6 behind Kershaw and Scherzer, a smidgen ahead of Sale) and only 1100 innings and 79 wins. But 2 CYA, a 137 ERA+ (which will come down), more black ink and as much gray ink as Sale.

Back to Scherzer -- 50 points of black ink (avg HoFer 40), 158 gray (185), HoF monitor 108 (100), Hof standards 40 (50). He's already had the HoF peak and in the current game, no SP is going to reach the career standards (other than 3000 Ks). He's 28th all-time in black ink. Pedro had just 58, Seaver just 57 (Verlander 61, Kershaw 66). Others:

Halladay 48
Palmer 44
Santana 42
Schilling 42
Marichal 37
Fergie 36
Drysdale 27

We'll see what they do with Halladay but I think he's going to get in relatively easily. If not, then Scherzer, Sale, etc. will have to set the precedent.

Regardless, the traditional "career" SP candidate is likely gone from the game for good. So SPs will go in on peak and there will be the occasional guy who manages to reach 3500 innings and 200 wins on a 120 ERA+ but with no peak and he'll maybe slog through in his 9th year on the ballot. It's as if nearly all quality position players careers started ending at 6000 PA with only a handful making it even to 8000 PA. You'd have no more Murrays or Winfields and a guy like Votto (or maybe even Utley) would be a no-brainer.

   55. cardsfanboy Posted: April 27, 2018 at 06:00 PM (#5661847)
double post
   56. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 27, 2018 at 06:21 PM (#5661855)
But for the sake of argument, let's say we manage to figure out a way to quantify pitch framing retroactively, and that Molina is able to add .5 war per year on average to his resume. (and all catchers still maintain their same scale) That adds another 7.5 war to his career total. Let's say we manage to quantify pitch calling and it adds .3 war per year to his resume, giving him another 5 war. Let's say he has a relative normal decline phase adding another 5-7 war to his total...this would put him in the 55-60 range as a catcher... I don't think any of this is outside of the realm of what his real value actually was and is and will be.

Putting aside whether duping the umpire is a skill that should be rewarded, it seems unlikely that this currently non-existent data will emerge in time to benefit Molina. There are far more deserving candidates whenever the Hall gets around to make to making proper positional adjustments when considering catchers. Freehan, Simmons & Posada would all seem like better candidates. Molina is going to end up with less WAR than Thurman Munson in far more games.
   57. cardsfanboy Posted: April 27, 2018 at 07:41 PM (#5661891)
it seems unlikely that this currently non-existent data will emerge in time to benefit Molina.


Fully agree. The point though is that there is currently a skill that isn't being well evaluated to the past, that some sites argue makes up over 1 war per season (I've argued that is a ridiculously high number for that particular skill, but yes I can find advance data based upon statcast that shows up to 2 wins can be attributed in a season to pitch framing(not for Molina specifically, but for the top framers). Considering that Molina has a pretty good reputation as a framer, (prospectus gives him 4.2/8.7/11.0/2.3/23.2/16.5/15.2/20.7/14.5/21.5/3.7/10.4/10.0/6.0/ for 167.9 pitch framing runs..... using a 10 runs per win, that is 16 wins he's adding strictly from pitch framing......note I've argued many, many, many times that pitch framing is measuring at a different scale than war---so of course I think those numbers are massively inflated, but my point still stands, this is a skill that isn't being credited in war, in which many analysts are taking serious and has been shown to have some measurable value, even if that measurement is overstating it's value)
   58. cardsfanboy Posted: April 27, 2018 at 07:43 PM (#5661895)
Putting aside whether duping the umpire is a skill that should be rewarded,


Of course it should... I didn't even know that there were idiots out there that thought it shouldn't be rewarded....value is value... pure and simple. If a guy is providing tangible value to his team, then it should be quantified and credited.... that pretty much goes without saying.
   59. Ziggy's screen name Posted: April 27, 2018 at 08:15 PM (#5661916)
When Vizquel gets elected in a few years, that might open the door for Simmons but also for a whole bunch of long-career mediocre bats



Letting ordinary Jim Rice in has not opened the door for a bunch of slugging OF's has it? Shoot, there are still better Red Sox outfielders of his generation not in.



The concern isn't that we're actually going to slide down the slippery slope. The point is that the logic of inducting Vizquel (or Rice) demands that we induct zillions of other poor candidates. Since that's not reasonable, neither is inducting Vizquel (or Rice).
   60. Ziggy's screen name Posted: April 27, 2018 at 08:18 PM (#5661917)
Oh hey, and also, the guy who Anthony Rizzo is is Mark Teixeira. Who also isn't a hall of famer.
   61. cardsfanboy Posted: April 27, 2018 at 08:29 PM (#5661923)
I do think some people missed the purpose of this exercise, and that is of course that there are 40 hofers playing right now, and "let's try to guess who they might be"... yes we have the guarantees... we have the likely and even the potential mistake candidate or two that the voters will love... but ultimately that is about 20 players... you have another 20 or so to try and guess what might happen...If you can even get 5 of these right, that would be impressive.
   62. The Duke Posted: April 27, 2018 at 08:54 PM (#5661947)
Snapper: that’s “future first ballot hall of famer Yadier Molina” to you.

   63. Adam Starblind Posted: April 27, 2018 at 10:15 PM (#5662028)
Scherzer's 3 CYAs are enough to get him over the line. He's probably a lock at this point or close enough it almost doesn't matter ... or the voters don't change and nobody goes in. (For example, Chris Sale isn't even close to Scherzer yet -- no CYA, 700 innings behind, 9 bWAR behind.)

The more interesting discussion is Corey Kluber. Third in bWAR over the last 5 years (5-6 behind Kershaw and Scherzer, a smidgen ahead of Sale) and only 1100 innings and 79 wins.


SABR fan fiction.
   64. Russ Posted: April 27, 2018 at 10:19 PM (#5662034)
Votto and Scherzer are both one 6 WAR season away from having an H-index of 6, which is a pretty good indicator of “might” make the HOF to “probably”. They are great examples of players in the 5 H-index band of players whose generally have long length or strong peak but not both.
   65. Dale Sams Posted: April 28, 2018 at 12:11 AM (#5662083)
Cant wait for Papi to be eligible and for this whole place to be razed to the ground.
   66. QLE Posted: April 28, 2018 at 12:51 AM (#5662117)
Two items that must be considered, in discussing this:

1) Are we basing our calculations on potential performance until the theoretical end of a career, or is this if the career ended tomorrow?

2) Are we tried to judge it sabermetrically, or on the basis of how we think the BBWAA will behave?

Using the names in the original list, and rating them just based on careers to date and using assumptions about BBWAA behavior:

Pujols: Lock.
Cabrera: Lock.
Suzuki: Lock.
Kershaw: Almost certainly, but probably with more naysayers than the above three.
Beltre: Lock.
Cano: Depends on whether the BBWAA gets weird- should get in, but possibly not first-ballot.
Molina: Hard to predict at this point- Vizquel seems to be a parallel case study, but how that ends is still unclear, and there's no guarantee the BBWAA will act the same way.
Verlander: Depends on what sort of bump they give based on his performance since the trade, as that may increase it.
Altuve: Not eligible, and doesn't feel like someone they'd bend the rules for.
Braun: No, and almost certainly wouldn't see a second ballot.
Sabathia: Questionable- recent ballots suggests that the Yankees bump is gone, and it will probably depend on if they regard him as Halladay with a longer career or a weaker Mussina.
Trout: Not eligible, but someone they might bend the rules for, depending on what ended his career.
Scherzer: The low win count would hurt him, and I don't think the CYA support would save him- it's not going to help Lincecum.
Pedroia: No- his career will be regarded as too short, his stats won't impress traditional voters, and a different Red Sox is going to get the "dynasty" overrating.

This isn't the list I'd make if I were inducting based on records to now (among position players, Beltre, Cabrera, Cano, Kinsler, Longoria, Mauer, Pedroia, Pujols, Suzuki, Trout, Utley, and Votto- still debating pitchers other than Kershaw and Verlander), and I suspect I will have far different opinions after the passage of time- but, as I see it, the goal is predicting the behavior of others (as I know my logic will be questioned even here), and the future could very well slip us all a treat.
   67. PreservedFish Posted: April 28, 2018 at 07:24 AM (#5662163)
The concern isn't that we're actually going to slide down the slippery slope. The point is that the logic of inducting Vizquel (or Rice) demands that we induct zillions of other poor candidates. Since that's not reasonable, neither is inducting Vizquel (or Rice).


Literally zero living humans believe that inducting Vizquel/Rice demands that we induct zillions of other candidates. Those that voted for these guys did it according to logic that closes the door on this complaint. For example, the logic of "the best defensive SS of his generation deserves to be inducted" might suggest at most one or two new candidates in all of baseball history, and that's why people voted for Vizquel, not because his WAR was at a certain level. Now, that logic might appear daft or non-rigorous to us, but at least it's something. Jack Morris boosters do not think that every 40+ WAR starter deserves induction. They think that Jack Morris deserves induction because his 44 WAR does not capture other factors of his performance and the context in which he pitched, factors that pull him across the line.

And of course those that see Vizquel/Rice as errors are content to let them be errors that have no influence on future voting.
   68. Adam Starblind Posted: April 28, 2018 at 08:57 AM (#5662166)
This isn't the list I'd make if I were inducting based on records to now (among position players, ... Longoria


Are you considering Wright retired (he is probably done)? If Longoria retired today (ho obviously won't), they would be highly similar.
   69. BDC Posted: April 28, 2018 at 09:10 AM (#5662167)
there are 40 hofers playing right now, and "let's try to guess who they might be"

It is a fun exercise, though as you say something like throwing darts blindfold. I wonder who some of the least likely HOFers of the past at ages like 30, 32 might have been … Dazzy Vance types who had barely played in the majors, but also guys like Adrian Beltre who had been around awhile without really registering as "future HOFers."

Though maybe there was only one "Dazzy Vance type."
   70. BDC Posted: April 28, 2018 at 09:11 AM (#5662168)
BTW, this was a pretty good riposte re: McCovey, Greenberg and DiMaggio :)

So you're saying Votto compares favorably with a 1st ballot HOFer, but isn't really comparable to a guy who took 10 tries to get elected and another who took 4
   71. cardsfanboy Posted: April 28, 2018 at 11:33 AM (#5662194)
It is a fun exercise, though as you say something like throwing darts blindfold. I wonder who some of the least likely HOFers of the past at ages like 30, 32 might have been … Dazzy Vance types who had barely played in the majors, but also guys like Adrian Beltre who had been around awhile without really registering as "future HOFers."



32 seems like a high start year for a player like that, but going with guys at around 30..

Phil Niekro at 30 years old had 54-40 record, but a good era+ of 132 in 90 games started(and 202 pitched in)
Randy Johnson was 81-62 with 186 games started and a 113 era+... but he had just come off of two all star seasons and top 3 in the Cy...

Mordecai Brown did most of his hof career after he turned 30, but that is because he was a late starter(first major league season was at age 26 and he was good out of the gate)
Early Wynn didn't look like a hofer when going into his age 30 season. 83-94 with a 92 era+.



Jackie Robinson was on the late start train(I think a few of the negro league players in the hof have that excuse)
Sam Rice was another late starter having only two full seasons under his belt by his age 30 season.
   72. cardsfanboy Posted: April 28, 2018 at 11:51 AM (#5662204)
It is a fun exercise, though as you say something like throwing darts blindfold. I wonder who some of the least likely HOFers of the past at ages like 30, 32 might have been … Dazzy Vance types who had barely played in the majors, but also guys like Adrian Beltre who had been around awhile without really registering as "future HOFers."




Here is a list from bb-ref pi, it has the career war of every hofer(batting war) who was playing in 1980 and their numbers up until then.

Rk             Player WAR/pos   Age    G    PA    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB  SB   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
1    Carl Yastrzemski    94.7 21
-40 2967 12642 1689 3109 586  57 419 1663 1683 168 .288 .382 .469 .851
2          Joe Morgan    88.6 19
-36 2186  9455 1413 2127 373  90 224  939 1559 625 .275 .395 .433 .829
3        Johnny Bench    72.9 19
-32 1877  7705 1001 1811 342  22 356 1259  813  67 .267 .344 .482 .826
4           Rod Carew    69.9 21
-34 1889  8085 1102 2394 354 100  80  836  745 312 .333 .395 .444 .839
5      Reggie Jackson    69.9 21
-34 1924  7941 1145 1874 345  41 410 1231  934 212 .273 .364 .514 .879
6      Willie McCovey    64.5 21
-42 2588  9692 1229 2211 353  46 521 1555 1345  26 .270 .374 .515 .889
7        Mike Schmidt    59.1 22
-30 1234  5158  778 1104 208  39 283  787  778 129 .259 .375 .525 .901
8     Willie Stargell    57.5 22
-40 2248  8876 1186 2198 415  55 472 1514  922  17 .282 .361 .531 .892
9          Tony Perez    52.0 22
-38 2313  9441 1153 2399 443  70 348 1462  793  48 .282 .343 .473 .816
10       George Brett    45.6 20
-27 1002  4330  619 1257 244  82  98  579  319 111 .319 .368 .497 .864
11       Carlton Fisk    39.5 21
-32 1078  4353  627 1097 207  33 162  568  389  61 .284 .356 .481 .837
12      Dave Winfield    32.0 21
-28 1117  4512  599 1134 179  39 154  626  463 133 .284 .357 .464 .821
13        Gary Carter    28.7 20
-26  850  3344  406  787 135  16 126  444  321  28 .267 .339 .452 .790
14           Jim Rice    26.5 21
-27  926  3998  596 1124 171  55 196  669  266  47 .307 .356 .545 .901
15        Robin Yount    22.0 18
-24  988  4142  499 1050 193  38  57  390  209  98 .274 .310 .389 .699
16       Andre Dawson    18.7 21
-25  626  2640  343  676 119  37  86  323  140 119 .278 .321 .463 .784
17       Eddie Murray    16.9 21
-24  638  2726  356  712 127   9 111  398  244  23 .291 .353 .486 .839
18       Paul Molitor    12.2 21
-23  376  1713  242  467  82  22  24  144  115  97 .300 .349 .428 .777
19        Ozzie Smith    10.0 23
-25  473  2029  213  416  53  17   1  108  155 125 .233 .296 .283 .579
20   Rickey Henderson     7.9 20
-21  247  1120  160  275  35   7  10   79  151 133 .292 .392 .376 .767
21      Alan Trammell     7.7 19
-22  446  1724  230  423  46  15  17  149  161  32 .280 .348 .364 .712 


And here is the list of pitchers from that same year.

Rk             Player  WAR   Age   G  CG SHO   W   L  SV     IP   BB   SO  ERA  FIP    K%   BBERA+
1          Tom Seaver 88.9 22-35 481 202  53 245 141   1 3622.2 1008 2988 2.60 2.77 20.6%  7.0%  136
2       Gaylord Perry 88.6 23
-41 692 291  52 289 230  10 4796.1 1252 3276 2.96 2.96 16.7%  6.4%  121
3         Phil Niekro 82.5 25
-41 648 217  38 233 209  29 4044.0 1218 2578 3.14 3.40 15.4%  7.3%  122
4      Fergie Jenkins 78.4 22
-37 578 261  47 259 194   7 4010.0  843 2899 3.28 3.20 17.8%  5.2%  118
5       Steve Carlton 67.7 20
-35 525 213  45 249 169   1 3789.1 1292 2969 3.02 3.08 19.0%  8.3%  122
6          Jim Palmer 62.7 19
-34 481 198  51 241 132   3 3499.1 1166 2036 2.74 3.40 14.3%  8.2%  129
7       Bert Blyleven 59.6 19
-29 387 150  41 156 141   0 2841.1  770 2250 2.96 2.84 19.4%  6.6%  126
8          Don Sutton 50.8 21
-35 534 156  52 230 175   5 3729.0  966 2652 3.07 3.03 17.5%  6.4%  111
9          Nolan Ryan 45.1 19
-33 431 173  44 178 169   3 2925.0 1744 3109 3.18 3.05 25.114.1%  110
10   Dennis Eckersley 30.1 20
-25 201  68  13  89  64   3 1346.0  396  976 3.29 3.57 17.5%  7.1%  123
11       Rich Gossage 24.5 20
-28 423  16   0  61  61 134 1009.1  452  836 3.06 3.19 19.810.7%  123
12       Bruce Sutter 18.5 23
-27 300   0   0  32  30 133  493.0  149  494 2.39 2.32 24.9%  7.5%  171
13     Rollie Fingers 17.2 21
-33 767   4   2 101 101 244 1442.1  427 1103 2.97 2.94 18.7%  7.3%  115
14        Jack Morris  9.8 22
-25  98  21   3  37  28   0  599.1  218  301 3.87 3.96 11.9%  8.6%  108 



There is a flaw with this list though, because I'm supposed to have 36 names and instead I have only 35. Found the flaw, I used a game criteria to separate the pitchers from hitters, and that managed to exempt Tim Raines who only had 21 games up to that point in time in his career (-5 ops+ in 27 pa....but 7 stolen bases)
   73. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: April 28, 2018 at 12:24 PM (#5662213)
so he won't have the anti-DH brigade all up in his grill.


Please refer to me as pro-position player, if you don't mind. ;)
   74. BDC Posted: April 28, 2018 at 01:50 PM (#5662235)
32 seems like a high start year for a player like that, but going with guys at around 30..

Yes, you're right. It's a rare HOFer who reaches 32 without dramatically establishing that he has Hall of Fame talent. Even somebody like Earl Averill, who had only played six ML seasons at that point, had had six of his eight best years.

Bill Terry is one of the guys you'd have been hard-pressed to identify as a HOFer after his age-30 season. (If there had been a Hall of Fame to identify him into.) Terry, who had dropped out of organized ball young to work and play on a company club for a while, had just 2,950 plate appearances when he turned 31. He had become a star, but he only had 861 career hits at that point. Over the next six years, Terry became a great star. Of course winning three pennants as a manager helped his HOF case; but he was a BBWAA selection and is in the HOM purely as a player – he's not one of the Frankie Frisch cronies.
   75. The Duke Posted: April 28, 2018 at 01:54 PM (#5662237)
The list in the article is pretty good. I see almost all of those guys having a shot. There are so many players who blossom late though. What if JD Martinez puts up a few more years of power at Fenway. I also think there will be many more relievers. Trevor Rosenthal could come back and log hundreds more saves. Andrew Miller could get in via the Bruce Sutter “changed the game”category. In the Vizquel category could be Big Sexy if he were able to log a couple more good seasons. In the Adrian Beltre category, I could see Justin Upton with 500-600 HRs knocking on the door.

In the “I didn’t know they were so young category”, Carlos Martinez, Stephen Strausburg and Rick Porcello. And finally in the honorary Hank Aaron role how about Freddie freeman.


   76. Rally Posted: April 28, 2018 at 02:03 PM (#5662240)
We’ve got pitch framing data back to 2007. Or at least the raw data is available for anyone who wants to put it together. That’s most of Molina’s career. Certainly enough to give him that needed boost if you are inclined to reward it.
   77. QLE Posted: April 28, 2018 at 02:40 PM (#5662252)
Are you considering Wright retired (he is probably done)? If Longoria retired today (ho obviously won't), they would be highly similar.


1) Until he actually appears in an MLB game again, I'm inclined to consider his career over;

2) My method of calculating puts Longoria at the borderline, and Wright just on the wrong side of it- my method gives a preference for peak, and, while Wright and Longoria have roughly the same total career value, Longoria reached it with about a season's fewer games and at-bats.

#70- Mind you, ballot counts for players who became HOF-eligible at the time DiMaggio and Greenberg were under consideration can't be compared to those for players since then- they both first received votes while active players (albeit in the service), and DiMaggio was inducted before he would he eligible under the current system.

he's not one of the Frankie Frisch cronies


In terms of his induction being meritorious, no- but he appears to have been key involving the parade of bad Frisch picks, and appears to have been responsible for some similarly bad choices by the Veterans Committee that occurred after Frisch was gone.
   78. Booey Posted: April 28, 2018 at 02:59 PM (#5662259)
The position players that always come to my mind for putting up a HOF caliber career almost entirely in their 30's are Paul Molitor*, Jeff Kent, Edgar Martinez, and Adrian Beltre.**

* Showed HOF talent earlier, but couldn't stay healthy. Somehow was much more durable in his 30's than he was in his 20's.

** WAR shows that he was already putting up a borderline HOF career in his 20's due to his defense, but it wasn't until his 30's that he started hitting again and became one of the clear best players in MLB to even the non SABR types.
   79. baudib Posted: April 28, 2018 at 03:05 PM (#5662262)
Bryce Harper is going to be a Hall of Famer.
   80. cardsfanboy Posted: April 28, 2018 at 03:52 PM (#5662272)
Bryce Harper is going to be a Hall of Famer.


Doesn't sound unlikely at all. He's sporadic to an extent, but looks very much like a future hofer. (I mean as of right now he looks like Bret Saberhagen) with 4.3/1.9/9.1/1.2/3.3 but he's also only 26 years old and is having a great season to break the every other year thing.


A guy at 25 who has 26+ career war, very much looks like a hofer.
   81. Swoboda is freedom Posted: April 28, 2018 at 05:45 PM (#5662295)
2) My method of calculating puts Longoria at the borderline, and Wright just on the wrong side of it- my method gives a preference for peak, and, while Wright and Longoria have roughly the same total career value, Longoria reached it with about a season's fewer games and at-bats

Top 5 seasons for each WAR (next 2)
EL 8.2, 7.2, 7.0, 6.2, 4.8 (3.9, 3.6)
DW 8.3, 7.1, 6.9, 5.9, 4.8, (4.1, 3.2)

They are the same peak player. Wright is just older and had several years at the end where he was hurt. I don't think either goes in, unless EL can put together some good seasons with the Giants.
   82. cardsfanboy Posted: April 28, 2018 at 05:54 PM (#5662296)

They are the same peak player. Wright is just older and had several years at the end where he was hurt. I don't think either goes in, unless EL can put together some good seasons with the Giants.


Isn't that part of the point... Wright more than likely has no future going forward, Longoria on the other hand is coming off of a 3.2 war season at age 32.... Longoria has 50+ war now, and is looking like a good bet to put up another 10+ war without any aberration seasons.... a few aberrations and he's sitting on 70 war.... this is a guy who looks like a potential hofer.
   83. Adam Starblind Posted: April 28, 2018 at 06:51 PM (#5662305)

Isn't that part of the point... Wright more than likely has no future going forward, Longoria on the other hand is coming off of a 3.2 war season at age 32.... Longoria has 50+ war now, and is looking like a good bet to put up another 10+ war without any aberration seasons.... a few aberrations and he's sitting on 70 war.... this is a guy who looks like a potential hofer.


No, that isn't the point. It was "the list I'd make if I were inducting based on records to now."
   84. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: April 28, 2018 at 08:27 PM (#5662329)

Paul Molitor*, Jeff Kent, Edgar Martinez, and Adrian Beltre.**

* Showed HOF talent earlier, but couldn't stay healthy. Somehow was much more durable in his 30's than he was in his 20's.
It's called "the DH."
   85. BDC Posted: April 28, 2018 at 08:56 PM (#5662341)
Bryce Harper is going to be a Hall of Famer.

Harper has established that he has Hall of Fame talent. He was basically Mickey Mantle at the age of 22.

I would go on to say that "it doesn't always work out, though" … except it always works out. The eligible position players who had even a 9-WAR season by the age of 24 and didn't make the Hall of Fame consist of Joe Jackson. The other eligibles with 9-WAR seasons by the age of 24 are Collins, Cobb, Speaker, Hornsby, Ruth, Gehrig, Foxx, Vaughan, Williams, Musial, Mays, Mantle, Reggie Jackson, Schmidt, and Ripken; AROD and Trout are not yet eligible – so it's not only that it always works out, but that it always works out with a great deal to spare.

Harper had 10 WAR in 2015, and not because of some possible quirk in defensive metrics. The one guy to join that list since Harper did is Mookie Betts, who is certainly on a HOF track himself; but Betts is there because of an insane dWAR season in 2016. It would not surprise anyone if Betts was merely great in 2016 and not from-another-planet great.

Naturally it doesn't always (or even usually) work out for pitchers, but that's just the nature of pitching.



   86. cardsfanboy Posted: April 28, 2018 at 09:04 PM (#5662344)

No, that isn't the point. It was "the list I'd make if I were inducting based on records to now."


ahh... I gotcha.... a weird point to be on a thread like this which is about a list of people who may or may not be future hofers including guys who have only one year in the game....

that list of players now, seems quite boring and fairly simple and only has about 6 names.
   87. Walt Davis Posted: April 28, 2018 at 11:12 PM (#5662422)
Ugh, lost one of my massive, way too long posts. Believe it or not, this is the short version!! (I get distracted)

Upshot #1 was that, even if they double their performance through age 30, the best current (non-Kershaw) starters will have career totals akin to Mussina and Schilling. Now Mussina basically did double his stats through age 30 and Schilling of course greatly exceeded his. Part of the point though is that they will be the first two modern (non-Koufax?) starters to make the HoF without 2000 innings through age 30. If Bumgarner can get himself healthy, he might make it.

Kershaw got an early start and some other early starters (Felix) have a decent shot at 4000 innings. But other than the one freak every 10 years or so, under current usage, the best SP careers will superficially look like Mussina and Schilling who of course are not having an easy time of it. Even Verlander through 30 doubled is basically an exact match for Mussina's career numbers. Scherzer would fall just short of 3000 innings, just over 60 WAR. Sale is still only 29 but he'd be on track for Mussina's innings and somewhere between Mussina's and Schilling's win totals. (He would have a much better ERA+ and more WAR if he doubled.)

Possibly they won't adjust and the voters will be content with an obvious Kershaw, a possibly obvious Sale and 1-2 M/S types who struggle through. After all, they went a long time between first-ballot starters (Ryan 1999 to Maddux/Glavine 2014). Even in that scenario, how are they going to distinguish who among the 3000-3500 inning pitchers gets through and who doesn't? I'm assuming it will be peak/dominance which is what Scherzer's 3 CYAs plus top 5 finishes demonstrate.

Jose Quintana is a pretty nice example of a modern starter, hasn't had an injury yet, been a full-time starter since mid-2012 (his age 23 season). He wasn't a college starter but that would be a pretty similar start time for a college draftee too. Anyway, he might squeak over 1500 innings through age 30 (2019). Mediocre Sox teams have killed his win totals so he'll be fairly lucky to be to 90 wins by then. The ERA+ isn't dominant but he might make it to 30 bWAR through 30. He's clearly already out of the discussion by current HoF standards, might be out of the discussion by reduced standards ... which is fair enough, his performance is more Pettitte with less run support than it is David Price.

Among current young guys (26 in 2017 or later) there are 6 who have a decent shot at 1500 innings through age 30 and 2 of those with a shot at 1800+. The big surprise to me was Trevor Bauer who had 729 innings through last year. Also Carlos Martinez and Gerrit Cole; Teheran is already at 1000 and might make 1800; Bumgarner to nearly 1400 and has a very good shot at 2000. Of course, before this year we'd have put Taijuan Walker on that list and, until recently, Shelby Miller.

Anyway, the question becomes what are they going to do with the guys who have good peaks but don't make it to 3000+ innings. If Scherzer doubles, he's in and he's well ahead of that pace at the moment. But what if he doesn't? I expect Halladay (2750 innings, 203 wins, 131 ERA+, 65 WAR, 2 CYA with 2 seconds and two thirds) to have a fairly easy time of it. If he does have a fairly easy time, that suggests a guy around 2500-2700 innings, 180-200 wins with 3 CYA in 5 years but also lower ERA+ and less WAR will be at least borderline. Basically, if Halladay has a pretty easy time, that suggests voters have already started adjusting their standards for reduced starter usage, at least to the point where an 8-year run of excellence with some dominance worked in is enough with a fairly minimal amount of filler. If Halladay struggles then Scherzer's (and many other top pitchers of the moment) chances fade.

Scherzer's not at Halladay's level but if Halladay is easy, maybe he doesn't need to be ...

Halladay 25-34: 2200 IP, 148 ERA+, 170 wins, 63 WAR (yowza!) ... that's more than 8 years, less than a full 10 (he missed about 20 starts 2004-5).
Scherzer 28-33: 1100 IP, 145 ERA+, 94 wins, 34 WAR
Scherzer 25-33: 1700 IP, 130 ERA+, 137 wins, 43 WAR

If he finishes this year and next year healthy, his 25-34 will be about 2100 IP, maybe 135 ERA+, 160-170 wins, call it 51 WAR ... not Halladay but (at least) 3 CYA will make him stand out from the rest of the non-Halladay crowd. So sure, if he was hit by the bus today, he probably doesn't get in unless they Puckett him. We all know that what happened to Halladay can happen to any pitcher.

By the way, for post-integration pitchers, the only ones you can say were genuine locks through age 32 have been Seaver, Pedro, Maddux and Clemens. By bWAR, Blyleven is 5th on WAR through age 32 and that wasn't so obvious. Below that the first ballot choices were:

Palmer (59 WAR, 187 wins, 3 CYA)
Koufax
Carlton (52 WAR, 175 wins, 2 CYA with 2 more on the way)
Spahn
Glavine (43 WAR, 2 CYA, 300 wins)
Ryan (43 WAR, 7 no-nos, etc. but no CYA)
Smoltz (43 WAR, 1 CYA closer magic)


Through 32, Verlander and Scherzer were both at 44 WAR with 157 and 141 wins. That's a tough crowd to be in ... and it's a tough crowd to assess. Glavine probably doesn't get in on the first ballot without 300 wins ... but I'm guessing he gets in anyway with 275. The writers fascination with Ryan was always more than he deserved but he helped them with incredible longevity -- the writers certainly aren't as fascinated with Scherzer, Verlander possibly gets a bit more writer love than he deserves. And Smoltz's closer magic. So it's hard to tell how those guys would have done with "starter peak" only.

So does 3 CYAs match/beat 1 CYA and closer magic? How much more does Scherzer need to add to match Smoltz. What are the chances he'll be viewed like Palmer even though Palmer has him pretty well beat by almost any standard? How much did Carlton need to add after age 32 to make it? To make it first ballot? 2 CYAs seems a bit of overkill.

Anyway, I'm reasonably confident that Scherzer, Verlander, Halladay will be viewed close to Palmer/Smoltz and, at worst, roughly the same as Schilling and Mussina. Scherzer probably does need two more solid seasons (or one more CYA) to cement it.

The question then becomes if Verlander/Scherzer become obvious choices, does that move a pitcher with say 6 excellent seasons into the mix? That's the Kluber question -- he's still got work to do to get to 6 anyway but if you put up say 32+ WAR over 6 years and 1200 innings, how much padding do you need to get into the conversation? A full 1800 average innings of 18 WAR? Enough good pitching to get to 60 career WAR?

But if Halladay is borderline then we're not going to see many starters elected. Admittedly, there's not a lot of difference between Santana and Halladay. And Halladay has the misfortune of Schilling/Mussina still on the ballot and Mariano soaking up a lot of votes. He could be one and done.

A lot of folks here go for Dave Stieb. That's essentially based on 2300 innings over 10 years with a 129 ERA+, 146 wins, 54 WAR. Modern usage isn't likely to allow 2300 innings in 10 years which means 54 WAR in 10 years is going to be very difficult too. (Verlander made it to 2150; Kershaw will probably make it to 2000 ... but IP/start has dropped substantially in the last couple of years, including at the top of the rotation.)

Next debate -- who will be the first non-closer reliever to get in (unless you count Wilhelm)? Since moving to the pen at age 27 (one year older than Rivera), Andrew Miller has a 219 ERA+ (better than Rivera but in fewer innings). He's received a couple of CYA mentions and surprisingly has just 2 AS appearances (you send 20 relievers and can't find room for Miller?) He's been insanely good the last 2+ years -- 304 ERA+ in 2016, 319 in 2017 and no runs in 10 innings so far this year. Of course that doesn't translate well to WAR, just 13 of them (Rivera 17.5) and he's obviously got to keep this up for at least another 7 years. I don't expect writers to move in this direction until teams stop having closers or maybe if guys like Miller start throwing 90 innings a year at this level.

Anyway, pitching always poses a problem for writers because usage is always in flux. The writers got a bit lucky that Maddux et al managed to pitch well enough and long enough that the old standards still applied ... and maybe that will happen again. But it doesn't look like it.

Finally, too soon to know for sure, but we still seem headed to a long run of pretty weak ballots. But we might see a whole bunch of these guys hit the ballot in a short span -- Verlander, Greinke, CC, Felix, Hamels, Scherzer, Lester, Price, Cueto are all aged 32-35 this year. Presumably a couple will age well and separate ... or the guy with 3 CYAs will look pretty good. After Kershaw, those guys also take up 9 of the next 10 slots in active pitcher WAR (ignoring Bartolo), with Sale the exception. We're likely to see arbitrary decisions where some similar pitchers get in easy, some survive and some don't make 5% -- if you're betting, put your money on the one with 3 CYA.

Things look pretty grim among the younger crowd after Sale. Bumgarner is 6 years younger and 18 WAR behind Scherzer so he's got a good shot to catch him. Strasburg is just 4 years younger and 21 WAR behind so unlikely. Quintana looks like Strasburg. Next under-30 guy is Porcello at just 17 WAR. Carlos Martinez is 7 years younger and 31 WAR behind Scherzer. If you're not impressed with Scherzer's credentials, you may have a long wait for anybody better who is clearly better (except probably Sale). Obviously some of the younger guys will break through and have a Scherzer run ... but that seems a really small pool to be choosing from already and it seems unlikely they'll get those kind of innings.
   88. taxandbeerguy Posted: April 29, 2018 at 12:35 AM (#5662431)
I love posts and threads like these. I'm a sucker for them. Post 87 is brilliant and concisely addresses a lot of points I would've tried to make. I've been tinkering with a project on the side about all time teams... all teams teams born in X year. One cool thing is that in recent times, every 8 years or so, there is a dream class, a class that just looks that much better than surrounding years. 1992, 1983, 1975 and 1968 are examples of this. Anyway, this topic pertains to the 83 and 92 classes.

1983- Verlander, Hamels and Grienke. Look at WAR and they're all close. Verlander has a Cy and the MVP and a fairly definable period as one of the top 3 or 5 pitchers in baseball. Grineke's got the Cy and a couple other big, big years. Hamels is just really solid (4-6 WAR ovetr almost as many years with very few down years). If I'm picking a Hall, Verlander and Grienke just need a graceful decline from their current positions, Hamels needs a couple more 4-6 years and then a graceful decline, but the similarities are there. Just for reference that '83 team would also have Votto, Cabrera (at 3B) Mauer, Pedroia and Braun, with Ellsbury/Gardner as outfielders and Double E at DH. That team can freaking hit and has a big 3 starters. Scary.

1992- 26 and Under stars. Machado, Harper, Betts and Bryant, with Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, and Jose Ramirez there. Toss in Noah Syndergaard and the sadly deceased Jose Fernandez and this team would've been scary.

Speaking of the 26 and under stars. Everyone acknowledges how good these guys (the aforementioned 92 crew and toss in Lindor, Correa, Arenado and Seager) are. They are awesome. And yet Mike Trout (my favorite player despite being a Jays fan) has double the career WAR of these guys through virtually the same age. That helps put it into perspective on how amazing he really is. Double through 3-6 years of a career of the some of the best players in baseball.

Speaking of which heralded phenom Ronald Acuna made his debut this week at just past his 20th birthday. Awesome stuff. Mike Trout (and Bryce Harper) were in the bigs before 20 too. Throw it in perspective at how good they were at so young an age. Hoping Vladdy G. jr. gets a September callup with Jays to join that club.

Anyway back to the list

Fully qualified - Pujols, Ichiro, Cabrera, Kershaw, Cano, Beltre. Agree with all Cano may have to wait a year or two if he drops off a cliff.

As soon as he gets 10 seasons- Trout. Holy crap this guy is good (and consistent). When your career WAR's through x age's include Mantle, Cobb and Williams, and the most comparable bat is Frank Robinson, you're doing something right.

Knocking on the door - Verlander, Votto, Greinke. I actually think with a second consecutive brilliant year and the world series title last year, Verlander has already punched hi ticket. Greinke's got a couple of monster peak years, a couple really, really good years and a bunch of useful years with a couple weak years at the start. I see him as someone who could use more volume and a couple 3.5WAR type years, good innings eating years with an ERA+ of around 120-130. Votto is a great hitter and just needs a couple more years at a 4-5 WAR level to clearly cross the line. The OBP is too much to ignore now.

Right track - Scherzer, right peak, needs a little more WAR, but a graceful decline is sufficient at this point. Sale. Halfway / slightly more than half way there. I think would really benefit from winning a CY or having a great postseason. Stanton. Have to assume he is in slight decline after least year, but the homers total could be tough to ignore in a few years. Bumgarner. Started early, has the post season resume and then some... regular season lacking, but could get in, just doesn;t seem on track for first ballot just yet. Altuve. In his prime, reigning MVP, if he can keep his recent success going has a shot at being top 5 all time. Think Robbie Cano with more upside as the upper limit (Charlie Gehringer territory). Arenado. offensive numbers look great, OPS+'s don't but defense does. Needs more great seasons, but not necessarily any greater than he's already accomplished.

catchers- Posey - On tarck needs a couple more very good years. Mauer. Seemed a lock. Dropped off. Super borderline unless he has another great year or two. Molina. Comes up just short as defense isn't enough here.

26 and under- Machado. Harper. Betts. Bryant. Bellinger. Seager. Lindor. Correa. - Good list, 5-6 will get to the Hall, 1-2 will wind up well short short and 1-2 will be forever borderline. Don't know who will be who in 2-3 years.

Winz - Sabathia, only needed the graceful decline after 2012-13. It took a couple extra years, but now he's getting it. No first ballot and quite aways behind Mussina and Schilling, but a deserving HOF'er.

Relievers - Jansen and Kimbrel. One might get in, not both. I lean Kimbrel because of the slightly higher degree of dominance, and his eventual placing on the saves list.

First basemen - Rizzo and Goldschmidt. Goldschmidt is Votto light with more speed and better glove. If he can keep it going for a few more years, his selection willl be pretty easy. Rizzo I see ending at 55 WAR or so and a just short candidate, unless the Cubs win like 3-4 World Series.

Call-Ups - Vladdy G Jr. and Ronald Acuna. Too early to tell, but why not at this point? Let's throw Ohtani in here too at the moment.

Yankees- Judge and Sanchez. Too early to tell, but probably as decent of a prediction as any. Both have flashed an are just getting their careers started.

Long Shots and Defense Matters - Yelich. Strasburg. Simmons. Talent is there and value is there, can they keep it up despite... poor health Strasburg, Lack of hitting Simmons and lack of recognition Yelich?

Anyway nice article.



   89. cardsfanboy Posted: April 29, 2018 at 11:41 AM (#5662470)
Part of the point though is that they will be the first two modern (non-Koufax?) starters to make the HoF without 2000 innings through age 30.



I must be reading this comment wrong, because the list of pitchers with less than 2000 innings through age 30 is quite extensive. (Bob Gibson, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Glavine, Bunning, Niekro)
   90. BDC Posted: April 29, 2018 at 01:10 PM (#5662489)
the writers certainly aren't as fascinated with Scherzer, Verlander possibly gets a bit more writer love than he deserves

I wonder how their no-hitters (2 apiece) will figure toward their HOF cases. Maybe the only pitcher to get some extra HOF traction by throwing more than one no-hitter was Jim Bunning. (Addie Joss's plaque mentions both of his no-hitters, too, but his selection was much belated.)

The others (Young, Mathewson, Feller, etc.) didn't need the extra traction, though throwing crazy numbers of no-hitters certainly helped Ryan and Koufax gain mystique. Scherzer's throwing two with no walks and 27 strikeouts is a fairly awesome feat. If either Verlander or Scherzer throws a third, it would put him in special company.

I would imagine that Roy Halladay's no-hitters will come up quite a bit when he becomes eligible.
   91. DanG Posted: April 29, 2018 at 01:34 PM (#5662504)
I would imagine that Roy Halladay's no-hitters will come up quite a bit when he becomes eligible.
Halladay is eligible in the upcoming election. Here's his thumbnail bio at the HOF website:

"Two-time Cy Young Award winner and eight-time All-Star pitched 16 seasons for Blue Jays and Phillies…Three-time 20-game winner led league in victories twice, complete games seven times, shutouts four times and innings pitched four times…Finished second in Cy Young Award voting twice…Tossed second postseason no-hitter in history when he blanked the Reds on Oct. 6, 2010 in Game 1 of the NLDS...Led his league in complete games seven times."

Once again, the HOF looks like a joke - guess they're pretty impressed with Doc's complete games! BTW, hall of famer Jack Morris led his league one time in CG.
   92. eric Posted: April 29, 2018 at 02:10 PM (#5662512)
Since moving to the pen at age 27 (one year older than Rivera), Andrew Miller has a 219 ERA+ (better than Rivera but in fewer innings). He's received a couple of CYA mentions and surprisingly has just 2 AS appearances (you send 20 relievers and can't find room for Miller?) He's been insanely good the last 2+ years -- 304 ERA+ in 2016, 319 in 2017 and no runs in 10 innings so far this year.


Fantastic post as always, Walt. Responding to only this part in no way implies I did not appreciate the entire thing. It's more of: this is the only thing my feeble mind could come up with. :)

Andrew Miller's ERA+ in 2010 was 49. It has gone up every season since then (including this one since it's infinity). So that's (currently) a nine-year strictly increasing sequence of ERA+. I wonder, would that be a record? If he comes back to Earth this year and ends the streak, where would his eight-year stretch rank?
   93. Ray (CTL) Posted: April 29, 2018 at 05:33 PM (#5662607)
How many players have posted a ~142 OPS+ as a 21 year old rookie and not gone to the HOF?

(Re Cody Bellinger. Somehow his b-r page doesn't have a similar hitters list.)

I'll spot you Strawberry - 134 OPS+ as a 21 year old rookie.
   94. Ray (CTL) Posted: April 29, 2018 at 05:43 PM (#5662611)
There's also Cedeno -- 162 OPS+ as a 21 year old, 2nd season.

(For these purposes I'm not really interested in qualified steroids players not making it such as ARod.)

   95. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: April 29, 2018 at 05:47 PM (#5662613)
How many players have posted a ~142 OPS+ as a 21 year old rookie and not gone to the HOF?


Hal Trosky
Del Ennis
Dick Hoblitzel
a whole boatload of 19th C guys,
and a bunch of guys with 200 or fewer PA.
   96. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 29, 2018 at 05:48 PM (#5662614)
Wrong thread.
   97. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: April 29, 2018 at 05:52 PM (#5662615)
If Strawberry counts, then there's Curt Belfary, 139 OPS+ and Carlos May 137
   98. cardsfanboy Posted: April 29, 2018 at 05:57 PM (#5662618)
How many players have posted a ~142 OPS+ as a 21 year old rookie and not gone to the HOF?


Cesar Cedeno, Carlos May, Curt Blefary---seriously this guy was pretty awesome for a few years---, Tony Conigliaro, Del Ennis, Hal Trosky ..... that is pretty much the list though (post 1912)
   99. Ray (CTL) Posted: April 29, 2018 at 06:30 PM (#5662627)
Thanks. Seems rare for a player like that not to have a HOF career.
   100. Ithaca2323 Posted: April 29, 2018 at 06:40 PM (#5662630)
(Scherzer and Mussina don't have great peaks). Scherzer's 3 CYAs are enough to get him over the line.


This doesn't make sense to me. Since when would three Cys in a five year stretch not be considered a great peak?
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