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Friday, April 27, 2018

ESPN: From here to the Hall: Predicting 40 active players who will wind up in Cooperstown

Andrelton Simmons

Hey, when Omar Vizquel gets elected in a few years, that will open the door for Simmons.

Active players with 100+ points on the Hall of Fame Monitor:

314 Albert Pujols
263 Miguel Cabrera
235 Ichiro Suzuki
167 Clayton Kershaw
163 Adrian Beltre
155 Robinson Cano
140 Yadier Molina
139 Justin Verlander
117 Jose Altuve
115 Ryan Braun
113 CC Sabathia
109 Mike Trout
108 Max Scherzer
102 Dustin Pedroia

DanG Posted: April 27, 2018 at 07:52 AM | 161 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame

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   101. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: April 29, 2018 at 06:56 PM (#5662636)
Thanks. Seems rare for a player like that not to have a HOF career.


Well, it's rare period. On the one hand, we have identified Strawberry, Cedeno ,May, Belfary, Conigliaro, Ennis, and Trosky. Now the HOFers:

Kaline
Mathews
Ott
Griffey
Aaron
Williams
Vaughan
Cobb
Foxx
Mantle
speaker
Hornsby
Crawford

13 to 7. But most of those HOFers were well above 142. The truly comparable, 135 to 150 say, were:

Speaker 151
Foxx 148
Vaughan 145
Aaron 141
Kaline 139

But then that's further complicated by the fact that none of the HOFers above were 21 YO rookies. Speaker's first full season was as a 21 YO, but he had 126 PA as a 20 YO. Kaline had a 139 as a 21 YO, but a 162 as a 20 YO.

re-doing the list of the 13 HOFers, with their rookie years added:


Kaline - 19
Mathews - 20
Ott - 18
Griffey - 19
Aaron - 20
Williams - 20
Vaughan - 20
Cobb - 18
Foxx - 19
Mantle - 19
speaker - 20
Hornsby - 20
Crawford - 19

So, in one sense, no one (so far) who's had a ~142 OPS+ as a 21 YO rookie has made the HOF.
   102. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: April 29, 2018 at 07:02 PM (#5662637)
addendum to 101.

for some reason, my search omitted Musial, who was a 21 YO rookie. Re-doing the search using the rookie option in the PI yields:

Trosky 162 OPS+
Pujols 157
Musial 151
Ennis 144
Belfray 139
Bellinger 142
May 137


   103. cardsfanboy Posted: April 29, 2018 at 07:07 PM (#5662641)
Belfray


In this thread so far his name has been spelled at least three different ways....

bb-reference lists it as Blefary
   104. stig-tossled, hornswoggled gef the typing mongoose Posted: April 29, 2018 at 07:20 PM (#5662648)
bb-reference lists it as Blefary


Just looked him up, as I recalled him only vaguely (he was pretty much done when I started following MLB in '71). His last year was his age-28 season. Geez.
   105. DavidFoss Posted: April 29, 2018 at 07:26 PM (#5662653)
Bats in the Blefary.

https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/4aa82107

The SABR Bio does mention personal demons in its lede.

Moving him to catcher in his fourth season seems like an odd decision. You don’t often see a corner OF moved to catcher.
   106. cardsfanboy Posted: April 29, 2018 at 07:27 PM (#5662654)
Just looked him up, as I recalled him only vaguely (he was pretty much done when I started following MLB in '71). His last year was his age-28 season. Geez.


His last season he was a 100 ops+ backup catcher.... and still couldn't find a job because his average was .221.
   107. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: April 29, 2018 at 07:38 PM (#5662664)
OK, the definitive list. There have been 46 player-seasons of at least 135 OPS+ at age 21 or younger, 400 or more PA. 36 unique players. 15 of those seasons came at age 19 or 20. In the case of Mel Ott, both. Bellinger's 142 OPS+ ranks 34th. He ranks ahead of only eight 21 year olds, and one of them had a 162 at age 20.

He's in nice company, but he's truly at the bottom edge of this group. By age and OPS+ he most comparable to Aaron and Giancarlo Stanton, who were both full time (more or less) rookies at age 20. but he's also not far from Del Ennis and Dick Hoblitzell
   108. cardsfanboy Posted: April 29, 2018 at 07:50 PM (#5662671)
OK, the definitive list. There have been 46 player-seasons of at least 135 OPS+ at age 21 or younger, 400 or more PA. 36 unique players. 15 of those seasons came at age 19 or 20. In the case of Mel Ott, both. Bellinger's 142 OPS+ ranks 34th. He ranks ahead of only eight 21 year olds, and one of them had a 162 at age 20.

He's in nice company, but he's truly at the bottom edge of this group. By age and OPS+ he most comparable to Aaron and Giancarlo Stanton, who were both full time (more or less) rookies at age 20. but he's also not far from Del Ennis and Dick Hoblitzell


The argument wasn't whether it was a rare occurrence though, the argument was whether or not it was rare for a guy to have a season like that and not make the hof...

Here is the list of players who met your criteria and are not in the hof.

Rk              Player HR OPS+  PA   R   H 2B 3B RBI  BB   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS
1       Cody Bellinger 39  142 548  87 128 26  4  97  64 .267 .352 .581  .933
2        Albert Pujols 37  157 676 112 194 47  4 130  69 .329 .403 .610 1.013
3       Alex Rodriguez 36  161 677 141 215 54  1 123  59 .358 .414 .631 1.045
4           Hal Trosky 35  150 685 117 206 45  9 142  58 .330 .388 .598  .987
5    Giancarlo Stanton 34  141 601  79 135 30  5  87  70 .262 .356 .537  .893
6           Mike Trout 30  168 639 129 182 27  8  83  67 .326 .399 .564  .963
7           Mike Trout 27  179 716 109 190 39  9  97 110 .323 .432 .557  .988
8      Tony Conigliaro 24  137 444  69 117 21  2  52  35 .290 .354 .530  .883
9        Carlos Correa 22  135 432  52 108 22  1  68  40 .279 .345 .512  .857
10        Cesar Cedeno 22  162 625 103 179 39  8  82  56 .320 .385 .537  .921
11        Curt Blefary 22  139 561  72 120 23  4  70  88 .260 .381 .470  .851
12          Carlos May 18  137 434  62 103 18  2  62  58 .281 .385 .488  .873
13           Del Ennis 17  144 583  70 169 30  6  73  39 .313 .364 .485  .849
14        Mike Tiernan  9  152 492  75 130 16  8  52  42 .293 .364 .427  .790
15        Tom McCreery  7  155 493  87 155 23 21  65  42 .351 .409 .546  .956
16        Sherry Magee  6  135 630  77 159 36  8  67  52 .282 .348 .407  .755
17         Denny Lyons  6  162 623 128 209 43 14 102  47 .367 .421 .523  .943
18        Fred Carroll  5  150 542  92 140 28 11  64  52 .288 .362 .422  .783
19     Dick Hoblitzell  4  143 592  59 159 23 11  67  44 .308 .364 .418  .782
20      Stuffy McInnis  3  137 649  83 186 25 13 101  49 .327 .384 .433  .817
21         Larry Doyle  0  135 429  65 116 16  9  33  22 .308 .354 .398  .752 
   109. cardsfanboy Posted: April 29, 2018 at 07:53 PM (#5662673)
Pujols will obviously make the hof, Arod also is deserved and Trout has probably come pretty close to crossing the threshold.... Stanton might be interesting if he collapses, but seems to be on a hof path.
   110. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: April 29, 2018 at 08:10 PM (#5662680)
the argument was whether or not it was rare for a guy to have a season like that and not make the hof...


Yes, but most of the HOFers were either younger, or much better, or both. Al Kaline with a 162 OPS+ at age 20 isn't really a comp. Ted Williams with a 160 and 161 at 20 and 21 isn't really a comp. Jimmie Foxx hitting 173 at age 21 doesn't tell us much about the HOF chances of a 142 at age 21. And when you weed out the truly superior, you are left with roughly 50/50 HOF/not HOF.

There are 110 players with 2500 or more hits. 68 are in the HOF. Another dozen or so will be or should be in the HOF. That doesn't mean that Steve Finley or Garret Anderson have a good shot at the HOF, in large part because the overwhelming majority of the HOFers have more, usually a lot more.
   111. Ray (CTL) Posted: April 29, 2018 at 08:11 PM (#5662681)
Of the 19 non-Bellinger players listed in #108, I'm excluding these pre-modern players and Conigliaro whose career was cut short:

Tiernan
McCreery
Magee
Lyons
Carroll
Hoblitzell
McInnis (straddles but his useful career was in the dead ball era)
Doyle
Conigliaro

Thus we have 10 other players:

Pujols
ARod
Trout
Stanton
Correa
------
Trosky
Cedeno
Blefary
May
Ennis

The top 5 are either effective HOFers (Pujols, ARod, Trout) or credible candidates (Stanton, Correa). That leaves the bottom 5.

   112. Ray (CTL) Posted: April 29, 2018 at 08:16 PM (#5662683)
Yes, but most of the HOFers were either younger, or much better, or both. Al Kaline with a 162 OPS+ at age 20 isn't really a comp. Ted Williams with a 160 and 161 at 20 and 21 isn't really a comp. Jimmie Foxx hitting 173 at age 21 doesn't tell us much about the HOF chances of a 142 at age 21. And when you weed out the truly superior, you are left with roughly 50/50 HOF/not HOF.


I think the flaw in your logic here is that you don't have to be an inner circle HOFer to be a HOFer. I'm not suggesting that Bellinger is Ted Williams or Jimmie Foxx, only that he's most likely going to make the Hall. You also have to consider how many players are _not_ able to post a 140 OPS+ at age 21.
   113. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: April 29, 2018 at 08:19 PM (#5662684)
and Conigliaro whose career was cut short:


If you are truly looking for an answer to the question "How likely is this guy to make the HOF?", you shouldn't exclude injury cases. A lot of guys would have made the HOF but for injuries. In fact, I'll go further. Anyone who has the capability of hitting a 142 OPS+ as a 21 YO has HOF ability, and barring injury, illness, or other self inflicted wounds (substance abuse for example), will in all likelihood make the HOF. But everything after the word barring is the great filter.
   114. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: April 29, 2018 at 08:25 PM (#5662686)
I think the flaw in your logic here is that you don't have to be an inner circle HOFer to be a HOFer. I'm not suggesting that Bellinger is Ted Williams or Jimmie Foxx, only that he's most likely going to make the Hall. You also have to consider how many players are _not_ able to post 140 OPS+s at age 21.


I'm not saying that. I'm trying to tease out if you are. Look at your post 111.

Thus we have 10 other players:

Pujols
ARod
Trout
Stanton
Correa
------
Trosky
Cedeno
Blefary
May
Ennis

The top 5 are either effective HOFers (Pujols, ARod, Trout) or credible candidates (Stanton, Correa). That leaves the bottom 5.


Pujols 157 at age 21
ARod 161 at age 20
Trout 168 at age 20


Those aren't comparable to Bellinger either.

Stanton is. Correa (only as a hitter) is. So your list implies 50/50 in/out for comps, but it's really 2 maybes vs 5 nos.
   115. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: April 29, 2018 at 08:40 PM (#5662690)
Let's look at Bellinger's teammate, Puig. Post deadball era players with 150+ OPS+ in at least 400 PA at age 22 or earlier not in the HOF:

Correa
Harper
Trout
Puig
Stanton
Miggy Cabrera
Pujols
Alex Rodriguez
Jack Clark
Cedeno
Bernie carbo
Dick Allen
Pete Reiser
Trosky

I'll eliminate Reiser because his career was cut short. There are 8 effective HOFers or credible candidates. That leaves 4 besides Puig.

Puig is very unlikely to make the HOF.



   116. Ray (CTL) Posted: April 29, 2018 at 08:40 PM (#5662691)
and Conigliaro whose career was cut short:

If you are truly looking for an answer to the question "How likely is this guy to make the HOF?", you shouldn't exclude injury cases. A lot of guys would have made the HOF but for injuries. In fact, I'll go further. Anyone who has the capability of hitting a 142 OPS+ as a 21 YO has HOF ability, and barring injury, illness, or other self inflicted wounds (substance abuse for example), will in all likelihood make the HOF. But everything after the word barring is the great filter.


That's a fair point but I'm not sure I'd consider Conigliaro an "injury case" per se. He's more a fluke. It's not like his back started acting up like Mattingly, which happens to countless players. He got hit in the eye with a pitch and it ruined his career, which is fairly rare for a player this side of Ray Chapman. (As we know Kirby Puckett's career did _not_ end due to the beaning. Interestingly Stanton, also on the list, of course suffered a nasty beaning too. But he's been able to continue.)
   117. cardsfanboy Posted: April 29, 2018 at 08:42 PM (#5662693)

Stanton is. Correa (only as a hitter) is. So your list implies 50/50 in/out for comps, but it's really 2 maybes vs 5 nos.


not really...the list he is referencing has removed ALL hof players from it... so he's only looking at non-hofers and just because a few likely hofers have made it on the list, doesn't dismantle his point.

   118. Ray (CTL) Posted: April 29, 2018 at 08:45 PM (#5662695)
Puig's career trajectory has indeed been disappointing. Same with Jason Heyward, who was a better hitter at age 20 than he's been since. Brunansky is (was) another.
   119. cardsfanboy Posted: April 29, 2018 at 08:47 PM (#5662696)
Of course if you stretch the minimum to say 130 ops+ for players 21 years or under with at least 300 pa, you end up with 41 players not in the hof and 34 who made the hof.... Of course that list of 41 includes Trout, Arod, and Pujols.... along with surprising Jason Heyward, Correa, Stanton, and Harper.

But ultimately it does seem to imply that Bellinger has about a 50/50 shot at the hall based upon his performance so far in his career....
   120. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: April 29, 2018 at 08:49 PM (#5662697)
not really...the list he is referencing has removed ALL hof players from it... so he's only looking at non-hofers and just because a few likely hofers have made it on the list, doesn't dismantle his point.


If you are playing a numbers game it does. if your argument is, and I think his is, is that "This number of players have done at least X by age Y, and most of them are HOFers, then this guy who has done X has a good chance of making the HOF. And the problem is, that with a lower boundary on the achievement but bot an upper one, you get a bunch of clearly superior players boosting the odds. Like my 2500+ hit club example from above.

A bunch of guys performing well above your example, and are HOFers, do nothing to help your case except in a smoke and mirrors case. You have to look at true comps, not people who are in the group because there is no upper bounds to who gets in.
   121. cardsfanboy Posted: April 29, 2018 at 08:59 PM (#5662700)

If you are playing a numbers game it does. if your argument is, and I think his is, is that "This number of players have done at least X by age Y, and most of them are HOFers, then this guy who has done X has a good chance of making the HOF. And the problem is, that with a lower boundary on the achievement but bot an upper one, you get a bunch of clearly superior players boosting the odds. Like my 2500+ hit club example from above.

A bunch of guys performing well above your example, and are HOFers, do nothing to help your case except in a smoke and mirrors case. You have to look at true comps, not people who are in the group because there is no upper bounds to who gets in.


He referenced my list in 108, which exempted all hofers, so here is the list from 108, including all hofers. (qualifier was 21 year and under... I didn't care about rookie status as that was an unnecessary requirement in my opinion, 400 pa, and an ops+ over 135)

My original list had 21 people, this one has 46. I probably should have sorted my original list by ops+ instead of the default of hr...

Rk              Player HR OPSYear   R   H 2B 3B RBI   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS
1           Mike Trout 27  179 2013 109 190 39  9  97 .323 .432 .557  .988
2          Jimmie Foxx 33  173 1929 123 183 23  9 118 .354 .463 .625 1.088
3        Eddie Mathews 47  171 1953 110 175 31  8 135 .302 .406 .627 1.033
4       Rogers Hornsby  8  169 1917  86 171 24 17  66 .327 .385 .484  .868
5              Ty Cobb  4  169 1908  88 188 36 20 108 .324 .367 .475  .842
6           Mike Trout 30  168 2012 129 182 27  8  83 .326 .399 .564  .963
7         Sam Crawford 16  167 1901  91 170 20 16 104 .330 .378 .524  .903
8              Ty Cobb  5  167 1907  97 212 28 14 119 .350 .380 .468  .848
9              Mel Ott 42  165 1929 138 179 37  2 151 .328 .449 .635 1.084
10           Al Kaline 27  162 1955 121 200 24  8 102 .340 .421 .546  .967
11       Mickey Mantle 23  162 1952  94 171 37  7  87 .311 .394 .530  .924
12        Cesar Cedeno 22  162 1972 103 179 39  8  82 .320 .385 .537  .921
13         Denny Lyons  6  162 1887 128 209 43 14 102 .367 .421 .523  .943
14      Alex Rodriguez 36  161 1996 141 215 54  1 123 .358 .414 .631 1.045
15        Ted Williams 23  161 1940 134 193 43 14 113 .344 .442 .594 1.036
16        Ted Williams 31  160 1939 131 185 44 11 145 .327 .436 .609 1.045
17       Albert Pujols 37  157 2001 112 194 47  4 130 .329 .403 .610 1.013
18         Ken Griffey 22  155 1991  76 179 42  1 100 .327 .399 .527  .926
19        Tom McCreery  7  155 1896  87 155 23 21  65 .351 .409 .546  .956
20        Mike Tiernan  9  152 1888  75 130 16  8  52 .293 .364 .427  .790
21         Stan Musial 10  151 1942  87 147 32 10  72 .315 .397 .490  .888
22        Tris Speaker  7  151 1909  73 168 26 13  77 .309 .362 .443  .805
23      Rogers Hornsby  6  151 1916  63 155 17 15  65 .313 .369 .444  .814
24          Hal Trosky 35  150 1934 117 206 45  9 142 .330 .388 .598  .987
25             Mel Ott 25  150 1930 122 182 34  5 119 .349 .458 .578 1.036
26        Fred Carroll  5  150 1886  92 140 28 11  64 .288 .362 .422  .783
27         Jimmie Foxx 13  148 1928  85 131 29 10  79 .328 .416 .548  .964
28        Arky Vaughan  9  146 1933  85 180 29 19  97 .314 .388 .478  .866
29       Jesse Burkett  4  145 1890  67 124 23 13  60 .309 .366 .461  .827
30       Mickey Mantle 21  144 1953 105 136 24  3  92 .295 .398 .497  .895
31           Del Ennis 17  144 1946  70 169 30  6  73 .313 .364 .485  .849
32      Frank Robinson 38  143 1956 122 166 27  6  83 .290 .379 .558  .936
33     Dick Hoblitzell  4  143 1909  59 159 23 11  67 .308 .364 .418  .782
34      Cody Bellinger 39  142 2017  87 128 26  4  97 .267 .352 .581  .933
35   Giancarlo Stanton 34  141 2011  79 135 30  5  87 .262 .356 .537  .893
36          Hank Aaron 27  141 1955 105 189 37  9 106 .314 .366 .540  .906
37           Al Kaline 27  139 1956  96 194 32 10 128 .314 .383 .530  .913
38        Curt Blefary 22  139 1965  72 120 23  4  70 .260 .381 .470  .851
39             Mel Ott 18  139 1928  69 140 26  4  77 .322 .397 .524  .921
40     Tony Conigliaro 24  137 1964  69 117 21  2  52 .290 .354 .530  .883
41          Carlos May 18  137 1969  62 103 18  2  62 .281 .385 .488  .873
42      Stuffy McInnis  3  137 1912  83 186 25 13 101 .327 .384 .433  .817
43         Ken Griffey 22  136 1990  91 179 28  7  80 .300 .366 .481  .847
44       Carlos Correa 22  135 2015  52 108 22  1  68 .279 .345 .512  .857
45        Sherry Magee  6  135 1906  77 159 36  8  67 .282 .348 .407  .755
46         Larry Doyle  0  135 1908  65 116 16  9  33 .308 .354 .398  .752 

   122. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: April 29, 2018 at 09:12 PM (#5662704)
Last list. Players who compiled an OPS+ between 134 and 150 in at least 400 PA at age 21 or younger. IE, a starting point for the true comps. This eliminates the superior seasons which don't tell us much.

18 players, ranking by OPS+:

Foxx *
Vaughan*
Mantle*
Ennis
Frank Robinson*
Bellinger
Stanton
Aaron*
Ott*
Kaline*
Blefray
May
Conigliaro
Bob Horner
Griffey*
Rickey*
Correa
Strawberry

*HOFer

I eliminate Foxx, Mantle, Kaline, Griffey, and Ott as they had another season in the age range well above 150, proving them to not be a legit comp.

That leaves 12 besides Bellinger. 4 HOFers, 2 very good but far from locks current players, and 6 nons.

These I believe are the true comps, and I'll buy the 50/50 thing.
   123. cardsfanboy Posted: April 29, 2018 at 09:16 PM (#5662708)
note: I said the 50/50 thing and I don't actually believe it to be honest... I was just pointing to one data point that says it's 50/50.... I don't really know if that is the best way to think about something like this going forward, but it does say that there is a good precedent...

At the same time, there is a sea of change in how teams use players and how they evaluate players over the past decade and that might make a difference in how a guy gets playing time early in his career over how a similar skilled player might have been used..
   124. Ziggy's screen name Posted: April 29, 2018 at 11:42 PM (#5662736)
Injuries don't discriminate based on OPS+, so to do this you also need to figure out how likely he is to have a career-ending injury, or one that diminishes his ability significantly before he's HOF-qualified. The probability of those things happening isn't shown by what has happened to comparable offensive players, it's shown by what has happened to players in general.

But really the way to do this is to run your favorite projection system for the rest of Bellinger's carrer and see if it spits out a HOF career. Since he's so young any projection is going to include a lot of regression, and so I suspect that any projection system worth its salt will suggest that he's not going to be a hall of famer.
   125. Adam Starblind Posted: April 30, 2018 at 07:08 AM (#5662749)
Here is the ZIPS career projection for Lastings Milledge after the 2007 season. If he stuck in CF, a borderline HOFer. If not, he's still Jose Canseco.

I never understood how this happened.
   126. Lassus Posted: April 30, 2018 at 08:20 AM (#5662760)
Billy Wagner and Mike Pelfrey, apparently.

(Also, injuries.)
   127. Ithaca2323 Posted: April 30, 2018 at 09:10 AM (#5662767)
Not even including Utley in the list seems odd.

Utley's got 66.1 WAR. and while his counting stats are going to put him in a big hole, the idea that he won't even merit discussion whenever he gets on the ballot seems silly. WAR isn't everything to voters, but it matters to an increasingly bigger number of voters today, compared to when guys like Grich and Whitaker were ignored. Sneaking over 2,000 hits could help with appearances.

A lot of pitchers have been discussed. My thoughts:

Scherzer seems like he's in bus mode to me, or at least Licecum mode. That third Cy young is going to shift things for a lot of voters, he's going to have elite K numbers, and while the WAR probably won't get into the Mussina/Schilling level, it should get respectable enough, that it's not going to hold him back. And he's got a chance to add to it as well.

Ditto Verlander. Just the one Cy, but comes with an MVP. He also has a ton over other high finishes, his WAR is in a good spot, and he's got a lot of black ink and a very good postseason resume. I think it's tempting to look at the struggles of Mussina and Schilling and be skeptical, but in addition to the hardware he has that Mussina doesn't, I think it's important to remember that Mussina's almost certainly going to get in over the next two votes, and Schilling probably would be if he'd kept his mouth shut, since he was ahead of Mussina their first few years. Given that he still looks effective, I think he's going to get to 70 WAR and get in fairly easily.

Sabathia is going to be an interesting litmus test. The WAR isn't going to be great, but he does have the Cy, and the WS ring, and his counting numbers will be pretty good (250 wins, 3,000 K) My gut says he falls just a bit short, but if he can keep up for another few years, I think he's got a good shot.

Sale's another interesting case, as he seems like he could be destined to be Mussina with fewer wins. He could really use a postseason boost. The elite K numbers will help, but only so much

I don't like Hamels' chances. The WAR might be nice, but he doesn't have any CYs (and doesn't even really have many good Cy finishes) and his win total will probably be low. Unless WAR becomes *the* be all end all stat for a lot of voters, I think he falls short.
   128. Rally Posted: April 30, 2018 at 10:22 AM (#5662804)
Utley's got 66.1 WAR. and while his counting stats are going to put him in a big hole, the idea that he won't even merit discussion whenever he gets on the ballot seems silly. WAR isn't everything to voters, but it matters to an increasingly bigger number of voters today, compared to when guys like Grich and Whitaker were ignored. Sneaking over 2,000 hits could help with appearances.


Grich
71 WAR
6890 AB
1833 hits
224 HR
104 SB
125 OPS+
82 Def runs

Utley
66 WAR
6750 AB
1867 hits
259 HR
153 SB
118 OPS+
142 Def runs

Utley is a left-handed, shaved Grich.

   129. Booey Posted: April 30, 2018 at 10:44 AM (#5662811)
Utley is a left-handed, shaved Grich.


ALL OVER?!

TMI, man. TMI.
   130. DanG Posted: April 30, 2018 at 11:37 AM (#5662840)
the career war of every hofer(batting war) who was playing in 1980 and their numbers up until then.

Rk             Player WAR/pos   Age    G    PA    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB  SB   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
1    Carl Yastrzemski    94.7 21
-40 2967 12642 1689 3109 586  57 419 1663 1683 168 .288 .382 .469 .851
2          Joe Morgan    88.6 19
-36 2186  9455 1413 2127 373  90 224  939 1559 625 .275 .395 .433 .829
3        Johnny Bench    72.9 19
-32 1877  7705 1001 1811 342  22 356 1259  813  67 .267 .344 .482 .826
4           Rod Carew    69.9 21
-34 1889  8085 1102 2394 354 100  80  836  745 312 .333 .395 .444 .839
5      Reggie Jackson    69.9 21
-34 1924  7941 1145 1874 345  41 410 1231  934 212 .273 .364 .514 .879
6      Willie McCovey    64.5 21
-42 2588  9692 1229 2211 353  46 521 1555 1345  26 .270 .374 .515 .889
7        Mike Schmidt    59.1 22
-30 1234  5158  778 1104 208  39 283  787  778 129 .259 .375 .525 .901
8     Willie Stargell    57.5 22
-40 2248  8876 1186 2198 415  55 472 1514  922  17 .282 .361 .531 .892
9          Tony Perez    52.0 22
-38 2313  9441 1153 2399 443  70 348 1462  793  48 .282 .343 .473 .816
10       George Brett    45.6 20
-27 1002  4330  619 1257 244  82  98  579  319 111 .319 .368 .497 .864
11       Carlton Fisk    39.5 21
-32 1078  4353  627 1097 207  33 162  568  389  61 .284 .356 .481 .837
12      Dave Winfield    32.0 21
-28 1117  4512  599 1134 179  39 154  626  463 133 .284 .357 .464 .821
13        Gary Carter    28.7 20
-26  850  3344  406  787 135  16 126  444  321  28 .267 .339 .452 .790
14           Jim Rice    26.5 21
-27  926  3998  596 1124 171  55 196  669  266  47 .307 .356 .545 .901
15        Robin Yount    22.0 18
-24  988  4142  499 1050 193  38  57  390  209  98 .274 .310 .389 .699
16       Andre Dawson    18.7 21
-25  626  2640  343  676 119  37  86  323  140 119 .278 .321 .463 .784
17       Eddie Murray    16.9 21
-24  638  2726  356  712 127   9 111  398  244  23 .291 .353 .486 .839
18       Paul Molitor    12.2 21
-23  376  1713  242  467  82  22  24  144  115  97 .300 .349 .428 .777
19        Ozzie Smith    10.0 23
-25  473  2029  213  416  53  17   1  108  155 125 .233 .296 .283 .579
20   Rickey Henderson     7.9 20
-21  247  1120  160  275  35   7  10   79  151 133 .292 .392 .376 .767
21      Alan Trammell     7.7 19
-22  446  1724  230  423  46  15  17  149  161  32 .280 .348 .364 .712[/pre   

And here is the list of pitchers from that same year.
[code]Rk       Player  WAR   Age   G  CG SHO   W   L  SV     IP   BB   SO  ERA  FIP    K%   BBERA+
1          Tom Seaver 88.9 22-35 481 202  53 245 141   1 3622.2 1008 2988 2.60 2.77 20.6%  7.0%  136
2       Gaylord Perry 88.6 23
-41 692 291  52 289 230  10 4796.1 1252 3276 2.96 2.96 16.7%  6.4%  121
3         Phil Niekro 82.5 25
-41 648 217  38 233 209  29 4044.0 1218 2578 3.14 3.40 15.4%  7.3%  122
4      Fergie Jenkins 78.4 22
-37 578 261  47 259 194   7 4010.0  843 2899 3.28 3.20 17.8%  5.2%  118
5       Steve Carlton 67.7 20
-35 525 213  45 249 169   1 3789.1 1292 2969 3.02 3.08 19.0%  8.3%  122
6          Jim Palmer 62.7 19
-34 481 198  51 241 132   3 3499.1 1166 2036 2.74 3.40 14.3%  8.2%  129
7       Bert Blyleven 59.6 19
-29 387 150  41 156 141   0 2841.1  770 2250 2.96 2.84 19.4%  6.6%  126
8          Don Sutton 50.8 21
-35 534 156  52 230 175   5 3729.0  966 2652 3.07 3.03 17.5%  6.4%  111
9          Nolan Ryan 45.1 19
-33 431 173  44 178 169   3 2925.0 1744 3109 3.18 3.05 25.114.1%  110
10   Dennis Eckersley 30.1 20
-25 201  68  13  89  64   3 1346.0  396  976 3.29 3.57 17.5%  7.1%  123
11       Rich Gossage 24.5 20
-28 423  16   0  61  61 134 1009.1  452  836 3.06 3.19 19.810.7%  123
12       Bruce Sutter 18.5 23
-27 300   0   0  32  30 133  493.0  149  494 2.39 2.32 24.9%  7.5%  171
13     Rollie Fingers 17.2 21
-33 767   4   2 101 101 244 1442.1  427 1103 2.97 2.94 18.7%  7.3%  115
14        Jack Morris  9.8 22
-25  98  21   3  37  28   0  599.1  218  301 3.87 3.96 11.9%  8.6%  108 


There is a flaw with this list though, because I'm supposed to have 36 names and instead I have only 35. Found the flaw, I used a game criteria to separate the pitchers from hitters, and that managed to exempt Tim Raines who only had 21 games up to that point

A few comments on this list of hall of famers playing in 1980:

• The total of 36 players is less than there should be, given the Hall’s normal rate of representation for an era. That’s because, until this year, everyone on the list was elected by the BBWAA. Trammell and Morris became the first VC-elected players to retire after 1974.
• The Hall of Merit has elected 45 players active in 1980. This is much more in line with the HOF’s historic rate of election.
• Four hall of famers active in 1980 are not in the HoM: Perez, Rice, Sutter, and Morris. By my count, 13 HoMers are not in the HOF: Rose, Grich, Whitaker, Simmons, Hernandez, Minoso, Nettles, R. Smith, Dewey Evans, Darrell Evans, Stieb, Reuschel, and Randolph.
   131. Ithaca2323 Posted: April 30, 2018 at 11:49 AM (#5662849)
Utley is a left-handed, shaved Grich


With one notable exception: It's not 1992 anymore.

It's going to be a nearly totally different voting body that's going to be considering Utley, and stats like WAR, which couldn't help Grich, are more and more mainstream every year. I'm not saying Utley's going to get elected. I just don't see what looking at voting results from what, 30-35 years ago (by the time Utley's on the ballot) is supposed to tell us.
   132. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 30, 2018 at 11:57 AM (#5662854)
These I believe are the true comps, and I'll buy the 50/50 thing.

50/50 assuming Acuna has a monster rookie year, which he hasn't done yet.

What are his odds of getting into that 135-150 OPS+ range? I'd say a lot less than 50%. The projections have him at 105.
   133. bunyon Posted: April 30, 2018 at 01:21 PM (#5662969)
It's going to be a nearly totally different voting body that's going to be considering Utley, and stats like WAR, which couldn't help Grich, are more and more mainstream every year. I'm not saying Utley's going to get elected. I just don't see what looking at voting results from what, 30-35 years ago (by the time Utley's on the ballot) is supposed to tell us.

This is a great discussion. Thanks to everyone posting. I don't bring such analysis but a question related to Ithaca's post in 131.

Should we assume representation will continue at "normal" trends? It seems to me HOF voters have been trending more selective with a mix of traditional voters not liking SABR candidates and SABR voters, a growing group, not liking traditional metrics. So you get two groups arguing against players and only the true greats who can satisfy both are going to be elected until, and unless, the older voters "retire". Shrinking ballot life to ten years will hurt that.

I know we haven't had much Vets Committee action on newer players and my view of increased selectivity is clouded by players not making it because of PEDs.

I guess my question is: how valid is it to assume 40 HOFers are on the field at any given moment?
   134. Rally Posted: April 30, 2018 at 01:40 PM (#5662987)
It's going to be a nearly totally different voting body that's going to be considering Utley, and stats like WAR, which couldn't help Grich, are more and more mainstream every year. I'm not saying Utley's going to get elected. I just don't see what looking at voting results from what, 30-35 years ago (by the time Utley's on the ballot) is supposed to tell us.


Looking at last year, the kind of voters who might vote for Utley are the voters who considered Scott Rolen. It's nice that Rolen got 10% instead of being one and done, but he's not getting in by BBWAA. I think that is Utley's 1st ballot ceiling.

I am not sure how the voters will treat his 142 defensive runs. Without them, he's not a great candidate. Voters who are skeptical but open minded to the numbers can get behind Rolen's defensive rating because it matched the visuals, he won 8 gold gloves. Utley on the other hand, did not win even one. Instead of taking the numbers at face value they might wonder if he was benefitting from shifts or something.

Out of curiosity, who was winning the gold gloves during the years of Utley's best defensive numbers (2005-2010)?

Luis Castillo
Orlando Hudson
Hudson
Brandon Phillips
Hudson
Phillips

Their career DRS at 2B:

Castillo -5 / 14375 inn
Hudson +98/10891 inn
Phillips +47/ 15876 inn

Utley is +134 at 2B in 14715 innings. I'm not saying these numbers are wrong, but voters might be skeptical about them. Voters who are not going to try and put the defensive metrics into perspective are the kind of voters who wouldn't vote for Utley anyway.
   135. Swoboda is freedom Posted: April 30, 2018 at 01:49 PM (#5663002)
Their career DRS at 2B:

Castillo -5 / 14375 inn
Hudson +98/10891 inn
Phillips +47/ 15876 inn


I think you need to look at the year they won. All of them were at least pretty good on defense and dropped off. Hudson was a really good second baseman.
   136. Ithaca2323 Posted: April 30, 2018 at 02:42 PM (#5663047)
Looking at last year, the kind of voters who might vote for Utley are the voters who considered Scott Rolen. It's nice that Rolen got 10% instead of being one and done, but he's not getting in by BBWAA. I think that is Utley's 1st ballot ceiling.


Yes, but that's on a still crowded ballot with lots of PED names. I think we're going to have a cleared backlog for the most part by the time Utley is on.

Additionally, while the voters also didn't appreciate Utley, they gave him more MVP love.

I'm not saying he's deserving, but he wasn't even on the list, which included guys who have accomplished much less
   137. DavidFoss Posted: April 30, 2018 at 02:57 PM (#5663063)
Additionally, while the voters also didn't appreciate Utley, they gave him more MVP love.

I get the impression people don't think Utley played long enough to be taken seriously as an HOF candidate. He was only great and healthy at the same time from 2005-2009. In many ways Utley, feels like an Al-Rosen-type of player except that he already has more than double Rosen's career value. You have to really study his defense and baserunning contributions to understand where all of that value is coming from.
   138. Rally Posted: April 30, 2018 at 03:18 PM (#5663081)
I think you need to look at the year they won. All of them were at least pretty good on defense and dropped off. Hudson was a really good second baseman.


2005: Castillo +7, Utley +20
2006: Hudson +13, Utley +18
2007: Hudson +17, Utley +18
2008: Phillips +13, Utley +30
2009: Hudson +6, Utley +12
2010: Phillips +10, Utley +17

Over 6 years, Utley +115, composite NL gold glovers +66
   139. TJ Posted: April 30, 2018 at 03:45 PM (#5663093)
I root for Justin Verlander to make it to the Hall for two reasons:

1. He's long been a favorite player of mine.
2. He would be the only HOFer whose wife has been on the cover of Sports Illustrated more times than he.
   140. SoSH U at work Posted: April 30, 2018 at 03:52 PM (#5663101)
2. He would be the only HOFer whose wife has been on the cover of Sports Illustrated more times than he.


Nomar can only dream what might have been.

* Edit, I think he and Mrs. Nomar tied.

   141. Ithaca2323 Posted: April 30, 2018 at 04:04 PM (#5663110)
I get the impression people don't think Utley played long enough to be taken seriously as an HOF candidate. He was only great and healthy at the same time from 2005-2009. In many ways Utley, feels like an Al-Rosen-type of player except that he already has more than double Rosen's career value. You have to really study his defense and baserunning contributions to understand where all of that value is coming from.


Right, and maybe people won't.

But this was a list that included players who had yet to even play in the majors. Utley may not be the best candidate, but he's certainly deserving of the discussion.
   142. Booey Posted: April 30, 2018 at 04:22 PM (#5663123)
But this was a list that included players who had yet to even play in the majors. Utley may not be the best candidate, but he's certainly deserving of the discussion.


The article wasn't a list of the most deserving players, though, but rather the author just picking the 40 he felt were most likely. And obviously with that many you need to take some real hail Mary's with the young guys.
   143. Ithaca2323 Posted: April 30, 2018 at 04:44 PM (#5663134)
But rather the author just picking the 40 he felt were most likely. And obviously with that many you need to take some real hail Mary's with the young guys.


Yes, and I'm saying it's odd that a SS with 66 WAR is seen as less likely as a guy who has yet to make the majors, or Strasburg, who is about to turn 30 and has just 25 WAR and 86 wins.
   144. TJ Posted: April 30, 2018 at 04:46 PM (#5663135)
Yes, and I'm saying it's odd that a SS with 66 WAR is seen as less likely as a guy who has yet to make the majors, or Strasburg, who is about to turn 30 and has just 25 WAR and 86 wins.


Strasburg is about to turn 30!?! Thanks, Ith, for making me feel old...
   145. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 30, 2018 at 04:56 PM (#5663141)
Scherzer seems like he's in bus mode to me, or at least Licecum mode. That third Cy young is going to shift things for a lot of voters, he's going to have elite K numbers, and while the WAR probably won't get into the Mussina/Schilling level, it should get respectable enough, that it's not going to hold him back. And he's got a chance to add to it as well.

Given his start, Scherzer has a decent shot at winning his 3rd straight Cy Young this season, 4th overall. That may not quite put him in hit by a bus territory, but I think it would move most voters into the presumptive support camp. They'd have to find a reason to vote against him, not justify a vote for him.
   146. Ithaca2323 Posted: April 30, 2018 at 05:29 PM (#5663163)
Given his start, Scherzer has a decent shot at winning his 3rd straight Cy Young this season, 4th overall. That may not quite put him in hit by a bus territory, but I think it would move most voters into the presumptive support camp. They'd have to find a reason to vote against him, not justify a vote for him.


Yeah, it's going to be nearly impossible to vote against a Scherzer with 4 Cys. I mean, that's just such rare air. He'd have to basically pull a full Lincecum, and go backwards. And even then...4 Cys...
   147. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: April 30, 2018 at 06:57 PM (#5663185)
bb-reference lists it as Blefary


No ####### way. I would have sworn on a stack of Bibles that it was Belafry.
   148. Baldrick Posted: April 30, 2018 at 07:59 PM (#5663207)
Yes, and I'm saying it's odd that a SS with 66 WAR is seen as less likely as a guy who has yet to make the majors, or Strasburg, who is about to turn 30 and has just 25 WAR and 86 wins.

Utley's career is (basically) over and is pretty unlikely to result in him entering the HOF. I suppose it's possible, but it's pretty darn hard to see it happening. A guy like Strasburg, or a kid like Acuña, still has the potential to take a step forward and build a far sturdier case.

I'm not saying it's definitely the right call, but I don't think it's unreasonable to say that, for example, Utley probably has a 5% chance with very little variance, while Strasburg might be more like 10% with a ton of variance.
   149. SoSH U at work Posted: April 30, 2018 at 08:44 PM (#5663235)
I'm not saying it's definitely the right call, but I don't think it's unreasonable to say that, for example, Utley probably has a 5% chance with very little variance, while Strasburg might be more like 10% with a ton of variance.


I think Utley's got a better chance than that. Not through the BBWAA, of course, but I can see him eventually reaching Trammell levels of support in the BBWAA vote (I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar climb for Rolen) and using that as a springboard the way Tram did.

   150. The Duke Posted: April 30, 2018 at 08:58 PM (#5663248)
Grich and Utley and Kevin Brown are going to be the players that define what it takes to almost make the Hall. Someone has got to be on the other side of the line. Of course I thought Ted Simmons was that guy too and he came 1 vote short last year. It was a very simmons-friendly group of voters though so he may end being the guy who got closest to the Hall and didn’t make it. One vote.

Damn you Jack Morris!
   151. Jacob Posted: April 30, 2018 at 10:14 PM (#5663344)
Utley's signed through 2019 so he should clear 2,000 hits. He finished in the top ten in MVP three times(0.73 Career Shares). He hit 7 WS HRs. He's got a nickname & the IASIP thing. I think it'll take a while, but he'll get in. He's got a better chance than Kinsler(Bootsie) with 0.07 Career Shares.
   152. cardsfanboy Posted: April 30, 2018 at 11:23 PM (#5663399)

Should we assume representation will continue at "normal" trends? It seems to me HOF voters have been trending more selective with a mix of traditional voters not liking SABR candidates and SABR voters, a growing group, not liking traditional metrics. So you get two groups arguing against players and only the true greats who can satisfy both are going to be elected until, and unless, the older voters "retire". Shrinking ballot life to ten years will hurt that.

I know we haven't had much Vets Committee action on newer players and my view of increased selectivity is clouded by players not making it because of PEDs.

I guess my question is: how valid is it to assume 40 HOFers are on the field at any given moment?


I think it's fairly valid to assume that the continued rate of induction will continue, if not ramp up, as the newer voters aren't beholden to older patterns and tendencies. As far as the vets committee, they put in Trammel and Morris in the first shot that they got, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see the vet committee rules make it easier for Simmons, Grich and others to get in also.
   153. QLE Posted: May 01, 2018 at 05:16 AM (#5663439)
It seems to me HOF voters have been trending more selective with a mix of traditional voters not liking SABR candidates and SABR voters, a growing group, not liking traditional metrics.


Except that the BBWAA has actually inducted candidates at a more rapid clip over the last five years than at any point since the first years of the HOF, and have been using more ballot slots than we've seen with any consistency since the 1950s.

Looking at last year, the kind of voters who might vote for Utley are the voters who considered Scott Rolen


Or, for that matter, Andruw Jones, who has a batting line that, while not identical (far more home runs, worse batting average), is still comparable, played on a dynasty that the BBWAA loves, didn't get a reputation on national television as a leg-snapping thug, and was far more respected when he played for his defense than Utley has been- and still only made it to a second ballot due to the kindness of the private voters, most of whom will probably have lost their ballot rights before Utley makes the ballot.

a SS with 66 WAR


When did he shift?

(I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar climb for Rolen)


Same here- I have a feeling he was hurt this time around in part by the glut overall, in part because a superior player at his position was also on the ballot, and in part by the mad rush to Vlad Guerrero. The first is becoming less of an issue (note that, on the coming ballot, the chief new position player is one who almost certainly will be severely penalized for spending his career at Coors Field), the second won't be an issue again until Beltre becomes eligible, and the third is clearly off the table. As a result, I suspect Rolen will be gaining in the coming ballots.
   154. Ithaca2323 Posted: May 01, 2018 at 08:05 AM (#5663458)
When did he shift?


Gah, you're right, that was a stupid typo on my part.

But I think the point holds true for 2b. And as you point out, Rolen earned his 10% on an incredibly crowded ballot, and I think Utley won't face that. I think once we get past this glut, we're going to see more of those types of candidates gain steam and possibly get elected.

Strasburg is going to need to pull a Scherzer to get in, at this point. It's certainly possible, but given the choice, I'd bank on the changing electorate recognizing Utley's value more than Strasburg discovering an entirely different level after turning 30 (and staying healthy)
   155. Rally Posted: May 01, 2018 at 09:33 AM (#5663492)
When did he shift?


For right handed pull hitters, duh
   156. bunyon Posted: May 01, 2018 at 11:15 AM (#5663581)
I think it's fairly valid to assume that the continued rate of induction will continue, if not ramp up, as the newer voters aren't beholden to older patterns and tendencies. As far as the vets committee, they put in Trammel and Morris in the first shot that they got, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see the vet committee rules make it easier for Simmons, Grich and others to get in also.

You may be right. But I'm not sure an uptick in rate given a bumper crop of inner circlers and slam dunks (and they've excluded several obvious ones due to PEDs) suggests they're actually less selective.

My gut says that reading comments from analysts that it will be harder and harder for dominant pitchers to make it. If Scherzer is going to have trouble, I don't see many coming in (at least that's my read of many of the above posts). If players have to meet SABR standards AND traditional standards, it will be harder, not easier, to get in.

   157. Booey Posted: May 01, 2018 at 01:25 PM (#5663717)
My gut says that reading comments from analysts that it will be harder and harder for dominant pitchers to make it. If Scherzer is going to have trouble, I don't see many coming in (at least that's my read of many of the above posts). If players have to meet SABR standards AND traditional standards, it will be harder, not easier, to get in.


I think voters will adjust their standards for starting pitchers a little bit, but I don't think they're going to have to do anything drastic (300 or even 250 wins was never really the standard in the past either). My guess is that the standards for serious HOF consideration will be something like (in no particular order): #1) 200 wins, #2) an ERA well below 4.00, and #3) a peak as one of the clear best pitchers in the game (CYA contention) for at least a few years. Halladay hits all three of those, so he's in. Hudson and Buehrle didn't have the peak, so they're out. I also suspect that Hamels and Lester will fall short due to the peak qualifier (neither has done very well in CYA voting). Colon fails both #2 and #3 (despite that undeserved CYA). That leaves the following as players I expect to get in as long as they last long enough to reach 200 wins - Verlander (near lock), Scherzer (very probable), Sale, Felix (looking less likely each year), Greinke, and Kluber (probably started too late). Probably a few others I'm forgetting.

Exceptions:

- Kershaw. His peak is so dominant that he's already a lock, even if he broke down and never reached 200.

- Sabathia. His ERA is hovering right on the borderline of qualifier #2, but he passes #3 and he's blowing so far past #1 that I think he'll get in, even if it takes a while. 250 wins, 3000 k, with a CYA and few other high finishes is just too much to ignore.

- Bumgarner. He hasn't had the super dominant peak yet, but if he returns to form and lasts long enough to pass 200 wins, I think his postseason performance will push him over the edge.
   158. DanG Posted: May 01, 2018 at 02:46 PM (#5663761)
But the main issue is that almost no SPs will have "long" careers by HoF standards any more. The voters will have the choice between changing the standards or never electing another SP. (Barring a sea change in usage back to old patterns.)
IP leaders, debut 1992+:

Player              IP ERA+  WAR WAA/   W   L From   To  GS
Bartolo Colon   3346.2  108 48.6 18.0 241 176 1997 2018 532
CC Sabathia     3343.1  118 60.5 29.2 239 146 2001 2018 514
Andy Pettitte   3316.0  117 60.7 29.9 256 153 1995 2013 521
Mark Buehrle    3283.1  117 60.3 29.5 214 160 2000 2015 493
Tim Wakefield   3226.1  105 34.5  3.9 200 180 1992 2011 463
Livan Hernandez 3189.0   95 25.0 
-0.5 178 177 1996 2012 474
Tim Hudson      3126.2  120 56.9 30.1 222 133 1999 2015 479
John Lackey     2840.1  110 38.4 12.3 188 147 2002 2017 446
Javier Vazquez  2840.0  105 43.6 19.5 165 160 1998 2011 443
Pedro Martinez  2827.1  154 86.2 61.5 219 100 1992 2009 409
Roy Halladay    2749.1  131 65.5 40.5 203 105 1998 2013 390 

Verlander may be among these by the end of this season. He currently has 2585 IP.
   159. DanG Posted: May 01, 2018 at 03:28 PM (#5663795)
I'm not sure an uptick in rate given a bumper crop of inner circlers and slam dunks (and they've excluded several obvious ones due to PEDs) suggests they're actually less selective.

My gut says that reading comments from analysts that it will be harder and harder for dominant pitchers to make it. If Scherzer is going to have trouble, I don't see many coming in (at least that's my read of many of the above posts). If players have to meet SABR standards AND traditional standards, it will be harder, not easier, to get in.

The new retirees entering the HOF ballot in the decade 2010-19 are of historic quality. Normally, the BBWAA will elect at a rate of 1.6 players per year. Already in that decade they have elected 17, with more on deck: Rivera, Halladay, Edgar, Mussina...along with 6 or 7 players blackballed due to PEDs. Here are the 44 most prominent candidates entering the ballot in this decade:

H 2010 Alomar R
o 2010 Martinez E
H 2010 Larkin B
o 2010 McGriff F
- 2011 Palmeiro R
H 2011 Bagwell J
o 2011 Walker L
- 2011 Brown K
- 2012 Williams B
o 2013 Bonds Ba
o 2013 Clemens R
H 2013 Piazza M
o 2013 Schilling C
o 2013 Sosa S
H 2013 Biggio C
- 2013 Lofton K
H 2014 Maddux G
H 2014 Thomas F
H 2014 Glavine T
o 2014 Mussina M
o 2014 Kent J
H 2015 Johnson Ra
H 2015 Martinez P
H 2015 Smoltz J
o 2015 Sheffield G
- 2015 Garciaparra N
H 2016 Griffey K
H 2016 Hoffman T
o 2016 Wagner B
- 2016 Edmonds J
H 2017 Rodriguez I
o 2017 Ramirez M
H 2017 Guerrero V
- 2017 Posada J
H 2018 Jones Ch
H 2018 Thome J
o 2018 Jones An
o 2018 Rolen S
o 2018 Vizquel O
2019 Rivera M
2019 Helton T
2019 Halladay R
2019 Tejada M
2019 Pettitte A

For comparison, look at the five years prior to this, the leading new candidates 2005-09:

H 2005 Boggs W
HoM 2006 Clark W
- 2006 Belle A
- 2006 Hershiser O
H 2007 Ripken C
H 2007 Gwynn T
HoM 2007 McGwire M
HoM 2007 Saberhagen B
H 2008 Raines T
H 2009 Henderson R
HoM 2009 Cone D

Finally, the upcoming four years. With ARod being blackballed, there's only three HOFers here. By 2023 the ballot glut is totally cleared out:

2020 Jeter D
2020 Giambi J
2020 Abreu B
2021 Hudson T
2022 Rodriguez A
2022 Ortiz D
2022 Teixeira M
2022 Rollins J
2022 Nathan J
2022 Wright D
2023 Beltran C
2023 Holliday M
2023 Rodriguez F
   160. QLE Posted: May 01, 2018 at 09:41 PM (#5664075)
Normally, the BBWAA will elect at a rate of 1.6 players per year. Already in that decade they have elected 17, with more on deck: Rivera, Halladay, Edgar, Mussina...along with 6 or 7 players blackballed due to PEDs.


Well, 17 of the players to first make the ballot between 2010 and 2018- they also inducted Dawson, Blyleven, and Raines from the players who first made the ballot prior to 2010, meaning that the rate for the 2010s will be 2.0 players per year at minimum, and more likely higher than that.
   161. DanG Posted: May 02, 2018 at 07:58 AM (#5664218)
For comparison to #158, here are the IP leaders, debuting 1984-91:

Player             IP ERA+   WAR WAAFrom   To  GS   W   L
Greg Maddux    5008.1  132 104.9 65.3 1986 2008 740 355 227
Roger Clemens  4916.2  143 139.0 94.3 1984 2007 707 354 184
Tom Glavine    4413.1  118  74.1 39.1 1987 2008 682 305 203
Randy Johnson  4135.1  135 103.6 67.4 1988 2009 603 303 166
Jamie Moyer    4074.0  103  50.0 12.7 1986 2012 638 269 209
Mike Mussina   3562.2  123  82.9 48.9 1991 2008 536 270 153
John Smoltz    3473.0  125  66.5 38.0 1988 2009 481 213 155
David Wells    3439.0  108  53.8 22.2 1987 2007 489 239 157
Kenny Rogers   3302.2  107  50.7 19.6 1989 2008 474 219 156
Curt Schilling 3261.0  127  80.6 54.0 1988 2007 436 216 146
Kevin Brown    3256.1  127  68.4 40.3 1986 2005 476 211 144 
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