Fear No. 1: The older players on the roster show their age or brittleness
This was the most common worry we encountered among Yankees fans. How did we handle it?
We cut the contributions of Andy Pettitte and Hiroki Kuroda in half, turning Pettitte from a projected 3-WAR pitcher into a 1.5-WAR pitcher and Kuroda from 4-WAR to 2-WAR.
We changed the 2.5 WAR we were going to assign Mariano Rivera to a 1.5.
We took the 2.5 WAR we gave in a best-case to Kevin Youkilis and made it 1.0.
We eliminated the positive contributions from Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, and Ichiro Suzuki, and had them as replacement-level players.
What’s the worst-case scenario?
For everything else related to player value, we went with the same numbers from our best-case piece. In other words, Robinson Cano has another MVP-caliber season. Brett Gardner turns out to be fine. Ivan Nova and David Phelps make respectable contributions. And so forth.
Applying all of that, the Yankees collective total comes out to 24 Wins Above Replacement.
Over the last 10 seasons, 37 teams have accumulated from 22 to 26 Wins Above Replacement from their players.
Five finished with winning records, the best being an 86-75 mark by the 2008 Houston Astros. But 13 finished with at least 90 losses, including the 99-loss Seattle Mariners of 2004.
The 37 teams averaged 75 wins for the season.
That enough to scare you, Yankees fans?
Posted: March 28, 2013 at 01:11 PM | 11 comment(s)
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