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Wednesday, February 01, 2012

ESPN: Mark Teixeira ... $180 million bunter?

Hell, just pull a couple of bunts.

gt

In order to beat the shift, Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira claims he’s going to do the previously unfathomable: bunt.

“I’ve been so against it my entire career, but I might lay down a few bunts,” Teixeira conceded Tuesday night. “If I can beat the shift that way, that’s important. “
Teixeira hit just .191 this season as a left-handed hitter with no men on, according to Mark Simon from ESPN Stats & Info. So clearly, he’s going to have to make some changes.

It’s a decision Teixeira says he made on his own.

“Kevin [Long] and I made the decision of squaring myself up, and so when I’m open, I see the pull side a lot better, and that right field porch is just so enticing at Yankee Stadium,” Teixeira said. “I’m not going to complain about hitting 39 home runs, but I’d love to bring my [.248] average up, and it’s very simple, it’s left-handed singles.

Repoz Posted: February 01, 2012 at 12:17 AM | 36 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, projections, sabermetrics, yankees

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   1. Dale Sams Posted: February 01, 2012 at 01:07 AM (#4050922)
Avoid an out, get on base. If that means bunting enough so they stop shifting, then hell yeah. I just wish papi would try ot more.
   2. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: February 01, 2012 at 01:30 AM (#4050926)
Avoid an out, get on base. If that means bunting enough so they stop shifting, then hell yeah. I just wish papi would try ot more.

Uhhh, Papi's OBP was nearly .400 last year, an OPS+ of 154 is not really a sign of a guy struggling at the plate. And his OBP against lefties was a very healthy .423. What NY needs to do is to get there own version of A-gon to show Tex how to hit the ball the other way occasionally.
   3. Best Regards, Larry M. Posted: February 01, 2012 at 02:02 AM (#4050932)
Yes, what they Yankees need to do is add one of the best hitters in baseball. It's all so simple!
   4. ptodd Posted: February 01, 2012 at 02:28 AM (#4050940)
Tex has probably seen his last All Star game unless he gets that average and OBP up.

Except for the HR totals he appears to be in a decline. Maybe it's a physical issue and he bounces back, or maybe he should change his swing back to what it was, but right now, he is not intimidating a lot of pitchers, especially away from YS3 and against RHP'ers.

   5. cardsfanboy Posted: February 01, 2012 at 02:34 AM (#4050942)
Yes, what they Yankees need to do is add one of the best hitters in baseball. It's all so simple!


They could always get Ryan Howard, who by all accounts is one of the best opposite field hitters in baseball....and he's not one of the best hitters in baseball :)

Tex has probably seen his last All Star game unless he gets that average and OBP up.

I guess Pujols is going to become the perennial favorite in the AL, but I find it hard to believe that a Yankee is pretty much assured of never seeing another all star game. (now if you meant deserved all star appearance, that I can see)
   6. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: February 01, 2012 at 02:42 AM (#4050943)
I guess Pujols is going to become the perennial favorite in the AL, but I find it hard to believe that a Yankee is pretty much assured of never seeing another all star game. (now if you meant deserved all star appearance, that I can see)


Assured? Nah. But when you consider that Pujols has probably become the perennial favorite in the vote, Gonzalez and Fielder are both younger and the Yankees will likely not have any trouble fielding all-stars at other positions, it wouldn't be a shocker if Teixeira never makes another all-star team, regardless whether he's in serious decline or if he reverts to close to his normal level of production.

Oh, and if he can lay down a bunt with any degree of effectiveness against the shift, by all means he should do it. Besides not looking a gift base in the mouth, it may force teams to cheat more and thus open up space when he does swing away.
   7. Dale Sams Posted: February 01, 2012 at 03:22 AM (#4050948)
Uhhh, Papi's OBP was nearly .400 last year, an OPS+ of 154 is not really a sign of a guy struggling at the plate. And his OBP against lefties was a very healthy .423


You are Papi's Arbitration Rep, and I claim my 5 pounds.
   8. RollingWave Posted: February 01, 2012 at 04:40 AM (#4050955)
Well he's likely to at least run better than a Ortiz / Giambi, so I guess the odds of him pulling it off seems better. if he can succeed at a 40-50%ish rate or so why the hell not really.

   9. Brian White Posted: February 01, 2012 at 07:46 AM (#4050960)
if he can succeed at a 40-50%ish rate or so why the hell not really.


I have to wonder what the success rate of people bunting against the shift actually is - I bet it's pretty high. I rarely see it, but I don't think I've ever seen it NOT work.
   10. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: February 01, 2012 at 09:58 AM (#4050998)
What NY needs to do is to get there own version of A-gon to show Tex how to hit the ball the other way occasionally.
Can we talk about how great Adrian Gonzalez is? He's super great. You can't shift Adrian Gonzalez, cause he doesn't need to bunt to beat the shift - all he has to do is hit a grounder the other way, which he can do on any pitch you feel like throwing to Adrian Gonzalez. Because he is the perfect ballplayer.

Really, if Adrian Gonzalez could run at all, he would be the perfect ballplayer. Sadly, he's slower than ten Lasordas.
   11. Greg (U)K Posted: February 01, 2012 at 10:26 AM (#4051012)
I have to wonder what the success rate of people bunting against the shift actually is - I bet it's pretty high. I rarely see it, but I don't think I've ever seen it NOT work.

Part of the success rate is probably getting the actual bunt in play. For a guy like Teixeira I assume that's more than half the battle.
   12. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: February 01, 2012 at 10:32 AM (#4051020)
Part of the success rate is probably getting the actual bunt in play. For a guy like Teixeira I assume that's more than half the battle.
Yup. And since you can only bunt with less than two strikes, you have to compare the quality of outcomes on the bunt to the quality of outcomes not overall against the shift, but with less than two strikes against the shift.

Teixeira, last year, hit 310/670 with less than two strikes, and 186/324 with two strikes.

In theory, what hitters should be working on isn't bunting, it's grounding the ball to the opposite field. You can do that on any count. This must be harder than it looks, though, since I've only seen Gonzalez do it consistently successfully against the shift.
   13. Old Man James Posted: February 01, 2012 at 11:07 AM (#4051055)
In theory, what hitters should be working on isn't bunting, it's grounding the ball to the opposite field. You can do that on any count. This must be harder than it looks, though, since I've only seen Gonzalez do it consistently successfully against the shift.


One thing that is often missed in these discussions is they don't just put the shift on, they pitch in a manner to try and get you to hit into it. Try bunting or going the other way when they keep running it in on your hands.
   14. Double-Spin Mechanic Posted: February 01, 2012 at 11:47 AM (#4051093)
One thing that is often missed in these discussions is they don't just put the shift on, they pitch in a manner to try and get you to hit into it. Try bunting or going the other way when they keep running it in on your hands.
\

Derek Jeter has been hitting inside pitches the opposite way since Tex was in junior high. Maybe they could talk.
   15. Poster Nutbag Posted: February 01, 2012 at 11:58 AM (#4051107)
Hell, if Jack Cust can do it, I don't see why Tex can't.
   16. micker17 Posted: February 01, 2012 at 12:45 PM (#4051157)
It's taken Tex 2 years, but he's finally agreed to do the obvious. He just needs to bunt a few times a week to keep the defense honest. If he's really willing to do this, it could raise his average back into the .290's. You can't play an extra man in the bleachers, so Tex's HR total never suffered, but his BA took quite a beating.

It's wonderful for us to suggest that he should just relearn everything he knows and hit to the opposite field, but that's not realistic. It is realistic to believe that a MLB pro athlete can learn how to bunt.

I watch a lot of Yankee games, and I can't even begin to tell you how many laser beams Tex hit between 1st and 2nd that were played by the 2nd baseman in right field and turned into outs.

Giambi was never willing to bunt, and became a .250 hitter also for the same reason.

With Pujols, AGone & Fielder now in the AL, 1st base at the All Star game is a bit crowded.
   17. Russ Posted: February 01, 2012 at 01:34 PM (#4051225)
It is realistic to believe that a MLB pro athlete can learn how to bunt.


I find it sad that an MLB pro athlete has to learn how to bunt. I mean, I'm not a Fundamentals First guy by any stretch of the imagination, but this is your job. You're paid X bajillion dollars per year, you should be able to do routine tasks (like bunt) even if you haven't been asked to in any games recently.

And please remove yourself from the grassy space in front of my home.

   18. Dan Posted: February 01, 2012 at 02:18 PM (#4051288)
I find it sad that an MLB pro athlete has to learn how to bunt. I mean, I'm not a Fundamentals First guy by any stretch of the imagination, but this is your job. You're paid X bajillion dollars per year, you should be able to do routine tasks (like bunt) even if you haven't been asked to in any games recently.


Should Teixeira also be able to turn double play balls at SS and throw a curveball? Those are routine tasks for baseball players.

He's a power hitter who plays first base. He never needed to know how to bunt until they started over shifting against him when he hits left handed.
   19. micker17 Posted: February 01, 2012 at 03:24 PM (#4051383)
Actually, Teixeira probably could turn a decent double play, although his curveball may be bush league.

No one is asking Teixeira to develope the skills of Phil Rizzuto or Rod Carew. He does not need to bunt with backspin, with acuracy, or with any artistry at all. He merely needs to bunt in the general direction of the vacated 3b with as much force as he can muster.

If every National League pitcher can master this skill, I really have faith that an all around athlete like Teixeira can as well.

It's good to know that he recognizes the neccessity of the situation, even if it is a bit humbling to have to be a bunter for a player of his type.
   20. vortex of dissipation Posted: February 01, 2012 at 03:36 PM (#4051397)
One of my favorite stories in Rob Neyer's Big Book of Baseball Legends concerns Willie Mays scoring from first base on a bunt by Willie McCovey. It happened on May 3, 1970, when the Giants were playing the Phillies. In the bottom of the first, Mays was on first, and the Phillies were playing the shift against McCovey. McCovey bunted down the third base line, and by the time left-fielder Tony Taylor could run it down and get it back to the infield, Mays had scored and McCovey had a bunt double. I might note that Mays was three days shy of his 39th birthday at the time...

The other interesting thing about that game is Phillies pitcher Lowell Palmer. Starter Woodie Fryman got knocked out after recording only one out in the first. Palmer and his shades came in and pitched the rest of way, 8-2/3 innings to get the win. Almost a complete game in relief.

Box score and PBP
   21. chris p Posted: February 01, 2012 at 03:38 PM (#4051403)
With Pujols, AGone & Fielder now in the AL, 1st base at the All Star game is a bit crowded.

well, miguel cabrera and youkilis are out of the way now.
   22. Slivers of Maranville (SdeB) Posted: February 01, 2012 at 04:17 PM (#4051456)
Starter Woodie Fryman got knocked out after recording only one out in the first. Palmer and his shades came in and pitched the rest of way, 8-2/3 innings to get the win. Almost a complete game in relief.


Many here are probably also familiar with this story, but Babe Ruth was involved in a similar situation. In 1917 Babe Ruth was pitching against Washington. He walked the first batter, got into an argument with the ump, got ejected, and was relieved by Ernie Shore. The baserunner was thrown out stealing, and Shore proceeded to retire the next 26 batters, ending up with a perfect game.
   23. KronicFatigue Posted: February 01, 2012 at 04:39 PM (#4051475)
Am I crazy to think bunting inside pitches would be easier? From my little league skillz, I feel like you want to keep the bat close to you when you are bunting. That it's easier to let the ball come to you than lunge for it.

I feel like it's easy to push an inside ball to third base.
   24. base ball chick Posted: February 01, 2012 at 05:13 PM (#4051518)
what is it that the manager said to jim bouton - bunting is like (uh, handy male accomplishment) once you learn how you nevah forget

every time i ever saw a lefty bunt against the shift and the bunt didn't go foul or popup, it was an easy single

can't remember if it was jim edmonds, larry walker or david ortiz who did it in the 04 WS
   25. Hysterical & Useless Posted: February 01, 2012 at 05:20 PM (#4051523)
Well, the theory is that when bunting you "catch" the ball with the bat. [That's how Scooter described it.] The problem is, sometimes you miss or just kind of tip it a bit, even when you're "catching" with the barrel of the bat. If the pitch is coming inside, you're liable to get a foul into your teeth. Or other vulnerable area. [Turns head and coughs.]
   26. Srul Itza Posted: February 01, 2012 at 05:30 PM (#4051535)
Well, the theory is that when bunting you "catch" the ball with the bat.


I think that's more for a pure sacrifice bunt. If you are bunting for a hit, you don't want to lay one down that just stops in front of the plate, because then the catcher can throw you out.
   27. Davo Malvolio Posted: February 01, 2012 at 05:43 PM (#4051546)
Since bunting removes the possibility of an extra-base hit, his success rate would have to be a lot higher than normal for this to be a good play--closer to 45%.
   28. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 01, 2012 at 05:50 PM (#4051552)
Since bunting removes the possibility of an extra-base hit, his success rate would have to be a lot higher than normal for this to be a good play--closer to 45%.

Not if the threat of bunting reduces the shift and raises his OPS in ABs he doesn't bunt.

In any case, he doesn't have to actually "bunt". There's no need to deaden the ball, or keep it particularly close to the line. He just needs to generate a weak grounder to 3B.

This could be done by push bunting, choking up and slapping at the ball, even just waiting for the pitch to get deep in the zone and swinging inside out.
   29. The Yankee Clapper Posted: February 01, 2012 at 05:52 PM (#4051553)
Giambi was never willing to bunt, and became a .250 hitter also for the same reason.

I recall Giambi bunting for a hit against the shift once - if it had been a little harder, he'd have had a double. Never tried it again that I saw, which seems a bit odd. Perhaps he was teased.
   30. SoSH U at work Posted: February 01, 2012 at 05:56 PM (#4051557)
Perhaps he was teased.


That wouldn't surprise me at all.
   31. micker17 Posted: February 01, 2012 at 06:33 PM (#4051601)
Bunting is not macho.

However, if your adversary is GIVING you something, and your goal is winning, you have to take advantage of the situation.

Also, as Snapper wrote in #28, Tex's real motive is to get the defense to stop using the shift ever. If he can't keep the defense honest, he'll be a .250 hitter for the rest of his career (.256 & .248 the last 2 seasons).
   32. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: February 01, 2012 at 06:36 PM (#4051606)
Bunting is not macho.

Someone should've explained this to Mickey Mantle.
Or Ty Cobb, for that matter.
   33. bfan Posted: February 01, 2012 at 06:41 PM (#4051610)
But why would a team adjust the shift? If he bunts successfully 35% of the time, none are more than singles, and he isn't walking (if he bunts, he does not walk), giving him an OPS of .700, which is worse than if he swings away; hits .250 and hits a lot of homers. Don't you have to take the walk out of the equation, because if he bunts, he bunts, and if he walks, he did not bunt?
   34. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: February 01, 2012 at 08:49 PM (#4051672)
But why would a team adjust the shift? If he bunts successfully 35% of the time


If you're only bunting successfully 35% of the time, you shouldn't be bunting anyway. A team probably wouldn't adjust the shift much. You'd have to be pretty confident of getting on ~50% of the time or so for it to be worth it.
   35. Ephus Posted: February 01, 2012 at 09:52 PM (#4051699)
Actually, the metric is not how often he is successful in bunting, but the ratio of outs to base hits from bunting. I expect that a large number of times that Texeira attempted to bunt and failed, he would not put the ball into play (either because he missed or because he fouled it off). A foul or strike would not end the at bat, and might (particularly if it was strike one) lead to a less aggressive shift. If he developed a reputation for having the bunt in his arsenal, Tex also likely would see more fastballs, which the conventional wisdom states are more difficult to bunt than curve balls.

The efficacy of the bunt would also depend upon the number of outs. A bunt single is much more valuable if Tex is leading off than if he comes up with two outs and no one on.

   36. Something Other Posted: February 02, 2012 at 09:03 PM (#4052365)
Except for the HR totals he appears to be in a decline. Maybe it's a physical issue and he bounces back, or maybe he should change his swing back to what it was, but right now, he is not intimidating a lot of pitchers, especially away from YS3 and against RHP'ers.
It IS a physical issue. He's 31, well into baseball middle age. That's the likeliest reason for his decline. In two years he'll probably be below average for the position, and two years after that he'll probably be at best a platoon player. That's just the way it goes.

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