I would much prefer a RF to another ace. If they want Lee, wait till the offseason

The price for Lee will be very interesting. No long term committment, and he's a good bit better than Oswalt.

Oswalt may have asked for a trade, but he also has a full no-trade clause. Hasn't he said in the past that he's not interested in pitching in New York?

Hey, they paid for Oliver Perez. I think Scott Boras owes Mets fans another ace.

This article is relatively dumb, and particularly condescending ("The Mets must get a starter. For the fans. Because I said so. Oh yeah, and don't trade any good prospects").

In contrast, I thought this ESPN NY post was a really neat way of deconstructing a seemingly counterintuitive statistical point, and a much better read.

Just get them both.

As we all know, the other teams just exist to provide top talent to the Mets, etc.

I think Oswalt is the better target for the Mets - as I think Lee will command a long, expensive commitment in the offseason. Still, as always, the question is the price in exchange, and I will be very upset if the Mets deal away either Fernando, Flores, or Mejia.

Oswalt is going to cost the Mets a couple of top prospects, so i'd be looking more in the Millwood class. I would then try to upgrade at second and RF.

The Mets really are the 1980s Yankees remade.

Keep listening for those footsteps, Sammy...

On Pagan: "He's 8-for-11 in steal attempts (a stellar 73 percent)."

Isn't that a break-even rate?

The Mets definitely need better pitchers. If they had them, they could, I don't know, throw three straight shutouts at the defending pennant winners or something!

Mike Pelfrey is not a credible No. 1. He's a credible No. 0.

Even better than a No. 1!!!

You know what I love most about baseball? The utter randomness of some things. Livan Hernandez having a better ERA than Roy Halladay despite the latter being predictably brilliant. Stuff like that. A week ago today, I thought Manuel might be fired by now. The last thing I thought was possible was that the Mets would shutout the Phillies without a run. The more you think you know....

Hear hear.

By the way, Hessman now has 16 HR and is hitting .310/.391/.678 at the Buff. Surely there must be a team that would give us a serviceable something or other for him.

I'm confused, if Pelfrey is an ace, why do we need another one? How many teams have three aces?

On Pagan: "He's 8-for-11 in steal attempts (a stellar 73 percent)."

Isn't that a break-even rate?

9/11=0.82

I'm with the DA. If the thesis is "the Mets need one of these two likely available starting pitchers", it's strange to start the article with an ode to the starter in-house who is unexpectedly pitching really well.

By the way, Hessman now has 16 HR and is hitting .310/.391/.678 at the Buff. Surely there must be a team that would give us a serviceable something or other for him.

Yeah, and the Braves will get something useful for Chris Resop and his new sinker.

I think Oswalt is the better target for the Mets - as I think Lee will command a long, expensive commitment in the offseason. Still, as always, the question is the price in exchange, and I will be very upset if the Mets deal away either Fernando, Flores, or Mejia.

Agreed on the first part. The Yanks will need a starter, have $70m coming off the books, and will presumably target Lee. Oswalt, on the other hand, will be getting a pro rated 2/32 if he can be picked up in trade. Not bad at all for a credible, middling #1.

The Mets absolutely should acquire Oswalt.

The Mets at least as much as any other team need to add an excellent starter, in their case particularly so as not to chuck 20-plus starts at Pat Misch or Bobby Parnell. Oswalt will go a long way towards pushing the Mets into contention, and a long way, with Santana, Pelfrey (a credible #3 with a bullet), and Takahashi towards giving the club a postseason rotation as good as any other teams’. In fact, can any other team put up a one through four as good as Santana-Oswalt-Pelfrey-Takahashi? Further, even with its recent successes, our current (and next year’s) rotation is still remarkably and uncomfortably thin. Oswalt is the perfect choice to amend that, having started 30 or more games every year of the last six years.

I’m surprised there isn’t near unanimity on the subject. The only quibble should be price, really. If the Mets are, prorated, based on their Pyth, an 85-86 win team, Oswalt could easily bump that to 88 or 89 wins. He could easily be the difference between going to the postseason and going home at the end of September. Also, as good as Takahashi has been, I’d be surprised if he has the endurance to not only start regularly for the rest of the season, but then last all the way through the postseason. In the last two years he's pitched 122 and 144 innings. Adding Oswalt gives us a better shot at babying Takahashi through the season and still making the postseason. Tak as the fourth starter in the postseason makes for a hell of a rotation. That’s a rotation with a very real shot at going to and winning the World Series. I may be overestimating Oswalt’s potential impact, but I don’t think so. Since he’s under contract both this year and next Oswalt could well be the difference between wasting the Reyes-Beltran Mets, and revitalizing their shot at the brass ring.

The more I think about it the more certain I am that the Mets should be willing to give up at least one of their young players not named Mejia and Davis. In fact, given the ineptitude of the front office, the unlikelihood they’ll find another, better route to the postseason, and rather than watch this year and next year’s team founder near .500 without any real shot at the WS (and watch a quick exit in the unlikely event they sneak into the wild card), I’d willingly send the Astros any two young players other than Mejia and Davis.

Anyone who winced through the mess of the past offseason knows that the subtleties of successful roster building are way beyond the capabilities of this FO. Getting Oswalt is something fairly simply accomplished. If Omar has a wheelhouse, it's trading for high-priced talent without giving away the farm. Oswalt is the Mets best shot in 2010, and resolves enough of their issues for 2011 to make the team a contender that year as well.

BTW, has anyone else noticed that Fangraphs has Angel Pagan as 19th best player in baseball before yesterday's action? That's largely based on a huge UZR of 22.6/150 which isn't that reliable considering it's something like 50 games. That said, he does play a very good centerfield.

When I think about Pagan, I think about how sometimes guys are late bloomers and don't figure things out until relatively late in their career. That's why I think Francoeur will get another shot somewhere even after the Mets decide to part ways. Someone will gamble on him and it might be a decent move if they don't give him a lot of money. q

The Wilpons may not "owe" the fans another ace, but they did try to cover their lackluster off-season with statements about the lower cost of acquiring a pitcher in mid-season. They had to know IMO that they would be called out in mid-season when pitchers became available if they didn't appear to be acting aggressively.

BTW, has anyone else noticed that Fangraphs has Angel Pagan as 19th best player in baseball before yesterday's action?

And he's now, variously, third, eighth, and ninth.

bob, @22, who if anyone would you pursue?

edit: Does anybody know why Santana was pulled after 105 pitches?

The last thing I thought was possible was that the Mets would shutout the Phillies without a run.

Shutting them out with a run would have been considerably more impressive.

I think it's pretty well established that the Mets aren't going to sign Pedro but doesn't he make sense for them, especially if Pelfrey is really a legit number two starter?

Santana
Pelfrey
Pedro
Takahashi
Niese

I think you could win with that rotation.

You might, but it's awfully thin. Pedro is going to have injury and durability issues. Niese is going to have injury and durability issues, and it's been a long time since Takahashi pitched as many as 150 innings in a season. They might get you to the postseason, but I don't think they'll be able to do much after getting you there.

I see that no one really believes in Dickey. We'll see - I think a knuckleballer with strong peripherals (so far Dickey has shown the ability to get swings and misses) is a solid starter.

I'm all for signing Pedro, but in that rotation, he's the no.5 starter.

I'd also like to give Dillon Gee a shot. We need to see what his velocity and stuff is like against major leaguers, because it's clear that it's enough to dominate against AAA.

The Mets need 7 solid starters to last the season. It'd be nice if one of them is of the Oswalt/Lee caliber, but we should contend with a Pedro/Millwood addition as well.

In fact, can any other team put up a one through four as good as Santana-Oswalt-Pelfrey-Takahashi?

As long as you're weighing the most recent performance so heavily, Lincecum, Cain, Zito, Sanchez and Garza, Shields, Niemann and Price.

in their case particularly so as not to chuck 20-plus starts at Pat Misch or Bobby Parnell.

That won't happen with Parnell. BTW, have you noticed that Parnell is K'ing AAA at a very nice rate recently? It's time to call him up.

I think Misch/Gee could soak up 5-7 starts even needed, thus Oswalt would be a boost to the Mets' chances, not an absolute need.

Not that it's the be-all end-all, but hasn't all the reporting been that Oswalt wants no part of going to NYC?

BTW, has anyone else noticed that Fangraphs has Angel Pagan as 19th best player in baseball before yesterday's action? That's largely based on a huge UZR of 22.6/150 which isn't that reliable considering it's something like 50 games. That said, he does play a very good centerfield.

When I think about Pagan, I think about how sometimes guys are late bloomers and don't figure things out until relatively late in their career.

Funny, I was just thinking about Pagan today as well. He's really become a very good player, does everything well (including some pop) and is probably underappreciated because there's nothing that he's outstanding at.

That's why I think Francoeur will get another shot somewhere even after the Mets decide to part ways. Someone will gamble on him and it might be a decent move if they don't give him a lot of money.

I was thinking that way, but not about Francoeur, but rather about Chris Carter. He strikes me as a classic Ken Phelps All Star. If someone will give him a chance for 500 PAs, Carter will be very productive. I think Francoeur has an outside shot at improving significantly, but mostly likely this is who he is.

The other lesson I draw from Pagan is to show patience with injuries. Pagan was oft-injured early and mid career, leading many Mets fans to not believe in him. However, Omar stuck with him, and now the Mets are benefitting. I hope that Omar shows the same patience with Fernando.

Gee has given up 7 homers in his last 38 IP and really, his numbers in May haven't been very good. I wouldn't be too comfortable with him making starts yet.

Another BTW, what exactly are the Mets doing with Oliver Perez? He's the second long man in the bullpen that no longer needs two long men now that the two pitchers that didn't pitch deep into games aren't rotation. He isn't going to pitch enough to "work out the kinks". How does this story end?

I like Dickey as well, Rask. He's got two speeds with the knuckler and he throws the knuckler harder than Wakefield throws his fastball. I am actually comfortable with the depth of the backend of the rotation. But if the Mets acquire someone, I want him to be a front of the rotation type starter. That's part of the reason I want Pedro. He's someone that could be front end starter (118 ERA+ last year for the Phillies) whose fragility would be minimized because the Mets aren't expecting him to last the entire year and because the Mets have decent depth.

Not that it's the be-all end-all, but hasn't all the reporting been that Oswalt wants no part of going to NYC?

Absolutely and I tend to think that's true. I don't think he'll end up with the Mets. His salary isn't that huge anymore.

[23]

bob, @22, who if anyone would you pursue?

Oswalt. IMO Mariners will ask for more in prospects and the Mets are not prepared to sign Lee for big $.

edit: Does anybody know why Santana was pulled after 105 pitches?

Adam Rubin writes:

So why take out Santana, who had retired the final 11 Brewers he faced?

Manuel reasoned that Brewers first baseman Prince Fielder seemed to be on Santana's pitches throughout the night, and Fielder was due up first in the bottom of the ninth. The manager also cited Santana doubling while batting in the eighth.

"Once he had doubled, fought through the eighth, I didn't think it would be a good move," Manuel said about Santana continuing. "And Fielder, I think, was seeing him pretty good anyway. I didn't want to chance him to lose that ballgame out there after the way he had performed."

Also, in addition to the candidates listed above, another pitcher who's earned a couple of trial starts is Raul Valdes, who has shown excellent peripherals this year. Most of Omar's teams have been short a couple of starting pitchers, leading to Brian Lawrences and Lima starts in August and September. But the 2010 version should have enough to get by.

Oswalt. IMO Mariners will ask for more in prospects and the Mets are not prepared to sign Lee for big $.

I can't believe the M's will get more for Lee, as a half-season rental, than the Astros will get for Oswalt. Granted, Oswalt is signed to a market contract, which doesn't make him as attractive a commodity as he would be if the Astros were selling a below-market contract. But still, they are selling a guy where the team would be getting two years with an option for a third, not 15 starts (at most) with at best the opportunity to sign Lee to a deal that will cost you more than Oswalt's anyway.

Frankly, at this point I agree that if you are talking about a rental, the Mets' biggest need is a right fielder, not a starter. A starter would be second. I am less than convinced that Beltran will be back at all, and if he is, that he will be able to actually stay on the field. I think there is a very good chance Pagan will end up being the Mets' center fielder for virtually all of this season.

I just noticed Lee's peripherals. Wow. 3/42 BB/K. 1 K/IP.
Some one will give a commitment that will be risky because of contract length, but that team will be getting one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball.

Sam, you're not a believer that either Carter or Murphy + Tatis/Frenchy platoon could solve RF?

I see that no one really believes in Dickey. We'll see - I think a knuckleballer with strong peripherals (so far Dickey has shown the ability to get swings and misses) is a solid starter.

Dickey has enough arm that he played in the majors as a conventional pitcher, and he's only been throwing the knuckler seriously for only, what, four years? He's not the typical 35-year-old journeyman, in that his recent success *might* be indicative of a real jump in ability. I mean, who knows, but I think it's worth it for the Mets to give him an opportunity to succeed or fail.

He's the ultimate pitching weirdo -- a knuckleballer without a UCL -- so I'd love to think that he's really an averageish and therefore very valuable starter.

That won't happen with Parnell. BTW, have you noticed that Parnell is K'ing AAA at a very nice rate recently? It's time to call him up.

Agree. Don't know what gave Jerry the idea that Iragashi was an appropriate reliever for high-leverage situations.

If the Brewers continue to tank don't be surprised if Hart is available. Melvin has never been a fun. He doesn't think Corey is serious enough about the game.

Yes, it's odd. I just report the facts.

If Melvin really doesn't care for Hart, why not consider moving him for a pitcher who might help you get back into the race instead of waiting until your season is completely cooked and dumping him for suspects?

I don't think any team is going to offer a pitcher for Hart that will help the team get back into the race.

With respect to rightfield, don't you think the Mets are going to solve that problem when Beltran comes back?

Sam, you're not a believer that either Carter or Murphy + Tatis/Frenchy platoon could solve RF?

I see no reason to believe that Daniel Murphy can handle an OF spot -- even in a platoon role -- any better than he did in the debacle that was his attempt at it last year. Is there any reason to think Carter's defense would be adequate? He's played a lot more 1B in the minors, and very little RF even when he's played the outfield. On the offensive side of it, I suppose a platoon could be adequate, but honestly, do you see any reason whatsoever to think that Jerry Manuel would do that? He hasn't so far. If he wanted to platoon Francoeur with Carter, he certainly could have done it by now.

With respect to rightfield, don't you think the Mets are going to solve that problem when Beltran comes back?

I am deeply skeptical that Beltran is coming back, or that if he does he will be able to stay in the line-up. I put the over-under on Beltran's games played in CF at 35, and I'd take the under.

Frankly, at this point I agree that if you are talking about a rental, the Mets' biggest need is a right fielder, not a starter. A starter would be second. I am less than convinced that Beltran will be back at all, and if he is, that he will be able to actually stay on the field. I think there is a very good chance Pagan will end up being the Mets' center fielder for virtually all of this season.

I'm not quite sure how you're defining "rental", but if the aim is to get to the postseason then have a repsectable shot at winning the World Series, I have to disagree. If we use our chips and cash to get a RFer*, there won't be anything like enough pitching to carry us through the postseason. It would be the equivalent of running flat out in a mile race just to be able to say you were ahead at the three-quarter mark. Takahashi is the only realistic candidate for the third starter slot in the postseason. To date he's pitched 38 innings. If he's in the rotation from now until the end of the season he'd be making 22 or 23 starts, or something like 140 innings. That would put him close to 180 innings before the postseason even begins despite his having pitched only 144 and 122 innings in the last two seasons. Even if the Mets squeak into the postseason without having traded for a pitcher, once they get there they'll have all of two reliable starters with which to try to win it all. Surely a third, good, durable starter more than an upgrade in RF gives them a decent shot at the World Series, and Oswalt's the only guy out there to date who meets the former definition.

*Also, how much improvement is any RFer the Mets pick up going to offer over the in house platoon of Francouer/Carter/Tatis with Francouer as the late-inning D sub, compared to the improvement Oswalt offers over the Mets 5th starter du jour?

Havens has hit pretty well this season as has Thole after a pretty rough April. I wonder if we will see a Thole, Reyes, Wright, Davis, and Havens infield sometime this year.