If they signed Furcal, and say, Casey Blake, or some other non-crappy 3b, and picked up a back-up plan for Barton, I'd predict them to win more than 85. I doubt they'll sign Furcal though.

Yeah, Holliday isn't enough. Furcal and some kind of actual 3rd baseman would be nice.

Blake would be a good fit actually. He's always been competent and would presumably be cheap. That said, I'm honestly okay hoping against hope with Chavvy. You never know...

The Angels, as presently constituted, are not that good. Garland has to be replaced (easy enough), K-Rod's innings go all the way down the chain to somebody in AAA, they're losing their best hitter, and the rest of their offense is on the wrong side of its peak. Unless Kendrick, Morales, and Kotchman are all better than expected, or they are able to get one of the BIG ticket FAs, I don't think they're a sure bet to win 90. I think Neyer is right to focus on that element of Beane's aggressiveness.

Blake would be a good fit actually. He's always been competent and would presumably be cheap.

Now that the Twins, Indians, A's, Dodgers, Yankees, and others are all considering Blake as a cheap fallback, I think it's safe to say that the market is shifting and he won't be as cheap as he first appeared.

I wonder if they could grab Teahen for cheap and play him at 3rd. They've got the mid-level prospects to get it done.

I wouldn't assume Teix and K-Rod are both gone, but frankly, I'd be happy if they signed K-Rod. Yeah, the Angels are an 85-win team as presently constituted, but they do have a lot of money.

I wonder if they could grab Teahen for cheap and play him at 3rd. They've got the mid-level prospects to get it done.

I like this idea if he can handle it defensively. So...can he?

andrewberg knows the Angels so well he that he mentions that Casey Kotchman will have to contribute in 2009.

Oops. I was thinking of Wood. I have no idea how I got those two switched.

Udub Law, represent!

We have a shiny new building.

We have a shiny new building.

Third tier, here we come!

I like this idea if he can handle it defensively. So...can he?

Teahen was noted as a great defensive third baseman in the minors, but in the Majors he performed quite badly in most defensive metrics. He didn't look quite that bad to me, but he is probably below average. I don't know how the time off from third will affect him, although he looked okay in a few games there this year when Gordon was hurt.

He is probably passable, but well below average.

Got any low OBA hitters to trade? Contact Dayton Moore at dmoore@kcroyals.com!

Shooty misses Bill King Posted: November 11, 2008 at 04:29 PM (#3007047)
I wonder if they could grab Teahen for cheap and play him at 3rd. They've got the mid-level prospects to get it done.

I like this idea if he can handle it defensively. So...can he?

I don't like this idea, not unless those mid level prospects are crap. Even at 3b, he's likely below average offensively. Other than 2006, he was below positional average for 3b, both in 2007 and 2008. He needs to be able to be better than just "handle it defensively" to be worth it.

Now that the Twins, Indians, A's, Dodgers, Yankees, and others are all considering Blake as a cheap fallback, I think it's safe to say that the market is shifting and he won't be as cheap as he first appeared.

I present Melvin Mora to the losers of the Blake sweepstakes. He only has 1 year left on his contract and his bat was just as good as Blake's in 2008 (Blake 110 OPS+ v Mora 114 OPS+).

if Melvin waves his no-trade. thanks, Flangelos!

The Rockies would love to move Garrett Atkins to one of those third-baseman-hungry teams.

if Melvin waves his no-trade. thanks, Flangelos!

Damn, I forgot about that. I also forgot to mention that Mora has playoff experience as he will remind you.

the rest of their offense is on the wrong side of its peak

Mike Napoli, Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar, Brandon Wood, Kendry Morales, Jeff Mathis and Sean Rodriguez are all under age 27, most by a good margin.

and at least half of them suck.

Let's trade our prospects for Adrian Beltre. Now who's with me??

Unless Kendrick, Morales, and Kotchman are all better than expected

I WOULDN'T COUNT ON KOTCHMAN PRODUCING MUCH FOR THE HALOS NEXT YEAR

BUT HE MIGHT CONTRIBUTE MORE TO THE ANGELS (0) THAN BARTON WILL FOR THE A'S (-N (WHERE N=AVERAGE 1B))

Third tier, here we come!

This comment is so TTT.

The guys in high school used to trade for one-year rentals all the time, it was no big deal.

While the Angels are probably an 85-win team at the moment and may not be able to land CC or Teix or Manny, it seems very likely to me that they'll add at least 1 "big" piece and 1 "good" piece -- where "big" equals Dunn, Burrell, Lowe, Fuentes or Burnett (say) and "good" is Juan Cruz, Casey Blake or Javier Vazquez. I expect they'll be in the 88-90 range by opening day.

And if one or two of their sucky prospects don't suck, they could be downright good. :-)

It is a challenge at the moment though. Assuming Vlad moves (mainly) to DH, their OF at the moment is Torii Hunter and your pick of two guys who can't hit. 1B/3B is, at best, two prospects who haven't hit at the ML level yet. So unless I'm forgetting someone, Teix is the only FA position player who's a truly good fit. Dunn/Burrell would be OK if either can play a decent 1B or the Angels can live with them for one year in LF before taking over for Vlad at DH.

Did I just contradict myself? Maybe. But what I think I mean is that, if they can't sign Teix, I wouldn't be surprised if they put their FA money into pitching. A run's a run and there's a good amount of starting and relieving talent on the FA market this year. (Yes, there's also a lot of FA hitting talent but most of it is LFs who can't field.)

Assuming Vlad moves (mainly) to DH, their OF at the moment is Torii Hunter and your pick of two guys who can't hit.

What happened to Juan Rivera?

Is Blake better than Eric Hinske?

The Rockies would love to move Garrett Atkins to one of those third-baseman-hungry teams.

Atkins isn't really a 3B. He's a poor fielding 1B who truth-be-told should be DHing.

Is there any chance that Chavez can return to 3B in 2009?

I think Chavez is just 4 or 5 more surgeries from an incredible comeback.

Of course with the double-whammy of leaving Planet Coors and switching from the AAAA League to the Big-Boy League, expect Holliday to hit .250 (or less) with about 12 HR...

One of the main reasons that Beane gave for blowing up the team was Chavez being injured (also Duke and Gaudin) so maybe he knows something we don't. If he's back to 75% of his old self thats two really big upgrades to the lineup from last year defensively and offensively.

I can't believe Beane is counting on having a healthy Chavez. Hannahan is a good defender but he killed them at the plate last year. So third base seems like the biggest hole, now that they got the big righthanded bat they needed.

I think Chavez is just 4 or 5 more surgeries from an incredible comeback.

ditto Mark Mulder.

Just go on with your lives as if Eric Chavez died. If the miracle of science can reanimate him, the A's will find him playing time. Meanwhile let's just pretend he died in a horrible 17 car pile up on the Nimitz. It would be insane to waste another year building the team around the player Chavez was supposed to be. It's sad and disappointing, but it's the way it has to be. Now, assuming the A's spend their free cash on Holliday, Furcal and maybe a veteran pitcher to hedge against Duke's hip and the uncertain performance of the kids, that still leaves problems at first and third. For first, I'm assuming they go cheap and bring in a right handed hitting first baseman to spell Barton and step in full time in case he sucks again. No, I have no idea who this could be. That leaves the sinkhole at 3rd. No way is Hannahan the #1 guy going into spring training, so what should they do? Blake? Do they try to get Dallas McPherson into camp as an NRI and then find a righty 3rd base option to pair with him in a platoon? Do they throw good prospects at Seattle to try to get Beltre or slightly less good ones to try to get Bill Hall? Do the Red Sox want to dump Lowell so they can move Youk to third and go after Tex? If so, how much salary do you think you can get them to eat? How about a Freddy Sanchez/Jack Hannahan platoon? The offense is still sucky instead of horribly sucky but you get excellent defense and a capable infielder on the bench and a good back up for the fragile Mark Ellis. What about taking a chance on Willie Aybar if you can get him for a decent price from the Rays. I'm just throwing crap at the wall to see what may stick. The nice thing about the Holliday trade is that it's fun to think of the possibilities for now instead of for 2010. And just in time too since the election is over and I don't need to obsessively check on the polls anymore. Again, I'm not presenting these ideas as realistic or the best options, I'm just having fun trying to anticipate where the A's are going with this. Whatever I haven't mentioned, that's what they'll do, I'm sure.

This comment is so TTT.

Is BTF turning into ATL?

//Halos to 160!!!11

What about ptiching?

The Angels have a damn good 1-2-3-4 of Saunders, Weaver, Lackey and Sanatana.
This A's team has no one.

Plus the Angels have enough hitters to fill a lineup with a half dozen .300 averages (and then hit .190 in the postseason).

I'm not trolling or anything, I just REALLY can;t see any bright side for the A's, nor can I figure out what the hell they're doing.

What about [sic] ptiching?

ZiPS thinks Duchscherer, Gallagher and Eveland are above average. The bullpen should be good again with Ziegler, Devine and Blevins. The defense was very good last year, but may not be again if Sweeney replaces Carlos in CF. I'm thinking Davis is going to see substantial time in CF. He won't be worse offensively than Carlos was last year.

The problems as everyone noted are SS, 1B and 3B, with maybe an innings-eater for the back of the rotation. Between trades and about $40M below the max salary budget they can do a lot to solve SS, 1B and 3B. The back of the rotation is likely to be a problem till someone out of the Gio, Mazzaro, Outman, Cahill, Anderson group emerges. I'd be happy if Simmons were trade bait or does what Smith did last year. Injuries to Duchscherer and/or Gallagher would probably be very bad news. Rodriguez and Carignan are candidates to help the pen later in the season.

What happened to Juan Rivera?

He stopped hitting two years ago. He's never been a full-time player. He has one season (500 PA) with an OPS+ over 109. He'll be 30 years old and he's coming off an injury. Our friend Mr. ZiPS projects him to hit 268/313/446 which is worse than the average 2B -- granted, that's better than Kendry Morales' projection ... but worse than GMjr.

So he'd be one of the guys who can't hit except he's also an FA.

Rivera had 43 ABs in 2007 because he broke his leg and missed the first five months of the season. Arguing that he didn't hit that year is ridiculous, no matter how many times it gets posted.

In 2008, he had about 60 very sporadic AB's through June 28th which happened to be the night the Angels threw a no-hitter... and lost. Fortunately for the mental health of all Angels fans, that also happened to be the end of GMJ's playing time as Rivera essentially replaced him and played virtually every day until September 13th when, during the course of his best hitting day in two years, he tweaked his hip. An injury that he never really recovered from before the season's end. During his stretch of consistent PT, he put up a 267/296/513 (roughly a 110 OPS+) with 12 HRs in 187 ABs. I was disappointed with that performance and I would be very surprised if he doesn't improve upon it provided he gets regular ABs next year. Hopefully he'll get those ABs with the Angels in RF, where even if he only puts up the 110 OPS+, it will almost be worth it just to watch that arm. It is almost worth the price of admission.

With respect to the A's, their ERA in the second half of 2008 was 4.93 and they've just dumped the most consistent starter they had during that period. Eveland was/is a PointFiver who was barely a five-inning guy last year and he slots as their number 2. Gallagher has nice stuff but he was atrocious last year and predicting him to be above average is a huge reach. The starting will be below average even if Duch can keep his 08 form. The bullpen was fantastic but built largely on the strength of two very fluky seasons. Blevins and Devine are decent bets to be solid next year and if Zeigler can continue to keep the ball in the yard his low K numbers probably won't hurt him too much. That would allow the A's to have an above average bullpen, the only part of their team that reasonably projects to such a designation absent at least two more bats.

Gallagher has nice stuff but he was atrocious last year and predicting him to be above average is a huge reach.

He wasn't atrocious with the Cubs, and he was largely hurt with the A's. I'm personally not that sanguine about him, but management seems to like him a lot.

Didn't know about the injury- anything serious?

They called it "shoulder fatigue". He did come back in September though.

Although anyone who suffers an injury under the supervision of the A's medical staff should consider themselves lucky if they can walk again, let alone play in the majors.

With respect to the A's, their ERA in the second half of 2008 was 4.93 and they've just dumped the most consistent starter they had during that period. Eveland was/is a PointFiver who was barely a five-inning guy last year and he slots as their number 2.

Yes, Smith consistently posted up a 5.17 ERA with more BB than K in the second half.

The A's 2009 rotation is a big question mark at this point since only 3 slots seem to be remotely settled (Duke, Gallagher, and Eveland). Smith would have added a lot of stability and certainty to the back end of the rotation, but the A's have usually been pretty good at rounding out their rotation with pitchers who are closer to average than replacement level. It seems like Dallas Braden and Gio Gonzalez would be the frontrunners for the last two slots, simply because they've both already had success at AAA. But Cahill, Anderson, Simmons, and Mazzaro will all be in AAA at some point in 2009, and they're all capable of pitching their way into the big league rotation (though none should be expected to).

I'm a bit worried about the bullpen after Street's departure. Devine was awesome last year, but he'll add at least 2 runs to his ERA (he has to allow a HR sometime). Ziegler's GB rate is very real, but he's showing the same large platoon split that most submariners have. Casilla was pretty awful after coming back from injury this year. Blevins should be pretty good, and maybe some of the young SP prospects will succeed in the bullpen, but it will certainly decline from last year.