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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
One of Jack Zduriencik’s biggest goals this offseason was to lock up young pitching ace Felix Hernandez to a contract extension and the Seattle Mariners appear to have pulled that off Monday, according to an ESPN report.
Though no contract terms were reported, ESPN analyst Keith Law says a source with direct knowledge of the talks tells him a multi-year deal is now in place, pending a physical by Hernandez.
If Law’s information is correct, that would be huge news for Mariners’ fans who already have seen the team trade for pitching ace Cliff Lee, third baseman Chone Figgins and left fielder Milton Bradley as well as the long-term signing of center fielder Franklin Gutierrez and the one-year renewal with Ken Griffey Jr. this offseason.
Hernandez has developed into one of the top pitchers in baseball in his five seasons with Seattle and expressed a desire to stay with the team after last year. But there had been talk in some quarters that it would make sense to begin shopping the young ace while he had maximum trade value rather than let him enter into his final year or two before free agency, unless he was willing to commit to a longer-term deal.
Thanks to Barry.
Repoz
Posted: January 19, 2010 at 02:09 PM | 87 comment(s)
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1. OCD SS Posted: January 19, 2010 at 02:46 PM (#3440869)Seconded. Your turn Twins!
Funny. As a fan of the original, I applaud this 100%. I far prefer a talent market that forces the Yankees to develop more players internally.
Hate is a bit too strong. I'm tepid; I recognize his greatness, just feel no warmth towards him.
So, you don't prefer rooting for home grown talent?
<strike>Roy Halladay</strike>
Albert Pujols
Derek Jeter
Chipper Jones
Joe Mauer
The rest I really haven't got any feelings towards, or haven't really established a real sense of "being a [teamname]" with me.
King Felix might have been an additional one.
Edit: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/01/mariners-hernandez-agree-to-multiyear-deal.html
Between this and a possible Scott Brown victory in the MA-Senate killing health care dead once and for all, I now declare January 19th, 2009 to be The Greatest Day in American History.
Seconded and passed.
Only going forward. But he wasn't one looking back.
Oh concur, concur. I couldn't believe it when NBC News said that polls had him winning, perhaps easily. I actually wish they'd shut up until after the votes are in.
As a Canadian, I both laugh at and weep for your nation during your "health care reform" brouhaha.
As someone who has watched a loved one visit emergency twice, have 3 general physician visits, 2 ear/nose/throat specialist visits, and get two sets of x-rays, but only pay $14 in total (to cover parking at emergency room)...
You can say that again. If those numbers are true, Hernandez must really love living in Seattle.
Let's hope Mauer really loves living in Minnesota, or else he won't accept twice the reported figure Hernandez signed for. And the Twins have nowhere near the resources of the Mariners.
Is it too early to award him the Executive of the Year award?
They already dealt Johan.
I hate to ask, but why would you say this? I haven't really been following the health care thing because I assumed all along that if the idiots in charge got anything passed that it would be so watered down and caveat-filled as to be worthless, but it still seems like a profoundly uncharitable sentiment considering the tens of millions of people without access to health care. Even if you're against improving the standards of health care in this country for whatever reason, it just seems mean-spirited to claim this as a watershed day in history.
By the way, why the hell DID the mods nuke that thread? It wasn't any different (or more or less heated) than any other political thread we've had here. And we haven't even really had one lately. Something must've happened. But it bugged me to see it suddenly gone.
I guess you haven't heard that providing people with more health care will lead us to a Marxist/Fascist/Atheist paradise for teh Islamists.
/Boo Health Care Reform. Yaa more tax cuts!
Don't want to speak for Esoteric, but this bill is a disaster. It will do nothing to improve health care standards, will be monsterously expensive, contains numerous payoffs to special interests, and has the potential to force millions of taxpayers and healthcare providers to violate their consciences by supporting the provision of abortions.
Even if one is fully supportive of some type of health insurance reform, and I am, this ain't it.
I'll stop.
Then why did you bring that ######## into the thread? You're the one that polluted the Felix news with inane sentiments about how denying millions of people health care is a great day for this country.
EDIT: That said, I'll stop now. Back to Felix.
EDIT: And with that I hope to bring the thing full circle back to Felix.
Hardly. Red/blue/puce, they're all politicians, which means that they're career liars and manipulators.
5/78, if true, is pretty much the best contract ever, except for maybe the one with which the Red Sox enslaved Tim Wakefield.
True, but then, Felix Hernandez is huge for an arb-eligible player. Pretty sure I wouldn't sign right now for 5/78, if I were him, unless I was hellbent on staying in Seattle.
That would be wonderful, even I would go for that, and I'm a very small-government libertarian kind of guy.
The health reform bill that is working through our legislation right now doesn't even take a small step in the direction. The policies currently being debated are not giving health care to people, providing a public option, or even lowering costs. The solution so far is to REQUIRE, let me say that again, REQUIRE all adults to purchase health insurance or be fined (unless you own or work in business X or associated with group Y, there are a number of special interests in it).
My opinion and research leads me to believe that the health insurance companies are the reasons why health care is so expensive, so by forcing everyone to purchase it, it's only going to drive the cost of health care/ insurance through the roof.
No, it's too late. Did you really think that only people who shared your worldview would be interested in talking about the Felix signing? You purposely trolled this thread (and one on LL, though no one took your bait there (yet)) and now you are going to act like you're taking the high road? Weak as hell.
Still holding out hope that the Mariners can't or won't pay Felix and that the Red Sox can get him, eh?
No, it's annoying when:
1. This is major news. This isn't some ho-hum league average guy being extended.
2. The hijacking is being done by someone who is a Mariners fan. Shouldn't you be happy to talk about the signing?
3. You know full well that your comments would result in the thread being derailed, it isn't as if you don't know how long-winded political threads here get, especially on this subject.
Nobody wants to talk politics in this thread, I'm just saying it's weak of Esoteric to talk that #### and then act like he meant nothing to come of it. Like I mentioned in my first post in this thread, I don't even care about this half-assed attempt at reform, I just think claiming its failure as a great day in history is an inflammatory sentiment which has no place in a thread that could have been a discussion about one of the great young players in baseball. I'm a Mariner (and Felix) fan as well so why shouldn't I get to enjoy the signing as much as Esoteric without being subjected to his vile digressions?
At this point the person most responsible for shitting up the thread is you. Clamp down on your OUTRAGE and talk about Felix FFS.
The sentimental schmoe in me wants to believe that this is all about Felix loving Zduriencik's approach (relations were supposedly frosty with the Bavasi FO, which didn't treat him with the respect he apparently felt he deserved) and being enthused about the new direction of the team (Gutierrez, the Lee trade, etc.), plus maybe realizing that Safeco + world-beating defense is the best setting he could ever hope to pitch in. But in my experience these things usually come down to money money money, especially for a player who hasn't yet signed his first big FA contract.
Go to hell. 4 people posted about that issue before I said anything. I came in here happy because Felix was signed and we wouldn't have to hear about how he would be soon traded to Boston or NY and Esoteric felt it was necessary to piss on me and everyone else who doesn't agree that today is the greatest day in American history. I take it personally that he felt it necessary to make this thread about himself and his (totally irrelevant to the topic at hand) political views rather than about Felix and the Mariners.
Even if he can get 25m over the next two years that means he's giving up 3 FA years for 53m then be free again at age 29. Plus there's apparently incentives. Seems like a great deal for the M's and a good deal for Felix.
Agreed. I think it works well for both sides.
Nowhere near? I guess I'm not sure I understand that bit.
Damn. And I have to consider whether to keep DeRosa at $6 million per. Wooo.
I love what JZ is doing. Anything that increases the competition in moribund divisions is fine by me.
Now if only the Royals could get back on track...
I think Mauer would jump at 5 years $156M. That's an AAV of $31M a season which would make him the highest paid player in the game.
The Mariners are looking like they want to win a few division titles.
Do you think there was collusion? It seems like these contracts are actually good for owners as they hold down salaries for star players (albeit at the cost of risk). I don't see why the Mariners would have agreed to lose Felix in 2 years when they could get him at a discount now. What would be in it for them?
Not Felix's contract. The grievance was due to Florida not spending their luxury tax money they received. Seattle has not been accused of that. Look at some of their other contracts, you'll see that they're shelled out plenty.Cot's Contracts
Not Felix's contract. The grievance was due to Florida not spending their luxury tax money they received. Seattle has not been accused of that. Look at some of their other contracts, you'll see that they're shelled out plenty.Cot's Contracts
Right. I'm not talking about specific teams. I think at best, teams were just penny-pinching, at at worst Bud floated a memo to all 30 teams saying "hold off on long-term deals for pre-FA players for a bit." And teams have begun giving long-term deals again. Whatever has happened, Seattle is being very smart locking up Felix and Gutierrez.
If Felix suffers a career ending injury this year, he is set for life. Without this contract, he should be ok, but he isn't exactly living the lifestyles of the rich and famous.
If Felix suffers a career ending injury this year, he is set for life. Without this contract, he should be ok, but he isn't exactly living the lifestyles of the rich and famous.
Exactly. The "marginal utility" of you second $100M in life time earnings is remarkably low. What can you buy with $100M that you can't with $50M? But the difference between $20M in lifetime earnings and $100M is real.
Even in more normal income ranges this is true. I wouldn't increase my work week from ~50 hours (60 w/commute) to 80 hours (e.g. Investment Banking) if you doubled, or even tripled, my pay.
I imagine that the answer is: quite a lot.
200 chicks at the same time.
There's a whole thread in there, but it'd never get written.
He is now pretty much set for life, big time, and if he becomes what he thinks he is, then when he reaches free agency he can probably cash in for another huge pay day. If not, he has the money in the bank.
Meanwhile, where exactly did this Jack-Z fellow come from? I don't recall too many new GMs (he is new, right?) making this kind of an impact so fast.
Felix? ;)
Mariners hired him after the 2008 season. He was previously the Brewers' amateur scouting director (promoted to assistant GM for one year) and was the first non-GM to win Baseball America's Executive of the Year Award. A lot of people (including me) give him the majority of the credit for putting the Brewers on the road to respectability because of his draft success (Fielder, Gallardo, Braun, Weeks, Hardy, etc.).
So he's already been there for a year? What took him so long??
Sure there is. It's just stuff that is in a whole new realm of ridiculous extravagance. Boats and planes and houses and private islands. Outrageous charitable donations, like buying entire schools and hospitals.
So wait, this was sarcastic? Sorry, I missed it.
Let's say Felix would have made $10M in arb this year and--if he stayed healthy--$15M in arb next year (as Cameron suggests at Fangraphs). That means the M's had him for a one year deal for $10M and a team option for $15M for next year. They then guaranteed his team option for 2011 and extended him for 3 years and $53M. That's not all that different from the extension the Halladay just signed with the Phillies (3 years for $60M, with a $20M team option for a 4th year), especially since the Ms also guaranteed his 2011 contract and extended him when he was already under team control for 2 more years.
I think the M's paid market value given the risk they're taking. Also, Esoteric's bleating that he doesn't want to distract from discussion or seem cocky is laughably stupid.
Of course, that leaves the question -- what does he do for an encore?
Buy the Mets from the Wilpons.
Is there an expansion planned in the BTF DMB league? Who do I have to bribe to be considered? I am willing to fund my own ballpark.
Presumably, the parties involved feel it is fair.
Both sides are taking a calculcated risk. The Mariners hope they will make millions upon millions of value, while fearing that Felix has the end of Prior's career. Felix is comfortable giving up those millions on that same small chance.
Maybe Braun and Felix will regret these deals at the end of them, when they have performed well and they don't have enough to own a Leer with pilots on payroll all the time and they can't afford 10 mansions in vacation hotspots with full staffs to maintain them. Or maybe they will be content with the tens of millions they have and the next big contract they can sign.
I think so too, but I doubt the Twins would offer that much money unless the contract was at least seven years... and 7/156 won't land Mauer unless he gives the biggest hometown discount in sports history, because the Yankees probably already have a 7/200 offer printed, signed, and sitting on the corner of Brian Cashman's desk. And they may not be alone.
I'm not saying Mauer definitely won't re-sign with the Twins, no doubt, not happening; but I'm saying (a) it's less likely than a lot of people would like to believe, and (b) if it does happen, it's more likely going to be because the Twins paid more than they were generally expected to, than because Mauer took a big discount.
It's really not that small; in fact, for a young pitcher, the chance of blowing out your arm and never being the same again is quite large. There are more Mark Priors, Ben Sheetses, Kerry Woods, etc., twisting in the winds of history than there are Roger Clemenses or even Carlos Zambranos. That should be a significant motivating factor for especially a young, still-arbing pitcher (as opposed to a position player) to be willing to accept a short contract/big AAV deal and set himself up for life, while ensuring he's still young enough at the contract's end to get a big payday if he turns out to be one of the lucky ones.
Oh, okay. Sorry again, you know it's hard to tell sometimes if people are being serious. I totally agree that Zduriencik is off to a very good start as a GM. However, I'm a little worried that he's getting a bit overhyped and anything less than 90 wins will be seen as a crushing failure by many people. What I mean is, the quick turnaround from the disastrous Bavasi era may have unfairly raised expectations only a year into Jack's tenure and that could cost him if the Mariners need a consolidation year or two. It's probably an irrational fear but I think it might have been better for his long-term job security if the team had won 75 games last year instead of 85.
Sheets actually did mitigate his risk by signing a long-term deal while he was still arbitration eligible. It was for 4 years/$38.5 million and bought out two free agent years. (He got badly hurt in the last year of the deal, which is why he was unsigned last year.) Same thing with Wood, he signed a 3 year, $32.5 million deal with the Cubs that bought out two free agent years.
I would have been less surprised had Hernandez signed that kind of contract, 3/35 or something. But reasoning it out, I appear to be wrong to think so.
5/78's buying out three free agent years. If you assume that after 2011 a healthy Hernandez gets 7/175 from the Yankees (Sabathia got 7/161), he gave up $75 million for those three years, plus $25 million from his last two arb years... he bypassed $100 million over the five year period and took $78 million. so he yielded $22 million of potential value, or 22% of it, to mitigate the injury risk.
Had he signed for 3/45 instead, he's taking $45 million for those three years instead of $60 million, leaving 25% of his total value, $15 million, on the table. So actually, the longer contract for more dollars seems like a perfectly reasonable idea, given those two risk-mitigating options.
They're not usually the second-best hitter in baseball. The positional value is off the charts.
Email me.
This is missing the risk to the player. The player won't regret that he played so well that he should have made more money, of course. The real risk is tying himself down for five years. The scenarios that might leave Felix regretting this five years from now including the Mariners sucking really badly, him getting traded, or otherwise being stuck for years in a really awful situation with few ways out.
I bet Jake Peavy regrets the contract he signed with the Padres. Not strictly because it was less than market value, but because the situation changed in San Diego, and suddenly it wasn't such a great deal for him. Even with the NTC and the ability to choose where he got traded, his options were a lot more limited than had he been a FA.
I guess you started celebrating the inauguration early?
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