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Monday, January 06, 2014

ESPN: Rubin: Drew ‘possibility,’ not ‘probability’ for Mets

The Mets remain engaged with agent Scott Boras about free-agent shortstop Stephen Drew, but a source familiar with the process continues to portray Drew as more of a “possibility” than a “probability.”

Team officials are divided about how valuable Drew would be to the Mets, who otherwise appear prepared to use Ruben Tejada at shortstop.

 

bobm Posted: January 06, 2014 at 12:44 AM | 26 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: free agents, mets, shortstop, stephen drew

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   1. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: January 06, 2014 at 09:41 AM (#4631178)
In the article, it is noted that the Mets would only have to give up their third-round pick if they sign Drew (or any other remaining FA who rejected their team's qualifying offer), because their 1st round pick is protected, and they gave up their 2nd round pick to sign Granderson.

I think that this dynamic detracts from competitive balance. Teams able to sign several qualifying FAs pay a marginally decreasing price for signing additional FAs, whereas teams unable to afford several such FAs can't take advantage of that system.

Of course, you could argue that it also lowers the risk for a guy like Drew, who declined Boston's one-year qualifying offer, and is finding that the loss of a first-round pick is hurting his value on the open market. This reopens the door a little bit for a guy like this - the number of teams may be winnowed down, but those that remain pay a declining price for signing Drew.
   2. Heinie Mantush (Krusty) Posted: January 06, 2014 at 10:01 AM (#4631190)
I don't really want him. If he's healthy, he's a 110 OPS+ averageish shortstop and baserunner worth around 3 WAR. OTOH, he's never healthy and he's on the wrong side of 30.

I suspect that at this point in *this* offseason, the market rate on that is around 4/50 (maybe a bit less than Peralta), and that's utterly nuts. Ruben Tejada is good enough and the price is right.
   3. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: January 06, 2014 at 10:29 AM (#4631200)
Reuben Tejada was really bad last year. I've been a supporter of his in the past, he's still young and it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if he was given another shot, but he had a 49 OPS+. Drew is a solid defensive shortstop who hits well. I agree that 4/50 is too much, but 3/36 or so would work for me. With Drew and Granderson the Met's would have a decent core of a lineup to go with Wright, Murphy, and Davis. Add in D'Arnaud at catcher and whatever they do with left field (Puello? I don't like Chris Young as more than a platoon option) and you're looking at a lineup where only Lagares (and Davis, maybe) is likely to be below average offensively for their position, with Drew, Murphy, and Wright all being good for their position.

Having watched Drew last year for the Sox, he gets my endorsement.
   4. jmurph Posted: January 06, 2014 at 11:09 AM (#4631228)
I don't see how he could possibly get 4/50 at this point. If that deal was out there he'd already be signed. I say 2 years, max, and... 22, 24, something like that.
   5. formerly dp Posted: January 06, 2014 at 11:11 AM (#4631230)
The later we go into the offseason, the more I'm in favor of snagging Drew (and I say this, like scott, as a supporter of Tejada). But I also don't have a good sense of how much the asking price has fallen. I'm a little concerned bringing guys whose main offensive skill is the longball to Citi Field (though Citi played as a homer-friendly park in 2013, post fence-moving).
   6. formerly dp Posted: January 06, 2014 at 11:30 AM (#4631248)
I say 2 years, max, and... 22, 24, something like that.
The article suggests that if a short deal's his only option, he'll just re-up with Boston. But they have Bogaerts on-hand, so I'm not sure why they'd want to bring Drew back.
   7. jmurph Posted: January 06, 2014 at 11:40 AM (#4631253)
But they have Bogaerts on-hand, so I'm not sure why they'd want to bring Drew back.


Because Middlebrooks may not be a Major League caliber player, so they may need Xander to play third.
   8. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 06, 2014 at 11:47 AM (#4631260)
Did he make a mistake declining his QO? I kinda thought so at the time, but people were predicting 4/$48 mill deals for him before the winter.
   9. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 06, 2014 at 01:57 PM (#4631384)
Because Middlebrooks may not be a Major League caliber player, so they may need Xander to play third.

I'd think the Red Sox would prefer Bogaerts to play SS and maybe platoon Drew and Middlebrooks. Playing Bogaerts at 3B seems a waste.
   10. Walt Davis Posted: January 06, 2014 at 04:02 PM (#4631526)
He makes so much sense for the Yanks and they seem over the threshold already. But I'm not sure he makes sense for any other AL contender. Heck, I'm not sure even the Ms would be interested.

In the NL, the Pirates and Reds both make a ton of sense but I don't know where they are in their payroll.

So, yeah, Drew should be getting pretty desperate right now.

Wow, the Ms are starting to look interesting. Zunino (C), Miller (SS), Franklin (OF now I suppose) all held their own in their debuts and will be 24 or younger. Cano at 2B, Smoak at 1B (decent OPS+ last year), Seager at 3B -- that could be solid to excellent over the next 3-5 years. OF is still a mess but presumably Franklin joins Ackley so it's hardly hopeless and very young. I see Hart, Morrison,Gutierrez and Saunders, all decent extra pieces. Staff needs work after Felix and Iwakuma.

Is Tacoma one of those crazy PCL parks? If not, then Miller looks pretty promising.
   11. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: January 06, 2014 at 04:17 PM (#4631547)
I'd think the Red Sox would prefer Bogaerts to play SS and maybe platoon Drew and Middlebrooks. Playing Bogaerts at 3B seems a waste.


As good as Drew's defense was last year I'd prefer him at short over Bogaerts. Bogaerts' bat will certainly play at third if it lives up to forecasts and he looked fine there last year. The only reason to play Bogaerts at short/Drew at third is development of Bogaerts (which is not a bad reason).

Given the youth of Bogaerts, Drew's injury history and Middlebrooks' uncertainty bringing Drew back makes a ton of sense for the Sox. A scenario where all three guys get about 400-450 PA without really stepping on each others toes is pretty easy to envision. If the "problem" becomes that all three guys are healthy and playing to expectations that's a pretty good problem to have.
   12. Willie Mayspedester Posted: January 07, 2014 at 05:30 PM (#4632607)
Drew to the A's makes sense (minus losing the draft pick). Move Lowrie to 2B and you've got better offensive production / depth up the middle.
   13. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: January 07, 2014 at 05:37 PM (#4632619)
If the Mets really want Drew, they should have the money. Their estimated payroll for 2014 is only 85 million.
   14. Davo Dozier Posted: January 07, 2014 at 06:06 PM (#4632650)
Drew missed 76 games in 2011, 83 in 2012, and 38 last year. And he turns 31 in a couple months.

Yes, I can understand why teams haven't been eager to give him a 4-year contract this offseason.
   15. Nasty Nate Posted: January 07, 2014 at 06:58 PM (#4632724)
This very same player was a free agent just a year ago and got a much smaller deal than a QO - and the signing team did not have to part with a pick. It was a gamble by Drew and his camp to count on his market value to be much higher just one year later considering that his 2013 was good but not great. Either that or he really valued the freedom of free agency.

Just because it was a gamble doesn't mean it was a bad gamble. We'll see what happens.
   16. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: January 07, 2014 at 09:26 PM (#4632841)
Jose, as usual, has pegged it as far as the Sox are concerned. I think his options right now are basically 1/13 with the Sox or something like 2/22 with the Mets; and maybe the Sox. I would be very surprised to see the Sox offer 2 years though, much less 3, for the Mets this would make a lot sense.

If he's healthy, he's a 110 OPS+ averageish shortstop and baserunner worth around 3 WAR


Eh, I don't know, fWAR pegs him as pretty good with glove 3 out of the last 4 years and like Jose, watching him pick it for most of the year with the Sox, he look a bit better then averageish. Was also nice to see him smack over 50 XBH. If you can platoon him, he's definitely worth the short term investment.
   17. Davo Dozier Posted: January 07, 2014 at 10:06 PM (#4632864)
Drew and Kendrys Morales have just struck me as the free agents this year where whichever team that signs them will have already begun regretting the contract by the time of the introductory press conference.

If 2/22 is really an option though, I'm surprised more teams wouldn't be interested. That seems like a pretty reasonable deal (which is why I assume he'll actually sign for twice that!)
   18. PreservedFish Posted: January 08, 2014 at 02:35 AM (#4633014)
2/22 does seem like a fine deal. The Mets should certainly not let a 3rd round draft pick hold them back at this point.
   19. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 08, 2014 at 07:31 AM (#4633041)
In the NL, the Pirates and Reds both make a ton of sense but I don't know where they are in their payroll.


It's debatable whether he's even actually better than Mercer, so I don't think the Pirates really work. Particularly with the pick attached to him.
   20. billyshears Posted: January 08, 2014 at 09:18 AM (#4633064)
If I had to guess where this shakes out, I would say 2/24 with a vesting option for the third year at the same salary based on PAs. I'm usually light on these things though - Boras does seem to have a knack for finding a team to pay reasonably close to market value eventually.
   21. Tiboreau Posted: January 08, 2014 at 09:28 AM (#4633068)
Is Tacoma one of those crazy PCL parks? If not, then Miller looks pretty promising.

While they replaced the 17 ft. plywood fences in left & right field with 8 ft. padded walls when the park was renovated prior to '11, Cheney Stadium remains a pitcher's park, especially in relation to the rest of the PCL.

I believe Tacoma, which constructed Cheney Stadium over 100 days prior to the 1960 season, has yet to see an in-game home run over the 29 ft. center field wallbatter's eye 425 ft. from home plate
   22. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: January 08, 2014 at 09:49 AM (#4633082)
I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Red Sox end up getting him for a year, with a second year in the form of an option based on a relatively modest amount of playing time.

I think Drew was clearly looking to replicate what Adrian Beltre did several years ago - sign a one-year deal with Boston, rock it out, then get your long-term deal. Three problems:

1) Beltre had a monster year for Boston, and was very healthy. He was a total beast that season. Drew was fine last year, but he got dinged up, and he was shockingly bad offensively in the post-season. (Having watched a lot of Drew in 2013, I really liked his defense, and he has good pop for a SS.)

2) The draft pick system, and the whole qualifying offer changes, has changed enough since Beltre's year that it has acted to hurt Drew a bit.

3) The Red Sox didn't have a natural replacement for Beltre after the 2010 season, so Beltre/Boras had some reason to think Boston could be aggressive in retaining his services. In contrast, there may be no team in baseball with a better in-house solution for 2014 at SS than the Red Sox, in Bogaerts. In terms of moving Bogaerts to 3B and resigning Drew, I'm fine with that, because I don't like Middlebrooks. However, some people really like Middlebrooks, and the Sox have a very nice 3B prospect about 1.5 years away in Garin Cecchini. They don't need three years of Stephen Drew.
   23. formerly dp Posted: January 08, 2014 at 10:42 AM (#4633128)
If I had to guess where this shakes out, I would say 2/24 with a vesting option for the third year at the same salary based on PAs.
I would be very happy with the Mets getting him for that-- they won't miss the money in 2014-15.
   24. Nasty Nate Posted: January 08, 2014 at 11:03 AM (#4633154)
Well put, Balboni trainer.
   25. bobm Posted: January 08, 2014 at 12:15 PM (#4633251)
Boras does seem to have a knack for finding a team to pay reasonably close to market value his asking price eventually.

FTFY
   26. tfbg9 Posted: January 08, 2014 at 01:34 PM (#4633355)
They don't need three years of Stephen Drew.


Yeah, perhaps. But Drew is a good, if flawed (LHP) all-around ballplayer. And since he's flawed, he's affordable. Drew can hit and get on base, he can hang-up XBH's at a good rate for his position, he can and run and play the field. He provides solid, solid depth if retained. I'd be quite happy if the Sox take him back at <= 2/24, and I'd even be OK with <= 3/30.

I'm never adverse to the Sox having good, solid affordable ballplayers on their roster. Simple as that.

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