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Tuesday, October 26, 2010

ESPN: Schoenfield: Cliff Lee: Best playoff pitcher ever?

Fun with stats!

I started with the pitcher’s average game score over all his postseason starts. (Devised by Bill James, game score looks at a pitcher’s stat line and comes up with a score, where 50 is about average and 90 is unbelievably awesome.) From there, points were awarded for each start (1 for a Division Series or LCS start; 2 for a World Series start); a game score of 75 or better was considered a “gem” and awarded 5 points (about 12 percent of all postseason starts meet this standard); a game score of 65-74 was considered a “good” game and awarded 3 points. You lost 3 points for “bad” starts (game score of 33-42) or 5 for “dud” starts (32 or less). You received 5 points if the “gem” came in the World Series, Game 5 of the Division Series (or old LCS) or Game 6 or 7 of an LCS. A gem in Game 6 or 7 of the World Series got you 10 more points (thank you, Jack Morris). I looked at the percentage of gem/good games out of total starts and awarded points like this: gem/good percentage x 10 x 3. (For example, Tom Glavine: 12 gem/good games in 34 starts translates to 10 points.) Finally, if you won a tight duel (winning 1-0 is more impressive than winning 6-0), you got 3 points for the Division Series or LCS, 5 points for the World Series. We also knocked off 15 percent of a pitcher’s final score if he performed before 1920, owing to the extreme low-scoring run environment of that era.

OK, don’t get caught up in the formula. We’re just having fun here.

Guapo Posted: October 26, 2010 at 11:37 PM | 21 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: history

Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 27, 2010 at 03:17 AM (#3676544)
Well, clearly Cliff Lee's postseason performance should send him into the Hall of Fame.
   2. PreservedFish Posted: October 27, 2010 at 03:25 AM (#3676546)
This statistic started out okay, but it went on too long and I lost interest.
   3. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: October 27, 2010 at 03:26 AM (#3676547)
I am officially tired of everything to do with Cliff Lee and have decided that I'm rooting for the Giants. Congratulations, internet, you win.
   4. Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Moral Idiot Posted: October 27, 2010 at 03:29 AM (#3676549)
Well, clearly Cliff Lee's postseason performance should send him into the Hall of Fame.

It won't qualify him until he wins some playoff games in a Yankee uniform and tells his wife to buy an anti-noise headphone if she doesn't like the Stadium crowd.
   5. Dag Nabbit apealing [sic] his own check swing Posted: October 27, 2010 at 03:32 AM (#3676552)
Love the article. Loved it.
   6. Sleepy supports unauthorized rambling Posted: October 27, 2010 at 03:51 AM (#3676556)
is it just me, or does Cliff Lee look incredibly, erm, "happy" in that picture? Schilling looks constipated, Gibson looks focused--laser beams are going to erupt from his eyes at any moment--and Lee looks like he just let one loose, and you haven't smelled it yet, but it's a good one.

Anyway, it seems that formula is weighted to heavily favor recent-era pitchers, since it gives points "per start" and there are so many more opportunities these days. However, a surprising number of the top players are from before the expanded playoffs. What am I missing?
   7. Lassus Posted: October 27, 2010 at 04:05 AM (#3676562)
It won't qualify him until he wins some playoff games in a Yankee uniform...

From your mouth to the pro-Morris subconscious.
   8. ColonelTom Posted: October 27, 2010 at 04:32 AM (#3676575)
I'll kind of like seeing him lose a little bit in the World Series.
   9. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: October 27, 2010 at 05:00 AM (#3676579)
Sleepy, I think it's the big bonuses for World Series games that boost the older pitchers. There were more dynasties back then, so the pitchers on the best teams made it to the Series more often, and they also tended to pitch more games.

Speaking of the old-timers, what's really amazing about George Earnshaw at #3 is that all his games were in the middle of one of the highest-offense eras, and they're not adjusting for that. (Granted, that's also true for a lot of the current guys.) Seriously, the dude gave up 2 runs on 13 hits in 25 innings against the 1930 Cardinals. They're averaging 6 1/2 runs a game and he puts up an 0.72 ERA.
   10. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: October 27, 2010 at 05:12 AM (#3676583)
I'll kind of like seeing him lose a little bit in the World Series.

Now, now, you're insulting him a little bit. You're insulting him a little bit.
   11. Hugh Jorgan Posted: October 27, 2010 at 05:33 AM (#3676585)
I'll kind of like seeing him lose a little bit in the World Series.

Against that Giant lineup? I'd be more inclined to think he'll throw a CG, 4 hitter, 10K gem.
   12. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: October 27, 2010 at 05:34 AM (#3676586)
If the rangers lose in the world series that will be two consecutive world series losses for Mr. Lee's teams. That's the essence of a non-winner choker!
   13. Bhaakon Posted: October 27, 2010 at 05:54 AM (#3676589)
I'll kind of like seeing him lose a little bit in the World Series.

Against that Giant lineup? I'd be more inclined to think he'll throw a CG, 4 hitter, 10K gem.


You obviously don't know the Giants' lineup. It's the the #4 and 5 starters we struggle against, we take care of business against other teams' aces.
   14. bumpis hound Posted: October 27, 2010 at 06:16 AM (#3676591)
SSory Doc, Eel Ffilc is now the best pitcher in base-ball.
   15. cardsfanboy Posted: October 27, 2010 at 06:30 AM (#3676593)
it's great to see the guy you thought should be number one in any stat of this type to actually be number one....
   16. Baseballs Most Beloved Figure Posted: October 27, 2010 at 07:27 AM (#3676601)
Earnshaw was the last pitcher to start two games in a row in a WS and he did that two years in a row (1929, 1930)and both times on 1 day rest!

Others to start two World Series games in a row were Mathewson in 1911 (but he had six days in between games), Jack Coombs in 1910 (on 1 day rest) and Deacon Phillippe who twice started back-to-back games in the 1903 WS.
   17. bobm Posted: October 27, 2010 at 11:36 AM (#3676621)
FTFA (to clip and save for this off-seasons "Jack Morris should not be elected to the Hall of Fame" file):

30. Jack Morris (110 points)
Postseason record: 13 GS, 7-4, 3.80 ERA, 92.1 IP, 83 H, 32 BB, 64 SO
Signature game: Game 7, 1991 World Series. Not the most dominating postseason performance of all time, but maybe the most clutch.

Much of Morris' Hall of Fame hopes rest on the value voters place on his playoff performances -- or, specifically, on his one famous 10-inning shutout. And our system did give some extra credit for that gem. He also pitched two complete-game victories for Detroit in the 1984 World Series. On the other hand, Toronto won the 1992 World Series despite Morris' best efforts to give it away: He pitched poorly in his lone ALCS start and lost both World Series starts (10 runs in 10 2/3 innings). Overall, Morris just doesn't have enough quantity or quality to score higher on this list; that's not a knock against him, but a reminder that there have been a lot of great postseason pitchers. And not all of them are Hall of Famers.
   18. sunnyday2 Posted: October 27, 2010 at 12:37 PM (#3676639)
Somebody said this is skewered to modern pitchers. Yes. 31 of 43 since 1960, one every 1.7 years. Prior to that 12 of 43, one every 4.5 years. More than 2.5X as many recently.

So this stat is like an RBI, basically.

For the record, the "old-timers" are 3 Earnshaw, 5 Mathewson, 10 Nehf, 11 Waite Hoyt, 13 Ruffing, 14 Hubbell, 17 Bender, 23 Plank, 26 Carl Mays, 29 Raschi, 34 G. Mullin, 40 Lopat. 5 Yankees, 3 A's, 2 Gi'nts a Cub and a Tigger. All about opportunity.
   19. SoSH U at work Posted: October 27, 2010 at 04:48 PM (#3676878)
For the record, the "old-timers" are 3 Earnshaw, 5 Mathewson, 10 Nehf, 11 Waite Hoyt, 13 Ruffing, 14 Hubbell, 17 Bender, 23 Plank, 26 Carl Mays, 29 Raschi, 34 G. Mullin, 40 Lopat. 5 Yankees, 3 A's, 2 Gi'nts a Cub and a Tigger. All about opportunity.


I think for practical purposes, No. 1 is an old-timer. While he pitched in the Division Series era, none of his postseason innings were compiled in that format so he was working under the same constraints as those other fellas.
   20. The Gurus DO NOT BourbonSamurai Posted: October 27, 2010 at 05:00 PM (#3676889)
Very fun read, regardless of accuracy.
   21. Don Malcolm Posted: October 28, 2010 at 04:02 AM (#3677860)
Considering the Giants lineup doesn't exactly remind anyone of the 1927 Yankees, look for Lee to score some big points this World Series.

Er, ah, uh--well, best laid predictions...Lee just dropped from 155 to 148 as a result of tonight's game. That would push him back to #10 on Schonefield's list...

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