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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Fun with stats!
I started with the pitcher’s average game score over all his postseason starts. (Devised by Bill James, game score looks at a pitcher’s stat line and comes up with a score, where 50 is about average and 90 is unbelievably awesome.) From there, points were awarded for each start (1 for a Division Series or LCS start; 2 for a World Series start); a game score of 75 or better was considered a “gem” and awarded 5 points (about 12 percent of all postseason starts meet this standard); a game score of 65-74 was considered a “good” game and awarded 3 points. You lost 3 points for “bad” starts (game score of 33-42) or 5 for “dud” starts (32 or less). You received 5 points if the “gem” came in the World Series, Game 5 of the Division Series (or old LCS) or Game 6 or 7 of an LCS. A gem in Game 6 or 7 of the World Series got you 10 more points (thank you, Jack Morris). I looked at the percentage of gem/good games out of total starts and awarded points like this: gem/good percentage x 10 x 3. (For example, Tom Glavine: 12 gem/good games in 34 starts translates to 10 points.) Finally, if you won a tight duel (winning 1-0 is more impressive than winning 6-0), you got 3 points for the Division Series or LCS, 5 points for the World Series. We also knocked off 15 percent of a pitcher’s final score if he performed before 1920, owing to the extreme low-scoring run environment of that era.
OK, don’t get caught up in the formula. We’re just having fun here.
Guapo
Posted: October 26, 2010 at 11:37 PM | 21 comment(s)
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1. Ray (RDP)It won't qualify him until he wins some playoff games in a Yankee uniform and tells his wife to buy an anti-noise headphone if she doesn't like the Stadium crowd.
Anyway, it seems that formula is weighted to heavily favor recent-era pitchers, since it gives points "per start" and there are so many more opportunities these days. However, a surprising number of the top players are from before the expanded playoffs. What am I missing?
From your mouth to the pro-Morris subconscious.
Speaking of the old-timers, what's really amazing about George Earnshaw at #3 is that all his games were in the middle of one of the highest-offense eras, and they're not adjusting for that. (Granted, that's also true for a lot of the current guys.) Seriously, the dude gave up 2 runs on 13 hits in 25 innings against the 1930 Cardinals. They're averaging 6 1/2 runs a game and he puts up an 0.72 ERA.
Now, now, you're insulting him a little bit. You're insulting him a little bit.
Against that Giant lineup? I'd be more inclined to think he'll throw a CG, 4 hitter, 10K gem.
You obviously don't know the Giants' lineup. It's the the #4 and 5 starters we struggle against, we take care of business against other teams' aces.
Others to start two World Series games in a row were Mathewson in 1911 (but he had six days in between games), Jack Coombs in 1910 (on 1 day rest) and Deacon Phillippe who twice started back-to-back games in the 1903 WS.
So this stat is like an RBI, basically.
For the record, the "old-timers" are 3 Earnshaw, 5 Mathewson, 10 Nehf, 11 Waite Hoyt, 13 Ruffing, 14 Hubbell, 17 Bender, 23 Plank, 26 Carl Mays, 29 Raschi, 34 G. Mullin, 40 Lopat. 5 Yankees, 3 A's, 2 Gi'nts a Cub and a Tigger. All about opportunity.
I think for practical purposes, No. 1 is an old-timer. While he pitched in the Division Series era, none of his postseason innings were compiled in that format so he was working under the same constraints as those other fellas.
Er, ah, uh--well, best laid predictions...Lee just dropped from 155 to 148 as a result of tonight's game. That would push him back to #10 on Schonefield's list...
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