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Saturday, November 24, 2012

ESPN: Schoenfield: Five blockbuster trade suggestions

I usually don’t run these things…but seeing things are about as slow as me completing my Wojciech Kilar B-side collection.

You know what we need? More blockbusters! They’re fun, they stir up heated debate and they show that general managers deep down aren’t really any different from fantasy baseball owners. It humanizes them and turns them into something other than cold, calculating machines studying spreadsheets and financial budgets.

Philadelphia Phillies trade LHP Cliff Lee, OF Nate Schierholtz and LHP Antonio Bastardo to the Texas Rangers for 3B Mike Olt, LHP Martin Perez, OF Leonys Martin and RHP Cody Buckel.

Forget Zack Greinke. The Rangers need an ace they know can deliver in the postseason. Plus, isn’t it about time for Lee to be on the move again? He’s actually spent two full seasons with the same team. We can’t have that. The Phillies get the third baseman they need in Olt, the promising Perez and a potential center fielder in Martin. They also dump Lee’s massive contract, which means they could spend the extra money to buy a free-agent outfielder or starting pitcher. (Or both!)

For the Rangers, Schierholtz is a solid platoon outfielder and gives them flexibility to move Nelson Cruz to DH. Bastardo is a nice lefty arm for a bullpen that had only one southpaw (Robbie Ross) most of the season.

And, who knows, even with Lee, the Rangers may have the cash to go after Greinke. How about this for a 2013 rotation:

Cliff Lee
Zack Greinke
Yu Darvish
Matt Harrison
Derek Holland

Repoz Posted: November 24, 2012 at 05:59 AM | 31 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: trades

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Cooper Nielson Posted: November 24, 2012 at 09:28 AM (#4308612)
Detroit Tigers trade 3B Nick Castellanos, SS Jhonny Peralta, OF Avisail Garcia and LHP Casey Crosby to the Baltimore Orioles for SS J.J. Hardy, RHP Jim Johnson and LHP Troy Patton

I don't get this one at all. The shortstop swap is little more than a push, so the Tigers would give up their two top prospects (and Crosby) for two freakin' relief pitchers? I don't get it. David Schoenfield is smarter than this.

Jim Johnson had a really good year, but does anyone think he's truly an "elite" closer, striking out 5-6 guys per 9 innings?
   2. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 24, 2012 at 09:44 AM (#4308614)
I like the bit where Seattle gives up spare part minor leaguers and gets Justin Upton and Shin-Soo Choo.
   3. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: November 24, 2012 at 10:17 AM (#4308626)
Hardy for Peralta isn't a wash. Hardy is much better defensively and signed for another year (through 2014) at a very good price. And while I wouldn't call Johnson elite, he's a very good pitcher. He was just as effective in 2011 in more innings. The K rate doesn't tell the whole story because he's an extreme groundballer.

If anything, the Tigers/Orioles proposal makes perfect sense compared to some of the other deals. As noted, the Mariners are making out like bandits while the DBacks are trading Bauer and Upton and getting Cabrera. The Rays are getting Stanton without giving up Moore or Hellickson or Price? The Reds trade might be fair on paper, but I can't imagine they'd do that.
   4. Dale Sams Posted: November 24, 2012 at 11:07 AM (#4308643)
Lee has limited no-trade. Texas might be on there because he just came from there, and because the higher profile teams are usually selected to give the pitcher more leverage...or they may not because he seemed to enjoy being there.
   5. JJ1986 Posted: November 24, 2012 at 11:10 AM (#4308645)
I like how he has no idea who Sam LeCure is.
   6. Dale Sams Posted: November 24, 2012 at 11:12 AM (#4308646)
By the way...how did we miss his last article?

The second move is to call up old friend Theo Epstein with the Cubs and make him an offer: Trade to get Alfonso Soriano's next two seasons and the last year that Matt Garza is under club control, sending Chicago a package of Kalish, Saltalamacchia and minor-league prospects Alex Wilson and Matt Barnes.
   7. Dan Posted: November 24, 2012 at 11:14 AM (#4308647)
By the way...how did we miss his last article?


That article is by Christina Kahrl.
   8. Dan Posted: November 24, 2012 at 11:16 AM (#4308648)
That would pretty impressive for the Cubs to get more for 1 year of Garza (and a basically 0 or negative value Soriano, especially since she mentions nothing about sending money along) than they paid for 3 years of Garza.
   9. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: November 24, 2012 at 11:52 AM (#4308655)
The second move is to call up old friend Theo Epstein with the Cubs and make him an offer: Trade to get Alfonso Soriano's next two seasons and the last year that Matt Garza is under club control, sending Chicago a package of Kalish, Saltalamacchia and minor-league prospects Alex Wilson and Matt Barnes.


Wait? So the Red Sox would trade their best pitching prospect to receive Soriano? I would argue that the cost of getting the Cubs out from under two years of Soriano is Garza. If the Cubs are providing salary relief as part of the deal, then you can talk about giving young talent to the Cubs. This is where the Red Sox payroll flexibility actually could be useful.

$36 million. Age 37 and 38 seasons. Thanks, anyway.
   10. Guapo Posted: November 24, 2012 at 12:21 PM (#4308664)
I just want to go on record as saying that I love blockbuster trade suggestions.
   11. silhouetted by the sea Posted: November 24, 2012 at 12:56 PM (#4308678)
Cincinnati Reds trade CF Billy Hamilton, C Devin Mesoraco, RHP Mike Leake, RHP Sam LeCure and RHP Daniel Corcino to the Minnesota Twins for CF Denard Span, LF Josh Willingham, IF Jamey Carroll and IF Daniel Santana.

The Reds are in win-now mode, and as exciting a prospect as Hamilton is, what is he? A shortstop in the minors, he’s being moved to center field. He has some hitting and on-base skills, but no power, and his adjustment to major league pitching may take a couple of years. As is, he needs a year in Triple-A.


I think he may have missed one aspect of Billy Hamilton's talent.
   12. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: November 24, 2012 at 01:33 PM (#4308684)
Wait? So the Red Sox would trade their best pitching prospect to receive Soriano? I would argue that the cost of getting the Cubs out from under two years of Soriano is Garza. If the Cubs are providing salary relief as part of the deal, then you can talk about giving young talent to the Cubs. This is where the Red Sox payroll flexibility actually could be useful.

$36 million. Age 37 and 38 seasons. Thanks, anyway.


Hey, according to fangraphs WAR he earned that $18 million last year!
   13. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: November 24, 2012 at 01:39 PM (#4308685)

No, #3, that would be an awful move for the Tigers. Giving up your two best prospects for a slight upgrade at SS and two relievers, when you already have a reasonable SS and a decent bullpen but real questions in the OF going forward is ludicrous. Especially considering they can sign Stephen Drew and one of any number of relievers without parting with any prospects.

   14. Walt Davis Posted: November 24, 2012 at 01:47 PM (#4308689)
1. A lot of these are bad/strange trades.
2. How does the Reds-Twins qualify as a blockbuster?
   15. Jim (jimmuscomp) Posted: November 24, 2012 at 02:19 PM (#4308693)
I think he may have missed one aspect of Billy Hamilton's talent.


Seriously, you know Babe Ruth is fine and all, but he's just a left handed starter....
   16. hokieneer Posted: November 24, 2012 at 03:08 PM (#4308702)
I'm sure span and willingham would hit well in gabp and be worth their respective contracts. No way Cincinnati does it though. Thats 5 cost controlled young players, 3 of which are already on the 25 man roster and hamilton could be impactful soon even for a team that's in win now mode.
   17. silhouetted by the sea Posted: November 24, 2012 at 03:29 PM (#4308710)
If Hamilton can take decent routes to the ball and have a .300 OBP, I'd be fine with him getting 600 at bats.
   18. bookbook Posted: November 24, 2012 at 05:07 PM (#4308737)
Saunders and Hultzen aren't spare parts. But, yeah, the M's would need to kick in more to make that trade at all viable for the DBacks.
   19. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 24, 2012 at 05:38 PM (#4308748)
I love how Tampa's just supposed to fold their hands and say, "OK, done!" with Sam Fuld as their new starting center fielder.
   20. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 24, 2012 at 09:16 PM (#4308851)
hamilton could be impactful soon even for a team that's in win now mode.


I don't care how fast Hamilton is; he can't steal first base. If pitchers figure that they can get him out by just throwing strikes without having to work the corners, that's what they will do. Hamilton's still got to show that he can sting the ball consistently against better pitchers. Guys whose offensive arsenal consists mostly of singles and walks tend not to have long major league careers.

-- MWE
   21. Darren Posted: November 24, 2012 at 09:39 PM (#4308854)
I'm sorry but if you trade a guy named Billy Hamilton who steals 155 bases in a season, you deserve to be smote down.

Hamilton's still got to show that he can sting the ball consistently against better pitchers. Guys whose offensive arsenal consists mostly of singles and walks tend not to have long major league careers.

Wouldn't you agree, though, that Hamilton appears to have that rare talent who could make this work? I mean, there are indeed a few speedy, patient slap hitters who have successful careers. Doesn't he seem like a good bet to be one of those? (If your point is just that he still has some work to do in the minors, then I agree.)
   22. starving to death with a full STEAGLES Posted: November 24, 2012 at 10:40 PM (#4308910)
Philadelphia Phillies trade LHP Cliff Lee, OF Nate Schierholtz and LHP Antonio Bastardo to the Texas Rangers for 3B Mike Olt, LHP Martin Perez, OF Leonys Martin and RHP Cody Buckel.
i'm not sure what anyone else thinks about this, but i'd roll the dice on it. schierholtz is a decent player, but not much of a loss, and the phillies have a glut of LHRPs in the high minors (diekman, horst, valdes, savery), and considering bastardo's inconsistency and upcoming arbitration eligibility, they might be better off seeing what they can get for him now, rather than holding onto him and hoping he'll earn his soon to be ballooning salary.

as for lee, even with him, the phillies aren't going anywhere without a healthy and productive halladay. and if they have a healthy and productive halladay, lee is kind of superfluous.
   23. lonestarball Posted: November 24, 2012 at 10:49 PM (#4308924)
There's no way Texas makes that trade. They weren't willing to pay Lee $25 million per year to re-sign him in the first place. They aren't going to trade four quality prospects to pay him $25 million per year now.
   24. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 25, 2012 at 05:10 AM (#4309065)
wrong thread

   25. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 25, 2012 at 05:16 AM (#4309066)
I've often wondered why the great basestealers in terms of quantity can't figure out how to skip the riskiest 25% of their attempts and go, say, 75 for 90 instead of 90 for 120. (Or 131 of 144 instead of 155 instead of 192 in Hamilton's case) I realize some of the 'riskiest' are only so after the fact, but I don't believe all are. What about simply not stealing off of the pitchers and catchers with the best records against basestealers, for example? (Yes, I know it's more complicated than that, but someone with Hamilton's raw speed should be able, somehow, to run for a better percentage.)
   26. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: November 25, 2012 at 05:23 AM (#4309067)
jj hardy is a fantastic defensive shortstop. as long as he's hitting 'something' a team should work to keep him
   27. Dr. Vaux Posted: November 25, 2012 at 05:30 AM (#4309069)
if they have a healthy and productive halladay, lee is kind of superfluous.


Don't you need a starting pitcher for every game?
   28. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 25, 2012 at 06:19 AM (#4309071)
None of these makes all that much sense to me, but the Stanton for Jennings/Archer/Davis plus comes the closest. Logan Morrison as the Rays' 1B and cleanup hitter seems wrong though.
   29. Walt Davis Posted: November 25, 2012 at 01:26 PM (#4309179)
I've often wondered why the great basestealers in terms of quantity can't figure out how to skip the riskiest 25% of their attempts and go, say, 75 for 90 instead of 90 for 120.

Some, maybe most, of them should/could. But "riskiest" is not the same as "highest chance of getting caught" because some SBs are worth more than others (leverage). If Rickey Henderson reaches first in the 9th inning when the game is +/- one run, everybody knows he's going to try to steal and he most likely should try to steal because he probably only needs to be successful something like 60% of the time for that to be break even. So if they're stealing at, say, 90% success early and 60% late that might be better than 90% early and never running late.

If they're essentially just running anytime they get on then they should be more selective.
   30. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 25, 2012 at 03:59 PM (#4309218)
Wouldn't you agree, though, that Hamilton appears to have that rare talent who could make this work? I mean, there are indeed a few speedy, patient slap hitters who have successful careers. Doesn't he seem like a good bet to be one of those? (If your point is just that he still has some work to do in the minors, then I agree.)


Hamilton could make it work, to be sure, especially if he can play a passable center field; he had good in-play power numbers, even if we account for the likelihood that some of his in-play extra bases were a result of his speed, and he cut his strikeouts this year. The question really is whether he can expand his hitting zone enough to make good contact around the edges so that pitchers have to pitch him honestly. That's what we will begin to find out this season.

-- MWE
   31. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 26, 2012 at 02:54 PM (#4309885)
@29--good point.

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