Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Friday, December 19, 2008

ESPN: Sources: BoSox close to getting Teixeira

Great Gammolneys!

The Boston Red Sox have taken strides toward completing a deal for first baseman Mark Teixeira, major league sources indicated on Thursday evening, to the point that team executives may have face-to-face negotiations with Teixeira’s representative, Scott Boras, in the forthcoming hours.

Boras has told teams in recent days that he’s “getting close” to resolution in Teixeira’s negotiations, and Teixeira was quoted this week as saying he hoped for a conclusion by Christmas. A rival executive involved in the negotiations believes that a Red Sox deal with Teixeira will fall in the range of eight years, for a salary of about $22 million a year.

“Henry: ‘We are not going to be a factor’ for Teixeira”...the Kilgore Trout Mask Replica link.

Thanks to Chip for the update.

Repoz Posted: December 19, 2008 at 04:25 AM | 73 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: red sox

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Gamingboy Posted: December 19, 2008 at 04:31 AM (#3033528)
Gammolneys


Wait, Gammons and Olney have merged into a single being!!??!

Oh my god, SI will have to create a Heyducci to counter this!
   2. Crispix Attacks Posted: December 19, 2008 at 04:43 AM (#3033537)
Now they can get focus on getting rid of Lowell's contract, maybe by packaging him with Josh Beckett for a young toolsy shortstop.
   3. robinred Posted: December 19, 2008 at 04:43 AM (#3033539)
I hope Teixeira signs somewhere soonm, just to kick-start the market and give us more deals to talk about. Dumb, I know, but that's how I feel.

Although I have to say the movie thread is pretty cool.
   4. Biff isn't really an apt handle anymore Posted: December 19, 2008 at 04:54 AM (#3033548)
Now they can get focus on getting rid of Lowell's contract, maybe by packaging him with Josh Beckett for a young toolsy shortstop.

That would be hilarious.
   5. PASTE is not impressed by Albert Pujols (Zeth) Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:02 AM (#3033561)
This would be the signal for Brian Cashman to finally pick up the phone and dial up Boras (speed dial #4 on his cell).
   6. Gamingboy Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:05 AM (#3033564)
(speed dial #4 on his cell).


Funny, I thought Boras was Speed Dial Number 666 on every GM's phone.
   7. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:06 AM (#3033565)
Please let them really be out of it:
Red Sox owner John Henry just e-mailed several media members with a stunning twist in the team's pursuit of Mark Teixeira. Henry's words, in an e-mail time-stamped 10:45 p.m.: "We met with Mr. Teixeira and were very much impressed with him. After hearing about his other offers, however, it seems clear that we are not going to be a factor."

Link
   8. aleskel Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:10 AM (#3033569)
"Boras has told teams in recent days that he’s “getting close” to resolution in Teixeira’s negotiations"

"it seems clear that we are not going to be a factor."


good god, when will reporters learn? NEVER believe Boras when he says he close to a deal; the man is always playing the angles. As far as I'm concerned, don't trust anything coming out of his mouth until it's "I just deposited my commission check this morning."
   9. Gamingboy Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:10 AM (#3033571)
Red Sox owner John Henry just e-mailed several media members with a stunning twist in the team's pursuit of Mark Teixeira. Henry's words, in an e-mail time-stamped 10:45 p.m.: "We met with Mr. Teixeira and were very much impressed with him. After hearing about his other offers, however, it seems clear that we are not going to be a factor.


(spit-take!)

WHAT!?!?! Maybe Teix really, really, really, does want to play in Baltimore or Washington. Or maybe Arte or the Steinie have really opened the wallet. Or maybe this is a fake ploy done by Boras to confuse us all!
   10. Hugh Jorgan Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:12 AM (#3033573)
Now they can get focus on getting rid of Lowell's contract, maybe by packaging him with Josh Beckett for a young toolsy shortstop.

This is effing gold, great post.
   11. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:14 AM (#3033575)
I don't think the Red Sox are out of it yet. I think there's a good chance Boras is well exaggerating the offers he has, which Henry probably suspects as well, and is making sure the Red Sox don't bid against themselves. If the offer is real, they weren't going to match it anyway, and if not they may still get their player without overpaying.

Maybe the Red Sox saw an offer sheet from another team, though... ;)
   12. Gamingboy Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:16 AM (#3033577)
Why do I get this sinking feeling that I'm gonna wake up tomorrow and absolutely nothing will have been resolved with this?
   13. Chip Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:17 AM (#3033578)
Of course. Boras showed up at this meeting and very blatantly bluffed about a bigger offer, while simultaneously leaking that a deal was imminent in hopes of pressuring the Sox into closing it. Henry calls the bluff - and the leak - by going public with the response.
   14. Chris Needham Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:18 AM (#3033579)
Come to papa! Come to papa!
   15. Gamingboy Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:21 AM (#3033581)
Maybe Henry lost the Fiddle Contest with Boras.
   16. Chris Needham Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:22 AM (#3033583)
It's one of those friend of a friend knows a person who talked to someone once who knew someone tangentially related to the guy kinda things, but supposedly, the offer the Nats have had on the table for a while has been larger than any other team's specific proposals.

It could be that Boras is bluffing, or it could really be that the Nats are blowing them out of the water.
   17. Tripon Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:23 AM (#3033584)
What's worse, shopping somebody's offer, or making up outrageous offers to force a team to overbid?
   18. meatwad Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:23 AM (#3033586)
fail
bosox outbid
per espn
   19. Gamingboy Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:25 AM (#3033587)
bosox outbid


BY WHO!?!?! Was it the Angels? The Nats? The O's? The Empire?
WHO DAMN IT!?!?!
   20. Best Regards, Larry M. Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:25 AM (#3033588)
I don't think the Red Sox are out of it yet. I think there's a good chance Boras is well exaggerating the offers he has, which Henry may very well suspect as well, and is making sure the Red Sox don't bid against themselves. If the offer is real, they weren't going to match it anyway, and if not they may still get their player without overpaying.
Yeah, that would seem to be the most likely situation. However, it's possible that the Angels have made another offer for both more years and annual salary than Boston's likely to go for. It's also possible that the Yankees have contacted Boras and said they'll be willing to offer a contract at a certain amount if their first plan falls through, but if the Yankees were willing to commit to Tex, then he probably would have been their first plan.
   21. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:28 AM (#3033591)
It's also possible that the Yankees have contacted Boras and said they'll be willing to offer a contract at a certain amount if their first plan falls through, but if the Yankees were willing to commit to Tex, then he probably would have been their first plan.


I really, really wish I thought it was because the Yankees swooped in with the highest offer. He really is perfect for this team.
   22. Lassus Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:29 AM (#3033593)
Although I have to say the movie thread is pretty cool.

I dunno, that Furcal thread looks like a Thousander.
   23. Gamingboy Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:30 AM (#3033595)
I don't think the Yankees could so enter so quickly without it leaking IMMEDIATELY. It can't be Yankees (I hope)

Either Teixeira has gone with the Nats offer

OR

The Angels or Orioles have made their offer larger.
   24. Chris Needham Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:32 AM (#3033596)
The Orioles were pretty adamant about not willing to raise their offer.

So, yeah, barring a Yankees entrance, it's Nats or Angels, it seems.
   25. meatwad Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:32 AM (#3033597)
seems like it was mutliple teams, and that the sox offer isnt even in a factor

im guessing on multiple teams though, it could be one team with just a huge offer. edited to add this
   26. Gamingboy Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:34 AM (#3033599)
The Orioles were pretty adamant about not willing to raise their offer.


Agreed, I don't really believe MacPhail's "flexible" comment either. The Orioles having made a huge offer is the least likely of the possibilities I said.
   27. pkb33 Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:34 AM (#3033600)
If I were betting I'd say that Boras suggested the Sox had to match some ginormous offer (quite possibly with terms like an early opt-out, a full no-trade, etc) and the Sox both aren't interested and don't think it's real (or, it's from a team who they don't believe he'll sign with).

I can also believe the Sox are tired of screwing around with Boras. For all the goodwill that has been between them by many reports, this is the first big post-Manny operation shutdown negotiation and it's quite easy for me to believe that their tolerance for Boras games is very low.

Saying this publically certainly hurts Teix and Boras, seems to me. Not a huge deal but it creates real doubt about any bluff he makes to ANA about the Sox offer. So, why would Henry do that? That's the interesting question to me
   28. Best Regards, Larry M. Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:35 AM (#3033601)
Either Teixeira has gone with the Nats offer
If he was going to go for the Nats' offer, I think he would have gone for it already. I think he's using it for leverage, and I think the Nats should give him a deadline.
   29. Gamingboy Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:35 AM (#3033602)
Boras moves in mysterious ways, 27.
   30. Lassus Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:36 AM (#3033604)
Yeah, the statement from Henry that was reported on ESPN was that based on other offers he didn't feel the Sox would be a factor. Could be blowing smoke, of course.
   31. Gamingboy Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:37 AM (#3033607)
Henry's reference to the "other offers" leaves open the possibility that he is calling the bluff of agent Scott Boras, who has been known to inflate the value of offers and the number of suitors pursuing his client. Boras represented former Red Sox center fielder Johnny Damon, who signed with the New York Yankees in 2005 after the Boston brass apparently refused to believe that the offer from their archrivals was real.

Teixeira hit .308 with 33 homers and 121 RBIs last season, including .358 with 13 homers and 43 RBIs in 54 games with the Angels.

Henry and general manager Theo Epstein traveled to Texas to meet with Teixeira and Boras, an official with another team said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because his team wasn't involved in the talks but had knowledge of them. Henry said earlier in the evening that the Red Sox were "no closer" to signing Teixeira.

Red Sox president Larry Lucchino declined comment when reached on his cell phone.

The Los Angeles Angels, who obtained Teixeira from the Atlanta Braves in July, said last week they made an eight-year offer. Several media outlets put Boston's offer at eight years and $184 million.

Teixeira also has been pursued by the Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals, and met before the winter meetings with Yankees general manager Brian Cashman. Officials of the Orioles and Angels said Boras had not been in contact with them on Thursday.


The Sporting News reports from the AP
   32. Gamingboy Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:39 AM (#3033610)
The fact that it is mentioned that the Orioles and Angels haven't been in contact leaves open the possibility the Nats WERE in contact.
   33. Repoz Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:41 AM (#3033613)
Tim Brown is reporting that the Angels are on the verge of signing Juan Rivera and are prolly out of the Tex bash.

Stink...
   34. Gamingboy Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:44 AM (#3033615)
So wait, does this mean it's a Beltway "Battle"? Although that report by Brown could have been before the Henry message...

("Battle" because the Orioles wouldn't outbid somebody even if Brooks Robinson in his prime materialized and became a free agent)
   35. Tripon Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:45 AM (#3033618)
There's goes any interest the Angels had in Manny.
   36. Gamingboy Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:51 AM (#3033621)
Well, good night. Probably nothing will be solved by tomorrow. Unless something is.
   37. PASTE is not impressed by Albert Pujols (Zeth) Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:53 AM (#3033623)
Nah, this is Boras. We're probably still weeks away; he'll leech every last possible dollar out of the Yankees first. And if I had to guess I'd say the Red Sox aren't really REALLY out of it; they'll be more than happy to help Scotty drive the Yankees' price up.
   38. Best Regards, Larry M. Posted: December 19, 2008 at 06:18 AM (#3033641)
Nah, this is Boras. We're probably still weeks away; he'll leech every last possible dollar out of the Yankees first. And if I had to guess I'd say the Red Sox aren't really REALLY out of it; they'll be more than happy to help Scotty drive the Yankees' price up.
I think Boston being out of it make the Yankees less likely to bid on Teixeira.
   39. Rough Carrigan Posted: December 19, 2008 at 06:22 AM (#3033645)
I would laugh my ass off if Teixeira got a $200+ million contract from the Nationals and then had to endure most of a decade of horrendous losing.
   40. tfbg9 Posted: December 19, 2008 at 06:35 AM (#3033654)
Again, if the Sox were really out of it, why would they announce that they're out of it?
   41. Rough Carrigan Posted: December 19, 2008 at 06:37 AM (#3033655)
I think they almost have to because of channel 5 in Boston reporting that they flew down and seemed very close to an agreement. If you fly back emptyhanded, everyone can infer that truth anyway. This just explicitly acknowledges it.
   42. Sam M. Posted: December 19, 2008 at 06:40 AM (#3033660)
Someone help me out here. Teixeira is a wonderful player, sure. But since when are first basemen who have put up exactly two seasons of 150 OPS+ -- and each of those barely 150 -- awesome superstars, worth contracts right up there among the most per-year in the game, for a really, really long time? I mean, Jason Giambi had put up three seasons of 153, 187 and 198 when he hit the jackpot with the Yankees. Delgado put up more, and better, great seasons, too. He's been in the top 10 in the AL in OPS+ once (2005), slugging twice (5th and 6th, and not since 2005, both times playing in Texas). Granted, his overall 151 last year would have been second in the AL had he been there all year long, but he played way more games in the NL, and if he'd qualified in the NL his 136 would have been 9th.

I mean, to me, a guy who puts up his offensive numbers needs to be an outfielder to be a superstar. If he's a first baseman, he's a really, really outstanding player, sure, especially if he's a fine defensive player, too, as Teixeira is. But I just don't get the valuation of him as a $20M player. The market is a wonderful thing, and it's telling us what it's telling us, so what the hell do I know?
   43. PASTE is not impressed by Albert Pujols (Zeth) Posted: December 19, 2008 at 06:40 AM (#3033661)
You know... the Yankees are still paying luxury tax, right? So... well, this would apply more to a guy like CC Sabathia, that everyone and his uncle KNOWS the Yankees are going to sign at any price. Wouldn't be a clever ploy for, say, the Royals or Pirates to jump in and offer 7/175 to Sabathia? It's not like he's actually going to sign with one of those teams, but his agent can certainly use the offer to drive up the Yankees' price, which in turn ultimately results in a few more dollars in Glass' or Nutting's pocket.
   44. PASTE is not impressed by Albert Pujols (Zeth) Posted: December 19, 2008 at 06:49 AM (#3033669)
Teixeira doesn't rake like Jason Giambi, but he's relatively young (for a free agent), he's durable, plays every day, he gets on base and hits for power, he's one of the best defensive first basemen in baseball (Giambi, for instance, was one of the worst). He's in much better shape than Giambi was in his big free agent year. Teixeira's probably the best investment to hit free agency since... I don't know, since Alex Rodriguez his first time around?
   45. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris? Posted: December 19, 2008 at 07:03 AM (#3033677)
The Angels could still look at Manny. They've got two corners and a DH spot open- not to mention first base- and only Vlad under contract. However, I would be surprised if they didn't grab a lefty to go with Rivera.

In any case, at 8/184 I'd wish Mr. Teixeira the best and thank him for his time.
   46. Tripon Posted: December 19, 2008 at 07:10 AM (#3033681)
[45] Vlad's a DH masquerading as a RF these days. I guess the Angels can play Juan Rivera in RF if they sign Manny, but the team still has Gary Matthews Jr. Torii Hunter, Vlad, Reggie Wiltis and now Juan Rivera. That's a lot of outfielders for a team. Adding Manny wouldn't make sense unless you can trade away Gary Matthews Jr, and nobody's going to take him off your hands.
   47. Sam M. Posted: December 19, 2008 at 07:12 AM (#3033682)
Teixeira's probably the best investment to hit free agency since... I don't know, since Alex Rodriguez his first time around?

I don't know. Beltran was a year younger, he has infinitely more defensive value as a center fielder, and it sure looks like Teixeira is going to cost a lot more. I think for the price, Beltran was a much better investment.
   48. Dave Cyprian Posted: December 19, 2008 at 07:15 AM (#3033684)
Anyone who thinks Henry is serious when he says, "We won't be a factor" really needs to think logically about the situation. John Henry does not go running to the media for support or affirmation the same way some sports owners do. I'm not saying he doesn't like appreciation, but he has been in many high leverage negotiations before and I've never seen him resort to negotiating in the media before. He genuinely WANTS everyone to be talking about the Red Sox as out of it. Also, look at his language, "We won't be a factor." That's such an absurd overstatement. Even if another team HAD outbid for Mark Teixiera I can't imagine the Sox considering themselves a "nonfactor." They'd at least try to continue to drive up the price.

I love Henry's comment, I am a proud Sox fan more than ever, and I would still bet dollars to donuts that Teix signs with the BoSox this week.

PS I also love Boras's comment, "Teix really wants to play near his home." LMAO. Has there ever been a more pathetic attempt to get the Nationals or Orioles to bid $200 million so that Teix can sign with a big market for $210 million? These negotiations have been a lot more fun than I thought they would when the ALDS ended.
   49. pkb33 Posted: December 19, 2008 at 07:30 AM (#3033695)
Again, if the Sox were really out of it, why would they announce that they're out of it?


The only reason would be to screw Boras and Teix. And doing so is out-of-character for the Sox and high-risk, since they'll run into Boras again (perhaps this very offseason). So really, this one only makes sense if you think there's a big error one or both of Boras/Teix committed...let's say a "Kinzer style" screw-up. Possible, but no real evidence of it.

Otherwise, Henry's statement makes sense to me only as a negotiating ploy.
   50. Francoeur Sans Gages (AlouGoodbye) Posted: December 19, 2008 at 07:39 AM (#3033702)
I would laugh my ass off if Teixeira got a $200+ million contract from the Nationals and then had to endure most of a decade of horrendous losing.
$200m to play baseball all summer long, but you only win 45% of the time. Yeah, a fate worse than death.
   51. The Piehole of David Wells, Depends Salesman Posted: December 19, 2008 at 08:11 AM (#3033712)
But since when are first basemen who have put up exactly two seasons of 150 OPS+ -- and each of those barely 150 -- awesome superstars, worth contracts right up there among the most per-year in the game, for a really, really long time?


you can't be serious. his "exactly two" seasons with 150 ops+ were the last two, i.e. 2007 and 2008, and the first two years of what we generally regard as a player's prime, ages 27 and 28. arod's ops+ in his age 27 and 28 seasons were 147 and 131; giambi was 130 and 153. we can make any player sound like "not a superstar" with this kind of cherry-picking.
   52. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris? Posted: December 19, 2008 at 08:19 AM (#3033715)
Willits is a fifth of/pinch runner and GMJ is injured and not likely to be a full-time guy even if healthy (I hope.) No question that Manny is an awkward fit but considering Vlad has only one year left on his deal, bringing in Manny on a short-term deal would still be a reasonable option.
   53. Sam M. Posted: December 19, 2008 at 08:35 AM (#3033720)
you can't be serious. his "exactly two" seasons with 150 ops+ were the last two, i.e. 2007 and 2008, and the first two years of what we generally regard as a player's prime, ages 27 and 28. arod's ops+ in his age 27 and 28 seasons were 147 and 131; giambi was 130 and 153. we can make any player sound like "not a superstar" with this kind of cherry-picking.

Well, honestly, I was just raising it to ask. But I think a player's age 27/28 seasons are actually quite frequently the peak seasons of his prime -- although certainly that's not always the case. Maybe Teixeira is about to go all nuclear on the league and start pulling off some 170 OPS+ seasons. Certainly possible. But I could just as easily see Teixeira plateauing around the level he's at now, and with the limited defensive value of even a very good first baseman I don't see a $20M player if a 150 OPS+ guy is all he is, even if he's awfully consistent about it. If I'm paying that much for a first baseman, I'd like to have seen at least one of those 170 OPS+ type years that show he's got that kind of year in him . . . that I'm buying that production on more than spec.

And I'm not cherry-picking. I'm saying I just don't see ANY seasons in Mark Teixeira's record that tell me he's a superstar-caliber player (by which I mean worth a $160M-$180M contract, by the way). I picked the two seasons because they have been his best, and even they don't measure up, given the position he plays. If you added in all the rest, they would actually weaken his case, not strengthen it.

Lastly, as far as A-Rod is concerned, his seasons of 147 and 131 were as a shortstop, and then as a third baseman. But more important, he had already shown he was capable of even much better seasons than that -- three years (as a SS) over 160. Now, that's a superstar. That makes it no surprise he's since put up two more seasons over 170. Alex Rodriguez is a far better player, far more valuable, than Mark Teixeira. Which is OK, of course. You can be a great player, which Tex is, without being as good as A-Rod. You just can't, to me, be worth $20M a year or more for eight years (or more). That seems to me to be a hell of an overpay for the value he's shown he brings, at least to date.
   54. Tripon Posted: December 19, 2008 at 08:43 AM (#3033721)
[52] Ideally, you would want Manny, Torii Hunter and Vlad in the same outfield.
   55. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: December 19, 2008 at 09:29 AM (#3033733)
[52] Ideally, you would want Manny, Torii Hunter and Vlad in the same outfield.
Sure, if you like watching balls roll to the wall.

you can't be serious. his "exactly two" seasons with 150 ops+ were the last two, i.e. 2007 and 2008, and the first two years of what we generally regard as a player's prime, ages 27 and 28. arod's ops+ in his age 27 and 28 seasons were 147 and 131; giambi was 130 and 153. we can make any player sound like "not a superstar" with this kind of cherry-picking.
Ages 27 and 28 are a baseball player's prime. Before that, pre-prime. After, post-prime. There's no reason, none, to think that Teixeira's going to surmount this most typical of baseball fates. He's a very good player, and like a lot of very good players he's likely to see his value fade for the next few of his post-prime years, then plummet. There's little chance he'll improve on his age 27 and 28 seasons, and a strong chance he won't be able to hold down a regular job by the end of an eight-year contract.
   56. Curse of the Andino Posted: December 19, 2008 at 10:00 AM (#3033740)

And I'm not cherry-picking. I'm saying I just don't see ANY seasons in Mark Teixeira's record that tell me he's a superstar-caliber player (by which I mean worth a $160M-$180M contract, by the way). I picked the two seasons because they have been his best, and even they don't measure up, given the position he plays. If you added in all the rest, they would actually weaken his case, not strengthen it.


I said something similar two or three threads ago (in a post about him not being worth it for the O's). Glad someone agrees w/ me. If he keeps it up, he's an HOF candidate, but not exactly inner-circle/first-ballot/whatever. A-Rod ya pay that for, Tex.... hmm.

Brandon Snyder in '10, maybe '11!
   57. villageidiom Posted: December 19, 2008 at 02:13 PM (#3033765)
Quoting Henry as saying "We are not going to be a factor" is taking it out of context. The full sentence was, "After hearing about his other offers, however, it seems clear that we are not going to be a factor." They're not saying they're out; they're saying they're out given that he has other (presumably signicantly better) offers. And as we know with Scott Boras, nothing is given.

I seem to recall a late-night meeting in CA between Boras and the Red Sox FO regarding some Japanese pitcher, with the Boston staff walking out of the place saying there's no deal. Yet the next morning Boras and that pitcher were on a plane back to Boston to sign the deal they'd flatly rejected the night before.

In this case, as in that one with Matsuzaka, the Red Sox are saying they're done bargaining. I'm sure they'd still welcome Teixeira to the team if he accepts their bid, but they've made it clear they're not bidding higher. Boras is playing a game, and Boston not only said they're not playing, they've made it harder for Boras to play it with other teams. It's part of negotiating with Boras, and they are almost certainly not out of it.

Of course, if Boras isn't bluffing, Boston loses out on Teixeira. OTOH, if Boras isn't bluffing, someone is overpaying by a ridiculous amount for Teixeira, and "not overpaying by a ton" doesn't really equal "losing out".
   58. jmurph Posted: December 19, 2008 at 03:25 PM (#3033812)
But I just don't get the valuation of him as a $20M player.


Agree. Whoever gets him will be happy to pay this at first, but I'm 100% sure you won't be able to give this contract away in a few years.
   59. Greg Maddux School of Reflexive Profanity Posted: December 19, 2008 at 03:42 PM (#3033827)
You know... the Yankees are still paying luxury tax, right? So... well, this would apply more to a guy like CC Sabathia, that everyone and his uncle KNOWS the Yankees are going to sign at any price. Wouldn't be a clever ploy for, say, the Royals or Pirates to jump in and offer 7/175 to Sabathia? It's not like he's actually going to sign with one of those teams, but his agent can certainly use the offer to drive up the Yankees' price, which in turn ultimately results in a few more dollars in Glass' or Nutting's pocket.

Luxury tax money isn't dispersed among the owners. It would be a clever ploy in the NBA.


his "exactly two" seasons with 150 ops+ were the last two, i.e. 2007 and 2008, and the first two years of what we generally regard as a player's prime, ages 27 and 28.

The aging curve:

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
             _  _
       
-  -        -  -
    /                    
\  _
 
/                             \
                                  \
                                     \ 


PEAK is 26/27. I'd call the flat-ish portion from 24-29 the prime. 27-28 isn't the beginning of the prime, it's the beginning of the end.
   60. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: December 19, 2008 at 03:52 PM (#3033832)
The aging curve:
22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
_ _
- - - -
/ \ _
/ \
\
\


PEAK is 26/27. I'd call the flat-ish portion from 24-29 the prime. 27-28 isn't the beginning of the prime, it's the beginning of the end.


What set of players is this looking at for a curve? Has the curve been adjusted out as players have been achieving more late career success? Or does the average player still follow the curve shown?
   61. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 19, 2008 at 04:00 PM (#3033841)
Teixeira isn't one of the very best players in the game. That's why he's only getting $23M per year. If he were one of the best, he'd be getting more.

Salaries inflate. The fact that the top salaries this offseason are not breaking records, when we have better free agents available than in either '06 or '07, shows that these players aren't the best in the game.
   62. zonk Posted: December 19, 2008 at 04:04 PM (#3033844)
I think GMs overinflate the value of Tex's switch-hitting. I think you can say it makes Teixeira more valuable than your run of the mill 145 OPS+ 1B (I know his career mark is 134, but he's been at 150 or higher the last 2 seasons -- I'd feel comfortable pegging him at 145) - but not to the degree many GMs seem to think.
   63. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: December 19, 2008 at 04:08 PM (#3033847)
Teixeira isn't one of the very best players in the game. That's why he's only getting $23M per year. If he were one of the best, he'd be getting more.

Exactly. If Pujols were on the market he'd be worth $30 million a year. Maybe more. $20+ million isn't an extreme outlier at this point.

w/r/t Teixeira in particular -- isn't he worth 5-6 wins over replacement? If a win is worth $4 million, he's easily worth $20+ million.
   64. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: December 19, 2008 at 04:17 PM (#3033852)
Of course, if Boras isn't bluffing, Boston loses out on Teixeira. OTOH, if Boras isn't bluffing, someone is overpaying by a ridiculous amount for Teixeira, and "not overpaying by a ton" doesn't really equal "losing out".
Well, that's not necessarily true. If Boston is offering, as they apparently are, at least $176* for 8 years, someone could be coming over the top with say, $23.5 per for 8 years. That's another $12 for Tex over the life of the deal which is hardly chump change, but also not "overpaying by a ridiculous amount."

Given how valuable Tex could be to Boston--Darren's estimates put it at around 3 wins, right?--I would say that unless someone is giving him $230/10 or the like, the Sox calling Boras' bluff only to discover it's not a bluff at all is missing out, and big time.


*All $ figures in millions, of course
   65. Gamingboy Posted: December 19, 2008 at 04:17 PM (#3033854)
Here's my summing up of the situation:

If he wants to win, and win soon, he'll go with the Angels or (if they get back in it/haven't even left it) the Red Sox

If he wants to play near home and MAYBE, MAYBE, if EVERYTHING goes right (and several things go wrong for division opponents), win near the end of his contract, he'll play for the Orioles.... or to put it another way: If he wants to play for a team with good hitting and no pitching (AKA The Rangers) again, he'll play for the Orioles and watch helplessly as he loses games 10-8.

If he wants to roll in money, play at home and play for a sucky team (because even if EVERYTHING goes right for the Nats, they still are third place at best) for almost a decade, he'll to the Nationals.
   66. jmurph Posted: December 19, 2008 at 04:22 PM (#3033862)
The fact that the top salaries this offseason are not breaking records, when we have better free agents available than in either '06 or '07, shows that these players aren't the best in the game.


No, the reason salaries this year aren't breaking records is that the A-Rod contract is an extreme outlier, and will be for at least a few more years (whenever Pujols or Sizemore comes up, I would guess).
   67. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: December 19, 2008 at 04:23 PM (#3033865)
If he wants to roll in money, play at home and play for a sucky team (because even if EVERYTHING goes right for the Nats, they still are third place at best) for almost a decade, he'll to the Nationals.
Now, come on. There's no way to know how good the Nationals will be in four years, let alone a decade. This is exactly the kind of stuff people said when Pudge signed with the Tigers after '03, and within 3 seasons he was playing in the World Series.
   68. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: December 19, 2008 at 04:38 PM (#3033885)
Now, come on. There's no way to know how good the Nationals will be in four years, let alone a decade. This is exactly the kind of stuff people said when Pudge signed with the Tigers after '03, and within 3 seasons he was playing in the World Series.


The same can be said for the Rays. Did anybody at all see them winning the AL EAST last season? Did anyone expect them to win the AL EAST in the next decade?
   69. villageidiom Posted: December 19, 2008 at 04:42 PM (#3033891)
If Boston is offering, as they apparently are, at least $176* for 8 years, someone could be coming over the top with say, $23.5 per for 8 years. That's another $12 for Tex over the life of the deal which is hardly chump change, but also not "overpaying by a ridiculous amount."
If it's that little a difference, Boston is still a factor. Henry said they're not, given what he's being told about other offers. That's why I inferred the "ridiculous amount" part. You're right, it's not necessarily true.
   70. Gamingboy Posted: December 19, 2008 at 04:53 PM (#3033899)
I don't know, but for some reason I see the Nationals as being a butt-monkey franchise of Piratesian proportions (please file this quote away for when the Pirates and Nationals meet in the NLCS within 5 years). I mean, I can see the Orioles being pretty good if they ever get a half-way decent pitching staff (which, of course, is unlikely to appear anytime soon), but the Nationals have a crappier farm system than even the Orioles (although they both are improving every year).
   71. Chris Needham Posted: December 19, 2008 at 05:04 PM (#3033910)
My Christmas wish is rapidly becoming that gamingboy's franchise of choice hire Jim Bowden away from the Nats!
   72. Crispix Attacks Posted: December 19, 2008 at 07:47 PM (#3034169)
(prepare for a ridiculous-looking quote, without all the nbsp's)

The aging curve:

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
_ _
- - - -
/ \ _
/ \
\
\


For who?
Typical players are worse at 33 than at 22?
   73. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: December 19, 2008 at 08:08 PM (#3034200)
I seem to recall a late-night meeting in CA between Boras and the Red Sox FO regarding some Japanese pitcher, with the Boston staff walking out of the place saying there's no deal. Yet the next morning Boras and that pitcher were on a plane back to Boston to sign the deal they'd flatly rejected the night before.

Why is it that this keeps getting brought up without mention of the fact that Boston ended up paying Matsuzaka 6/$52M after initially offering 3/$24M? If Boras can accomplish that in a situation where he has essentially zero leverage and a real deadline, shouldn't we think he might be able to milk a little more out of a situation where he has just about all the leverage you could ask for and no time pressure at all?

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Jim Wisinski
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogT.R. Sullivan: Of Frank Robinson, Milt Pappas and Jim Palmer
(8 - 12:40am, May 26)
Last: The Gurus DO NOT BourbonSamurai

NewsblogWilmoth: Nate McLouth Designated For Assignment
(12 - 12:25am, May 26)
Last: Tripon

NewsblogBoston.com: Curt Schilling’s 38 Studios lays off all staff
(118 - 12:15am, May 26)
Last: Paul D(uda)

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1973 Discussion
(15 - 12:13am, May 26)
Last: DanG

NewsblogBud Selig -- No need for more MLB replay for now - ESPN
(86 - 11:59pm, May 25)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogThe Hall of Very Good: Former Cards Slugger Critical of "LaRussa's Regime"
(4 - 11:26pm, May 25)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogCSN to host ‘Phillies at the Beach’ on Memorial Day
(18 - 11:25pm, May 25)
Last: Fielder's the first baseman, Felder is the fielder

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1972 Ballot
(28 - 11:25pm, May 25)
Last: lieiam

Sox TherapyA Winning Ballclub?
(20 - 11:24pm, May 25)
Last: Dan

NewsblogMatschulat: Did I Miss The "Paul Konerko Is So Overrated OMG" Bandwagon?
(27 - 11:16pm, May 25)
Last: baudib

NewsblogTBO: Nerdy Rays head north
(17 - 10:07pm, May 25)
Last: PreservedFish

NewsblogHimrich’s Top Ten Target Field Foods
(6 - 9:57pm, May 25)
Last: Long John McCaine Mutiny on the Bounty (scott)

NewsblogDodgers want to host NHL's Winter Classic
(22 - 9:38pm, May 25)
Last: Cris E

NewsblogGreenberg: Cubs' Ricketts decries proposal
(817 - 9:08pm, May 25)
Last: The Yankee Clapper

NewsblogHP: Baseball is leaving the human factor behind
(55 - 8:48pm, May 25)
Last: Squash

Buy MLB playoff tickets, plus 2011 World Series, 2011 ALCS tickets and NLCS game tickets. We also have Texas Rangers playoff schedule, tickets to Red Sox games and Yankees game tickets. Plus, buy Phillies baseball tickets, Tigers playoff tickets and the biggies like ALDS baseball tickets and 2011 NLDS tickets.

Demarini, Easton and TPX Baseball Bats

 

 

 

AllianceTickets.com has cheap MLB Tickets. Get all your Colorado Rockies Tickets, Seattle Mariners Tickets, San Francisco Giants Tickets and all your favorite baseball tickets here. We also carry cheap Denver Broncos Tickets, Seattle Seahawks Tickets and Denver Nuggets Tickets.

Page rendered in 0.4652 seconds
54 querie(s) executed