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1. Gamingboy Posted: December 19, 2008 at 04:31 AM (#3033528)Wait, Gammons and Olney have merged into a single being!!??!
Oh my god, SI will have to create a Heyducci to counter this!
Although I have to say the movie thread is pretty cool.
That would be hilarious.
Funny, I thought Boras was Speed Dial Number 666 on every GM's phone.
Link
"it seems clear that we are not going to be a factor."
good god, when will reporters learn? NEVER believe Boras when he says he close to a deal; the man is always playing the angles. As far as I'm concerned, don't trust anything coming out of his mouth until it's "I just deposited my commission check this morning."
(spit-take!)
WHAT!?!?! Maybe Teix really, really, really, does want to play in Baltimore or Washington. Or maybe Arte or the Steinie have really opened the wallet. Or maybe this is a fake ploy done by Boras to confuse us all!
This is effing gold, great post.
Maybe the Red Sox saw an offer sheet from another team, though... ;)
It could be that Boras is bluffing, or it could really be that the Nats are blowing them out of the water.
bosox outbid
per espn
BY WHO!?!?! Was it the Angels? The Nats? The O's? The Empire?
WHO DAMN IT!?!?!
I really, really wish I thought it was because the Yankees swooped in with the highest offer. He really is perfect for this team.
I dunno, that Furcal thread looks like a Thousander.
Either Teixeira has gone with the Nats offer
OR
The Angels or Orioles have made their offer larger.
So, yeah, barring a Yankees entrance, it's Nats or Angels, it seems.
im guessing on multiple teams though, it could be one team with just a huge offer. edited to add this
Agreed, I don't really believe MacPhail's "flexible" comment either. The Orioles having made a huge offer is the least likely of the possibilities I said.
I can also believe the Sox are tired of screwing around with Boras. For all the goodwill that has been between them by many reports, this is the first big post-Manny operation shutdown negotiation and it's quite easy for me to believe that their tolerance for Boras games is very low.
Saying this publically certainly hurts Teix and Boras, seems to me. Not a huge deal but it creates real doubt about any bluff he makes to ANA about the Sox offer. So, why would Henry do that? That's the interesting question to me
The Sporting News reports from the AP
Stink...
("Battle" because the Orioles wouldn't outbid somebody even if Brooks Robinson in his prime materialized and became a free agent)
I mean, to me, a guy who puts up his offensive numbers needs to be an outfielder to be a superstar. If he's a first baseman, he's a really, really outstanding player, sure, especially if he's a fine defensive player, too, as Teixeira is. But I just don't get the valuation of him as a $20M player. The market is a wonderful thing, and it's telling us what it's telling us, so what the hell do I know?
In any case, at 8/184 I'd wish Mr. Teixeira the best and thank him for his time.
I don't know. Beltran was a year younger, he has infinitely more defensive value as a center fielder, and it sure looks like Teixeira is going to cost a lot more. I think for the price, Beltran was a much better investment.
I love Henry's comment, I am a proud Sox fan more than ever, and I would still bet dollars to donuts that Teix signs with the BoSox this week.
PS I also love Boras's comment, "Teix really wants to play near his home." LMAO. Has there ever been a more pathetic attempt to get the Nationals or Orioles to bid $200 million so that Teix can sign with a big market for $210 million? These negotiations have been a lot more fun than I thought they would when the ALDS ended.
The only reason would be to screw Boras and Teix. And doing so is out-of-character for the Sox and high-risk, since they'll run into Boras again (perhaps this very offseason). So really, this one only makes sense if you think there's a big error one or both of Boras/Teix committed...let's say a "Kinzer style" screw-up. Possible, but no real evidence of it.
Otherwise, Henry's statement makes sense to me only as a negotiating ploy.
you can't be serious. his "exactly two" seasons with 150 ops+ were the last two, i.e. 2007 and 2008, and the first two years of what we generally regard as a player's prime, ages 27 and 28. arod's ops+ in his age 27 and 28 seasons were 147 and 131; giambi was 130 and 153. we can make any player sound like "not a superstar" with this kind of cherry-picking.
Well, honestly, I was just raising it to ask. But I think a player's age 27/28 seasons are actually quite frequently the peak seasons of his prime -- although certainly that's not always the case. Maybe Teixeira is about to go all nuclear on the league and start pulling off some 170 OPS+ seasons. Certainly possible. But I could just as easily see Teixeira plateauing around the level he's at now, and with the limited defensive value of even a very good first baseman I don't see a $20M player if a 150 OPS+ guy is all he is, even if he's awfully consistent about it. If I'm paying that much for a first baseman, I'd like to have seen at least one of those 170 OPS+ type years that show he's got that kind of year in him . . . that I'm buying that production on more than spec.
And I'm not cherry-picking. I'm saying I just don't see ANY seasons in Mark Teixeira's record that tell me he's a superstar-caliber player (by which I mean worth a $160M-$180M contract, by the way). I picked the two seasons because they have been his best, and even they don't measure up, given the position he plays. If you added in all the rest, they would actually weaken his case, not strengthen it.
Lastly, as far as A-Rod is concerned, his seasons of 147 and 131 were as a shortstop, and then as a third baseman. But more important, he had already shown he was capable of even much better seasons than that -- three years (as a SS) over 160. Now, that's a superstar. That makes it no surprise he's since put up two more seasons over 170. Alex Rodriguez is a far better player, far more valuable, than Mark Teixeira. Which is OK, of course. You can be a great player, which Tex is, without being as good as A-Rod. You just can't, to me, be worth $20M a year or more for eight years (or more). That seems to me to be a hell of an overpay for the value he's shown he brings, at least to date.
Ages 27 and 28 are a baseball player's prime. Before that, pre-prime. After, post-prime. There's no reason, none, to think that Teixeira's going to surmount this most typical of baseball fates. He's a very good player, and like a lot of very good players he's likely to see his value fade for the next few of his post-prime years, then plummet. There's little chance he'll improve on his age 27 and 28 seasons, and a strong chance he won't be able to hold down a regular job by the end of an eight-year contract.
I said something similar two or three threads ago (in a post about him not being worth it for the O's). Glad someone agrees w/ me. If he keeps it up, he's an HOF candidate, but not exactly inner-circle/first-ballot/whatever. A-Rod ya pay that for, Tex.... hmm.
Brandon Snyder in '10, maybe '11!
I seem to recall a late-night meeting in CA between Boras and the Red Sox FO regarding some Japanese pitcher, with the Boston staff walking out of the place saying there's no deal. Yet the next morning Boras and that pitcher were on a plane back to Boston to sign the deal they'd flatly rejected the night before.
In this case, as in that one with Matsuzaka, the Red Sox are saying they're done bargaining. I'm sure they'd still welcome Teixeira to the team if he accepts their bid, but they've made it clear they're not bidding higher. Boras is playing a game, and Boston not only said they're not playing, they've made it harder for Boras to play it with other teams. It's part of negotiating with Boras, and they are almost certainly not out of it.
Of course, if Boras isn't bluffing, Boston loses out on Teixeira. OTOH, if Boras isn't bluffing, someone is overpaying by a ridiculous amount for Teixeira, and "not overpaying by a ton" doesn't really equal "losing out".
Agree. Whoever gets him will be happy to pay this at first, but I'm 100% sure you won't be able to give this contract away in a few years.
Luxury tax money isn't dispersed among the owners. It would be a clever ploy in the NBA.
his "exactly two" seasons with 150 ops+ were the last two, i.e. 2007 and 2008, and the first two years of what we generally regard as a player's prime, ages 27 and 28.
The aging curve:
22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34_ _
- - - -
/ \ _
/ \
\
\
PEAK is 26/27. I'd call the flat-ish portion from 24-29 the prime. 27-28 isn't the beginning of the prime, it's the beginning of the end.
What set of players is this looking at for a curve? Has the curve been adjusted out as players have been achieving more late career success? Or does the average player still follow the curve shown?
Salaries inflate. The fact that the top salaries this offseason are not breaking records, when we have better free agents available than in either '06 or '07, shows that these players aren't the best in the game.
Exactly. If Pujols were on the market he'd be worth $30 million a year. Maybe more. $20+ million isn't an extreme outlier at this point.
w/r/t Teixeira in particular -- isn't he worth 5-6 wins over replacement? If a win is worth $4 million, he's easily worth $20+ million.
Given how valuable Tex could be to Boston--Darren's estimates put it at around 3 wins, right?--I would say that unless someone is giving him $230/10 or the like, the Sox calling Boras' bluff only to discover it's not a bluff at all is missing out, and big time.
*All $ figures in millions, of course
If he wants to win, and win soon, he'll go with the Angels or (if they get back in it/haven't even left it) the Red Sox
If he wants to play near home and MAYBE, MAYBE, if EVERYTHING goes right (and several things go wrong for division opponents), win near the end of his contract, he'll play for the Orioles.... or to put it another way: If he wants to play for a team with good hitting and no pitching (AKA The Rangers) again, he'll play for the Orioles and watch helplessly as he loses games 10-8.
If he wants to roll in money, play at home and play for a sucky team (because even if EVERYTHING goes right for the Nats, they still are third place at best) for almost a decade, he'll to the Nationals.
No, the reason salaries this year aren't breaking records is that the A-Rod contract is an extreme outlier, and will be for at least a few more years (whenever Pujols or Sizemore comes up, I would guess).
The same can be said for the Rays. Did anybody at all see them winning the AL EAST last season? Did anyone expect them to win the AL EAST in the next decade?
The aging curve:
22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
_ _
- - - -
/ \ _
/ \
\
\
For who?
Typical players are worse at 33 than at 22?
Why is it that this keeps getting brought up without mention of the fact that Boston ended up paying Matsuzaka 6/$52M after initially offering 3/$24M? If Boras can accomplish that in a situation where he has essentially zero leverage and a real deadline, shouldn't we think he might be able to milk a little more out of a situation where he has just about all the leverage you could ask for and no time pressure at all?
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