if the twins are pulling out because it is what the fans want, it is hard not to like it as a fan, but it has scary possibilities in the long term

And as a Yankee fan, I'd be severely p.o.'d if they caved and gave up Kennedy as the third player. Let the Twins keep Santana, or maybe trade him back to Caracas where he can pitch for Team Chavez---and now there's an owner who can afford to pay him more than Steinbrenner!

Offering to include Hughes in the deal was concession enough. With Pettitte back in the rotation the Yankees would be best served to pull out of discussions entirely and prepare to start 2008 with Wang, Mussina, Pettitte, Hughes, Chamberlain, and Kennedy.

Offering to include Hughes in the deal was concession enough. With Pettitte back in the rotation the Yankees would be best served to pull out of discussions entirely and prepare to start 2008 with Wang, Mussina, Pettitte, Hughes, Chamberlain, and Kennedy.

That's fine with me, only drop Mussina about four down on that list. He'll make a decent emergency starter / long relief or setup man until a better one comes along.

The Yankees have held firm since Friday that if pitcher Phil Hughes and outfielder Melky Cabrera were part of their offer, the third player heading for Minnesota would have to be a second-tier prospect.

How about Ian Kennedy?

That's fine with me, only drop Mussina about four down on that list. He'll make a decent emergency starter / long relief or setup man until a better one comes along.

Oh, that wasn't meant to be in any particular order. With the innings restrictions on Hughes, Chamberlain, and Kennedy this year I expect Mussina to start in the rotation and get pulled for a bit of rest sporadically. His vacation from the rotation last year seemed to revive his flagging fastball, the Yankees will essentially have four innings-limited starters filling three spots in the rotation.

Mussina, I suspect, will be fine. He'll make that contract look pretty smart.

Gee, I wonder if the Yankees will really pull out? My guess on how this shakes out: the Yankees announce they're pulling out. The Red Sox don't up their offer, so the Twins decide to hold Santana for a while. It gets to Spring Training and the season tickets are all sold, so the Twins decide they'll deal Santana after all. But everyone's already spent their whole budget (and prospects), except the Yanks, who offer Kennedy and Melky and then sign Santana for 5/95. And thus, again, the NYY will be rewarded for their foolishness.

How about Ian Kennedy

Yeah, that 1.87 minor league ERA really screams second-tier.

And thus, again, the NYY will be rewarded for their foolishness.

If that is what really happens, I doubt they can be called foolish.

I like Johan Santana, but I don't see the need to give up Hughes and Kennedy and Melky.

or maybe trade him back to Caracas where he can pitch for Team Chavez

That won't happen. Johan already expressed his desire to play for a winner.

:-D

How about Ian Kennedy?

He's 22. He was a first round draft pick all the way back in 2006. He had a 1.87 ERA in the minors and a 1.89 ERA in the majors for a team in a pennant race.

I wouldn't project him to be an ace, but he looks like he'll more likely than not have a decent major league career -- and he could end up being really good.

He's not Hughes or Chamberlain, but if you think he's a second-tier prospect, you expect too much from top pitching prospects.

I like Johan Santana, but I don't see the need to give up Hughes and Kennedy and Melky.

The Yankees probably figure that if Hughes, Cabrera and second-tier player isn't good enough, then Boston isn't likely to make an offer that's good enough. If that's the case, they can live with him being traded elsewhere, and hope that he becomes a free agent.

The Yankees remained Santana's most likely destination into the evening, because they have just enough disposable prospects to get him and all of the disposable income to carry the resulting contract extension.

Said one general manager: "I don't think Boston's really for real in that."

Indeed, by late Monday night, a Red Sox official believed the Yankees and Twins were "very close" to completing the trade.

LINK

If that is what really happens, I doubt they can be called foolish.

I like Johan Santana, but I don't see the need to give up Hughes and Kennedy and Melky.

I know, I know, just having some fun. I wouldn't give up those 3 either, I don't think. Hughes is a great prospect, obviously, and I still like the way Melky controls the zone at a very young age (even if his defense is a big concern). I don't have nearly as strong of a handle on Kennedy (although I do hear he's better than Daniel Bard--what a standard!). What would you say, a B+ prospect or so?

And what's in the water that makes these Yankees pitching prospects shoot up through 3-4 levels of minors in a year?

I wouldn't project him to be an ace, but he looks like he'll more likely than not have a decent major league career -- and he could end up being really good.

He's not Hughes or Chamberlain, but if you think he's a second-tier prospect, you expect too much from top pitching prospects.

But Larry, if Chamberlain and Hughes are top-tier, and Kennedy is below them, then...

Seriously, I think Kennedy suffers from the opposite of the overhyped Yankee prospects. He's doomed to seem unexciting because of how ludicrously talented Hughes and Chamberlain are.

I see him as a 3-4 starter- does that sound right to you? A good 3-4, but not an ace. Upside of a 2.

And what's in the water that makes these Yankees pitching prospects shoot up through 3-4 levels of minors in a year?

Well, the Mitchell Report is due out soon...

Seriously, whatever it is, it ain't the whole city's water supply.

I would be very happy if the Twins hold on to Santana. The Yankees can keep Hughes and spend their money on either him or Sabathia in the offseason.

The Yankees probably figure that if Hughes, Cabrera and second-tier player isn't good enough, then Boston isn't likely to make an offer that's good enough. If that's the case, they can live with him being traded elsewhere, and hope that he becomes a free agent.

Exactly. Boston doesn't even sound like they're up for matching the Hughes/Melky portion.

Would the Yankees consider dropping Melky and including Kennedy instead? So it would be Hughes/Kennedy, but no one else beyond that. I wonder if the Twins would do that.

C'mon, Howard, if being below Hughes and Joba makes one a second-tier prospect, there ain't many firsttier prospects out there. I don't have the link but I caught one piece in which a FO type said he thought the consensus was that Hughes is a 1-2 starter and Kennedy a 4th starter.

Did I miss this trade of Clippard to the Nats being posted here somewhere?

Hughes is a great prospect, obviously, and I still like the way Melky controls the zone at a very young age (even if his defense is a big concern).

What do you think of it?

I thought he was averageish on range, with some really nice plays cancelled out by some horrible routes and being too tentative in right CF.

ZR had him a bit above average, which seems close but probably a bit too high. I don't buy Dewan's +/- number on him, but could be swayed if his UZR was also bad.

Darren: I certainly hope not. Why give up two young pitchers? There may be no such thing, etc., but there's also no sure thing that Santana doesn't go TJ or worse.

Seriously, whatever it is, it ain't the whole city's water supply.

I think the Mets only let the OFs drink it.

ZR had him a bit above average, which seems close but probably a bit too high. I don't buy Dewan's +/- number on him, but could be swayed if his UZR was also bad.

I read somewhere here that both fielding bible and UZR had him as awful. He has a good arm, no doubt.

Would the Yankees consider dropping Melky and including Kennedy instead? So it would be Hughes/Kennedy, but no one else beyond that. I wonder if the Twins would do that.

I don't see the Yankees doing that.

Cabrera seems to be the player in the deal that the Yankees can afford to part with, who would fit a role on the Twins, and with just a little added power could be a pretty good player for a long time.

The Yankees have no qualms about putting Damon back in center (and it would clear up the DH problem and allow Giambi to DH every day), but they really don't want to give up on their pitching prospects just as they're about to see what they've really got on their hands.

The Yankees know they can find a centerfielder, but they will have to pay $10 million a year for multiple years to get a useful starting pitcher. They'd rather give Kennedy a crack.

(even if his defense is a big concern). I don't have nearly as strong of a handle on Kennedy (although I do hear he's better than Daniel Bard--what a standard!). What would you say, a B+ prospect or so?

You know what… this has to stop. On all sides. Baseball reference is such a great site… it shouldn’t be used for immature pissing matches from Yanks/Sox fans. Last year I wanted to check Rasner’s numbers and I had to read about “another season of Yankee futility” or something of that nature. The sponsorship on the Beckett page is embarrassing to me, as a Yankee fan. Enough, already, its positively bad karma… leave Baseball reference alone! Leave it alone!

By the way, if the old Kevin Mitchell page sponsorship is still up… wow. Priceless. Check it out if you haven’t.

And calling Ian Kennedy a second tier prospect because he doesn’t throw 95 is just ridiculous. Performance counts, and he’ll rack up many strikeouts with that change. I doubt any starter in the Minor Leagues threw as good a change as Kennedy last season. It’s extremely deceptive, and, as an added bonus, features some especially nice downward movement. Many pitchers of Kennedy’s ilk, the right-hander with a middling fastball, have trouble against left-handed hitters. Kennedy won’t. That change is an equalizer.

If he develops a tighter breaking ball, he could be a number 1. I #### you not. Great location, fantastic feel for his craft, two plus secondary pitches, that’s an ace. There's an IF factor there, but there's also alot to admire about Ian Kennedy.

You know what… this has to stop. On all sides. Baseball reference is such a great site… it shouldn’t be used for immature pissing matches from Yanks/Sox fans. Last year I wanted to check Rasner’s numbers and I had to read about “another season of Yankee futility” or something of that nature. The sponsorship on the Beckett page is embarrassing to me, as a Yankee fan. Enough, already, its positively bad karma… leave Baseball reference alone! Leave it alone!

The Beckett sponsorship (same genius) used to say "5.01 ERA: Ace!" That changed to the blister thing after Beckett missed a couple starts. My favorite is "Congratulations, Boston. You couldn't win a title, so you bought one - just like the Yanks. Open the wallet for Curt, Keith, and Johnny - end 86 years of frustration. 175M reasons never to whine about NYY." Can you guess which page that appears on? Of course, it's Mr. Megabucks, Manny Delcarmen! I agree that this kind of taunting is ridiculously lame. I'm surprised Sean's not a little stricter.

And for the record, I wasn't calling Kennedy 2nd tier. B+ is a pretty high grade him my book.

I would like it to be known for future reference I think that Kennedy has a better career than Hughes. Hell, I think he'll have a better 2008. There, it's in writing. Sort of. Who'll give me odds?

Offering to include Hughes in the deal was concession enough.

Therein lies the fundamental disconnect. Offering Hughes wasn't a concession - it was a prerequisite just to get a seat at the table. Kennedy/Cabrera simply wasn't a serious offer. When the Yankees put Hughes in the deal, the Twins thought that now the teams could start talking while the Yankees thought that they could stop.

And for the record, I wasn't calling Kennedy 2nd tier. B+ is a pretty high grade him my book.

And for the record, not only don't I think Ian Kennedy is a second-tier prospect (a couple of notches below Chamberlain and Hughes, so technically he is, but I was being facetious), but I'm not even a Red Sox fan!

Darren, this started with SouthSideRyan calling Kennedy second-tier.

I would like it to be known for future reference I think that Kennedy has a better career than Hughes. Hell, I think he'll have a better 2008. There, it's in writing. Sort of. Who'll give me odds?

What are we betting? I like a healthy Hughes as much as nearly any prospect in baseball going forward.

...

Yeah, I wasn’t saying that second tier thing to anyone here, just kind of in general… maybe I was saying it to that BS character, who is trying to go all Herschel Walker trade at the moment. I can see a third team jumping in [the Dodgers] under the pretense that “Holy #### Johan Santana is OUT THERE, what are we waiting for, move, move, move!” This might have allowed the Mets in the mix as well, which makes the impatient dealing of Lastings all the more curious. If the Twins do deal Nathan, you have to think Joe Smith’s value shoots up for Minnesota. The downside, if you’re a Met fan, is that the farm system would drop to obscenely bad levels. Or that Jose Reyes/Joe Smith will be seen as perfectly fine by Chris " Mad Dog" Russo because the Mets really pulled one over on the Yankees and David Eckstein is a winner anyway. The upside is Santana, of course.

Well, Howard, what kind of odds will you give me on a better 2008? If I'm right, I get a press pass to the opening of Citifield, and if you win, um, upper-deck seats in KC?

That seems like fair odds. :-)

I think pulling out of trade talks is the best move for the Yankees. I think the Twins are less likely to find a deal to their liking now, and might hold onto him.

And I think they should hold onto him, and not deal him at the deadline unless they're out of it. They could be very good this season with Johan.

This might have allowed the Mets in the mix as well, which makes the impatient dealing of Lastings all the more curious.

I am so curious to see if the Mets end up dealing Church because he had more trade value than Milledge. This Milledge had no trade value issue is amazing to me.

Next season, 120 OPS+, good defense in CF. Will he still have no trade value?

Well, Howard, what kind of odds will you give me on a better 2008? If I'm right, I get a press pass to the opening of Citifield, and if you win, um, upper-deck seats in KC?

That seems like fair odds. :-)

Hmm... I've always wanted to go to KC for a game. Doesn't seem fair somehow.

I love all these Yankee threats ..

Hank is my new favorite Yankee.
I bet he gets fined by the MLB multiple times over the next five years ..
And they won't let Cuban in ...




Go Hank!!

Farnsworth has GM's support

Who cares!!

WWHD!

FWIW:

"NASHVILLE -- The Red Sox have traded medical information with the Minnesota Twins on Jon Lester, which means that talks between the two teams have progressed.

"While it looked like things between the Yankees and Twins might be breaking down tonight, that might have left the door open for the Red Sox to slip in and grab Johan Santana."

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2007/12/talks_turn_seri.html

That might mean they've agreed to put Ellsbury and Lester in the same deal. I've got my fingers crossed. . .

or maybe they went: Lester, Crisp, Lowrie, Kalish and O. Tejada (or something like that).

Johan Santana-S- Twins Dec. 4 - 2:48 am et


FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal adds weight to the Boston Globe reports, writing that the Red Sox have "roared" back into the race for Johan Santana.
"They are in it now," a major league source told Rosenthal. ESPN.com's Buster Olney also believes the Red Sox are in the lead now, though he has no new information.

Yahoo Sports! Tim Brown believes the Red Sox could acquire Johan Santana from the Twins for Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Justin Masterson and another minor leaguer.
With Jed Lowrie as the other minor leaguer, that'd be Boston's reported initial trade proposal. We're guessing Jacoby Ellsbury is in the deal as presently constructed and Coco Crisp is out Otherwise, the Twins really, really like Lester. Definitely more than they do Phil Hughes.

And they won't let Cuban in ...

Because he might actually have some good ideas and want to change stuff.

And for the record, I wasn't calling Kennedy 2nd tier.

I am. Ian Kennedy is your typical 180IP 100 *ERA+ White Right Handed Starter. Not saying that's a bad thing, but that's nto first tier.

44. I just wrote what I thought about this trade in my blog on MLB.COM. I am at peace with the situation now. Very confounded, but at peace.

Maybe I can believe that Lester, Lowrie, and Masterson together are as good as Hughes, but if I was a Twins fan I'd be kind of mad, I think.

Maybe I can believe that Lester, Lowrie, and Masterson together are as good as Hughes, but if I was a Twins fan I'd be kind of mad, I think.

If I were a Twins fan, I'd be organizing a witch-hunt for my GM. As a Yankee fan, I'm prepared to delegate these hunts from New York, via conference call.

These recent reports may be an attempt by the Twins to get Kennedy. Even if they're really ready to accept that offer from Boston, at this point I'd just let it go.

Take a chance on the upside. If Hughes and Chamberlain develop this year as quickly as Cano and Wang did in 2006, the Yanks have a great rotation to go along with the best offense in baseball -- and they don't need to add $20+ million in payroll.

It's time for the organization to get in line with what Cashman's been trying to push the last few seasons -- make moves for the next five years, not just this one.

If the Twins scouting people really really want Jon lester, then i will amke the conclusion that the Red Sox will miss Jon Lester in the future.

Those people are really good at picking talent from other teams.

To me, there's no BoSox package that doesn't include Buchholz that can match Hughes+Cabrera.

My guess is Hank pulls the trigger tomorrow on Hughes+Kennedy

If the Twins scouting people really really want Jon lester, then i will amke the conclusion that the Red Sox will miss Jon Lester in the future.

Those people are really good at picking talent from other teams.

Apparently they're not, since they're insisting on getting that second-tier prospect from the Yankees, and refusing to accept any other second-tier prospects in his stead. Even if it means not getting Phil Hughes in a trade.

My guess is Hank pulls the trigger tomorrow on Hughes+Joba.

Or, you know, Hughes/Cabrera/Kennedy, since that's what the Twins want.

I can't believe that the Yankees will let Santana go to the Red Sox because they don't want to add Kennedy. I can understand not wanting to add Hughes because he has that upside but once you've done that, you don't let Ian Kennedy stop the deal from happening.

I can't believe that the Yankees will let Santana go to the Red Sox because they don't want to add Kennedy. I can understand not wanting to add Hughes because he has that upside but once you've done that, you don't let Ian Kennedy stop the deal from happening.

A) Kennedy also has upside
B) Trade Kennedy and you've got nobody behind Mussina

My guess is Hank pulls the trigger tomorrow on Hughes+Kennedy

That would make this Sox fan happy as well

you don't let Ian Kennedy stop the deal from happening.

Why not? He’s a first round pick who was great in the minors and impressive during his call-up. Him PLUS Hughes is ridiculous, especially when the Red Sox are on the verge of completing a deal without Buccholz or Ellsbury. The Yankees are right to walk away. And they will. Hank already called giving up Hughes and Kennedy suicide.

“How can I go any higher?” Steinbrenner said. “What do they want — Hughes, Kennedy and Cabrera? I can’t do that kind of thing. It’s crazy. It’s suicidal. In the past 20 or 30 years, teams have always asked more from the Yankees than they have of anybody else, and that’s going to stop. I’ve made the best offer Minnesota is going to get, and the fact is, it’s an offer we can go away happy and they can go away happy.”

[Times, Kepner]

Santana
Beckett
Matsuzaka
Schilling
Buchholz

You really think the Yankees should let the Red Sox have that good a rotation for the next 5 years because they don't want to part with Ian Kennedy? Seriously? Ian Kennedy's upside is being a good pitcher. Hughes upside is being a great pitcher. I can honestly understand the idea of not wanting to give up Hughes and preventing a trade like that from happening. But once you've decided to part with Hughes, I wouldn't let Kennedy stop the deal.

#58, Schilling would be, I think, 48 if he stayed in the rotation for the next 5 years, so really that's just the 2008 rotation with Schilling moving on after it and one of the other young guys stepping in. But your point is well-taken; I also can't see the Yankees allowing the Red Sox that rotation for 2008 over Ian Kennedy.

Hughes, Kennedy and Cabrera is not a high price for Santana, people.

“How can I go any higher?” Steinbrenner said. “What do they want — Hughes, Kennedy and Cabrera? I can’t do that kind of thing. It’s crazy. It’s suicidal. In the past 20 or 30 years, teams have always asked more from the Yankees than they have of anybody else, and that’s going to stop. I’ve made the best offer Minnesota is going to get, and the fact is, it’s an offer we can go away happy and they can go away happy.”

Hank is really good at pushing these buttons - almost all fans see their team as unjustly oppressed, and Hank continually beats that drum in the press. He's not really that much like his father, he's a lot savvier in his salesmanship, even if he's just as big a jackass.

I see no reason to believe Hank here, just as there was no reason to believe him when he said "good-bye" to ARod. He talks a good game, and it's funny to watch Yankee fans line up to buy it, but it's just talk. The Yankees aren't actually pulling out. The fact that it's their owner - who isn't even in Nashville - saying it should be reason enough to discount it.

This report is probably a Twins leak to get the Yankees back involved, and Hank is posturing for his side. The Yankee offer always made more sense. Cashman comes back with a choice of Jackson or Tabata, and the Yankees are suddenly the frontrunners again.

"I’ve made the best offer Minnesota is going to get, and the fact is, it’s an offer we can go away happy and they can go away happy.”

Isn't that something of a slap in Cashman's face? Edit- He does say we later on so maybe it's nothing. Too early for me.

I've got to agree with the Ian Kennedy: B+ prospect assessment.

2007 A+/AA ip: 111.2, K: 129, BB: 39
2007 AAA ip: 34.2, K: 34, BB: 11
2007 MLB ip: 19, K: 15, BB: 9....GB%: 26.4%

The sample size is small, but that gb% makes his extremely low home run rate at all levels look flukey. Anybody know where to get his minor league groundball rate?

OTOH, I still like the Yankee offer with Hughes better than any Boston offer without Buccholz.

Any deal that would leave Mussina as one of your top five starters would be borderline insane. No way in the world should both Hughes and Kennedy be part of any package.

From the New York Times just over an hour ago: I hadn't seen this, and it's at least a temporary relief:

The Yankees’ pursuit of Johan Santana showed a flicker of life early Tuesday morning when the Minnesota Twins backed off their demand that the right-hander Ian Kennedy be added to the Yankees’ trade offer.

But with the Yankees’ midnight deadline for a deal come and gone, the teams had still not reached an agreement on the third player to be added to the package of Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera. If the sides cannot agree by Tuesday morning, the Yankees say they will back out of trade talks.

The sample size is small, but that gb% makes his extremely low home run rate at all levels look flukey. Anybody know where to get his minor league groundball rate?

That's because he gets a lot of pop-ups and rarely ever misses his spots. This probably reads like a Chuck Norris fact, but I'm not joking. Being a fly ball pitcher likely means he gives up home runs more than the next guy, but you also have to take some subjective analysis into account, I think. For example, recently traded Tyler Clippard is a flyball pitcher that I would not think of making the same claim about.

Is Hughes/Kennedy/Cabrera too much? Probably. However, Hughes/Cabrera/Jackson isn't really enough. The only way that trade makes sense is if the Twins have decided that they have no intention of resigning Santana. If that's the case, then the Yankees' package is clearly better than free agent compensation.

However, as a Hennepin County taxpayer, even one that roots for the Tigers, I am extremely pissed that Pohlad is getting his new stadium at my expense, taking money from the central MLB pool that my team does a hell of a lot more to generate than his does, and still refusing to pay market rates for players. It's an attitude that should send my fellow Minnesotans to Fleet Farm to stock up on torches and pitchforks.

Lord, I can't stand the Yankees and even I think that hughes, melky, and kennedy is too high. It's not so much that KENNEDY holds back the deal, Russlan, as losing two very good, young pitchers, I guess.

Hughes/Cabrera/Jackson isn't really enough. The only way that trade makes sense is if the Twins have decided that they have no intention of resigning Santana.

The Twins really need to suck it up and either trade Santana for what's on the table for either club or just not trade him. All the rumored packages are better than two draft picks, so they're getting better value than they would if they held on to him. Stupid rich owners unwilling to invest in their team and causing unnecessary offseason drama.

That's because he gets a lot of pop-ups and rarely ever misses his spots.

If he rarely ever missed his spots, he'd have an exceptional walk rate. That isn't the case, and I'm guessing you won't still think this after about 1/2 season in the majors, unless he substantially improves his K/9, BB/9 or GB%...all of which are very possible for such a young pitcher.

Jesus christ... Ive heard enough about Melky Cabrera's defense to make me nauseous. Yanks, sh** or get off the f***ing pot.

If he rarely ever missed his spots, he'd have an exceptional walk rate. That isn't the case, and I'm guessing you won't still think this after about 1/2 season in the majors, unless he substantially improves his K/9, BB/9 or GB%...all of which are very possible for such a young pitcher.

I'm talking about command. Walk rate does not equal command.

If he rarely ever missed his spots, he'd have an exceptional walk rate. That isn't the case, and I'm guessing you won't still think this after about 1/2 season in the majors, unless he substantially improves his K/9, BB/9 or GB%...all of which are very possible for such a young pitcher.

In the minors he had 163 K and 50 BB in 146.3 IP. That's 10 K/9, 3 BB/9, and 3.3 K/BB.

Those ratios are just fine. 10 K/9 is filthy for a guy w/alow 90's fastball. He has real stuff.

With Jed Lowrie as the other minor leaguer, that'd be Boston's reported initial trade proposal. We're guessing Jacoby Ellsbury is in the deal as presently constructed and Coco Crisp is out Otherwise, the Twins really, really like Lester. Definitely more than they do Phil Hughes.

This doesn't make a lot of sense. With Lowrie as the other minor leaguer, the package fills two glaring positional needs for Minnesota. So more likely it just means that they like Lester well enough if they get a CF and a SS.

I'm gonna buck the CW: I think everyone saying that the Twins are just trying to use the Red Sox to get the Yankees to up their offer have it backwards. If you compare Boston's reported package(s) to what the Yankees have actually offered instead of to what the Twins have asked for, they're better trades for Minnesota (especially if Boston covers some of Crisp's contract).

Those ratios are just fine. 10 K/9 is filthy for a guy w/alow 90's fastball. He has real stuff.

Isn't the consensus on Kennedy that his upside is a #3 starter? Isn't that, by definition, a "second tier" starter? I guess it depends on your definition - but as someone already pointed out "If Hughes and Joba are top tier, and Kennedy is a rung below them..."

If (IF!) this goes down the way it looks, I'll be looking forward to reading articles for years about how the Yankees could have had Santana, if they only had been willing to part with the new Jeff Suppan...

unless he substantially improves his K/9, BB/9 or GB%

You do realize that if he "substantially" improved his K/9, he'd be in record-setting territory, right?

If the Twins prefer Lester/Crisp/Lowrie there's not much rationalthe Yanks can do.

They have already beat that offer, and Kennedy is just too much. Hughes is far superior to Lester, Cabrera is better than Crisp. And Lowrie is a MI w/o speed or power.

I guess the Yanks could throw in Betemit if Minn. MUST have a MI.

Isn't that, by definition, a "second tier" starter? I guess it depends on your definition

Sure. But the argument started because someone said that he was a "second tier" prospect. And that depends on how you rate prospects, not how you rate MLB starters. I suppose it also depends on how many tiers you have.

73 - Those numbers are 'fine'. I agree. They aren't unbelievable for minor league stats though. Take a look at Hughes in 2006 for comparison. As he moves up, the K rate will go down (as it did) and the BB rate will go up (as it did). I don't agree with those saying his upside is limited to a #3...his age and K rate give him plenty of upside, but he's no sure thing...especially if he really is an extreme flyball pitcher.

Isn't the consensus on Kennedy that his upside is a #3 starter? Isn't that, by definition, a "second tier" starter?

I think he already is a quality #3/4 starter. I think his upside is a #2/low #1.

His minor and major league numbers are fantastic. He's a 1st round pick that went from A to the majors in 1 year w/o missing a beat.

If he lowers his BB/9 at all, you're looking at 8-9 K/9 and a 3.5 K/BB rate. That is near-ace level stuff.

And Lowrie is a MI w/o speed or power.

He's a MI without home runs; he slugged .503 with an iso of .205 in 2007.

But my point hinges on the Red Sox offer having a fourth player who isn't chopped liver. I'm no minor league guru, but in broad terms isn't Bowden ~ Horne and Masterson ~ Marquez?

8.5k/3.5bb extreme flyball pitcher = Oliver Perez. :)

He's a MI without home runs; he slugged .503 with an iso of .205 in 2007.

My mistake. No HR power.

But my point hinges on the Red Sox offer having a fourth player who isn't chopped liver. I'm no minor league guru, but in broad terms isn't Bowden ~ Horne and Masterson ~ Marquez?

I think the consensus is Horne>Bowden and Masterson>Marquez, at the moment.

Love these Yankees fans who figure anything in pinstripes has future HOF potential while the Red Sox prospects are all mediocre at best! I know that it is difficult to overcome fanboy biases, so it makes sense to rely on "impartial" sources as much as possible in rating prospects. That is especially true for pitching prospects since they are so difficult to analyze statistically.

I agree that Hughes is an excellent prospect, better than Lester. But...
(1) Lester's performance in the second half of 2006 and the first half of 2007 was undeniably hampered by his fight with cancer. Chunking his major league career into five/six start blocks: (06) 3.08 ERA, 3.86, 7.66 (07) 5.67, 3.34. Despite undeniable control issues, his first ten starts were excellent as were his last five starts (six appearances). Yankees fans love to point to his overall averages from the last two years, effectively denying that the cancer is relevant to the discussion. Red Sox fans sometimes go to the opposite extreme, blaming the cancer for everything (including his ongoing control issues). The truth is somewhere in between.

(2) Lowrie isn't exactly chopped liver. Scouts seem to think his defense will be fine at second base, and his bat has potential -- at least if you believe his 2007 lines. I'm not great at estimating MLEs, but I'd expect something along the lines of .270/.350/.430 in the majors. The Twins can use a good-but-not-great 2B right now and the Yankees don't have any of those to offer.

(3) As a Red Sox fanboy, I compared Masterson to Joba at times last year. Oops! :-) That was admittedly going overboard, however Masterson has a legitimately good sinker and projects to a nice career in relief even if his future as a starter depends on improvements in his secondary pitches. Kevin Goldstein puts Masterson on par with Ian Kennedy, presumably balancing "upside" against current performance.

(4) Cabrera is a decent talent, especially if you like his defense in CF, but he isn't THAT much better than Crisp. After two years in the majors I think we know roughly what to expect from Melky. He is a step down from guys like Hughes, Ellsbury, and Lester -- prospects with the talent to make or break a deal.

Hughes > Lester (advantage Hughes for his greater polish)
Cabrera > Crisp (advantage Melky for his upside potential)
Kennedy = Masterson
??? < Lowrie (serviceable MI)

I'd take Hughes/Cabrera/Kennedy over that Red Sox package. But without Kennedy in the deal? Not even close unless you are a Yankees fanboy.

I think he already is a quality #3/4 starter. I think his upside is a #2/low #1.

His minor and major league numbers are fantastic. He's a 1st round pick that went from A to the majors in 1 year w/o missing a beat.

If he lowers his BB/9 at all, you're looking at 8-9 K/9 and a 3.5 K/BB rate. That is near-ace level stuff.

It doesn't much matter what you "think", though. The scouting consensus is that he does not have the raw stuff to be better than a #3 in the Majors. Could the scouts be wrong? Sure, they have been before. But you can't just look at a guy's minor league K and BB rates and start talking about his stuff. That's poor analysis. The book on Kennedy is that his secondary pitchesm especially his changeup, are polished for a pitcher of his age. This allows him to get the swings and misses in the minors and have such a high K rate.

Now, he may already be a #3 or 4 starter in the Majors right now - I'm not arguing that point. But the consensus on Kennedy is that he pretty much is what he is now, and he has little or no projection moving forward. The raw stuff just isn't there.

I mentioned Jeff Suppan earlier - Suppan had great K rates in the minors for the Red Sox, and debuted in the Majors at 20. I think Kennedy will be a little bit better than Suppan was, at least compared with Suppan's early struggles, but he is HIGHLY unlikely to ever be a #1 or 2 starter on a good team.

Now, he may already be a #3 or 4 starter in the Majors right now - I'm not arguing that point. But the consensus on Kennedy is that he pretty much is what he is now, and he has little or no projection moving forward. The raw stuff just isn't there.

If he's a #3-4 now, he can still improve his command/control, get the BB rate down and become a #2.

Scouts are famous for drooling over guys with ++ fastballs who couldn't find the strikezone with GPS, or are straight as a arrow, and underestimating guys with command who change speeds.

I think Kennedy will be a little bit better than Suppan was, at least compared with Suppan's early struggles, but he is HIGHLY unlikely to ever be a #1 or 2 starter on a good team.

You pretty much nailed what I've read about Kennedy, but I'm pretty sure Suppan was a #2 on a World Series winning team.

Also, Kennedy was hurt before the draft and was considered to have higher upside before he got hurt. I haven't seen a scouting report on him that wasn't a year old, but I did see more impressive stuff (IMO) when he was up in the bigs then what was reported. I wonder if he regained some former ability as he moved away from his injury.

Scouts are famous for drooling over guys with ++ fastballs who couldn't find the strikezone with GPS, or are straight as a arrow, and underestimating guys with command who change speeds.

And much of the time they are right. :-)

I don't know how much Kennedy can truly improve his command/control given that he is already superb in that department. He walks guys because he can't pitch in the strike zone, not because he lacks location.

Also, Kennedy was hurt before the draft and was considered to have higher upside before he got hurt. I haven't seen a scouting report on him that wasn't a year old, but I did see more impressive stuff (IMO) when he was up in the bigs then what was reported. I wonder if he regained some former ability as he moved away from his injury.

He did regain a little bit of zip it seemed. In the early '06 draft reports he was supposed to be a Top 10 pick, but then his velocity dipped and Kevin Goldstein (using this example not because I feel like picking on him today but because this is the one that immediately comes to mind) was reporting it as still 86-89 even up until right before his ML debut. It's possible that the guns were juiced for his 3 starts, but what I saw just about every inning was 89-91 with the occasional 92. What I was most impressed by was his ability to maintain this velocity.

http://www.moundtalk.com/prospects/ian-kennedy-scouting-report/

Here's a more recent report on Kennedy. Don't know how good these guys are, but just so you know I didn't cherry pick, it comes up 3rd on a Google search of "scouting report Ian Kennedy"

THE FUTURE
Ian Kennedy came out of college with high expectations. He has, to date, not lived those expecations down. At the moment, Kennedy looks like he could step in and be a back-end Major League pitcher in 2008. But with his age (just 23 on Opening Day 2008) and command, Kennedy should become a #2 pitcher before long.

Kennedy’s career will be marked by his K/BB ratio and will always be heralded as such. He won’t overpower anyone or “wow” fans with his electric stuff but will command his pitches effectively and deceive hitters. He should be in the starting rotation next season, barring major acquisitions.

You pretty much nailed what I've read about Kennedy, but I'm pretty sure Suppan was a #2 on a World Series winning team.

Touche. Then again, you might also say "he was the #2 starter on a team that went 83-78 and didn't feature another starter with an ERA under 5, despite playing in the weakest division in baseball."

Okay, I'll stop.

Jeff Suppan is a bad comp, beause he was drafted out of HS, Kennedy is a college guy.

I for some reason can't think of a College White Right Handed Mediocre Inning Eater off the top of my head.

Kevin Goldstein puts Masterson on par with Ian Kennedy, presumably balancing "upside" against current performance.

Apples/oranges comparisons like this aren't very informative, regardless of who they come from. How do you put a guy who hasn't pitched above AA on a par with a guy who's pitched effectively at AAA and the majors, even in small sample sizes? How do you put 10 K/9 on a par with 7 K/9? The only way to do that is by basically saying that they're not really comparable on a whole bunch of levels, but I'm going to compare them anyway.

(4) Cabrera is a decent talent, especially if you like his defense in CF, but he isn't THAT much better than Crisp.

Which one is going to cost $11M over the next two seasons? That doesn't matter to the Yankees or Red Sox, but I would think that it should matter a lot to the Twins.