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Tuesday, September 20, 2011

ESPN: Szymborski: A staff for the ages (INSIDER)

n December, the Philadelphia Phillies were revealed to be the notorious “mystery team” in the hunt for Cliff Lee, eventually signing the 2008 AL Cy Young winner to a five-year, $120 million contract. With Philly’s rotation already containing Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels, the hype surrounding the team’s quartet of starting pitchers reached epic proportions. The hypemakers were wrong—the Phillies’ starters went on to exceed expectations.

After the inking of Lee, we took a look at the Philly front four using the ZiPS projection system. For the Fab Four, we came up with a projection of 19.8 WAR (wins above replacement), which would have given the Phillies the 13th-best top four starters in a rotation since the start of the divisional era in 1969.

Dan Szymborski Posted: September 20, 2011 at 06:06 PM | 11 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: phillies, zips

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   1. Rants Mulliniks Posted: September 20, 2011 at 06:14 PM (#3930997)
They are sitting at 20.5 right now (BRef); 21.8 if you sub Worley for Oswalt.
   2. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: September 20, 2011 at 07:28 PM (#3931070)
To see what record the Phillies' rotation is about to break, become an ESPN Insider today. 1 Year Membership - $3.33 a month


Well, that was a nice xxxx-tease, although at least we learn that the 1971 Orioles were at the top of the list.

The real question is how many of those other unidentified rotations led their team to championships?
   3. Famous Original Joe C Posted: September 20, 2011 at 07:35 PM (#3931077)

Well, that was a nice xxxx-tease, although at least we learn that the 1971 Orioles were at the top of the list.

The real question is how many of those other unidentified rotations led their team to championships?


Without giving away who they are, the answer is: none of them.
   4. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: September 20, 2011 at 08:37 PM (#3931126)
The real question is how many of those other unidentified rotations led their team to championships?

Without giving away who they are, the answer is: none of them.


Then with no visible evidence to contradict me, I'll still take Reynolds-Raschi-Lopat-Ford of the '50 Yanks, 14.8 WAR be damned, especially since Ford was only there for half a year. You could also add 3 earned runs in 36 innings of World Series pitching---replace that.
   5. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: September 20, 2011 at 10:12 PM (#3931216)
The Phillies staff has an ERA+ of 128. That is the same as the career ERA+ of: Stan Coveleski, Bob Gibson, Sparky Lyle, Jack Pfiester, Curt Schilling, Tom Seaver, and Jered Weaver.
   6. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: September 20, 2011 at 10:28 PM (#3931226)
Despite Steve Avery being on the way down, the '95 Braves front four racked up 19.1 WAR in just 144 games and cashed in the championship. Team ERA+ was 125.
   7. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: September 20, 2011 at 10:44 PM (#3931237)
The top 4 on the 1906 Cubs racked up 19.8 WAR, but it didn't get them anywhere with the Hitless Wonders, who had a few pretty good pitchers of their own.

OTOH their team ERA+ was 151, with a WHIP of 1.055, so that might get them a few Cubbie points.
   8. Don Geovany Soto (chris h.) Posted: September 20, 2011 at 11:02 PM (#3931251)
The Phillies staff has an ERA+ of 128. That is the same as the career ERA+ of: Stan Coveleski, Bob Gibson, Sparky Lyle, Jack Pfiester, Curt Schilling, Tom Seaver, and Jered Weaver.

Not sure what your point is, here; comparing the ERA+ of a single pitcher to an entire staff doesn't seem all that illuminating.
   9. MFS Posted: September 20, 2011 at 11:36 PM (#3931299)

Not sure what your point is, here; comparing the ERA+ of a single pitcher to an entire staff doesn't seem all that illuminating.


The average Phillies starter has been roughly as good as Bob Gibson averaged over his HOF-worthy career. Not too complicated.
   10. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: September 20, 2011 at 11:36 PM (#3931300)
[8] Sure it is. It's as if the Phillies had Curt Schilling on the mound for the whole season.

Edit: Coke to Shock. Also, I used the team ERA+, not just the starting staff.
   11. AndrewJ Posted: September 21, 2011 at 12:41 AM (#3931385)
Worley's been moved to the bullpen for the postseason. Actually a smart move.

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