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Tuesday, June 08, 2010

ESPN:  Szymborski: Projecting Strasburg’s career (INSIDER REQ.)

Strasburg’s arrival is already one of the most-hyped debuts in MLB history, with nearly 24/7 coverage, a future Hall-of-Fame catcher hoping to recover from a back injury quickly enough to catch the game, and even the small town of Strasburg, Va., hoping to hold a celebration in honor of a pitcher who has yet to throw a single pitch in the majors.

Pitching against the Pirates, last in the NL in runs scored, should help Strasburg to have a promising debut, but the question that remains is what can one realistically expect from the pitching phenom in the long-term?

As you guys no doubt know, projecting a pitcher based on college play and a handful of professional starts is an extremely difficult task.  We thought it would be fun, however, in the case of Strasburg since he’s such a Big Deal today.  While it’s obvious that there are going to be pretty large error bars, Strasburg has been just about as dominating in his professional debut as one can be.  I’ve only done two other career projections of a guy without major league performance that were as good - Roy Oswalt and Tim Lincecum.

Dan Szymborski Posted: June 08, 2010 at 04:41 PM | 67 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Moe Greene Posted: June 08, 2010 at 05:19 PM (#3553749)
So you're saying there's a (1/100) * (1/14) chance he'll be thrown out of baseball for throwing the 2023 World Series?

   2. Gamingboy Posted: June 08, 2010 at 07:16 PM (#3553874)
Damn insider wall.
   3. CraigK Posted: June 08, 2010 at 11:42 PM (#3554117)
Can't you at least tell us the career numbers?
   4. LionoftheSenate Posted: June 09, 2010 at 12:58 AM (#3554238)
Strasburg "a more durable Ben McDonald" says ZIPS. 184-143 3.88 ERA.

Count me sick of projection systems. Blah..
   5. RollingWave Posted: June 09, 2010 at 01:03 AM (#3554247)
holy ####, Pirates "passed" the Astros already?
   6. SPICEY WITH A SIDE OF BEER ON A BABYYYYYYY Posted: June 09, 2010 at 01:03 AM (#3554249)
Project that you poser!
   7. Bob Meta-Meusel Posted: June 09, 2010 at 02:34 AM (#3554357)
Strasburg may already be the best pitcher with whom I share a birthday (7/20), though depressingly, my birth was 16 years earlier than his. His competition is pretty much limited to Mike Witt.

Best player (so far) is probably Tony Oliva in a fairly close race over Hall of Famer Heinie Manush (neither made the Hall of Merit).
   8. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 09, 2010 at 02:57 AM (#3554378)
Karl Spooner isn't impressed.
   9. Juan V Posted: June 09, 2010 at 05:17 AM (#3554429)
I have a HOFer-not HOMer, and a HOMer-not HOFer.
   10. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: June 09, 2010 at 06:04 AM (#3554434)
Hippo Vaughn.

Full stop.
   11. Dan The Mediocre is one of "the rest" Posted: June 09, 2010 at 01:36 PM (#3554522)
4 best players

Dennis Martinez
Tony Perez (HoF)
Earle Combs (HoF)
Ed Walsh (HoF, HoM)

Walsh wins.
   12. gay guy in cut-offs riding a stegosaurus (MH#1F) Posted: June 09, 2010 at 01:51 PM (#3554531)
Best pitcher with whom I share a birthday is probably Alex Carrasquel, which gives you some idea of how good a day it is for pitchers.

On the other hand, I do share the day with a pretty good hitter.
   13. flournoy Posted: June 09, 2010 at 01:53 PM (#3554532)
I'm not going to bother, since as I remember, the best player to share my birthday is Terry Puhl. For real.
   14. Rants Mulliniks Posted: June 09, 2010 at 02:32 PM (#3554559)
Flournoy, you and I share a birthday.... and yeah, Terry Puhl is clearly the best MLB player born on July 8.
   15. Spahn Insane Posted: June 09, 2010 at 02:34 PM (#3554561)
Matt Williams is the best player with my birthday; after that it's a steep dropoff (Walt Weiss and Sixto Lezcano).

Got a couple good closers, though, in Nen and Righetti. Astacio and John Burkett for the rotation.
   16. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: June 09, 2010 at 02:38 PM (#3554562)
Strasburg has been just about as dominating in his professional debut as one can be

Karl Spooner laughs at you
EDIT: coke to LASOA
   17. Dan Evensen Posted: June 09, 2010 at 03:08 PM (#3554595)
Since I can't get around the insider wall, I'll play the game with you guys.

June 7th doesn't give me a lot to choose from. Thurman Munson, Don Money, Herb Score, and that's about it. If we had a DMB tournament of birthday teams, I doubt I'd qualify for the first round.
   18. Kurt Posted: June 09, 2010 at 03:18 PM (#3554606)
I'm the opposite of MH#1F - my top pitcher (and only pitcher of note) is Gaylord Perry, but my top position player is Herb Perry, who I barely remember playing but is only a year older than me.
   19. JustDan Posted: June 09, 2010 at 03:26 PM (#3554615)
My top player is Ben Grieve or Ken Oberkfell. My team sucks.
   20. Lassus Posted: June 09, 2010 at 03:28 PM (#3554619)
My top pitcher is Babe Ruth.
   21. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: June 09, 2010 at 03:35 PM (#3554624)
i've got barry larkin and david freese. tom browning is the best pitcher.
   22. slothinator Posted: June 09, 2010 at 09:56 PM (#3554886)
I get a solid offense with Tony Armas, Jose Canseco (and his brother I guess), Sean Casey, and Richard Hidalgo. Best pitcher looks like it would be Joe Magrane.
   23. DL from MN Posted: June 09, 2010 at 10:02 PM (#3554891)
It is fun being born on 2/6. Between myself and my 3 sons we have Ruth, Mays, DiMaggio and Joe Jackson covered. Yes, this is how I remember their birthdays.
   24. Swedish Chef Posted: June 09, 2010 at 10:04 PM (#3554893)
Best hitter: Mark Teixeira
Best pitcher: Bret Saberhagen
Best name: Ossee Schreckengost
   25. Tom T Posted: June 09, 2010 at 10:20 PM (#3554903)
Best hitter: Stan Javier (ouch)
2nd Best hitter: Otis Nixon (double ouch)
3rd Best hitter: Ivan DeJesus, Sr. (triple ouch)

Best pitcher: Ralph Terry (meh)
2nd Best pitcher: T.J. Mathews (meh)
3rd Best pitcher: Jay Powell (meh)

Best politician: Richard M. Nixon (seemed like a good coincidence at the time...)

One day earlier...Jason Giambi, Mike Cameron, Walker Cooper, Carl Pavano, Bruce Sutter
One day later...Stretch, Chick Stahl, Harry Wright, Ervin Santana

   26. Tom T Posted: June 09, 2010 at 10:27 PM (#3554911)
...of course, my wife gets Dave Winfield, Fred Clarke, and Dennis Eckersley.

Twins get Votto, Big Klu, Maris, High Pockets Kelly and the Big Unit.

#3 gets Ralph Kiner (plus Radke, Swift).

Man, this is depressing....

Ah, wait, #4 has luck similar to mine...Shane Reynolds, Kevin Seitzer.

Okay, I feel better now. And closer to #4 than ever before! :)
   27. Francoeur Sans Gages (AlouGoodbye) Posted: June 09, 2010 at 10:37 PM (#3554922)
Best player is probably Willy Randolph. My birthday is a pile of suck. But the Dalai Lama shares my birthday, so I have that going for me. Which is nice.
   28. Benji Gil Gamesh VII - The Opt-Out Awakens Posted: June 09, 2010 at 10:52 PM (#3554934)
I've got a pretty decent rotation: Bob Lemon, Urban Shocker, Larry Dierker and Hooks Dauss.

Unfortunately, the highest ISO on my team looks like it belongs to...Bob Lemon. (Jeff Leonard, Vince Coleman, Wally Backman, Alexei Ramirez, Mike Matheny...)
   29. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: June 09, 2010 at 10:57 PM (#3554937)
Best hitter: Dwight Evans
Best pitcher: Bob Feller
Best name: Homer Summa
Best Canadian relief pitcher destroyed by Joe Torre: Paul Quantrill
   30. spanx for the memories Posted: June 10, 2010 at 12:56 AM (#3555016)
Feb 7th

Best hitter: Carney Lansford
Best Pitcher: Dan Quisenberry
Best pitcher to give up a HR in a World series: Burt Hooten
Best Name: Dummy Lynch.
   31. hokieneer Posted: June 10, 2010 at 01:06 AM (#3555025)
sep 30th.

Best Pitcher and overall Player by far: Robin Roberts
   32. Eric P. Posted: June 10, 2010 at 01:10 AM (#3555027)
July 9

Best Hitter: Willie Wilson
Best Pitcher: Jack Powell
Best Name: Coot Veal or Red Woodhead
   33. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: June 10, 2010 at 01:30 AM (#3555054)
I've got some good cultural figures who share my birthday, but not much in the way of athletic talent. My best MLB player, and best pitcher, is Bobby Shantz. My best position player is probably Dave Martinez. As a Mets fan, I like the fact that Rich Gedman shares my birthday. I also have Kevin Kennedy.

There's even less basketball talent born on my birthday--Lucius Allen is the best. In the NFL, I've got HOF tight end Dave Casper along with T.J. Houshmandzadeh. In the NHL, I've got the Sedin twins.

EDIT: I've apparently got Serena Williams too, so that brings up my athlete quotient considerably.
   34. GGC Posted: June 10, 2010 at 02:04 AM (#3555071)
The best player from March 17th is Pete Reiser. At the very least Ritter and Honig thought so. In reality, it's probably Hank Sauer, unless it's Fred Pfeffer.
   35. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: June 10, 2010 at 02:17 AM (#3555079)
I'm in MH#1F territory

Best player - Andre Dawson
Best pitcher - Buddy Groom

Whatever happened to Jesse Foppert?
   36. Hugh Jorgan Posted: June 10, 2010 at 02:23 AM (#3555084)
Dec. 22...Steve Carlton...he's exactly 20 years older than I am...very cool.
   37. Hugh Jorgan Posted: June 10, 2010 at 02:30 AM (#3555089)
Oh, f*ck...and Steve Garvey also on the 22nd...very uncool.
   38. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: June 10, 2010 at 02:54 AM (#3555104)
August 18, Roberto Clemente and Burleigh Grimes
   39. An Accent to end all Shallows Posted: June 10, 2010 at 04:01 AM (#3555140)
The best pitcher that I share a birthday with is Walter Johnson. A certain current MLBer actually shares my birthday down to the year -- oh, I've wasted my life.

The best hitter is probably Adam LaRoche, who's good, but not exactly an all-time great.
   40. Don Malcolm Posted: June 10, 2010 at 04:08 AM (#3555141)
Did anyone out there happen to notice that in Spooner's debut, the Giants pulled most of their regulars after two or three plate appearances? Spooner struck out 5 of the regulars over 21 ABs (24 total PA); he recorded strikeouts in ten out of twelve at-bats given to scrubs.
   41. Alex meets the threshold for granular review Posted: June 10, 2010 at 04:20 AM (#3555148)
I don't share my birthday with any especially notable baseball players, but I do share it with Michael Jordan and Jim Brown. Top that.
   42. Morty Causa Posted: June 10, 2010 at 04:54 AM (#3555157)
Strasburg may already be the best pitcher with whom I share a birthday (7/20), though depressingly, my birth was 16 years earlier than his. His competition is pretty much limited to Mike Witt.

You also share a birthday with the great Thomas Berger.
   43. Jarrod HypnerotomachiaPoliphili (TeddyF.Ballgame) Posted: June 10, 2010 at 05:04 AM (#3555163)
December 5th gets me Ed Porray--not much of a player, but the most interesting birthplace in big league history.
   44. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: June 10, 2010 at 06:34 AM (#3555178)
Luis Aparicio and Noodles Hahn.

I am exactly the same age as Andre Agassi, which sort of made me cranky when all that "Grand Old Man" stuff was going on.
   45. whoisalhedges Posted: June 10, 2010 at 12:53 PM (#3555236)
The March 10 team may be the worst of all.*

I've got a good bullpen, with Steve Howe, Tom Hilgendorf, and Mike Timlin; but my #1 starter is Wayne Twitchell, and my only position players worth a second glance are John Cangelosi and Johnny Briggs. 3rd best position player is Gene DeMontreville.... :/

*For argument's sake, I decided to look at Feb. 29. HAS to be worse, right?

Al Rosen and Pepper Martin, with Steve Mingori anchoring the pen. Screw this. ;)
   46. Juilin Sandar to Conkling Speedwell (Arjun) Posted: June 10, 2010 at 03:43 PM (#3555440)
My birthday is today. Apparently it is also the birthday of Ken Singleton and Pokey Reese. And Freddy Garcia and Elias Sosa.

Not much of a team, sadly.
   47. Scott Lange Posted: June 10, 2010 at 04:05 PM (#3555467)
I'm October 28th. The hitter who made it to the bigs and stuck the longest: Lenny Harris (.667 career OPS). Second-longest, Doc Lavan (.596). Third-longest, Nate McLouth.

Best pitcher is probably Frank Smith, 11 deadball years with a career 101 ERA+. I do have Frank Lange, who is awesome because he was 9-4 with a 145 ERA+ in his rookie year of 1910, and might for all I know be my nth cousin.
   48. Magnum RA Posted: June 10, 2010 at 04:07 PM (#3555473)
Feb 2

Red Schoendienst
Wes Ferrell
Melvin Mora
Don Buford
   49. mex4173 Posted: June 10, 2010 at 04:12 PM (#3555484)
Best Pitcher: Mike Flanagan (23.9 WAR)
2nd Best Pitcher: Tony Kaufmann (6.1 WAR)
3rd Best Pitcher: Joe Berry (5.2 WAR)

Best Position Player: Sammy Strang (18.6 WAR)
2nd Best Position Player: Adolfo Phillips (13.4 WAR)
3rd Best Position Player: Pete Hotaling (3.9 WAR)

I think December 16 can give March 10 a run for its money.
   50. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: June 10, 2010 at 04:21 PM (#3555504)
Hey, STEAGLES, I guess we share the same birthday! I loved Tom Browning growing up because he threw a perfecto and shared my b-day.
   51. SOLockwood Posted: June 10, 2010 at 04:33 PM (#3555519)
Me: Robin Ventura (plus Tim Hudson, and the real Crash Davis)
Wife: Nolan Ryan (plus Ernie Banks and Jackie Robinson)

better not charge the mound.

Daughter: Jeff Conine, Rico Petrocelli, Jim Edmonds
   52. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: June 10, 2010 at 04:40 PM (#3555535)
and might for all I know be my nth cousin

technically, we're ALL nth cousins if you make n big enough

I'd stack my team against anyone as being the worst--I do have 2 very questionable HOFers (Traynor and Maranville), but after that, only Hal Trotsky. But pitching?--the pitcher with the most wins is Ike Delock (who?)
   53. Dingbat_Charlie Posted: June 10, 2010 at 04:48 PM (#3555552)
Bob Horner and Andy Messersmith. And Hiroshima.

edit - actually, I'd probably take Sherry Magee over Horner.
   54. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: June 10, 2010 at 05:20 PM (#3555591)
I seem to recall doing this before, and I think August 23rd would produce the best actual team. There aren't as many superstars as other birthdays (2 HOFers, and I think only 1 of those is a HOMer), but they had really good players at every position. Let's see....

C: John Romano/Sherm Lollar
1b: Julio Franco
2b: Lonny Frey/Mark Bellhorn
3b: George Kell
Ss: George Davis
Of: Casey Blake
Of: Dale Mitchell
Of: Ron Blomberg

Pitching was not as good:

SP: Guy Bush
SP: Mike Boddicker
SP: Nels Potter
SP: Lew Richie
RP: Randy St. Claire
   55. McCoy Posted: June 10, 2010 at 05:36 PM (#3555620)
The best hitter I share a birthday with is Ty Cobb and the best pitcher I share a birthday with is Steve Trachsel. Go figure.
   56. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: June 10, 2010 at 05:39 PM (#3555623)
Dingbat Charlie and my wife share the same birthday.
   57. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 10, 2010 at 05:56 PM (#3555647)
On Feb 20, I've got a pretty nice rotation, Bill Gullickson, Livan Herandez, Justin Verlander, Clyde Wright and Dave Davenport, and Elroy Face in the pen.

My outfield looks good: Sam Rice, Tommy Henrich, Ryan Sweeney and Julio Borbon, I've got Brian McCann behind the plate, but no IFs at all.
   58. tfbg9 Posted: June 10, 2010 at 05:59 PM (#3555653)

Curtis Montauge Schilling, baby. Jimmy Piersall. And Bonny Prince Charles.
   59. OrioleJMC Posted: June 10, 2010 at 06:07 PM (#3555666)
Jan 3rd:
Players with 10 years or more in MLB:
AJ Burnett
Luis Sojo
Luis Rivera
Darren Daulton
Gary Lavelle
Sid Hudson
Frenchy Bordagaray
Gus Suhr
Barney Gilligan

Buzz Arlett for Minor League credit

NBA yields Buck Williams

NFL I've got Jim Everett and Eli Manning

NHL is Bobby Hull and Rick MacLeish
   60. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: June 10, 2010 at 06:29 PM (#3555681)
Like many here, I've got a few greats [2 HOF (one inner-circle), one HOM, + a HOF manager], then a dropoff. Middie infield is terrible, bullpen weak, and I need another outfielder or two (Jose Tabata may eventually help here).

Lineup: LF Lew Ford, C Ray Schalk, 3B Harlond Clift, 1B Don Hurst, CF Ellis Burton, RF/utility P Watty Lee, DH Tony Longmire, MI Kent Anderson, MI Luis Ordaz
Bench: Buncha terrible.
Rotation: Big Six, Bob Buhl, Fred Hutchinson, Matt Clement not of Alexandria, Ken McBride
Bullpen: Gene Stechschulte, Barry Manuel, Reggie Harris, Dean Hartgraves, various other scrubs and 19th/early 20th century guys
Mgr - Fred Hutchinson
   61. Cooper Teenoh Posted: June 10, 2010 at 07:09 PM (#3555728)
I just read the wikipedia entry for Karl Spooner. Wow, that sucks.
   62. kthejoker Posted: June 10, 2010 at 07:11 PM (#3555731)
Sep 1:

P: David West
C: Joe Astroth
1b: Rico Carty
2b: Rob Wilfong
SS: Jim O'Rourke
3B: Kevin Orie
LF: Joe Marty
CF: Garry Maddox
RF: Darby O'Brien

Pretty dismal lineup outside of O'Rourke and Carty, and David West is the best I can do on the mound, but 3 centerfielders in the outfield at least gives us some defensive guff.
   63. Sunday silence Posted: June 10, 2010 at 07:55 PM (#3555774)
I got Caminiti; AL Bumbry, Jesse Orosco and Gary Peters.

Leader: Queen Elizabeth II of England.

Mascot: Tony Danza.
   64. Khrushin it bro Posted: June 10, 2010 at 08:20 PM (#3555813)
July 25th

Pitcher: Doug Drabek
Hitter: Ed Sprague

Best Athlete: Walter Payton
Best Friends: Matt LeBlanc, Joey Tribbiani

Oh and Billy Wagner
   65. deputydrew Posted: June 11, 2010 at 12:42 AM (#3555970)
kthejoker's roster looks quite a bit like mine...
   66. eric Posted: June 11, 2010 at 07:09 PM (#3556563)
I share the same birthdate as Chase Utley.

He might have the lead in lifetime accomplishments at the moment, but I'm gaining, darnit.

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