Because waiting years and decades to find out isn’t much fun

I take it you don't like watching baseball games? I do, and it can be fun. It can even be very fun when there's a pitchers' duel or a slugfest or some awesome defensive plays. That's fun.

I'll get back to you with my SWAG on the next 600 home run hitter.

would someone with access to insider mind posting the rest of the list?

Does he mean after Pujols?

A year ago today, how many of us would've given poor Adam Dunn a decent shot?

*sigh*

[Didn't/can't RTFA]

I don't think A-Rod's going to get anywhere close to Bonds. He has hit 30 each of the last 2 years, and has been injured this year and will be struggling to get to 20. We'll give him a generous pace going forward of 28/season, which would get him there in the last half of his age 40 season. Of course this assumes that he is still in the league, league offensive levels don't keep dropping, he doesn't get injured (much) again, and doesn't suffer further losses in power as he ages. I don't think he'll do it.

Pujols should easily clear 600 tho. Miggy might, but his pace (~35/year) isn't all that hot, and he's a big guy, as is Prince, a year younger and on a pace more than a year behind. Everyone else seems way more than a decade away.

Funny thing about Pujols, I keep hearing about his decline but his BABIP was like .265 last time I looked. Tack 40 points onto his average and he's most of the way back to where he was last year, and he's still leading the league in bombs. I see no reason not to think Pujols will easily clear 600 barring a career-altering injury. Doesn't seem too likely he'll reach 700, though.

Jose Bautista

Albert Pujols:

June: 1.197 OPS
July: .955 OPS
August: 1.013 OPS

His last 53 games has him at a 1.070 OPS with 21 homers. That is a 65 homer pace over a full season and something like a 50+ homer pace if we went by how many games the Cardinals had played over that timespan.

First 54 games: .720 OPS

I don't think A-Rod's going to get anywhere close to Bonds. He has hit 30 each of the last 2 years, and has been injured this year and will be struggling to get to 20.

ZIPs has him at 50/50, according to the article. He has 626 at age 35, and he may be in decline, but he's also got a good 5 year left in the league at least, unless he gets badly, badly injured. I don't think he'll make it, but he will definitely be "anywhere close" to Bonds if he feels like sticking around long enough to get there.

I see no reason not to think Pujols will easily clear 600 barring a career-altering injury.

ZIPs puts him at 95 percent and projects him over 700.

Other names on the list:

Cabrera (~50%)
Mike Stanton (~25%)
Dunn, Fielder (~10)
Teixiera, Howard, Justin Upton, Jay Bruce (all less than 5%)

Don't want to compromise copyright by going any more in depth than that.

Thanks for the list, Voxter.

Stanton has a 25% shot before he even has 50 HRs?? I know he's young but...

I prefer the we'll never see 300 wins again stories.

Twelve players with 50+ HR by end of age 21 season (via Play Index):

Williams
Cepeda
Jones
Mathews
Horner
Ott
Robinson
Griffey
A-Rod
Kaline
Mantle
Conigliaro

Stanton has 48 with the rest of this season to play - on pace to finish with ~56.
On that list, we have Griffey and A-Rod over 600, Robinson at 586, Williams had 521 but should have had 600+. Maybe 25% isn't a bad guess.

What really helps Stanton's odds is that with a lot of young players, there's overall improvement assumed in order to get them in practical trajectories to 600. In Stanton's case, we don't have to assume HR improvement to put him on a HR trajectory, which is a giant bonus - as Johnson's Theorem states, people tend to overrate the odds of a young player improving. Add a probable baseline that puts him on a HR trajectory to lots of a time and Stanton has good odds. It's not just ZiPS being generally overgenerous with long-term assumptions; Stanton comes out with better odds of 600 HR than all current under-25s combined.

ZIPs puts him at 95 percent and projects him over 700.

Wonder what Zips would have guessed for Jimmy Foxx if it just looked at his career up to age 32 (500)?

ZIPs has him at 50/50, according to the article. He has 626 at age 35, and he may be in decline, but he's also got a good 5 year left in the league at least, unless he gets badly, badly injured. I don't think he'll make it, but he will definitely be "anywhere close" to Bonds if he feels like sticking around long enough to get there.

I agree that he's, at a minimum, going to get in the neighborhood barring calamity. Figure he hits another 5 this year and starts 2012 at 631. Just wild guessing, but let's say he goes:

36: 27
37: 24
38: 19
39: 25
40: 16
41: 13

Where is he then, let's see ... 755, tied with Hank. Then it's off to Tampa Bay at age 42 to crank another 12 and beat Barry. Granted, if he loses a season to injury that could change things. Then again, I personally think he's got at least one more 30+ HR season in him, and it's entirely possible he's got 2 or 3 more. I say he's 60/40 to make it if not a little better.

Ironically once he passes Barry, Barry will be much better off and more appreciated.

Wonder what Zips would have guessed for Jimmy Foxx if it just looked at his career up to age 32 (500)?

I can actually do that. Hold on.

After 32, ZiPS gives Foxx 3547 AB, 134 HR, 451 RBI, and a 281/371/475 average, which puts him at 634 home runs.

Twelve players with 50+ HR by end of age 21 season (via Play Index):

with BAs added:

Williams 336
Cepeda 315
Jones 251 (that's Andruw)
Mathews 274
Horner 295
Ott 331
Robinson 307
Griffey 299
A-Rod 314
Kaline 311
Mantle 295
Conigliaro 273

Stanton is at 259 making him 2nd worst on this list. Mathews made it over 500 but Stanton is way behind the other guys with big totals. And I am contractually obligated to note Stanton's K-rate of 1 per 3 AB -- Andruw (around 1 per 4) is the only guy on that list that's anywhere near him.

On the much brighter side, players through age 21, 750+ PA and an ISO of 225 or more: Stanton is third behind Williams and Mathews ... but eerily similar to Horner. (Foxx, Ott, Robinson, Conigliaro. Not bad, 5 out of 7 chance of making the HoF. :-)

Anyway, I don't think I buy it. He has to improve pretty substantially across the board from where he is to match Thome's career numbers (277/403/557) plus the probability of even lasting 10,000 PAs. OK, substantially improve across the board mainly means drop the K-rate from 30% of PAs to 25% of PAs.

On that list, we have Griffey and A-Rod over 600, Robinson at 586, Williams had 521 but should have had 600+.

Mantle also had a few pretty good years ... and a few late nights. :-)

Why is he not Giancarlo Stanton? I keep expecting him to give up hitting and become a left-handed reliever. I'm getting too old to have to differentiate between multiple Mike Stantons. When I was younger I could even deal with multiple pitching Jeff D'Amicos, but now it's just too much for me.

#14 Can't take credit for that. Both Steve Mann and Clay Davenport were there before me. Clay even noted why -- that most young players have to improve to be worthy of notice.

Anyway, I don't think I buy it. He has to improve pretty substantially across the board from where he is to match Thome's career numbers (277/403/557) plus the probability of even lasting 10,000 PAs. OK, substantially improve across the board mainly means drop the K-rate from 30% of PAs to 25% of PAs.

ZiPS isn't assuming that he'd be as good as Thome, but good enough at hitting HR to have a 1-in-4 shot at 600. Ryan Howard has a non-zero shot as well, and he'll never be as good as Thome.

On the much brighter side, players through age 21, 750+ PA and an ISO of 225 or more: Stanton is third behind Williams and Mathews ... but eerily similar to Horner.

I haven't run Horner, but I maintain that a real shot at 600 wasn't a bad projection for Horner. That Horner didn't in fact hit 600 homers does not in fact mean that the evidence at the time wouldn't lead one to believe that he didn't have a chance. I have about a 1-in-5 chance of catching a flush on the river, but if I don't, it doesn't mean that I didn't have that 1-in-5 chance prior to the card being flipped over. Calvinism is suxx0rs.

Stanton has 48 with the rest of this season to play

Forty-nine. He hit one tonight.

thome is probably my favorite player to never play for my favorite team...just a great hitter his whole career.

I don't think A-Rod's going to get anywhere close to Bonds. He has hit 30 each of the last 2 years, and has been injured this year and will be struggling to get to 20. We'll give him a generous pace going forward of 28/season, which would get him there in the last half of his age 40 season. Of course this assumes that he is still in the league, league offensive levels don't keep dropping, he doesn't get injured (much) again, and doesn't suffer further losses in power as he ages. I don't think he'll do it.

I've been thinking along these lines, too, though I think he'll get close, and if the Yankees make him a full time DH (something oddly missing from most of these discussions) he has a shot at 800. Fwiw, of Roddy's most similars at BBRef, only Aaron got more than 130 HRs from age 36 on. Mays got 118 and wasn't completely useless his final season. I imagine if Alex is 12 HRs short and can still hit a little, he'll get every chance to make it. OTOH, at that stage of their careers, 12 HRs in a season is by no means a given, and in his last TWO seasons Mays only barely beat 12, total.

multiple pitching Jeff D'Amicos

Y'know, I've been pretty good at this sort of thing (not fazed at all by the two Alex Gonzalezes e.g.) but I could never keep these guys straight.

Dan ... I understand probability thanks.

I maybe could have made my point about Thome more clearly. Thome is a better hitter (than Stanton to date) across the board, including that Thome for his career hits HRs at a higher rate than Stanton to date and Thome only just got there. So, yes, to project Stanton to get 600 HRs, you pretty much have to project that he will become as good a hitter as Thome or that he will last longer than Thome (in PA terms) or at the very least that he will start hitting HR more frequently than Thome (and maintain that throughout his career). I don't think that's a 25% chance.

As to Howard ... well, he has the advantage of 280 HR under his belt. He also has the advantage that, thanks to walking less I suppose, he actually hits HRs more frequently than Thome. In fact Thome only has two seasons which are substantially better than Howard's career rate. Even so, without any decline in his HR rate, Howard needs 5000 more PA or 7.5-8 more full seasons. I'm not sure there's a 25% chance his body has that many seasons left in it (with no decline in HR rate).

It's certainly the era of the big HR hitter -- Bonds, AROD, Sosa, McGwire, Pujols, Juan Gone and Howard all are just behind or ahead of Thome in HR/PA (that will teach him to walk so often) -- so the notion that Stanton will take that step forward into Thome/Howard (in HR/PA terms) territory is possible. I just don't think the odds of him maintaining/improving his current HR rate over another 8-10,000 PA is 25%.

After 32, ZiPS gives Foxx 3547 AB, 134 HR, 451 RBI, and a 281/371/475 average, which puts him at 634 home runs.

Awesome, thanks! Any idea why ZIPS is so bullish on Pujols, then? Pujols OPS+ to date (171), Foxx through age 31 (170), and Foxx should still have a decent HR advantage at the end of the age 31 season (lead is currently 27, and then Foxx hit 36 at age 32).

By the way ... through age 21, Horner is the only player (700+ PA) to hit HRs at a pace of .0575 HR/PA or higher. Lower it to .055 and you pick up Mathews and Stanton. Increase the age to 22 and you pick up -- go figure -- Joe DiMaggio.

By the way, Horner blows it away at .066; before tonight Stanton was at .056; may not seem like much but would put him 100 HR behind Horner at 10,000 PA.

If instead of age you go with "1st 3 seasons" you get 19 players ... and if you had bet me that Chris Duncan would be on this list, you would now own my house (and mortgage -- lucky you!). Duncan through 756 PA: 272/356/528 ... better than Stanton's 259/336/517. :-)

So there's my official prediction -- Stanton is the next Chris Duncan. :-)

Seriously, there are some non-greats on that list -- Duncan, Deer, Sexson, Wes Covington (you now own my house twice over), York, Kingman, Kittle. Yes, obviously, they're older than Stanton and that does mean a lot. I'm just sayin'.

Y'know, I've been pretty good at this sort of thing (not fazed at all by the two Alex Gonzalezes e.g.) but I could never keep these guys straight.

I had that problem with the Bobbys Jones. Not only did they have the same name, not only were they teammates at one point, but they were both slightly worse than league average right-handed National League starting pitchers.

When Stanton was on first base the other day, he towered over Freddy Freeman... who is 6'5"!

Fwiw, of Roddy's most similars at BBRef, only Aaron got more than 130 HRs from age 36 on. Mays got 118 and wasn't completely useless his final season.

But both of these guys were much better hitters at comparative ages than A-Rod is now. Aaron had a 194 OPS+ at age 37, and averaged around 155 for the previous 4 years (Mays almost as good), while A-Rod has now dropped below 130 for '10/'11. If he keeps bleeding ability at a rate of -5 to -10 per year, he'll be at replacement level (for the DH slot) by age 40, and if he hits the wall before then, all bets are off-unlike Jeter I doubt the Yankees will keep sticking him out there.

Awesome, thanks! Any idea why ZIPS is so bullish on Pujols, then? Pujols OPS+ to date (171), Foxx through age 31 (170), and Foxx should still have a decent HR advantage at the end of the age 31 season (lead is currently 27, and then Foxx hit 36 at age 32).

Well, for one, ZiPS knows the actual offensive environment of the war years.

But both of these guys were much better hitters at comparative ages than A-Rod is now. Aaron had a 194 OPS+ at age 37, and averaged around 155 for the previous 4 years (Mays almost as good), while A-Rod has now dropped below 130 for '10/'11. If he keeps bleeding ability at a rate of -5 to -10 per year, he'll be at replacement level (for the DH slot) by age 40, and if he hits the wall before then, all bets are off-unlike Jeter I doubt the Yankees will keep sticking him out there.

Eh, Jim Thome still has a job at 40 as a cromulent backup DH/pinch hitter and he has hit 11 HR's this year. If The Rod is 20 HR's away, SOMEONE will sign and play him.

I had that problem with the Bobbys Jones. Not only did they have the same name, not only were they teammates at one point, but they were both slightly worse than league average right-handed National League starting pitchers.

Were there three of them? I remember the righty that pitched for the Mets and the lefty that bounced around a bit, was there a third one? MLBPA needs to be like the Actors Union and forbid the same names.

Were there three of them? I remember the righty that pitched for the Mets and the lefty that bounced around a bit, was there a third one? MLBPA needs to be like the Actors Union and forbid the same names.

No, just two. And besides the lefty-righty thing, there happened to be another characteristic that made distinguishing between them a little easier than it was for the dueling D'Amicos.

When the current millennium was new, the Padres had both Matt Whisenant and Matt Whiteside in the bullpen. There was never any real reason to bother distinguishing them, though. (although one was L and one R)

Eh, Jim Thome still has a job at 40 as a cromulent backup DH/pinch hitter and he has hit 11 HR's this year. If The Rod is 20 HR's away, SOMEONE will sign and play him.

Thome also put up OPS+ of 155 and 150 at ages 35-36 - A-Rod hasn't been that good of a hitter for three years now. Still, agree on your second point.

The Bobby Joneses were both on the Mets in 2000, but one was a starter and one a reliever at that point.

The weirdest thing to me is that there's another Ryan Braun who pitched in the majors from 2006-2007.

Seriously, there are some non-greats on that list -- Duncan, Deer, Sexson, Wes Covington (you now own my house twice over), York, Kingman, Kittle.

I think this is what makes Giancarlo one of the most fun guys in baseball to watch right now. He's Eddie Mathews or he's DaveKingman Rob Deer. He's a big time prospect in the big leagues figuring things out or he washes out.

The K rate is scary, and consistent with his minor league career, but he's 21!

He's 5-15 with 4 HRs, 1 2B, 4 Ks, 2 BBs in his last 4 games.

51 taters for his career now. If he gets to 60 by the end of the year, do we think differently about him, K rate and BA aside?