20 years, several billion dollars!

Whatever.

His value over the next three years or so is affected significantly by whether or not he plays a lot of catcher over those years. For the Red Sox, if they feel like he could be their primary catcher for the next three years, that solves what they have not really addressed in many years: the team's post-Varitek catching situation.

If they think he will be a first baseman in 2011-2013 (and beyond), then his bat is obviously less valuable. Also, while Youkilis can still play a good third base, and Beltre and Lowell are free agents at the end of the season, I'm not sure an infield with Youk at 3B and Martinez at 1B is that good defensively, particularly in the out years...

I'd say, if he can catch a fair amount for the next three years, I'd give him 3 yrs/$42 million, or 4 yrs/$52m or something...

It would probably have been a good idea to lock him up this offseason because the Yankees will be in the market for a catcher next year. Unfortunately, his AAV is really low right now, something that an extension would ruin. They could easily sign him for Posada money and even if he switched to 1B full-time fairly soon, he'd be worth it.

Didn't see Balboni's post before I posted. To his, I'd say, crunch the numbers on what a 1B with Martinez's bat would be worth. It'd be fairly close to the numbers you suggest above, even without giving him any boost in hitting for the reduced wear and tear from not catching.

Sorry, Martinez, not with Mauer out there. Until Joe makes a decision about where he wants to go, Victor better not hold his breath.

Ziffbot, FTW!

Mauer isn't out there. Even if he was, the Red Sox are not going to trade for him.

Ortiz is an FA at the end of the year too isn't he? Seems more sensible to me than VMart to 1B and Youk to 3B. Yes, in agreement that his greatest value is if he can stay at C.

even without giving him any boost in hitting for the reduced wear and tear from not catching.

We say this all the time but I don't know that there's actual evidence to suggest that Cs moved to easier positions hit better. Obviously you get their bat in the lineup more often (which is good in VMart's case) and there have been a few cases where moving a C at a young age may have helped (Biggio, Murphy, Zeile, Nevin, Delgado). Of course there's the issue that you usually don't move a C who can hit until it's near the bitter end (Bench, Piazza, Simmons) when it may be too late anyway. There was of course Joe Torre but, after destroying the league in his first year away from C, he returned to the form you'd expect of a good hitter in his decline phase.

I'm having a hard time thinking of other C mid-career switches. Hundley didn't work out; Cliff Johnson was never much of a catcher. Maybe there just aren't enough cases to inform us.

Joe Torre went from Catcher to 3rd base and 1st base and won a MVP as a 3rd baseman. Although if you look at his defensive numbers on B-Ref, he was HORRID at 3rd base for the most part.

Gary Carter at third base. :-)

I'm having a hard time thinking of other C mid-career switches. Hundley didn't work out; Cliff Johnson was never much of a catcher. Maybe there just aren't enough cases to inform us.

Well, both Brian Downing and B.J. Surhoff are cases that would seem to support the notion that the move away from C allows a player to meaningfully improve his hitting. But the larger point is clearly valid: the move itself has been so rare at the major league level in mid-career that there isn't enough empirical data from which to draw firm conclusions.

Ortiz is an FA at the end of the year too isn't he? Seems more sensible to me than VMart to 1B and Youk to 3B.

Question: what kind of line would Papi have to post this year for the Sox to pick up his $12.5 m option for 2011?

I know, I know, it's very likely that he's gone after this year (if not sooner), but what if he posted a steady, productive 900 OPS (essentially replicating his June-September performance)? Would they at least think about it?

...

Nah.

Mauer isn't out there. Even if he was, the Red Sox are not going to trade for him.

This is kind of the key point for me. The current M.O. has not been to trade away their top prospects or to outbid the Yankees (who would certainly be involved), so it makes sense to move on to the next guy, especially since he apparently really wants to sign in Boston.

The only counter point would be the CBT implications, and since I doubt they'll manage to get and stay under the threshold, it seems like a better idea to lock up VMart now.

even without giving him any boost in hitting for the reduced wear and tear from not catching.

We say this all the time but I don't know that there's actual evidence to suggest that Cs moved to easier positions hit better.

Yeah, that's why I left it out.

Mauer isn't out there. Even if he was, the Red Sox are not going to trade for him.

The Sox would trade for him if he was available. He's a young super-duper star. But he's not, which makes it even more important for the Sox to lock up Martinez. He's the only very-good catcher out there.

Joe Torre went from Catcher to 3rd base and 1st base and won a MVP as a 3rd baseman.

Yeah, I mentioned him. :-) Other than his insane year, he kept hitting roughly the same as he had.

Downing's one. He had his best year as a C at age 28 (an amazing fluke season). He played very little at 29 or 30 and then, as if by magic, added about 50+ points to his ISO for the rest of his career. (Seriously, through age 30, his ISO was 110; ages 31-41 it was 180.)

Surhoff is a realistic example though.

Downing's one. He had his best year as a C at age 28 (an amazing fluke season). He played very little at 29 or 30 and then, as if by magic, added about 50+ points to his ISO for the rest of his career. (Seriously, through age 30, his ISO was 110; ages 31-41 it was 180.)

I believe Bill James wrote something in one of his abstracts about how impressive and admirable Downing's transformation. He attributed Downing's change to a newfound weight lifting program. If memory serves me right, James also mentions that Downing's eye sight improved remarkably. The piece was a tribute to Downing. I suppose these days people might be suspicious of how Downing was able to change so drastically.