BBTF's Newsblog Discussion :: ESPN: Will wins determine Cy Young winner?

Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Thursday, September 30, 2010

ESPN: Will wins determine Cy Young winner?

Let’s let Joe Morgan answer that. (If anyone needs me I’ll be on the Benzo forum)

M@ (Hattiesburg, MS)

As wide open as the AL CY Young race is, I haven’t heard Jon Lester mentioned once, even though his numbers are better than C.C.‘s. across the board, an equal to Felix. For instance, opponents hit .243 off CC, .213 against Felix and .214 against Lester. Did his flirtation with a no-hitter against the Yankees Saturday put him on the map, finally? Who would you give the CY to?

Joe Morgan (before Hernandez and Sabathia’s wins Tuesday)

I think he’s always been in the race in my mind. I like what Felix Hernandez has done, but he has won only 12 games. People say that he doesn’t get support from his teamamtes, but guess what, every award is a team award. You can’t win the MVP without your teammates. Do we look at an MVP candidate and say his team didn’t give him a chance to drive in runs? The fact is that Felix has won 12 games and CC has won 20. It is harder to win in a championship environment in New York than in Felix’s situation. Just look at AJ Burnett this year. Felix has done a good job this year, but he’s not in the same difficulty level of pitching this year as CC.

Repoz Posted: September 30, 2010 at 08:03 PM | 39 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: awards, mariners, yankees

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

1. Repoz

Posted: September 30, 2010 at 08:14 PM (#3652217)

BTW...Steve Phillips predict on Mitch Levy's KJR show this morning that 20 out of 28 writers would vote for Felix Hernandez first.

2. Cowboy Popup Posted: September 30, 2010 at 08:19 PM (#3652221)

Do we look at an MVP candidate and say his team didn’t give him a chance to drive in runs?

Well...Ah, nevermind.

3. Curse of the Graffanino (dfan) Posted: September 30, 2010 at 08:29 PM (#3652226)

It is harder to win in a championship environment in New York than in Felix’s situation.

Well, you can't argue with that.

4. Bob Tufts Posted: September 30, 2010 at 08:34 PM (#3652230)

You would think that living in the same time zone he'd have watched Felix and seen his "fear" factor.

5. Bob Tufts Posted: September 30, 2010 at 08:35 PM (#3652231)

Joe Morgan, MVP 1975-76, did not lead the league in average, HR's or RBI's. Take those trophys away, as he led the league in WAR, OBP, OPS and OPS+, which aren't relevant in Morganville.

6. Adam B. Posted: September 30, 2010 at 08:36 PM (#3652233)

Got that, kids? It's harder to get wins when you're on a winning team. Losing teams win more.

7. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: September 30, 2010 at 08:45 PM (#3652243)

Sadly Greenberg and Golic were trotting out some similar themes, at least in terms of defending 'Wins' as an important criteria for determining the CY.

8. Dale Sams Posted: September 30, 2010 at 08:50 PM (#3652249)

It's like every stupid thing Joe Morgan has ever said rolled into one paragraph.

Thank god it's the Amalie Benjamin's that actually vote.

9. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: September 30, 2010 at 08:51 PM (#3652250)

I'm starting to wonder if Morgan is just &$%#ing with everyone. His comments are almost too perfect.

10. Robinson Cano Plate Like Home Posted: September 30, 2010 at 08:51 PM (#3652251)

Read the blurb again, guys. Morgan's talking about the race in his mind.

11. TerpNats Posted: September 30, 2010 at 08:56 PM (#3652254)

They were discussing this on ESPN radio this morning and Buster Olney cited Hernandez's record against the Yankees and Red Sox. Uh, Buster, one of those teams is not going to the postseason. How'd he do against the Rays, Twins and Rangers, or don't they count in the Bristol-centric worldview?

12. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: September 30, 2010 at 09:00 PM (#3652259)

I'm starting to wonder if Morgan is just &$%#ing with everyone. His comments are almost too perfect.

That would be awesome, of course.
As others have pointed out, he seemed pretty much the opposite of stupid while he was still playing.

13. Petuniaviles Posted: September 30, 2010 at 09:02 PM (#3652263)

It's like every stupid thing Joe Morgan has ever said rolled into one paragraph.

Close. But he left out 'consistent' (about 3-4 instances).

14. Randy Jones

Posted: September 30, 2010 at 09:02 PM (#3652264)

They were discussing this on ESPN radio this morning and Buster Olney cited Hernandez's record against the Yankees and Red Sox. Uh, Buster, one of those teams is not going to the postseason. How'd he do against the Rays, Twins and Rangers, or don't they count in the Bristol-centric worldview?

In Buster's defense, the Yankees and Red Sox are 1 and 2 in R/G and team OPS+. So it would make sense to bring up his performance against them as they are the best offensive teams. Of course, the Rays, Twins, and Rangers are 3, 5, and 4 in R/G and 5th, 3rd, and 7th in team OPS+, so yeah, he probably should have mentioned Felix's numbers against them too.

15. Bhaakon Posted: September 30, 2010 at 09:53 PM (#3652293)

They were discussing this on ESPN radio this morning and Buster Olney cited Hernandez's record against the Yankees and Red Sox. Uh, Buster, one of those teams is not going to the postseason. How'd he do against the Rays, Twins and Rangers, or don't they count in the Bristol-centric worldview?

If you're going to use that argument, what are CC's numbers against the Yankees?

Oops.

16. villageidiom Posted: September 30, 2010 at 10:36 PM (#3652314)

To the popular notion that Felix didn't pitch in any meaningful games past May: Around half his starts were against the Yankees, Red Sox, White Sox, Twins, Rangers, Padres, and Reds. Were those teams aware those games weren't meaningful? Maybe that's why he had a 2.26 ERA in those games.

To the popular notion that Felix didn't give his team a chance to win: He had 21 starts (vs. Sabathia's 15) in which he went 7 or more innings and gave up 2 ER or fewer. Hernandez was 12-4, with 7 ND, in starts meeting that criteria. Sabathia was 12-1 (with 2 ND). The popular counterargument would be that Sabathia pitched to the score, that he didn't have to give up so few runs with such strong run support. Sure he didn't have to in order to get credit for a win. To win the Cy Young, your actual performance should count more than your theoretical performance.

17. Blackadder Posted: September 30, 2010 at 11:06 PM (#3652332)

Joe Morgan, MVP 1975-76, did not lead the league in average, HR's or RBI's. Take those trophys away, as he led the league in WAR, OBP, OPS and OPS+, which aren't relevant in Morganville.

Yeah, but you are obviously a geek who has never played a day of baseball in your life, so what the hell do you know? :)

About Morgan's intelligence, I think even today when he is broadcasting, he can make very insightful comments about nitty-gritty of the game, e.g. what sort of thing the baserunner is looking for as a tip the pitcher is going to follow through in the pitch. He gets silly when he starts to talk about general issues of value and whatnot, but there is no reason he has to have a decent grasp of those issues in order to have a high amount on "baseball" intelligence.

18. Hello Rusty Kuntz, Goodbye Rusty Cars Posted: September 30, 2010 at 11:42 PM (#3652351)

Read the blurb again, guys. Morgan's talking about the race in his mind.

That literally made me spit hot tea all over my groin.

Hell, I'm going to read it again.

19. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: October 01, 2010 at 12:14 AM (#3652367)

[16] I'm not so sure that any of those arguments are nearly as popular as you seem to think they are.

20. St.Philly Posted: October 01, 2010 at 01:37 AM (#3652417)

Really don't follow the American League anymore (hardly have time to follow the Phillies anymore) and thus I have no clue as to who should win, but I do think for a player on a bad team to win the award (Cy or MVP) they should have to clearly be the best to win. Jon Lester is a slightly better pitcher on the road than Hernandez and we all know there is a huge difference between their home parks.

Has anyone since Carlton won the Cy Young while pitching for a last place team? And as Joe Morgan could tell you, Carlton won 27 games that year.

21. Danny Posted: October 01, 2010 at 01:50 AM (#3652423)

Has anyone since Carlton won the Cy Young while pitching for a last place team?

Greinke, last year.

22. AROM Posted: October 01, 2010 at 02:18 AM (#3652443)

23. Baldrick Posted: October 01, 2010 at 02:21 AM (#3652447)

Greinke, last year.

Yeah, but anyone RECENTLY?

24. The Voice of America Posted: October 01, 2010 at 02:25 AM (#3652451)

@AROM: Felix was shut down for the year.

25. Srul Itza Posted: October 01, 2010 at 02:25 AM (#3652452)

As wide open as the AL CY Young race is, I haven’t heard Jon Lester mentioned once

And after his 4 inning, 8 ER performance today, you won't be hearing him mentioned much more.

EDIT: I see AROM beat me to the punch with the good news.

26. Srul Itza Posted: October 01, 2010 at 02:31 AM (#3652457)

Meanwhile, with his 53rd Home Run -- a Grand Slam -- Bautista is now tied with A-Rod with 123 RBI, both second to sidelined Cabrera with 126.

27. Repoz

Posted: October 01, 2010 at 02:52 AM (#3652464)

Meanwhile, with his 53rd Home Run -- a Grand Slam -- Bautista is now tied with A-Rod with 123 RBI, both second to sidelined Cabrera with 126.

Michael the Kay..."Bautista's batting average is too low to be considered a viable MVP candidate." (re:Cano)

OBP

.380-Bautista
.374-Cano

28. Repoz

Posted: October 01, 2010 at 03:03 AM (#3652466)

Bautista just hit #54!

29. Greg Pope Posted: October 01, 2010 at 03:22 AM (#3652478)

So for those people that follow this. Why isn't David Price being mentioned for CY? Does he have a shot?

I'm asking because there's a huge David Price fanboy in my office who keeps saying that it's between Sabathia and Price. I want to bet him that Felix finishes higher than Price in the voting totals.

30. Famous Original Joe C Posted: October 01, 2010 at 03:32 AM (#3652483)

So for those people that follow this. Why isn't David Price being mentioned for CY? Does he have a shot?

No good reason, so long as we're discussing Sabathia - but he's not going to win, because he's not part of the media dialog at this point. He'll end up 3rd after the way Lester pitched tonight - him or Buchholz, but I'd take him (actually, I'd take him second).

31. Biff isn't really an apt handle anymore Posted: October 01, 2010 at 04:49 AM (#3652493)

Lester doesn't respond well to Cy talk, I guess. It's fairly anecdotal, but I recall his last stinker (2 IP, 9 ER) came soon after he had started building some buzz.

32. drdr Posted: October 01, 2010 at 07:01 AM (#3652517)

One thing that is rarely mentioned is that Felix is pitching in the best pitchers' park in AL (and has second-best in the same division), while CC is pitching in what will probably settle as slight hitters' park, and this year's PF put it so. So, Felix's and CC's numbers are closer than their raw numbers. Same goes for Lester/Buchholz vs Felix.
Also, Seattle hasn't been 10 wins above average on defense, as some predicted they might have been, but what's comparison between SEA, NYY and BOS D's? CC's left side of the infield is pretty immobile.
Now, all those adjustments will probably still show Felix ahead, but not as much as raw numbers.

33. shoewizard Posted: October 01, 2010 at 10:49 AM (#3652529)

On the far left you can see the ranking of OPP Qual OPS.... Felix rank 31st in AL with Qual OPP faced OPS .727 CC ranks 38th, with 721. So Felix faced tougher lineups. I sorted it by the difference between OPS against and OPP Qual OPS, as here once again, Felix blows away the field.

#    NAME    TEAM    IP    PA    OPS Against    OPP_QUAL_OPS    Diff
31    Felix Hernandez    SEA    249.7    1001    .585     .727     -.142 
4    Clay Buchholz    BOS    173.7    711    .615     .741     -.126 
27    Jon Lester    BOS    204    836    .608     .730     -.122 
26    Jered Weaver    ANA    217.3    877    .618     .730     -.112 
21    Trevor Cahill    OAK    189.7    758    .623     .732     -.109 
9    David Price    TBA    207.7    858    .639     .738     -.099 
37    Justin Verlander    DET    224.3    925    .630     .721     -.091 
40    C.j. Wilson    TEX    199    829    .623     .709     -.086 
17    John Danks    CHA    207    852    .655     .735     -.080 
15    Francisco Liriano    MIN    186.3    783    .658     .736     -.078 
36    Gio Gonzalez    OAK    193.7    821    .649     .724     -.075 
38    Cc Sabathia    NYA    237.7    970    .656     .720     -.064 
32    Dallas Braden    OAK    187.7    761    .669     .727     -.058 
14    Ricky Romero    TOR    202    853    .679     .736     -.057 
13    Douglas Fister    SEA    165.7    694    .681     .737     -.056 
39    Colby Lewis    TEX    196    826    .665     .718     -.053 
12    Shaun Marcum    TOR    188.3    774    .697     .737     -.040 
5    Fausto Carmona    CLE    204.3    856    .704     .740     -.036 
16    Max Scherzer    DET    195.7    800    .699     .735     -.036 
29    Jason Vargas    SEA    192.7    811    .699     .728     -.029 
22    Phil Hughes    NYA    175.3    727    .705     .731     -.026 
30    Zack Greinke    KCA    213    892    .701     .727     -.026 
1    Brian Matusz    BAL    169.7    737    .727     .745     -.018 
25    Carl Pavano    MIN    214    876    .716     .730     -.014 
3    Jeremy Guthrie    BAL    201.3    843    .732     .744     -.012 
7    Brett Cecil    TOR    172.7    726    .733     .740     -.007 
2    Justin Masterson    CLE    179    798    .739     .745     -.006 
35    Gavin Floyd    CHA    187.3    798    .719     .724     -.005 
34    Jeff Niemann    TBA    173.3    730    .727     .726     .001 
23    Matt Garza    TBA    197.7    826    .737     .730     .007 
24    Ervin Santana    ANA    216.3    924    .738     .730     .008 
33    Mark Buehrle    CHA    204.3    873    .756     .726     .030 
20    John Lackey    BOS    207.3    899    .771     .733     .038 
6    Kyle Davies    KCA    178    791    .788     .740     .048 
28    Jeremy Bonderman    DET    166.7    731    .782     .729     .053 
19    Scott Baker    MIN    170.3    725    .793     .734     .059 
10    James Shields    TBA    198.3    871    .815     .738     .077 
18    Kevin Millwood    BAL    190.7    842    .813     .734     .079 
11    A.j. Burnett    NYA    180.7    802    .823     .738     .085 
8    Brad Bergesen    BAL    163    720    .842     .739     .103 

Sorry, don't know why using CODE to bracket the spread sheet data doesn't work here. Not sure what I'm doing wrong. If anyone with editing powers can clean this up, much obliged.

34. villageidiom Posted: October 01, 2010 at 11:28 AM (#3652537)

[16] I'm not so sure that any of those arguments are nearly as popular as you seem to think they are.

I live in CT and listen to sports talk radio. They're disproportionately popular here among the Yankees-fan talk radio personalities I hear who are overly sensitive about Sabathia's worthiness.

35. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: October 01, 2010 at 11:50 AM (#3652539)

Lester had a shot if he could have won 20, kept his ERA under 3, with his peripheral stats looking better than Sabathia's. White Sox ended that shot today with 8 runs, 14 baserunners in 4 innings. Thanks a lot Lester, you knocked me down to 2nd place in WHIP for my fantasy league.

And if Sabathia had managed to get his ERA under 3 he'd have won in a landslide. He had his shot, but if your CYA argument is that you're the guy who went out there and dominated every fifth day in the heat of a tight pennant race, then you don't get to give up a six run inning to your team's main rival in the heat of a tight pennant race.

I live in CT and listen to sports talk radio.

Well, see, that's your problem right there.

36. AROM Posted: October 01, 2010 at 12:00 PM (#3652541)

I am angered that Felix would be shut down for the year. Some of us are still contending for fantasy leagues. It would be nice to have him undo the damage Lester did to my team.

37. Biff isn't really an apt handle anymore Posted: October 01, 2010 at 02:21 PM (#3652626)

I am angered that Felix would be shut down for the year. Some of us are still contending for fantasy leagues. It would be nice to have him undo the damage Lester did to my team.

Man, granted Felix didn't get too many winzzz, but how bad must the rest of your team been to not have it locked up with Felix/Lester?!

(Just messing with you, of course...can never tell if people will understand tone on the Internet...)

38. bfan Posted: October 01, 2010 at 04:03 PM (#3652728)

Well I hope Weaver passes King Felix in K's (likely); Bucholtz passes him in E.R.A. (possible), so when King Felix wins the award we can fiind the sub-set of starters who win the award while not winning either the ERA or the strikeout total, and while winning 8 games less than the league leader.

39. Nathan Kunkel Posted: October 01, 2010 at 04:14 PM (#3652741)

my prediction: WINS will be a factor in determining this year's Cy Young Award winners...

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

<< Back to main

Thursday, September 30, 2010

ESPN: Will wins determine Cy Young winner?

Reader Comments and Retorts

Support BBTF

Bookmarks

Hot Topics