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KarlMagnum will be upset if Juan Gone isn't part of the deal.
This, only months after my daughter decided that Johnny Damon was her favorite Red Sox player.
That, a couple of years after we bought that Nomar bobblehead.
The idiom family will now start to root for Alex Gonzalez.
Is this the end of Nixon's administration? Why bother bringing in Gonzalez yesterday if you're ready to bring in Wily Mo?
Also, weren't the BoSox having some pitching depth problems? I know there about 100 Cy Young Award winners at Pawtucket, but what's Plan B if these guys flop?
I like this trade for the Red Sox. Arroyo doesn't serve much purpose at this point, and even if Wily Mo won't contribute much right now, his upside is so astronomical that I just love the trade.
I liked Arroyo, sad to see him go rather than guys I dislike (Wells) or could take or leave (Clement), but he had the cheap contract and the youth. I don't think a the GAB will be a good park for him, off the top of my head.
Wily Mo is a fascinating player. He's only 24 and he still has awesome power and he still has barely any ability to cause a baseball to meet a bat. He's built like a very aggressive fire hydrant, and his ZRs have never been good in the outfield, though he doesn't seem to be a disaster (more of a -5/-10 kinda guy, eyeballing it). Should be hella fun and hella frustrating to watch.
What will Wily Mo do? He can platoon with Nixon and I guess he can theoretically back up CF, though that latter doesn't sound like a great idea. He's got amazing upside, in a Sammy Sosa kind of way - just a little more discipline or contact ability could make him a great hitter - but it is hard to see him having the same chance to develop if he's just a part-timer.
Realistically, though, Nixon can be counted on for, what, 300 PA? That's probably a half-season of regular play for Wily Mo.
(As an aside, was anyone else really sad the day they discovered Pena's name was pronounced "Willie Mo" and not "Wile E. Mo"? I was.)
Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, Clement, Wells. Those Pawtucket guys are their Plan B.
no.
To #5, I think Willy Mo fills several needs. Mohr, JuanGone and Willy Mo can be thrown against the wall to see who sticks, a la 1st base 2003, and Theo remembers that working out pretty well. Plus, as others have said, we have a little Nixon/Manny insurance. And as even more others have pointed out, he is a sort of positional 'prospect,' another lacking spot in the Sox depth chart. This was definately a good deal for the Sox. Pena is controlled through '08, accorinding to SOSH.
Now, I am disappointed that he is going to be a platoon player after I drafted him as an extra outfielder on my fantasy team last night.
when i first heard the rumours, instead of thinking nixon was gone, i thought this meant *manny* might be gone.
As I understand it, and I could be wrong, there never really were any no-trade assurances made. Even Arroyo has said so - he knew that there was a possibility he would be traded. After all, his name came up in trade rumours all winter long.
IIRC they said that they weren't shopping him, but couldn't guarantee that nobody would come along and make an offer they couldn't refuse.
While I suppose they could have refused this trade, I certainly can't fault them for making it. I've been saying all along that Arroyo's contract is the kind that you keep, not trade, but I like Pena's "contract" much more, and they fill an organizational depth problem (OF) by trading from their surplus of starters.
I just wish Willy MO would not swnig at pitches outside the zone.
Absolutely. I still think of him as Wiley Mo.
What I don't like about this deal:
There is practically an entire roster worth of disgruntled pros spread around the league who feel like the Red Sox are not a management team you can trust. Depending on how the media spins this trade, it could become bullet point #1 for this theory. I think its fair to say at some point this might affect a free-agent signing.
Look at Damon and Varitek. Now, I have no problem with letting Damon go, but from a player's perspective they both came to the team, played their tails off, helped the team win a championship, were positive locker room guys, and earned their paychecks. The mysterious front-office, with very little player communication, annoints Varitek their captain, gives him a generous contract and even breaks their own 'rule' giving him a no-trade clause. Damon? Eh, they stamped his Chinatown bus-ticket to the Bronx.
On the rotation question - nevermind, I'm an idiot.
On the deal, isn't it more that he'll platoon w/ Trot, be the 4th outfielder generally, and then replace Trot in 07
There was talk of the great leadership of Cap'n Tek as early as 2001, when people was saying that it was really his injury that killed the team, not Pedro's or Nomar's. I think, whatever the reason, that Varitek has been perceived as a team leader for quite a while. Damon's a fun guy and an idiot.
I think there are people who have a legitimate bone to pick with this front office, but I don't think the treatment of Varitek is a strong example.
Not necessarily saying that the Red Sox were wrong to trade Arroyo, but they certainly displayed the least amount of loyalty possible.
Since you seem to be in the know, how little player communication? How little did they talk with players to learn their thoughts on Varitek's leadership skills?
Or are you filling in the blanks on this info, and then reaching a conclusion?
Or are you reaching a conclusion, and then filling in the blanks?
Yes. I thought that his parents were maybe Looney Tunes fans (or it was a nickname he picked up in the Latino leagues by being an inveterate practical joker or something), but it's rather disillusioning to find out that his name is just "l" challenged...
Arroyo is not a front-line pitcher, even for the Reds. His G/F ratio of .85 will certainly cause...problems. The only good thing is if he turns out league average (which, with all of those flyballs, will be tough) he'll be relatively inexpensive.
Plus, they gave up Pena. The guy's only averaged a HR every 16 AB.
Pena's comps through age 23 include Maris, Killebrew, Bobby Bonds, and Willie Horton. Arroyo's comps through age 28? Rodrigo Lopez, Ted Lilly, Brett Tomko, and 7 guys who were out of baseball before turning 34 (3 before turning 31).
Crapcrapcrapcrapcrapcrapcrap.
If so, that late-round pickup in my AL-only draft looks very keen right about now...
Instant Sosa - just add juice.
I guess this gives Ryan Freel an OF job, though Chris Denorfia might take one spot before the year is over. Rich Aurilia should be the 2B, unless the manager thinks stopwatch time back to the dugout is an important performance marker - and gives the job to Womack.
Last year Wily Mo hit .291/.345/.536 vs lefties, so this has the makings of a good platoon. Fantasy value for both him and Nixon drops to zero in mixed leagues.
Arroyo will be pretty bad for the Reds. Where did all the strikeouts go in 2005? 40 fewer K's in 30 more innings. He's a time bomb.
I'm thrilled that Cincy kept Kearns, but am a little upset that Arroyo is all we got in return. I'd feel a lot more comfortable if this deal opened a spot for someone like Matt Lawton instead of either Hatteberg or Womack or Freel.
I also wished he had a brother named Larry Mo Pena, who we could nickname "Curly".
From the Red Sox side, I'm just not that high on Wily Mo. I've always followed his career since he was an ol' Yankees hand, and I don't think he's ever going to be a good player. He didn't improve last season, and, right now, is a league average hitter with catastrophic defense. Most of the prodigious-power guys who develop into stars have already had a good season (say, hitting 110OPS+ or above) before they turn 24; Wily Mo hasn't. You might get Jesse Barfield out of Willy Mo, but you might also get a no-walks version of Dave Kingman. Obviously, if he can hit .270-280 at the MLB level, that'll probably come with a .330 OBP and .550 SLG, and he'll be a useful part (though not a star, given his position and defense).
Red Sox fans have to hope he takes a Great Leap Foward in his mid-20's and turns into Roger Maris, or starts doing whatever Sammy did.
OTOH, you have the Reds, who just brought another flyball pitcher into a park that kills flyballers. You'd think that teams would be better at exploiting home-park advantages, since they're constant from year to year and can allow you to get value out of a player that's less useful for another team. This is kind of the opposite of that.
Where would Soriano fit in Boston?
If they'd waited until after opening day, I could have kept him for the entire season. This is brutal.
I like the sentiment, but I don't think Soriano would be the guy shipped to Boston.
It'd be much easier to send Vidro to Boston, with Pena and one of the Alexes (Cora or Gonzalez) or perhaps Loretta coming back to Washington.
Wily Mo Pena, Super Genius.
I like the sound of that. Wily... Mo... Pena, SUPer GENius.
Dunn to LF, Hatteberg to 1B.
So after it all washes out (Casey for Hatteberg, 600 Kearns PA, Tony F. Womack), the Reds offense is significantly older and worse, their defense is at best the same, they weakened their bench, and they added 2 more flyball happy pitchers.
All of the sudden, the basement of the division is looking more likely.
He had a 121 OPS+ in 2004. The Red Sox also have a ton of OBP-heavy bats/advanced prospects. Their best power prospect is probably Luis Soto who struggled in the SAL at 19 last year. They traded from strength to add cheap power to their system. The Red Sox should also be able to get something more valuable to them than Arroyo for WMP. It's hard not to like this trade for the Red Sox from a baseball perspective. Dealing a guy after he signed a below-market extension has got to look creepy, though.
Indeed he did, and I stand corrected. I read it as 101.
Red Sox fans don't have to hope any such thing. This is a good deal for the Red Sox even if Pena is only good enough to platoon with Nixon.
Said platoon should give the Red Sox a .900+ OPS right fielder (Nixon's .900-.950 against righties plus Pena's .875-.900 against lefties).
I'd rather have that and no league-average No. 7 starter than an .800-.825 OPS right fielder (if you let Nixon hit lefties or used a lesser platoon partner) and a league-average No. 7 starter.
If Pena also develops into somebody who can be a star right fielder after Nixon leaves, that's just a bonus. A really, really big bonus.
Gotta worry about a 29 year old pitcher whose K rate suddenly plummets. Watching Arroyo pitch last year, he was afraid to throw his fast ball anywhere near the plate when he needed a strike.
And any 24 year old who is built like Pena and hits 19 homers in a little more than 300 at bats is worth the risk.
What kind of league are you in that let that happen?
Talked to my cuz out of the 'Nati and he pointed out the following:
--Pena was jerked in and out of the lineup the last several years
--when he caught fire at the end of 2004 his reward in 2005 was playing second fiddle to a fat Austin kearns until Kearns got so bad the Reds demoted him
--Wily Mo is like a lot of power hitters, he needs to play every day to get his mojo
--his defense was ok in 2004 when he was playing every day. In 2005 he lost interest because he was getting the shaft from the Reds mgt.
I'm betting if the Sox stick him in the lineup regularly the dude will explode on the league.
Pena has MEGA power, a cannon for an arm, and is desperate to get a chance.
Sounds like a package worth chancing.
Later,
H3
The Red Sox are unlikely to play Wily Mo every day, I think. They already have a complete lineup. He'll be able to spot in against all LHP, as well as finding time in LF and DH, as well as playing full-time after Nixon's inevitable injury. But, I think H3 is right that the Sox need to get Wily Mo on a regular schedule with significant playing time such that he does not feel "jerked around."
In order to develop, you have to play. It will be on Francona to get Wily Mo at least 300-400 PA, and to communicate with the kid and keep his playing time on a regular schedule such that he's happy and can continue to develop.
This will be much less of a push-button roster than what Tito had in '04 and '05, and it will be interesting to see how he handles it.
We'll probably never know, at least till 2007. The only place open for AB is RF platoon vs lefties. Unless Nixon suffers a serious injury, which certainly could happen.
I wonder what they were thinking signing Juan Gone. Their DH doesn't really need a platoon partner. Could Manny be on the way out?
Maybe they've lowered their asking price / found an idiot taker.
I have faith that he'll get those at bats. If Papi, Manny, Nixon(!), or Crisp goes down, he'll get a good number of at bats. He'll get the at-bats for Nixon against lefties. Plus he'll pinch hit sometimes.
I have to say, in my head, the Red Sox just got a whole lot better. Mostly because if Nixon goes down, the drop off is nowhere near replacement level. Manny can take 10 games off and the Sox still have a big power bat in the lineup. At most, it's probably just a one win upgrade if everybody were healthy, but it probably makes the downside of an injury much lower. So the EV wins went up by more than 1 win I think.
Does this sound right?
The most fragile player in the world would have a max of 1 PA, at least so I thought. Juan Gone in 2005 passed his maximum before his 1 PA was even finished.
Pena's nothing special, but I'd have to agree. Arroyo was redundant on this team, so if Pena contributes anything he's a plus.
He's a better reserve/platoon OF than Jay Mohr.
WMP makes the Sox a lot better, even if he doesn't improve one iota.
As much as I enjoyed Arroyo, he's pretty easily replaceable on the mound (presumably Wells and Clement stay now, and Paplebon becomes the swing guy.)
Epstein repeated this version today on Boston Nitwit Radio.
(too soon?)
--A good trade for Boston, but... Pena's a terrible defender and K's a ton. He's likely to improve the latter, but he's likely in his prime for fielding. So if he becomes a .280/.330/.550 guy who cannot field, that's not such a good player.
--I think that if there's a trade with the Nats, it's likely going to be a 3-way with NY. That deal makes sense because the Nats need someone who is ready now and the Mets might like Soriano enough to trade Milledge.
--The idea that the Red Sox in some way screwed Arroyo is simply ridiculous. There was NO AGREEMENT ABOUT NOT TRADING HIM. Arroyo himself said this right after the deal was completed. The only thing the Red Sox promised was that there was no deal on the table at the time of the signing. Arroyo's agents even warned him that his contract made him more tradeable, but he signed it anyways. What were the Red Sox supposed to do--refuse to sign Arroyo to a deal because it was too good for them?
That's not going to happen. The Mets don't like Soriano's D at all second. Hell, I don't think the Mets would trade Milledge for Sorano and Pena. If the Mets do trade Milledge, it's going to be for a starter. I actually think there is a good shot that Milledge will be the starting RF by the end of the season.
no.
I think what might happen is that we see Big Papi playing more 1st, Manny DH'ing more, and Pena going into LF. Papi's got to be better at 1st than Manny is out in the OF.
Scrolling down and reading this thread, I was going to say the same thing. I am glad he is gone as we don't need him and his taste in music sux.
Dude, Pena was solid with the leather when he played semi-regularly.
You guys slay me with your total dismissal of context. The guy was jerked around like saltwater taffy. And aren't the Reds the team that trashed their best player (Dunn) because he strikes out too much? Conveniently forgeting the dude is in the lineup every day cranking out homers and getting on base.
Pena was harrassed by the club for his so-called attitude, the fossil in the radio booth was leading the "Anti-Pena" crowd, and his manager was more impressed by Rich Aurilia's ability to not hit and not field then Pena's potential.
I will ante up that if Pena gets a half-*ssed chance in Boston he will fringgin' rake the paint off the Monster.
Any takers??
Later,
H3
Except that Loretta is a better player (and has a far better contract) at this point than broken-down Vidro, thus the Sox almost surely would have no interest at all in this even without sending Pena there.
I mean, how good would the Yankees be if they could just get players like Wily Mo! If only they could have acquired him, they'd never let him go in a stupid trade like the Reds did.
"Yes, I'd like to speak to a _______."
Just from bouncing around the net a bit, this appears to have started on SoSH. I gotta say, I don't like it. The man's name is "Wily Mo". Why would you pass up the opportunity to write "Wily Mo"? It'd be like stubbornly referring to our center fielder only as "C. Crisp."
You may now continue discussing baseball...
I did like watching Arroyo pitch as all his pitches moved and he changed arm angles. Don't get too excited about him though. He is bad against lefties and his K rate declined over the last year, as has been pointed out (about 40 fewer K's in 30 more innings). His is 29 and likely at or past his peak. There is little chance for his development at this stage.
Two.
They were thinking, "Pawtucket could use a two-time AL MVP."
Now THAT's hilarious.
And aren't the Reds the team that trashed their best player (Dunn) because he strikes out too much?
No, they weren't, although that myth seemed to gather steam on this site.
a quick google search shows that wmp originated from microsoft.
Yale could use an international airport.
Is this guy gonna friggin' rake the monstah or what? 'Cuz if not, I want that ge'tar playin' whack johb with the stupid heircut back.
Free Wily?
I am pretty sure it was the announcer Marty B. who constantly tracked Dunn NOT being able to hit a sacrifice fly. He harped and harped about how it was related to Dunn's strikeouts.
Wasn't it Bill James who wrote the sign of a bad organization is them criticizing their best player(s) for what they can't do?
Pena's a kid who could easily bust out all over any league he is in. A team that DOESN'T want that is pretty suspect to me.
But if you're happy that the Reds are ditching potential for a known mediocrity then so be it.
Peace,
H3
Sac-flies have been a Brenneman bugaboo for years and years, long before Adam Dunn. But even when I liked him, I always thought, "let's see you do it!"
C'mon dude. He's been in the booth for a century. He's the company mouthpiece. I seriously doubt what he's preachin' isn't what the suits are thinking or saying behind the scenes.
What I know about the Reds comes from my cuz or links on this site. And I know the relation was driven to distraction by the lovefest for Casey, Randa, and Aurilia while the actual talent like Dunn and Pena got friggin' ripped if their left shoe were untied.
Pena's value was ready to rock in 2005 and the Reds decided that the fat hickster deserved a starting spot.
Cincy had something of market value, messed up the product, and now they have to pawn it off at 50 cents on the dollar.
Very slick.
Later,
H3
They would also tie team Furcal in DUIs over replacement drinker.
Come on. WMP = Wily of Mass Production (or some such)
C. Crisp should really be C+C Out Factory or something.
As a Wily Mo fantasy owner, I am double-plus unpleased. Oh, the power I could have had with Pena starting full-time at GAB. I might have to ignore the fact that I like Dunn and Freel and declare the Reds to be my nemesis for screwing me like this. Take that, you dirty Reds.
I think part of the problem is that--as sometimes happens when evaluating a trade b/t two teams--fans talk up the player that their team has received and talk down the player that their team has given up. That's certainly true in this case, more so from one side than from the other.
The other thing that bothers me could be that some fans view players only as commodities. Arroyo was loyal to the Red Sox organization. That's been covered on this thread already.
Objectively speaking, Boston has gotten the better end of this deal.
Cincy had something of market value, messed up the product, and now they have to pawn it off at <u>50 cents on the dollar</u>.
OnWI: BP used that exact phrase after KW traded Carlos Lee for Scott Podsednik, et al. Then again, Milwaukee objectively won on that trade, too.
Maybe what bothers me most is that Cincy carried that logjam of outfielders for a couple of years when they should have just traded one and let the rest play everyday. And when Pena finally has the chance to pile up 600+ at bats and develop, they trade him into a backup role. I don't think this trade is the best thing for Pena's development, all those who believe he'll pull a "David Ortiz" and miraculously develop in Boston aside.
Query: Does Boston have a history of taking undeveloped hitting talent from other teams and developing it? They did it with Ortiz. They might do it with Stern. Mueller might count. Certain organizations just do these things with different facets of the game. Does Boston improve hitters?
I can't see this being a good trade unless Pena plays everyday. If the BoSox trade either Manny, their RF, or train Pena to play 1B, then I'm behind this 100%. Otherwise, it doesn't make sense--you take a hit for trading a loyal ballplayer and get...what? A platoon partner? A 24 yo backup?
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