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I'm very pleased.
First prediction for 2006: Florida will finish a distant last in the NL East, and the division will NOT repeat it's amazing distinction of having every team finishing at least .500.
Lowell sucks. He could bounce back to decent, but even then he'll still be seriously overpaid.
I'm suspicious that Beckett's health is worse than we might know.
No price tag on that.
Wait until the Marlins get done. Once they've reduced themselves to Cabrera, Willis, and a bunch of kids, the Gnats should be able to outpace them with fair ease. That said, Bowden is capable of sinking DC to serious depths if he chooses.
Washington will be much, much better than the Burnett/Beckettless Marlins -- who will probably be Delgado-less, too. Washington will be better for having subtracted Castilla and replacing him with Zimmerman. They may not win 81 games again, but they'll win more than 70. That'll beat Florida.
Exxxxxxxxcellent
This would be one of those times.
Considering their attendance, I think the Marlins' front office has nothing to worry about.
Dodger fans cry foul on the usurpation of their nickname for the rival San Francisco club.
I think the main reason the Red Sox made this trade is because Beckett is so young. Yeah, they traded away youth, but they got youth back...and on top of that, they got youth that has already succeeded at the big league level. Something Ramirez, and Sanchez haven't done.
I don't see the Red Sox shipping off Lowell so quick like everybody else though. He's only 31. So what if he had a bad year, it happens. He was partially injured.
As a matter of a fact, putting him over at third sounds pretty damn good to me.
Not that this means anything but when I play OOTP, I will always trade away a 20-23 yr old unproven prospect for a 23-27 year old proven youngster. I mean why wouldn't you?
Hey, Fenway Park can only help Lowell right? Let's just be thankful we have the money to pay him.
Yeah, my experience in south Florida was that they're probably more interested in the Cuban leagues.
They drew over 1.8M last year. If you think that can't get worse, compare it to 813,000 as recently as 2002. They've gradually been recovering their fan base, increasing every year since then. If the predicted fire sale goes through, they'll struggle to draw 1M in 2006, and I suspect their local tv ratings will crash as well.
I think there will be a lot to worry about.
Face it, the nickname is now bound to travel east and be sucked up by the imperial capitol. Especially since DC's illustrious GM insists on collecting overpaid no-hit infielders by the dozen, making the term very apropos.
Shoppach if the fish can trade Lo Duca?
Sure. In my league, I swapped a 26-year old very good reliever, the #7, and the #10 pick in the ammy draft for the 24-year old reigning AL MVP shortstop. But he didn't have an injury history...
Well, Ramirez and Sanchez, as Sean said, are two guys who might be great some day, but it seems like Lowell and Beckett represent a lot of return despite their price tags. Unless of course there is something wrong with Beckett, and his revolving door of DL stints (blister? shoulder?) doesn't do much to counter that idea.
Anyone else notice that bit? This sounds a bit better now, as long as the PTBNL isn't Papelbon or something.
Ditto on the OOTP logic.
That is the question.
Considering the Dallas Morning News had indicated the Rangers HAD caved on including Danks or Diamond, you'd *THINK* the PTBNL would be someone fairly well regarded, to top that (since Blalock is a proven MLB player). Who knows, though, ATM?
The updated ESPN article is backtracking a bit, saying it could still fall apart.
Why don't they just sign Mueller instead? (Turf on the knees, I guess, but still)
New Rangers general manager Jon Daniels said he received a call Monday afternoon from Marlins GM Larry Beinfest, who told him "the Marlins are going to go in another direction with their trade."
Officials of two other major league teams, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the Boston Red Sox were deep in discussions to acquire Beckett and third baseman Mike Lowell from the Marlins for top shortstop prospect Hanley Ramirez and one or two other prospects.
we'll give you lowell for free. we'll even throw in mike myers.
Not a bad thought. He's moving to the right park to do it. But let's not get ahead of ourselves.
Darren, the young guys could be good, but these guys are good. I really think Mike Lowell is Pat Burrell in 2003.
Maybe he's Paul Konerko 2002! Or then again, maybe he's Jeff Cirillo 2002, or any number of players who crapped out in their 30s, never to be good again.
Isn't Sanchez more highly regarded than either Danks or Diamond? His stats and his stuff are better. He was the best pitching prospect in the Sox system.
FWIW, I have rarely seen a player with a pretty good (or better) record look so inept at the plate as Mike Lowell did last season. Of the names that have been bandied about here, Cirillo seems scarily apt.
It could be someone drafted in 2005!
Perhaps, but Blalock > Ramirez, since he's a proven MLB player, former All-Star, blah blah vs. a AA shortshop whose numbers have been inconsistent.
If they're haggling about dollars, as the ESPN article is indicating ATM, the PTBNL could be a deal where the more money the Fish are willing to swallow on Lowell's deal, the better the player they recieve.
" A rival A.L. East G.M. said the Red Sox now have an upper hand on the Yankees. Because this G.M. exists. I'm seriously not making him up. Like the guy who laughed when asked about the possibility of acquiring Tom Gordon back in April. Doug Glanville secretly writes my columns. I suck."
And really, that weak swooning by Yankee fan McNally in the intro really lets me down. Let's see Josh Beckett's mind not wonder during a full season, or his body stay in tact, before he's king of the world over here.
Excellent trade though, all and all. I think Sanchez turns out better than Hanley on the Marlin side. Guess they're shooting for the glory days of 95 people for a May game against the Brew Crew.
I'm not as high on Beckett as a lot here, so I'm a bit queasy about this trade. If you think Beckett will put up ~200 innings of ~120 or better ERA+ in fenway the next two years, though, then it's a good trade.
I don't believe so. The PTBNL has to be resolved in a fixed time (6 weeks, iirc) and 2005 draftees cannot be traded until 1 year after they sign.
Mike Lowell was 31 last year, Burrell was 26 when he had his off-year.
I'm not saying he can't come back, but Lowell strikes me a lot more as Garret Anderson v.2004 than Pat Burrell v.2005.
I guess I would expect him to bounce back a little bit, but his dropoff in '05 was so complete that you have to think a lot of it's for real.
Followed by talks of contraction.
Redman or Pierre?
In response 2 Zen, I wasn't laughing at their attendance, just pointing out what an up and down franchise they are. Turbulent times dude.
Lowell had one good month- July. The rest of the year he stunk.
Bad back or something temporary?
Cirillo always puzzled me. I thought he was going to be a star. I guess he's the positional Steve Blass or something
Roids.
My take is the dropoff was so dramatic, there had to be some underlying reason not related to declining skills, which tend to happen gradually. Hidden injury is the one that usually springs to mind first.
Roids.
You could argue Cirillo was a star once, since he put up a couple nice years with the Brewers that few noticed nationally.
He's always had a rep for being wound super-tight and a bit of a head case, which tended to work against him when a situation wasn't going his way or he didn't feel comfortable.
It's probably not a coincidence that upon returning to Milwaukee, he went from a malcontent to Mr. Team Player, and became a usable player again (.281/.373/.400 off the bench)
(FWIW, Forbes magazine recent issue had about as even-handed an analysis of the Epstein-Bosox imbroglio. I encourage anyone not completely burned out on the topic to give it a look.)
The Red Sox are a billion dollar organization. Business continues. Successful businesses have capable people in place to continue implementing the tactical plan while ownership seeks the next strategist.
Happens every day.
As to the proposed trade itself, I think it's fascinating. Mike Lowell HAD to have been suffering from a case of the Gaettis where one's ability to hit just vanishes only to mysteriously return. As to Beckett, he would drive a fan to distraction. All that talent and can't stay on the mound consistently. Never made 30 starts. Never pitched 200 innings. Maybe this is a good thing as he doesn't have the wear on his arm. Or maybe if he were your girlfriend you would have exhausted the cold shower routine and given an ultimatum of put out or get out.
The Red Sox kids? Cripes, I live in nowhere WI and I'M TIRED of reading about Hanley Ramirez. Let's get this career going already. Maybe the kids are something and maybe they ain't.
Seems fair enough to me. Risk is spread out and both have a chance to experience riches beyond the dreams of avarice.
I see lots of HOPE in this trade. Makes it fun.
Florida fans have two World Series wins under their belt. They can manage........
Even if this is the case, "hidden injury" actually frightens me away moreso than admitted, dealt-with injury.
He's definitely a very intriguing player going into next season.
The last five years, since age 27, he's rolled out OPS+s of 106, 116, 132, 127, 77. And he played in 150 games and got 500 ABs. Something's not right. He still hit 36 doubles, though. All very strange.
Good luck to Beckett who's been a favorite player of mine lo these many years.
In Lowell's case, further health problems always pops in my head before I think of 'steriods'.
If the Sox get 2005 Beckett and 2004 Lowell again, its actually probably a decline all around, assuming Lowell plugs in at one of the corners, but if Lowell returns to league average form he would match Millar making it a draw on talent there, a big upgrade in the pitching and a slight minus on the payroll
I don't believe this is true if the trade is between leagues as this one is.
Remember the Michael Barrett trades from Montreal to Oakland to Chicago in 48 hours and Damian Miller was the PTBNL the A's received.
So if the Sox don't pay someone else to take a chance on him, maybe they're thinkin' they've got someone to platoon at 1B or give Euclis or Big Papi the occasional day off, and his ridiculous salary is the price they pay for having Beckett around. Or he comes back and makes someone (?) look smart.
When they signed Renteria, I told you Hanley was trade bait. You called me a troll for it.
HAHA. Told you so. Enjoy Beckett.
Even though Lowell was useless with the stick last year, isn't he still a top-drawer 3B? That has to make him more than just a spare part.
Remember the Michael Barrett trades from Montreal to Oakland to Chicago in 48 hours and Damian Miller was the PTBNL the A's received.
I know you used to be able to do PTBNL's between leagues if a player had never played in the league. I thought they had nixed that with interleague play, though. If not, it's an odd vestigial remnant to hold onto.
No I didn't. I've always thought of him as trade bait myself.
You have a link to this? Miller shouldn't have been moveable as a PTBNL in either league after his first day of major league service in 1998, even if players who hadn't played in the NL but had played in the AL could be traded from an AL team to an NL team as a ptbnl (and vice versa).
Ramirez .256/.307/.363
Lowell .276/.349/.464
Beckett 168 IP 4.00 ERA 143-57 K-W
Sanchez 4.57 ERA
All taking account of their new parks and leagues.
Let's say he doesn't improve, but does pitch more innings. He becomes Bartolo Colon. Not a legit Cy Young guy (though a legit candidate), but a guy that will help you a great deal.
The Barrett deals were done in the '03/'04 offseason so the advent of interleague play hasn't changed the rule. It might have been changed since then, however. I agree that it's a strange holdover.
In the case of the Barrett trade, Damian Miller was a PTBNL because his inclusion was contingent on Barrett signing with the team and not going to arb. It's an interesting thought that Shoppach would be included if LoDuca can be moved. I wonder if LA would take him back to appease the fans :)
I know it wasn't you, Kevin. I forget who it was. Doesn't matter now.
Besides, you and I both like the other Red Sox MI better.
I didn't spend much time looking but here is something
It talks about Barrett being acquired for a PTBNL.
And this shows the completed deal with Damian Miller if you scroll down to the transactions.
He is a certified Yankee killer, plus a 4.00 ERA with that lineup should win 16-18 games if he's ever healthy.
Pedroia and who? Lowrie?
In the case of the Barrett trade, Damian Miller was a PTBNL because his inclusion was contingent on Barrett signing with the team and not going to arb.
Bizarre. I thought that was one of the reasons that MLB players couldn't be PTBNL's, but apparently they can. Sure there wasn't a "floating" ptbnl in there that to traded from chicago to oakland and then from oakland to chicago for Miller after Barrett signed?
Tell me about. I was even watching more cricket than usual.
One thing that's odd here is that both Beckett and Lowell are clearly "high-variance" players. They could be great, or they could be injured or suck. If you go into the season with too many such players and you expect to be among the elite, you run a risk that you'll be extremely disappointing. This is one of the nice things about a player like Manny, who, apart from his glove, is very dependably excellent in the heart of your lineup. If they deal him, though...
I forgot he was a card carrying member of the Yankee Killers. This trade is a steal for the Sox.
I seem to remember hearing a rumor over the summer that the drugs Lowell takes because of his cancer contain a banned steroid, and that a waiver request to continue to take them was denied.
Don't take the innings seriously. Its just a weighted average of the last 3 years.
I have an idea on projecting ERA (not saying I'm right, but there is a method here), but I have no clue whatsoever on playing time.
* Hanley was the key to the deal. Nothing Texas had interested them as much
* The PTBNL is not on the 40-man. (I'm hoping that those above are right that it can't be an 05 draftee.
* Twins are interested in Lowell, would give up The Twins are expected to offer Kyle Lohse, J.C. Romero and/or Scott Baker for Lowell, if some of Lowell's salary is paid. (from Twincities.com)
Take it FWIW.
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