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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Monday, December 22, 2008
The Los Angeles Angels withdrew their eight-year offer for free-agent first baseman Mark Teixeira on Sunday, a baseball source said.
The Angels’ departure from the Teixeira sweepstakes leaves the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Washington Nationals and Baltimore Orioles as the four teams still in the mix for the premier position player in this winter’s free-agent market.
As the Red Sox have said they won’t be a factor, the Yankees have said they’re not pursuing him… leave two really bad teams that are at least close to home.
Gotta say, this can’t exactly be playing out the way Teixeira and Boras had hoped.
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1. Gamingboy Posted: December 22, 2008 at 04:13 AM (#3035561)boras = anthrax...yep, that seems about right.
After the Furcal shenanigans, I reckon some of the GMs are just bored of the whole agent spin thing.
And the Yankees are believed to have made an offer, and then pulled it. It sounds like they made an offer below Boston's existing offer, to see if the honor of wearing pin stripes would sway him from the extra millions.
Well, you're buying a $160 M ticket to a lottery where the prize averages about $120 M. You're probably better off in the Publishers' Clearing House sweepstakes.
Well of course it's not. They were hoping for global thermonuclear war. But if Boras really is about every last dollar, and Teixeira really is completely on board with the Boras approach, and the quintessential union man to boot, then what's so horrible about taking the Nats' offer if they throw in an early opt-out?
So Mark Teixeira is basically finding out what K-Rod found out (albeit at a much different market level): the money you thought was there . . . ain't. What do you do now?
Scrimp. Clip coupons. Eat out less. And try and get by on $20 million per year for most of the next decade. My heart goes out.
But, seriously, I wonder if the Sox have a particular opinion of a guy, who established a typical OBP in the .370's at ages 24-26 and then goes to .400 and over at age 27 and 28?
Not to mention Teixeira's career OPS+ is 134 and he's not likely to average 150 during those 8 years.
Still not the best summing up of Boras, though. In Jerry Crasnick's License to Deal, there is this anecdote (I'm paraphrasing here):
In the mid-90s a columnist called Boras "Darth Vader in a Armani suit". Boras was angered at this statement: "I don't own any Armani suits." So, yes, Boras admits he is Darth Vader.
Was? When did Ramirez and Dunn sign? Who landed them?
And in today's cricket test in Bangalore....
Probably not, but I'd certainly take the "over" on 134. I think it's clear he's now established a current ability level well above his overall career average. Give him his due; he's an outstanding hitter, and very valuable on a number of levels (defense is good; switch-hitter; consistent). But is that package worth a fifth of a billion dollars over eight years, which is what Boras wants?
Nope.
Bwaa..haa..haa. Yep, their success in the 21st century has been a real bargaining chip. They only landed CC because they threw heaps more cash and years at thim than anyone else. Honor, my arse.
Most of the existing posts are spot on. 8/160+ is serious change and I reckon Boras thought maybe he try to spin 8/200 out of it and has now found out that it isn't happening. I reckon the Nats have the highest bid and Tex is telling Boras, "that's nice but I want to play for a decent squad, see if you can squeeze the Sox for more cash."
Of course Theo and J. Henry said, "f*ck you, our offer is solid, take it or leave it."
Was the post a bit much with the paraphrasing?
I thought it was in Chandigarh
Would you rather spend $20 million on him or AJ Burnett and a good middle reliever?
I thought it was in Chandigarh
And I came here because the start there had been delayed by fog! So...how much Kevin Peterson go for in the player auction? $3 mil?
Ramon Calderon will single-handedly offset the effect of the crisis, if you believe the Spanish tabloids.
Should have been, and in yesterday's test in Perth....South Africa finally beat Australia after 14 tries....NOOO screams the aussie.
Uhh...I believe that was John Henry.
I wouldn't sign Dunn for half that. He doesn't project as an elite hitter and he has absolutely no defensive value anywhere. I don't think I'd give him any more than 2 years $20M and only then as a DH only.
Can I have what's behind door number three, Monty? Lowe for half as long, and a third as much money.
Wouldn't that be hilarious?
That was ######## -- and this coming from someone who was rooting for LFC -- although, oddly enough, I thought Arsenal actually had the better of the chances once Adebayor got the red card. I know it's a tougher road without Torres (on top of playing at the Emirates), but Liverpool seemed pretty content with the tie, which I found a bit disappointing.
Oh, and watching Samir Nasri is a ####### joy. If they go out and get Arshavin, that team will be tough to root against.
I haven't watched the game, I just read the description as "high leg tackle", he hit the player above the ball. Try looking at it this way: if it was just a fist yellow card, would you be furious, or would you think "maybe a bit harsh, but elements for a card were there"? I choosing between giving red for marginal second yellow, or not giving yellow card for a start that normally would warrant one, because referee knows the player already has one, I'd always choose the first option (although, if I were a referee, matches would routinely end because of too few men on the field and would have 5+ penalty shots).
I thought last winter tat Yankees and Sox played the same game - they didn't want to pay too much and they didn't want to allow the other one to get Santana, so they waited until someone else placed an offer.
Ha, reading through the thread I was thinking the same thing.
As for the baseball stuff, I'm on board with the idea that if AJ Burnett is an 18 million dollar pitcher then Mark Teixeira is surely a 20 million dollar hitter.
Other than my little editorial dig at the Yankees, the NYTimes reported that they will not go over $160M/8 yrs and Olney reported that they did in fact make an offer, but pulled it. From Espn Insider:
I don't beleive anything Heyman says, even if Boras happens to be drinking a glass of water at the same time.
Yes, and "if" Rabbit Maranville is a Hall of Fame baseball player, then Davey Lopes is surely deserving of induction, too.
Teams that are actually out of the bidding simply leave the bidding. The willingness of sports reporters to play stenographer to interested parties feeding them misleading and false information is pathetic.
Sure, but a lot of people here thought those projections were kind of crazy, and said so.
I don't understand the "should" part. Based on what? Are salary projections influenced by the extreme outlier A-Rod/Manny contracts that haven't been topped in 8 years? I understand that arb/pre-arb deals make across the board comparisons difficult to make, but Tex at 8/160m would make him, what, the 4th highest-paid player in baseball? Maybe 5th? I think that's why some people are balking at.
Based on the FA market that's been established over the last few years. In the abstract it might seem crazy that Soriano and Lee and Ichiro and Helton and Jeter are making what they are, but that's the market. It makes no sense to say that all of those players are overpaid. And how is Manny's contract an outlier?
I understand that arb/pre-arb deals make across the board comparisons difficult to make, but Tex at 8/160m would make him, what, the 4th highest-paid player in baseball? Maybe 5th? I think that's why some people are balking at.
I think MCA has made this point before, but it's worth repeating: Very few players like Teixeira -- an elite or near elite player under 30 -- ever hit FA, so they're able to command a lot of money. It doesn't make sense to say that he doesn't deserve $20M/year because he isn't nearly as good as players who haven't been in that situation, like Pujols. If Pujols were a FA he'd be asking for $25-30M/year.
Actually, I think this offseason's numbers are below projections, except for the Yankees, who are living in and setting their own little independent market for the players they happen to sign to what are proving to be inflated contracts for this particular offseason. Every other team in baseball at least seems to be making offers that reflect a market correction based on the economy. To say that Teixeira is a $20M/year player because Burnett was an $18M a year pitcher to the Yankees is to use them as a baseline, when they (not Burnett) are the outlier.
Even assuming that the Yankees overpaid for Burnett because they can, would Teixeira at $20m/year be overpaid compared to all of the other big contracts that have been handed out over the last few years?
Yes. I think Beltran is an excellent comparator, and given defensive value and age at the time of the contracts, Beltran was a better player and value than Teixeira. He got around 7/$119. Build in some inflation (but then discount some of that for this year's contraction), and you don't get $20M a year for Tex. Yet, it appears that he has received offers at or near that level . . . but Boras wants more.
The real point to keep in mind, as I see it, is that because of the correction, there are other values out there to be acquired with money like that -- values it seems to me are worth at least as much to a team as Mark Teixeira, and which don't involve the same long-term commitment. Let's say you could get Lowe for four years, $60M. You could still hand out another $5M/year, four year deal to a solid reserve player and get good value for your $20M/year. And you would have made half the total commitment of dollars ($80M to the two players combined) that Boras and Teixeira are turning up their noses at. At some point, you have to ask: is a 150 OPS+ first baseman worth THAT much off your payroll? I say no.
And the number of years doesn't seem like a big deal. If Tex signs an 8 year deal, the team will have him from ages 28-35. He has no injury history, and he's pretty consistent. So I don't see a lot of risk in a long term deal -- he seems like the kind of player who will put up very good (even if not spectacular) numbers year in and year out.
My deluded fanboy hope is that Boston and the Yankees are merely bidding to either block the other or drive the price sky-high for the other- they then simultaneously realize they are playing eachother and dropout- and Tex falls to the Mets (what about the Cat you ask? who cares after 2009)
Deluded? But then again when someone else posited such a scenario last year, I thought they were nuts, but it HAPPENED!
Year to year increase in MLB average salary:
2006 9%
2007 4.65%
2008 3.65%
Isn't Burnett a $16.5 M pitcher?
Well yeah, if you're one of those people who wants to use "accurate" figures so that your arguments "make sense." If you're comfortable just making up numbers, then my $18 M is right though (oops, I had 5/90 in my head for some reason, I stand by the point though).
Y'all are assuming that a slow market is the same thing as a depressed market.
Except (a) Beltran is a better player than Tex, (b) there is a market correction going on in 2008 (for everyone other than the Yankees, it seems), and (c) Boras & Tex believe he is worth MORE than $20M a year, having (reportedly) rejected 8/$160M. So if I'm underestimating his value vis-a-vis recent comparators like Lee, Soriano, and Hunter (which I will grant that I am, but those were dumb ass contracts, too, significantly dumber than Teixeira would be at 8/$160M), then it's equally true that Boras is overestimating his value at 8/$195M.
If Rafael Furcal is a $10M a year player, then Mark Teixeira is a $20M a year player. If Raul Ibanez is a $10M a year player, then Teixeira is a $35M a year player.
I don't think that follows at all. Teams can easily have "medium" money to play with but not top-of-the-market money to spend, especially if the economy has them nervous about franchise-defining long-term commitments. A $30M investment in Rafael Furcal is trivial. A $200M investment in eight years of Mark Teixeira (what Boras is seeking) is not.
Teixeira will get his money, though. Even if only one team is in the bidding at the end, they'll overbid for Teixeira. It's just the way it is.
Maybe if you wanted to get Teixeira on a mere three-year contract that would be true.
Given the economy and all, it's hard to call anything a "correction".
The economy is itself undergoing a correction. Bubble followed by crash. The bubble inflated MLB's profits and payrolls too. So...it's still uncertain.
Don't forget Ryan Demptster. I agree, I haven't seen a depressed market yet. Closers aren't getting what they thought they would, but they're not getting chicken scratch, either. Wood still got his 10MM a year and Fuentes will probably match that. K-Rod didn't get what he wanted, but he's was asking for an outrageous contract to begin with. There's no use using his fantasy contract as an actual, real life baseline. Guys are getting paid. Burrell and Dunn and Abreu are going to get screwed because there are so many comparable players to them in the market. It's a bad year to be a slugging but flawed corner outfielder this year. Bradley, Ramirez, Ibanez, Burrell, Dunn, Abreu. That's an awful lot of supply so I wouldn't use their inability to score a quick, giant contract as evidence of a depressed market.
Minor point, perhaps, but I don't think they've rejected anything. I'd imagine it's always, "We'll get back to you."
That is a very difficult concept for me to grasp. The "market" is set by all of the factors that drive teams and players to arrive at a price. How you separate those factors into "external" and "internal" is pretty artificial. But if you want to say that it is the general economy that is impacting teams' expectations about revenues, and also almost certainly affecting some owners' own personal financial situations, and then call that "external," fine. The point is, it has an impact on the size of offers, particularly at the high end, for any player whom the Yankees don't go bat-#### crazy for.
I'm perfectly happy to grant that the market, taken as a whole, values Mark Teixeira somewhat more highly than I do, at around $20M/year. "Correction" and all. What astonishes me is that he and Boras think there's more to be collected out there, despite the fact that teams certainly appear to be dropping like flies every time they come around demanding more than the apparent market ceiling. It sure looks to me like every team is just calling their bluff.
In short, the owners always want you to think of it as a "correction" because that means it was due to the greedy players being paid too much. You don't want to use owner-friendly lingo do you? :-)
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