His top ten BB-Ref comps through age 26:

Pete Schourek (970)
Pat Hentgen (967)
Noah Lowry (966)
Billy Loes (962)
Wade Miller (961)
Joe Blanton (961)
John Lackey (960)
Allan Anderson (957)
Odalis Perez (956)
Jerry Augustine (956)

This guy is not worth 5/$55m. Harrison had two arb-eligible years left. It makes no sense whatsoever to extend this guy.

Guy's coming off 2 years of 130 or better ERA+. His FIP wasn't as good, but he's still a solid middle of the rotation pitcher.

###### Teixeira trade. And Matt Harrison's supposedly bum shoulder was why the Braves had to throw in Neftali Feliz into the trade.

Oh well, good for home. He was rumoured to be a Glavine clone, and he seems to be living up to it.

Wonder how much the lefty Ring Larnder wrote about here - http://www.nytimes.com/2000/07/18/arts/critic-s-notebook-ring-lardner-understood-baseball-and-life-too.html - would get today

This guy is not worth 5/$55m

I'd agree, except that's what halfway-decent starting pitchers are making nowadays, and as #2 notes, Harrison has certainly established himself as at least halfway decent. I don't know if he can be a perennial All-Star. His chances of regressing are better than those of his improving. But after increasing his workload quite a bit in 2011, he increased it more while getting better in 2012. He pitched very creditably down the stretch when all about him were losing their heads (if not blaming it on him). It's just expensive to put together a starting rotation these days.

Guy's coming off 2 years of 130 or better ERA+. His FIP wasn't as good, but he's still a solid middle of the rotation pitcher.

Yep. He's not a dominant TORP kind of guy, who racks up the Ks and has untouchable stuff, but then he's not getting paid like one either. I like this deal for the Rangers; Harrison's young (27 in 2013) and has been very good over the past two years/400 IP. He was almost certainly going to get ~$6M in arbitration for 2013, and that would have only gone up for 2014 assuming he was anywhere close to his recent performance.

If Texas waits a year and Harrison turns in another good season, he'd be looking for a 5/90+ deal. Harrison has more bWAR over the past 2 years than Zach Greinke has over the past 3.

A set of comparable pitchers 2011-2012:

399 IP, 134 ERA+ - Matt Harrison (9.7 WAR)
431 IP, 134 ERA+ - Cole Hamels (10.4 WAR)
437 IP, 134 ERA+ - CC Sabathia (10.3 WAR)
401 IP, 133 ERA+ - Gio Gonzalez (8.4 WAR)
378 IP, 130 ERA+ - Doug Fister (8.2 WAR)

Obviously, Hamels and Sabathia have more to their careers than Harrison. Harrison's run prevention numbers have been legitimately excellent for two years. If this is his true level, 5/55 is a bargain.

The case against Harrison is partly FIP. Harrison is still is very good company by FIP- (86), but not quite as good:

399 IP, 86 FIP- - Matt Harrison
413 IP, 83 FIP- - Madison Bumgarner
401 IP, 83 FIP- - Gio Gonzalez
373 IP, 85 FIP- - Johnny Cueto
357 IP, 87 FIP- - Jordan Zimmermann
392 IP, 87 FIP- - Anibal Sanchez
425 IP, 88 FIP- - CJ Wilson
430 IP, 88 FIP- - Ian Kennedy

That's still a pretty impressive group. So, really, the big issue with Harrison is how much heavily you weight his mostly unimpressive numbers (minors and majors) before age 25. I like this contract for Harrison insofar as I can make the claim that he took a qualitative leap in 2011 and shouldn't be judged by his numbers from 2010 and earlier.

I think I fall on the bargain side... he pitches in a tough pitchers park, doesn't walk people, and generally seems pretty good at keeping the ball in the park.

I like this contract for Harrison insofar as I can make the claim that he took a qualitative leap in 2011 and shouldn't be judged by his numbers from 2010 and earlier.

Perhaps his numbers from 2010 and earlier should be downweighted, but the weight of those numbers should not be zero.

Does Ryan act too quickly in rewarding pitchers as a posed to hitters?

Bargain. $13M is what Edwin Jackson makes now and it is going to be what any competent SP makes in 2018. Assuming only 5% inflation it's $10M in today's dollars. Injured starting pitchers are currently making $5M.

Once you've taken into account that Texas is buying out two arbitration years, the deal's on par with what Edwin Jackson got (4/$52M), and Jackson's a pretty fair comp - a solid mid-rotation guy who will reliably eat innings. I'm not sure Texas got a huge bargain, but there's a lot to be said for stability in the rotation. I like the deal.

EDIT: Coke to DL for the Edwin Jackson comp.

I'd much rather have Harrison than Edwin Jackson for the same money.

I would normally say that a five year deal for a pitcher is too long. In this case the price is such that there is a fairly good chance that Texas gets a full return on this in 3.5 or 4 years, so put me down in the "good deal" column.

Does Ryan act too quickly in rewarding pitchers as a posed to hitters?

I don't think so... they gave Kinsler a long term deal after 2011, signed Beltre as a FA, and probably overpaid Nelson Cruz, although on a relatively short term deal. They reportedly made an offer to Napoli, but the BoSox beat them on years. The Hamilton deal looks like an overpay to me, and I'm glad they didn't try to top it.

I think it's more a case of Harrison having been really good the past couple years, and knowing that if they don't strike now, he'd be super expensive after 2013 assuming his performance stayed solid.

Wonder how much the lefty Ring Larnder wrote about here - http://www.nytimes.com/2000/07/18/arts/critic-s-notebook-ring-lardner-understood-baseball-and-life-too.html - would get today

I believe Jack Keefe has mentioned he gets the major league veteran's minimum.

You can not saddle for less than the minmunum. I have expalined this before like my agent J.A. Pryzbylewski expalined it to me. What I get from the Yankees now after Fla. sold me in their Fire Sale is 3.6 million smackers over the next nine years. That is MILLIONS OF DoLLARS Al. Now here is Matt Hairston Jr. getting 55 Million. Yes I know that is more. But I get my money for NINE MORE YEARS Al. How many people can say they will be Yankees in the year twenty whatever that may be Al. Not Derrick Jeter Al. Not a Rod. Not Itchy Row. I miss Ozzie Guillen and AJ some times but heres to you New York New York.

how did i miss keefe going to the yanks?

I got traited at the Dead Line for a Player to Be Named Much Later. Mister Cash Man told them no hurry, if I dont work out may be they can even trade me back for my self.