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1. Robert S. Posted: February 26, 2008 at 06:48 PM (#2700254)Is O-Dawg's glove still good? I wouldn't want to sign him for four years, but if you guys don't have a replacement lined up and you can get him for Phillips or slightly more money, it's probably one of the best options out there, unless you're going to make a run at Brian Roberts, which is also risky.
Hudson's "baseball age" was 29 last year. He turned 30 in December and thats his baseball age for 2008. So he will be 31,32,33,34 for the duration of a 4 year deal from 2009-2012. There is no way the D backs would sign him for longer than that. So I would re run that report to show ages 31-34, instead of 31-35.
My overall guesses are this:
Hudson and his agent's starting point was to ask for 5 years, 60 million.
The D backs were probably offering 3 years, 30 million, same as they gave to Byrnes.
The D Backs might be able to split the difference on the years, and offer the 4th year, but I seriously doubt they would split the difference on the money and guarantee 45. I would think their upper limit on guaranteed dollars is somewhere around 36-40. If it takes more than 40, they'll pass, I'm pretty sure.
So to put a finer point on the question, would you give Hudson a 4 yr 40 million contract?
So if I read this right, he 1) gets injured every September 2) he continually set career highs in several offensive categories. I wanted to scoff at the writing, but I did some research and swallowed my scoff.
ODog has played more than 142 games once, so I guess he gets nicked most years
His BA has gone up every year since he's been a regular -- a whopping 26 points over 5 years but it matches the criteria
For counting stats, I boosted his numbers by 1/7, assuming he missed about 1/8 of the schedule
He was on a pace for record # of 3B (10 vs. 9)
RBI: 72-67 (would have been 5th straight year of career high)
SB: 11-9 (set career highs 4 of 5 years)
BB: 77-61 (career high 2 years in a row)
OBP: .376 - .354 (ditto)
OPS+: 106 - 102 (ditto)
So what the writer said made sense, sort of. I forgot how nice of a year O-Dog had in 2007. Proclaim his team as the team to beat and boost the offense a bit and he could be MVP.
No, and I don't think he would get that in the open market. Does any 2nd baseman make $10MM other than Utley?
As a point of reference, Castillo just signed a 4 year deal for $25MM.
UZR per 150 over the years:
2003: +9
2004: +8
2005: +21
2006: +5
2007: +28 (through June).
Nats have a glut of mediocre middle infielders, and I don't see them making a splash when they have other needs.
Giants : pass.
Dodgers : Hu / Young should be up and running
Cards might bite, they like vets.
Cubs will bite if Hendry is around.
Rockies if their prospect doesn't work out.
In the AL,
Rays and Twins.
White Sox are the Giants of the AL. And that is not meant to be complimentary!
2003: +9
2004: +8
2005: +21
2006: +5
2007: +28 (through June).
Yeah, I'd sign him to a four year, 40 million dollar contract.
As a point of reference, Castillo just signed a 4 year deal for $25MM.
You might be right, but I am also pretty certain that Hudson's perceived market value is higher than Castillo's.
Also, I think you need to look at Utley's contract in the context of what he got for the FREE AGENCY years. He wouldn't have been a free agent until 2010. For the 4 years starting in 2010, Utley is getting 15 million per year. If he is worth 15 million, surely Hudson and his agent will try to make a case that Hudson is worth 2/3 of what Utley is getting. I know people think WARP is crap because they don't like the defense side of things...but just for arguments sake, here is the WARP comparison
yr----Utley----Hudson
07----9.8------7.3
06----7.7------7.2
05----7.6------5.5
Utley is only 1 year younger than Hudson. If he is worth 15 million through his FA years, then Hudson is worth 10 million....or at least so the argument goes.
Ellis has a career 100 OPS+, Hudson 97. Neither has a skewed OPS: Ellis 340 OBP, Hudson 343 OBP.
Both appear to be very good, or better, defensive 2Bs.
I think the gap is a lot bigger than that.
PECOTA projected MORP
Utley from 2010-2013: $50.8MM ($12.7MM/yr)
Hudson from 2009-2012: $24.7MM ($6.2MM/yr)
If Hudson really gets 4/$40MM next year, I'd rather sign Mark Ellis for a lot less.
McLemore took a lot of walks from ages 31-35, but of course had no pop. Hudson has shown an ability to draw ever increasing walks the last few years. I like the Mueller comp plenty. He put up some excellent offensive seasons from age 32-34. Oester not so much
His PA's are projected to gradually decline from 570 in 2008 to 409 in 2012.
His EQA is projected to be in a range .257-.262, with surprisingly the .262 coming in 2012.
Of course his defense declines a little each year, but doesn't turn negative until 2012.
I realize projections that far out are pretty meaningless.
Never happen.
Nats have a glut of mediocre middle infielders, and I don't see them making a splash when they have other needs.
Giants : pass.
Dodgers : Hu / Young should be up and running
Cards might bite, they like vets.
Cubs will bite if Hendry is around.
Rockies if their prospect doesn't work out.
In the AL,
Rays and Twins.
White Sox are the Giants of the AL. And that is not meant to be complimentary!
What about the Brew Crew when Weeks finally moves to the outfield?
Me too. If it wouldn't have involved Omar trading with Byrnes, I wanted him long-term way more than Castillo, who seems about one bad turn at first away from being totally worthless. If you put Hudson and Reyes on the same team though, there'd never be a moment of silence...
If AZ can hang onto him they should. He's a good player and deserves a nice payday. Can we call the Jays-D-Backs deal a win-win in light of Hill's development and Glaus being fairly healthy?
But no, I wouldn't give him 4/40 because 2B tend not to age well. I'm not sure I'd give him 3/30. And if the DBacks are out of it, I'd see what I could get at the trading deadline.
Note: ML service: 3.022, so "FA years" are 2011 and 2012
Brandon Phillips 2b
4 years/$27M (2008-11), plus 2012 club option
* re-signed 2/15/08 (avoided arbitration, $4.2M-$2.7M)
* $0.75M signing bonus
* 08:$2.75M, 09:$4.75M, 10:$6.75M, 11:$11M, 12:$12M club option ($1M buyout)
* escalators based on awards may bring total package to $43.25M
* if traded, 2012 club option becomes mutual option
This is a great example of why WARP is crap. BP has Utley as 10 runs below average with the glove over the past three years. Every other system has Utley as one of the best defenders in baseball.
Mark Ellis is a much better comparison, as they're similar with both the glove and the stick. PECOTA projects Ellis for a .273 EqA, compared to .260 for Hudson.
Here are their UZR/150:
Year Hudson Ellis2003: +9 +22
2004: +8 XXX
2005: +21 +23
2006: +5 +9
2007: +28 +32 (through June)
They're close, but I'd take Ellis.
I don't know if Ellis will be available. The A's know how good he is and I bet they resign him before the year's out if nobody blows them away with a trade offer.
I figured that the A's would rather take the draft picks. Another good year and Ellis is a type-A free agent.
Voros, the Dbacks shipped out Richar because they didn't like his defense, and didn't think he would hit better than Callaspo, for example. And then Callaspo made himself a persona non grata by beating his wife, and the Dbacks actually really care about that stuff. Plus, the Royals offered a really nice player in Buckner for Callaspo.
I think the Dbacks will wait and see what EBone and CBurke do this winter. From reading the tea leaves, the FO seems higher on EBone than on CBurke... but one of the reasons Callaspo was traded was the pending arrival of Burke from Houston. Whether Burke can outplay EBone for the starting job next year remains to be seen. I'm skeptical.
I really like O-Dawg, but I don't see him remaining in AZ past this year. He's going to cost too much, he won't settle for a discounted deal, and the Dbacks will get 2 draft picks in the 2009 draft. As great as he's been, the Dbacks have to allocate their money differently, and they can put up with EBone's offense at 2b given their projected roster.
I'm sure he does and I bet he's frustrated as hell by how under the radar Ellis is. No gold gloves, no all star teams, no national publicity at all. He's like the invisible man. It gives me hope the A's can sign him again. They have the money and he's not blocking anybody. I'd prefer they keep him around.
I agree. Not because he's heads and tails better than Ellis, but the perception is he's much better. Ellis is likely to be a pretty good bargain for someone.
It's all because of the Arizona media hype.
/Rush Limbaugh
Me too. I don't think either one gets more than 4 years/ 32 million. Second baseman is the lowest paid position on the diamond.
It's pretty cool that he was the least acclaimed player in a 3 team, 7 player blockbuster trade, yet he's argably had the best post-trade career of anyone involved: Damon, Grieve, Roberto Hernandez, Angel Berroa, Cory Lidle, AJ Hinch. Damon's the only one with a case.
But he's got a career 0.694 OPS in the minors with his lone big offensive year coming in Lancaster. He looks to have very little power.
His glove is almost certainly going to have to carry his stick (at least in the reasonably near future), the big question is how much will it need to?
If you are getting them for a middle reliever or a fringey kind of player that is one thing, but I don't see how they should influence the discussion for a solid starting-caliber player
But he's got a career 0.694 OPS in the minors with his lone big offensive year coming in Lancaster. He looks to have very little power.
His glove is almost certainly going to have to carry his stick (at least in the reasonably near future), the big question is how much will it need to?
I'm with you Voros. I think there are serious questions about whether Bonafacio will even hit enough to be utility guy let alone a starter. Strikes out a lot. Doesn't walk much. Has ZERO power. So so Line Drive rates. Not a good combination. The Scouts love this guy, but I just don't see it. He's incredibly fast (they say faster than Upton) and has a good glove. But he can't hit. It would be one thing if he were 19 or 20, but he turns 23 on April 23rd.
Of course, Richar wasn't the answer, either. . . so letting him go was no great shakes. But if they let Hudson walk (which is probably the correct move, given his likely contract demands), we're down to Burke or EBone. Yikes.
How 'bout we get Tracy healthy and move Reynolds over to the keystone? (there go the ERAs)
I can see a situation where the org feels they have little choice but to reach a compromise with Hudson. I could tolerate four years. But this (2B) strikes me as one of the greater problems on their radar. I suppose they can always hope to be able to sign Ellis.
CYoung, 53bb/105k in 539 pa
JUpton, 64bb/118K in 642 pa
MReynolds, 52bb//148K in 579 pa
EBonifacio, 50bb/108K in 619 pa
IOW, PECOTA sees EBone striking out a bit, but not outrageously so, and sees a healthy spike in his walk total. Mind you, these are projections for him in the majors in 2008; he will get another full season in AAA (barring injury) to improve his hitting.
Of course, PECOTA sees him hitting .264/.327/.361 this year, so he clearly isn't ready, but if he indeed makes progress in his plate discipline and improves his walk rate, his speed may allow him to post pretty decent batting averages in the majors in 09 and beyond.
If he's really good defensively at 2b, the Dbacks can easily afford to carry him there, if they can receive significant offensive production elsewhere--which they should, assuming the rest of the young hitters mature/improve as expected over the next 2-3 years.
So either Dan is mean, or PECOTA is on crack, or both. But dammit, I need one, only one, middle infielder to come out of the AZ farm system and be better than Pedroia (not counting Uggla)...
Hudson smiles through pain
Baseball is his Aeroplane...
Watch Bonifacio this year. If he hits .290/.330/.380 in triple A, you want to sign Hudson or Ellis (presumably Hudson) at a compromise figure (maybe 3 years $33 million). If Bonifacio makes strides on his W/K, then maybe you let Hudson walk, and probably get $10 million per on the open market.
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