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Tuesday, March 05, 2019

Expectations Sky-High For Aaron Judge In Year 3

Could be an interesting season:

“See, that’s kind of the thing that drives me, to be honest,” Judge said in front of his George M. Steinbrenner Field locker earlier in spring training. “Nobody really knows. I don’t even know.

“People can speculate and say, ‘He’s like this guy, he’s like that guy.’ But that unknown is kind of what drives me. Like, how good can you be? How good could somebody be? Just having that constant motivation of the unknown is kind of what pushes me.”
.  .  .
“His competition, for me, is in the monuments. His competition, for me, is the history of the Yankees,” said Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson, referring to the plaques in Yankee Stadium’s Monument Park.

The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 05, 2019 at 05:49 AM | 72 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: aaron judge, great baseball players, new york yankees, reggie jackson

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   1. Nasty Nate Posted: March 05, 2019 at 10:20 AM (#5820275)
I predict that he will have a very good next few years, but never again hit for the extreme power he did in 2017. Maybe a near-Goldschmidt type offensive output - high OBP but with more 35ish HR power than 50 HR power.
   2. NJ in NY (Now with Big Girl!) Posted: March 05, 2019 at 11:39 AM (#5820318)
but with more 35ish HR power than 50 HR power.

RDF.
   3. Nasty Nate Posted: March 05, 2019 at 11:49 AM (#5820324)
RDF.
Do you think he'll reach 50 again?
   4. SandyRiver Posted: March 05, 2019 at 12:24 PM (#5820340)
Judge is so strong that he doesn't need very solid contact to put the ball over the fence. However, his high K/BB rate is leaving him with fewer than 350 opportunities to do so. If he can continue is on-contact rates while striking out less than 150 times and with 650 or so PA, 50 should be well within reach. Several "ifs" there.
   5. Tom Nawrocki Posted: March 05, 2019 at 12:25 PM (#5820343)
His season was cut short by injury last year, but even if you extrapolate him to 162 games played, that only gets him up to 39 homers.
   6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 05, 2019 at 12:27 PM (#5820344)
His season was cut short by injury last year, but even if you extrapolate him to 162 games played, that only gets him up to 39 homers.

I don't think anyone expects him to hit 50 every year, but I do think he'll do it again. Even Babe Ruth had way more seasons under 50 than over.
   7. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: March 05, 2019 at 12:28 PM (#5820345)
"This fella's so strong, he c'n squeeze off yer earbrows…" -- C. Stengel
   8. BrianBrianson Posted: March 05, 2019 at 12:34 PM (#5820347)
19 guys have hit 50+ HRs exactly once, 9 have done it 2+ times (5 twice, 1 thrice, 3 four times_. Really, it's probably wise to take the "No", to "Will guy X hit 50+ HRs again?"

Really, only Ruth had 50 HR power; maybe McGwire and Sosa perhaps, though they were also relying on a juiced ball.
   9. Benji Gil Gamesh VII - The Opt-Out Awakens Posted: March 05, 2019 at 12:56 PM (#5820353)
If I'm reading this right, there have been 4 50-HR seasons since 2010 (yes that's fairly arbitrary):

Giancarlo Stanton (27) 59 2017
Jose Bautista (29) 54 2010
Chris Davis (27) 53 2013
Aaron Judge (25) 52 2017

He's certainly one of the most likely given his age and demonstrated power, but yeah I'd probably bet against him doing it again.

There also this:

HR/2Bs, 2017: 52/24
HR/2Bs, 2018: 27/22 (39/31 extrapolated to 162 G)

2018 looks like a much more normal ratio, yes?
   10. Scott Ross Posted: March 05, 2019 at 01:00 PM (#5820356)
Framing a guy's historic power as being between Ryan Howard and Bob Horner does not bode well for the future.

Also, noting that he had more home runs than Ruth through his first 294 games is idiotic.
   11. NJ in NY (Now with Big Girl!) Posted: March 05, 2019 at 01:19 PM (#5820363)
Do you think he'll reach 50 again?

I'm not sure whether he'll reach 50, but I read (and apologies if I'm incorrect here) your comment as pegging him as a "normal" top level power hitter for this era and I don't think there's any reason to believe he is. That's based on his size, his performance record at the major league level, and the hitfx data that we have that all show this guy being somewhat of a freak. Even last year when he spent much of the year playing through a shoulder injury his numbers extrapolated to high 30s in the HR column. My expectation is that given normal health Judge will consistently put up at least 40 homers a year for the next 3-5 years.
   12. Nasty Nate Posted: March 05, 2019 at 01:23 PM (#5820366)
I'm not sure whether he'll reach 50, but I read (and apologies if I'm incorrect here) your comment as pegging him as a "normal" top level power hitter for this era and I don't think there's any reason to believe he is.
I think you read my comment correctly.
   13. Booey Posted: March 05, 2019 at 01:26 PM (#5820369)
Really, only Ruth had 50 HR power; maybe McGwire and Sosa perhaps, though they were also relying on a juiced ball.


McGwire and Sosa were averaging 60 HR a year during their peak; seems odd to say that maybe they had 50 HR power.

Peak BALCO Bonds also would have been a perennial 50+ HR guy if they didn't start walking him 200 times a year after he hit 73.
   14. bbmck Posted: March 05, 2019 at 01:56 PM (#5820378)
If someone hits a HR every 13 PA call that 50 HR power. At that point 1 in 12 seasons of 650 PA will have 60+ HR. 73 in 629 PA excluding IBB is 1 in 2878 chance, every other season is much more likely, McGwire's 70 is "only" 1 in 286 with 50 HR power. Ruth, Griffey Jr, McGwire and Sosa with multiple 55+ HR seasons and Bonds with 73 most likely have to be considered to have over 50 HR power.

Aaron Judge has nearly a 50% chance to hit 52 HR in 667 PA excluding IBB with 50 HR power, with 40 HR power it's roughly a 1 in 20 season based on random distribution.
   15. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: March 05, 2019 at 02:08 PM (#5820391)
Really, only Ruth had 50 HR power; maybe McGwire and Sosa perhaps, though they were also relying on a juiced ball.

The current ball is also pretty juiced.
   16. SandyRiver Posted: March 05, 2019 at 03:10 PM (#5820427)
There also this:

HR/2Bs, 2017: 52/24
HR/2Bs, 2018: 27/22 (39/31 extrapolated to 162 G)

2018 looks like a much more normal ratio, yes?

Maybe. Without consulting BBRef, Mantle and Maris come to mind. Mick's 2 with 50+ had 52/22 and 54/16. Maris' one was 61/16. Even David Ortiz, who hit 91 more 2B than HR for his career, was 54/28 in his one venture above the mark.
   17. bbmck Posted: March 05, 2019 at 03:53 PM (#5820457)
Since 1951 (Mays/Mantle debut) in the 3775 seasons of 20+ HR:

4+ HR per 2B: 1964 Harmon Killebrew 49/11, 1982 Dave Kingman 37/9, 2000 and 2001 Mark McGwire 32/8 and 29/4, 2017 Matt Olson 24/2, 1966 Art Shamsky 21/5, 1957 Wes Covington 21/4
3-3.99: 22 seasons including 3 more from McGwire, Gus Triandos and Hank Aaron each have two
2.5-2.99: 29 seasons, Sammy Sosa and Dave Kingman with 3 of 2.5+
2-2.49: 127 seasons or 3.4%, Mark McGwire is the only one with 100+ HR and this career or since 1951 ratio 583/252, Kyle Schwarber next most HR 72/36
1.75-1.99: 151 seasons or 4%, Harmon Killebrew 573/290, Dave Kingman 442/240, Ron Kittle 176/100, Ken Phelps 123/64, Joey Gallo 88/45
1.5-1.74: 289 seasons or 7.7%, Sammy Sosa 609/379, Mickey Mantle 536/344, Frank Howard 382/245, Norm Cash 377/241, Cecil Fielder 319/200, Rob Deer 230/148, Gus Zernial 203/126, Hank Sauer 183/118, Jim Gentile 179/113, Bo Jackson 141/96, Aaron Judge 83/48

1.25-1.49: 438 seasons or 11.6%
1-1.24: 873 seasons or 23.1%
0.75-0.99: 1045 seasons or 27.7%
0.5-0.74: 742 seasons or 19.7%
Under 0.5: 52 seasons; 2002 and 2010 Bobby Abreu 20/50 and 20/41, 1993 and 1998 Dante Bichette 21/43 and 22/48, 2000 and 2002 Nomar Garciaparra 21/51 and 24/56, 46 players with 1

135 players have 100+ HR since 1951 and two 2B per HR, 200 HR club: George Brett 317/665, Craig Biggio 291/668, Derek Jeter 260/544, Robin Yount 251/583, Johnny Damon 235/522, Paul Molitor 234/605, Jimmy Rollins 231/511, Al Oliver 219/529, Roberto Alomar 210/504, Kirby Puckett 207/414, Wally Joyner 204/409, Buddy Bell 201/425. That 200 Club combines for four 30+ HR seasons: 1987 Wally Joyner 34/33, 1986 Kirby Puckett 31/37, 2007 Jimmy Rollins 30/38 and 1985 George Brett 30/38.
   18. Walt Davis Posted: March 05, 2019 at 04:09 PM (#5820466)
There's likely some sort of useful information in that HR/2B ratio in that the difference between a power hitter and a "50 HR hitter" is in those few feet that turn doubles into HRs. McGwire's career ratio was 583/252 which is kinda staggering ... and more XBH than singles. Maybe the greatest "pure HR" hitter we've ever seen. By contrast, Babe was 714/506, Aaron 755/624, Mays 660/520 (+ 140 triples), Bonds 762/601. Sosa at 609/379 is pretty extreme. Getting more slo-footed and less historic ... Thome 612/451, McCovey 521/353, FHoward 382/245 ... finally, Killer is close at 573/290. No doubt that all correlates quite well with HR/PA, HR/AB and HR/FB.

Judge is at 83/48. Even Gallo only sits on 88/45.

Mac had two skills -- massive power and a willingness to stand there and do nothing but watch 4 pitches sail outside the zone.

I thought Carlos Zambrano was really gonna rock this one but actually his ratio is 24/26. MadBum also has one more double than HR.
   19. SandyRiver Posted: March 05, 2019 at 04:42 PM (#5820507)
Pujols has the most HR (633) of anyone with more 2B than HR. However, his margin is only 6 and thus vulnerable, though he added 1 to it last year 19/20.) Next on that piece of trivia is Ortiz with 541/632.
   20. eric Posted: March 05, 2019 at 04:48 PM (#5820512)
I've mentioned this before, but a surprising HR/2B ratio to me is Mickey Mantle: 536/344, which is almost exactly equal to FHoward's ratio, and more extreme than anyone's in Walt's list other than Killebrew and McGwire. The puzzling thing about it is that Mantle is a high-BA hitter, more like the Aaron/Mays/Pujols cohort than the slow, low-BA slugger type that is the more usual type with a high HR/2B ratio.

Edit: just because I was curious--Kong is 442/240, so less extreme than Mac or Killer, but more than Mantle.
   21. Walt Davis Posted: March 05, 2019 at 05:17 PM (#5820533)
Checking out of curiosity ... McGwire did have a season of 22/22 at age 27 ... also his worst fullish-season OPS+. His 1997 was rather odd -- 34/24 in Oakland then 24/3 in StL. His final season was 29/4. Mantle was the opposite as his HRs were falling back in line with his doubles in the last few years.

Anyway Mac (and Mantle) had a mid-career season or two with a ratio close to Judge's 27/22 last year so it doesn't rule Judge out of future extreme seasons. But his 79 XBH in 2017 tied Mantle's career high. Mantle had two more seasons over 70 XBH -- his other 50-HR season and his age-23 season with 25/11/37. Mac had one season over 70 before the late 90s (his rookie year with 49 HR) then did it regularly. Killer got to 70 three times but never quite got 50 HR. Stanton has topped 70 the last two years and just missed at ages 21, 22 and 24 -- crikey, 91 in 2017. Maybe there's a reason he's paid so much.
   22. bbmck Posted: March 05, 2019 at 05:50 PM (#5820545)
Giancarlo with 154 HR signs for $325mil tied for 10th most through Age 24 season with Bench, now 11th because of Trout 168 but staying ahead of Harper 150 and Machado 138. 22nd in extra base hits with 300, now 25th because of Trout 380, Machado 323 and Harper 317. All four have birthdays after June 30th.

Through 25 when Harper and Machado sign HR: T7th Trout 201, 12th Harper 184, 13th Giancarlo 181, T16th Machado 175. XBH: 4th Trout 441, 16th Machado 398, 19th Harper 385, T27th Giancarlo 340.

Through 28 when Trout might become a free agent and Giancarlo right now, Trout is 24th in HR with 240, two ahead of Ruth in 839 more PA, Giancarlo 8th with 305 four ahead of Andruw Jones and Juan Gonzalez. Trout is 33rd in XBH with 508, six ahead of Cobb in 1298 fewer PA, 19th Giancarlo 552 is seven ahead of Ruth in 991 more PA.
   23. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 05, 2019 at 09:44 PM (#5820587)
Judge hit a HR today, his 3rd of the spring. He's healthy, and was able to engage in offseason workouts, rather than injury rehabilitation like last season. I'll be very surprised if he is the extremely rare player who never exceeds his rookie-year HR production.
   24. Walt Davis Posted: March 06, 2019 at 02:14 AM (#5820601)
I'll be very surprised if he is the extremely rare player who never exceeds his rookie-year HR production.

But he is the even more extremely rare player that holds the rookie HR record ... and the probably at least as extremely rare player that has hit 50+ in a season. I'm sure those two tell us much more about his relatively low chances of surpassing that number than the fact that the vast majority of players surpass theirs.

McGwire of course did pass his but it took him 9 seasons (and sillyball) to get there. F Robinson topped his rookie year by one 6 years later then smashed it 10 years later. Wally Berger never topped his. Bellinger didn't come close last year despite more playing time.

Judge was also older than those guys as rookies, so he has less time in which to do it and is probably closer to his peak than they were. He's tied for 2nd behind Ruth (ARod) for HRs at age 25. Out of the others in the top 10, after age 25, Ruth of course topped his a few times, ARod topped his twice, Killer three times, but the other 6 guys never did. Not that that really tells us anything either unless it's also the case players with lots of HRs ar 26, 27, etc. also usually don't do it (i.e. there's nothing magical about age 25). As it turns out, for the age 26 leaders, only Ruth, Killer and Griffey topped it. Those who didn't includes ARod and Pujols. Age 27 turns out to be a weird grab bag (Helton, Chris Davis, Kevin Mitchell, George Bell) and the only one who did it there was Griffey (Ruth and Killebrew don't make the top 10). Age 28 also has some unexpected names (Shawn Green!) but Killer, Bonds, Gehrig and Aaron all set/tied career highs after 28.

As #8 pointed out ages ago (and surely we all knew), it's hard to hit 50+ once and almost nobody does it twice. Of the guys with 50+ multiple times, I think Bonds, Mac and Mays are the only ones to set career highs in their 30s so Judge better get a move on. And of course Judge would have to hit 52+ which is even harder. Still, I wouldn't bet against Judge exactly but I suspect it's more likely he'll take several runs at 50 but end up with a lot in the upper 40s (Aaron, Killer).

   25. Swoboda is freedom Posted: March 06, 2019 at 07:41 AM (#5820604)
Reggie Jackson hit 47 home runs in his second year, and never topped that. He was younger than Judge.
   26. Jose is an Absurd Kahuna Posted: March 06, 2019 at 08:55 AM (#5820610)
52 home runs is a big number. He could definitely get there, he is freakishly strong and plays in a home run park but he could also have a truly great career and still never hit 50 again.
   27. NJ in NY (Now with Big Girl!) Posted: March 06, 2019 at 09:11 AM (#5820611)
To be clear, I don't believe Judge is a lock to meet/exceed 52 homers anytime soon. I just think calling him a 35 HR guy undersells his power.
   28. Sweatpants Posted: March 06, 2019 at 09:25 AM (#5820613)
Of the guys with 50+ multiple times, I think Bonds, Mac and Mays are the only ones to set career highs in their 30s so Judge better get a move on.
Strange as it might seem, Bonds had only one 50-homer season.
   29. BrianBrianson Posted: March 06, 2019 at 09:29 AM (#5820614)
Indeed, Judge was 25 in his rookie season, just like Joe Charboneau, who never exceeded that total again.

But it's pretty straightforward - the more HRs you hit in your rookie season, the less likely you are to ever exceed that total. Whereas it did take Ozzie Smith 4 seasons to exceed his rookie season HR total, but you could reasonably guess it was bound to happen.
   30. Swoboda is freedom Posted: March 06, 2019 at 09:36 AM (#5820617)
Reggie Jackson hit 47 home runs in his second year, and never topped that. He was younger than Judge.


Ryan Howard hit 58 in his second year. He was 26. He had several more years of 40+ home runs, but never hit 50. I guess my point is it is hard to hit 50. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Judge hit a lot of home runs and never hit 50 again.
   31. BrianBrianson Posted: March 06, 2019 at 09:36 AM (#5820618)
Of the guys with 50+ multiple times, I think Bonds, Mac and Mays are the only ones to set career highs in their 30s so Judge better get a move on.


Jeez, of the nine guys

Babe Ruth: 32
Jimmie Foxx: 24
Ralph Kiner: 26
Willie Mays: 34
Mickey Mantle: 29
Ken Griffey, Jr.27 & 28
Mark McGwire: 34
Sammy Sosa: 29
Alex Rodiguez: 26

So, only 1/3rd were in their 30s. But only 1/3rd had done it by 26. Really, there's no real pattern.
   32. Brian Posted: March 06, 2019 at 09:40 AM (#5820620)
Reggie Jackson hit 47 home runs in his second year, and never topped that.


Reggie hit 37 before the All-Star Game (91 games before, 61 games after) that year. Plus, a massive HR in the ASG.
   33. Tom Nawrocki Posted: March 06, 2019 at 09:55 AM (#5820629)
He could definitely get there, he is freakishly strong and plays in a home run park


Understatement of the year. Judge hit nine homers on the road last year. He has consistently hit twice as many homers in NYS as he has on the road.

I'm a little sensitive to this as a Rockies fan, because so many people write off Rockies hitters as Coors Field creations, but if Judge ever gets traded, he'll be lucky to keep a starting job.
   34. Nasty Nate Posted: March 06, 2019 at 10:03 AM (#5820635)
I'm a little sensitive to this as a Rockies fan, because so many people write off Rockies hitters as Coors Field creations, but if Judge ever gets traded, he'll be lucky to keep a starting job.
Don't be what you hate!
   35. Tom Nawrocki Posted: March 06, 2019 at 10:13 AM (#5820639)
Don't be what you hate!


Too late for that!
   36. Howie Menckel Posted: March 06, 2019 at 10:13 AM (#5820640)
did not know that

Judge home:.322 AVG, .444/.693/1.137
Judge road: .226 AVG.,.353/.440/.793

54 HR at home, 29 on road, both in 630-640 PA.

never once have I heard this mentioned in the NYC media market, seriously.

tougher to win a title when your big dog may well be defanged for road games.

also Judge just .785 OPS in 203 high leverage PA - but it's Stanton who is accused of sucking in the big spot (he did last postseason iirc).

and Judge absolutely crushes SPs 3rd time through the order - 1.253 OPS - but is just .762 vs Power Pitchers in general.

now I am intrigued to see how 2019 plays out. he may be able to make adjustments.
   37. BrianBrianson Posted: March 06, 2019 at 10:24 AM (#5820643)
tougher to win a title when your big dog may well be defanged for road games.


Not if he hits like a clone made with the DNA of Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds when you're at home.
   38. Nasty Nate Posted: March 06, 2019 at 10:30 AM (#5820645)
also .226/.353/.440 is not a bad road line!
   39. Spahn Insane Posted: March 06, 2019 at 10:34 AM (#5820648)
Speaking of 50-homer seasons, I think it's bizarre no Rockie's ever had one. Coors Field + sillyball era and all.
   40. Howie Menckel Posted: March 06, 2019 at 10:40 AM (#5820649)
it's not a bad road line, but it reminds me of sluggers who have big platoon splits (which Judge does not have). they aren't the same player by any means, depending on the circumstances.
   41. Spahn Insane Posted: March 06, 2019 at 10:42 AM (#5820650)
19 guys have hit 50+ HRs exactly once

I get 20. Both Fielders did it once.
   42. BrianBrianson Posted: March 06, 2019 at 10:48 AM (#5820654)
Oh, yes, it's 20. Most likely I missed Greg Vaughn (alphabetically, the last guy to hit exactly 50 HRs). Though of course, Prince Fielder is a better comp for awesome power, hit 50 HRs when young, never did it again.
   43. Booey Posted: March 06, 2019 at 11:08 AM (#5820661)
McGwire of course did pass his but it took him 9 seasons (and sillyball) to get there.


TBF, McGwire SET the record in a sillyball-esque season and then offense dropped off dramatically immediately afterwards. His 42 HR in 467 AB's in 1992 is actually a slightly better HR rate than his 49 HR in 557 AB's in 1987, and that's before you even adjust for the league wide differences in offense (for example, his .987 OPS in 1987 was good for a 164 OPS+, while his .970 OPS in 1992 was worth a 176 OPS+).
   44. Booey Posted: March 06, 2019 at 11:27 AM (#5820664)
I get 20. Both Fielders did it once.


This needs to be posted again, just cuz it's so amazing:

Career HR:
Cecil - 319
Prince- 319

Top 7 seasons:
Cecil - 51/44/39/35/31/30/28 = 258
Prince- 50/46/38/34/32/30/28 = 258

Rest of career:
Cecil - 61
Prince- 61

It's not just that the career totals ended up the same, it's that all their best seasons are almost identical down the line. It's crazy.
   45. Nasty Nate Posted: March 06, 2019 at 11:35 AM (#5820666)
Cecil - 51/44/39/35/31/30/28
Prince- 50/46/38/34/32/30/28
Pant size as they aged, sorted from oldest to youngest?
   46. Booey Posted: March 06, 2019 at 11:47 AM (#5820671)
#45 made me laugh. Well done.
   47. bbmck Posted: March 06, 2019 at 12:17 PM (#5820680)
Fewest AB per HR in a 20+ HR season for each franchise including 20+ HR before or after a mid-season trade and seasons better than COL's best ratio:

6.52 - SFG 2001 Barry Bonds 73, 476, 1947 Johnny Mize, 1955, 65 Willie Mays, 1962, 69 Willie McCovey, 1989 Kevin Mitchell, 1994 Matt Williams, 1994, 99, 2000, 02-04 Barry Bonds
7.27 - STL 1998 Mark McGwire 70, 509, 1997, 1999-2001 Mark McGwire, 2003 Jim Edmonds, 2006 Albert Pujols
7.88 - OAK 2017 Matt Olson 24, 189, 1932 Jimmie Foxx, 1987, 92, 95-97 Mark McGwire
8 - ARI 2017 JD Martinez 29, 232, 2001 Luis Gonzalez
8.48 - NYY 1920 Babe Ruth 54, 458, 1921, 24, 26-30, 32 Babe Ruth, 1950 Johnny Mize, 1956, 61 Mickey Mantle, 1961 Johnny Blanchard, Roger Maris, 2007 Alex Rodriguez, 2016 Gary Sanchez, 2017 Aaron Judge

9.02 - CHC 2001 Sammy Sosa 64, 577, 1930 Hack Wilson, 1979 Dave Kingman, 1998-99, 2002 Sammy Sosa
9.23 - CLE 2002 Jim Thome 52, 480, 1994-95 Albert Belle, 2000 Manny Ramirez, 2001 Jim Thome, 2006 Travis Hafner
9.59 - DET 1938 Hank Greenberg 58, 556, 1937 Rudy York, 1990 Cecil Fielder
9.8 - ATL 1973 Hank Aaron 40, 392, 1971 Hank Aaron, 2003 Javy Lopez, 2005 Andruw Jones
10.02 - PHI 2006 Ryan Howard 58, 581, 1980-81 Mike Schmidt, 2007 Ryan Howard

10.12 - MIA 2017 Giancarlo Stanton 59, 597, 2015 Giancarlo Stanton
10.17 - PIT 1949 Ralph Kiner 54, 549, 1947 Ralph Kiner, 1971 Willie Stargell
10.26 - HOU 1994 Jeff Bagwell 39, 400, only
10.33 - BOS 2006 David Ortiz 54, 558, 1938 Jimmie Foxx, 1955, 57, 60 Ted Williams
10.33 - CIN 1994 Kevin Mitchell 30, 310, 1966 Art Shamsky

10.5 - CHW 1994 Frank Thomas 38, 399, only
10.54 - TOR 2010 Jose Bautista 54, 569, only
10.57 - BAL 1961 Jim Gentile 46, 486, 1964 Boog Powell, 1996 Brady Anderson, 2013 Chris Davis
10.65 - TBR 2007 Carlos Pena 46, 490, only
10.83 - SEA 1994 Ken Griffey Jr 40, 433, 1996-98 Ken Griffey Jr

10.95 - TEX 2002 Alex Rodriguez 57, 624, 1996 Juan Gonzalez, 2017 Joey Gallo
11.04 - MIN 2010 Jim Thome 25, 276, 1962-63, 69 Harmon Killebrew
11.29 - LAD 2018 Max Muncy 35, 395, only
11.35 - LAA 2008 Mike Napoli 20, 227, only
11.46 - MIL 2007 Prince Fielder 50, 573, only

11.46 - SDP 1998 Greg Vaughn 50, 573, only
11.59 - COL 1997 Larry Walker 49, 568
12.4 - WSN 2015 Bryce Harper 42, 521
12.44 - NYM 2006 Carlos Beltran 41, 510
13 - KCR 1994 Bob Hamelin 24, 312

Going by full season even if traded, 58 players have 105 seasons with a better AB/HR ratio than 1997 Walker. Babe Ruth and Mark McGwire 9, Barry Bonds 7, Sammy Sosa and Ken Griffey Jr 4, Jim Thome, Harmon Killebrew and Ted Williams 3.
   48. eric Posted: March 06, 2019 at 12:36 PM (#5820685)
Pant size as they aged, sorted from oldest to youngest?


From age 12 down to age 6.
   49. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 06, 2019 at 01:51 PM (#5820699)
also .226/.353/.440 is not a bad road line!


His tOPS+ is 67. Some loosely comparable hitters:

Bryant - 95
Stanton - 93
Arenado - 79
JD Martinez - 89
Goldschmidt - 99

Point is, while his numbers aren't bad numbers, they are hardly superstar numbers.
   50. BrianBrianson Posted: March 06, 2019 at 02:14 PM (#5820708)
Uhm, tOPS+ is comparing how good he is on the road to how good he is at home. It's penalising him for being good at home, making it totally worthless in this context.

A .226/.353/.440 in an average AL park (so, averaging over all road parks) is something like an OPS+ of 118, which is pretty good.
   51. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 06, 2019 at 03:08 PM (#5820734)
Uhm, tOPS+ is comparing how good he is on the road to how good he is at home. It's penalising him for being good at home, making it totally worthless in this context.

A .226/.353/.440 in an average AL park (so, averaging over all road parks) is something like an OPS+ of 118, which is pretty good.


No. it's comparing how good he is in his split vs his overall numbers. His .793 road OPS is 170 points below his overall numbers. Which is why I said this: Point is, while his numbers aren't bad numbers, they are hardly superstar numbers. A 118 OPS+ from a corner OF is not superstar numbers.

My point is that unless the trend changes, any team that might trade for Judge had best understand what they are likely to get, and not get. And chances are in this day and age, they do.
   52. bbmck Posted: March 06, 2019 at 03:11 PM (#5820739)
162nd to 165th in Road OPS min 200 PA in 2018: Kevin Pillar .690, Aaron Judge .688, Todd Frazier .687, Isiah Kiner-Falefa .687; 222nd and last: Chris Davis .494
59th to 62nd in Road OPS min 400 PA in 2017-18: Mike Moustakas .828, Aaron Judge .827, Jedd Gyorko .824, Steven Souza Jr .824; 218th and last: Billy Hamilton .546
80th to 83rd in Road OPS min 600 PA in 2016-18: Adrian Beltre .794, Melky Cabrera .793 Aaron Judge .793, Steven Souza Jr .792; 191st and last: Billy Hamilton .566
   53. Nasty Nate Posted: March 06, 2019 at 03:14 PM (#5820742)
Uhm, tOPS+ is comparing how good he is on the road to how good he is at home. It's penalising him for being good at home, making it totally worthless in this context.

No. it's comparing how good he is in his split vs his overall numbers.
Isn't that effectively the same comparison?

If he was worse at home, but still .226/.353/.440 on the road, he would have a higher tOPS+, right? Despite having the exact same road performance.
   54. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 06, 2019 at 03:27 PM (#5820753)
If he was worse at home, but still .226/.353/.440 on the road, he would have a higher tOPS+, right? Despite having the exact same road performance.


You're missing the point. The 67 tOPS+ shows that, as of now, he's a creature of NYS. The ~118 road OPS+ shows that he (so far) has been far from a superstar outside of NYS. Instead of Aaron Judge, he's more like Josh Reddick or Nick Castellanos.I agree, the not being able to hold a job comment was way off. Reddick and Castellanos are good players (well, the latter would be if he fielded like Judge), but they aren't superstars.
   55. Nasty Nate Posted: March 06, 2019 at 03:44 PM (#5820763)
I agree, the not being able to hold a job comment was way off.
OK. That's pretty much the reason I posted about his raw road stats.
   56. BrianBrianson Posted: March 06, 2019 at 03:56 PM (#5820777)
Isn't that effectively the same comparison?


Why yes, yes it is.

You're missing the point.


I'm not missing the point. I'm correctly noting that the point is exceedingly dumb, and an essentially pointless statistic is being misused to hide how exceedingly dumb it is. All sorts of arguments along the lines of "if you ignore when a player has done well, they look worse" exist, and they're all foolish.
   57. PreservedFish Posted: March 06, 2019 at 05:05 PM (#5820824)
The 67 tOPS+ shows that, as of now, he's a creature of NYS.


It might mildly suggest it. Not a huge sample, and I don't see any reason to believe that one of the hardest hitters the game has ever seen is somehow uniquely tailored to take advantage of NYS in a way that he cannot tap into on the road.
   58. stig-tossled, hornswoggled gef the typing mongoose Posted: March 06, 2019 at 05:23 PM (#5820833)
Reggie hit 37 before the All-Star Game (91 games before, 61 games after) that year. Plus, a massive HR in the ASG.


If it's the Tiger Stadium home run you're referencing, that came two years later. He went 0-for-2 in '69.
   59. Walt Davis Posted: March 06, 2019 at 05:24 PM (#5820836)
So, only 1/3rd were in their 30s. But only 1/3rd had done it by 26. Really, there's no real pattern.

Wasn't looking for a "pattern". It's rare to hit 50. Of those who hit 50, only about half do it again. Of those who do it again, most of them do it again before the age of 30. Of those who hit a ton at 25, only about 1/3 ever matched/exceeded that again (and similar for other ages). Start multiplying all of that together (even when adjusting for non-independence) and it becomes quite unlikely that Judge will match/exceed 52 ... which is to counter the earlier suggestion that it would be very unlikely for him not to exceed his rookie total. It's a matter of looking at it by different slices and comparison groups -- is there any way to view it (in terms of a reaosnable comparison group) in which we would not consider it unlikely for him to match/exceed 52?

Belaboring the obvious, clearly the population "all rookie players" and the event "exceeded their rookie HR total in some later season" is not a useful way to assess Judge's chances of matching/exceeding his age-25, 52-HR season. Alas, by definition, any comparable group will be a small group. So we might look at it by how guys who hit a lot of HRs (most <50) at 25 did -- but that's unfair since there's nothing unique about 25 (other than it giving you fewer potential seasons in which to excel). So we see something similar at ages 26, 27 and 28. We also see something similar for guys who repeat or for 50-HR seasons at 31+. This starts to suggest -- it's not particularly likely to happen and, if he's gonna do it, he'll probably do it in the next 4-5 years ... not a very big window. But yes, obviously with a teeny comparison group, there's heaps of uncertainty in any speculation we have about his chances.
   60. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 06, 2019 at 05:28 PM (#5820845)

There's probably some reason to be concerned given that Judge was .212/.315/.373 on the road last year, which was only a 93 sOPS+ (which compares Judge's road numbers compared to the average player's road stats). In 2017, he was .256/.404/.531 on the road with 19 homers. That's a 155 sOPS+ and an 80 tOPS+.
So it depends whether you think 2018 was a fluke.
   61. Nasty Nate Posted: March 06, 2019 at 05:41 PM (#5820849)
But why would we look at 250 PA's of stats when we have a bigger sample available?
   62. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: March 06, 2019 at 05:48 PM (#5820852)

Not suggesting you should. I'd just be a bit more confident if the trend had been moving in the other direction.
   63. Sunday silence Posted: March 06, 2019 at 10:19 PM (#5820889)
That recounting of Reggie's 69 season was pretty interesting (I did not know that) and adds a bit more meat to Bouton's story in Ball Four when Maglie (Im guessing) tells them the way to pitch to Jackson is to not throw him any strikes. And he hits two dingers off them and after each one someone on the bench yells: there another one of those effin strikes.

Something like that. But I guess the league figured out not to pitch to him in the second half of the season. Interesting.
   64. SandyRiver Posted: March 07, 2019 at 09:15 AM (#5820930)
Judge home:.322 AVG, .444/.693/1.137
Judge road: .226 AVG.,.353/.440/.793

54 HR at home, 29 on road, both in 630-640 PA.

That's 65% at home. A quick un-thorough search found Mel Ott with 63% at home, which I'd guess is tops for those with lots (say 400+) dingers. Ott's numerical difference - 135 more at home - is even more likely to be the most. Then there's those who have the reverse split. Joe D. hit 59% of his on the road, 65 more there than at YS. Does anyone top either number? Ortiz got close - 241 at home and 300 on the road.
   65. Tom Nawrocki Posted: March 07, 2019 at 09:26 AM (#5820933)
Todd Helton, who spent his prime in pre-humidor Coors, hit 61.5% of his homers at home. Carlos Gonzalez is at 61.4%.
   66. BrianBrianson Posted: March 07, 2019 at 09:35 AM (#5820937)
But why would we look at 250 PA's of stats when we have a bigger sample available?


Because the numbers don't support the conclusion you want to draw, unless you cherry pick a small sample.
   67. Howie Menckel Posted: March 07, 2019 at 09:35 AM (#5820939)
Mel Ott seems like a really bad comp to Judge. His career home tOPS+ was 106 vs road 94.
as noted earlier, Judge so far is home 134 vs road 67.
(DiMaggio was 93 home vs 108 road.) (Ortiz career is 108 to 92).
   68. bbmck Posted: March 07, 2019 at 12:11 PM (#5820997)
The 343 players with 200+ career HR hit 51.09% at Home, 55071 at 1 per 21.16 AB, on the road 52727 at 1 per 23.04 AB. Highest and Lowest Home HR % with:

200-299 HR: Bill Dickey 66.8, Cy Williams 65.7, Bob Horner 65.1, Bobby Doerr 65, Rico Carty 64.7, Dante Bichette 64.6, Rico Petrocelli 63.8, Carlos Gonzalez 61.5, Earl Averill 60.5, Dolph Camilli 60.3
300-399 HR: Chuck Klein 63.3, Ron Santo 63.2, Hank Greenberg 61.9, Todd Helton 61.5, Matt Holliday 59.2, Johnny Mize 59.1, Yogi Berra 58.7, Greg Luzinski 58.3, Fred Lynn 57.8, Ralph Kiner 56.9
400+ HR: Mel Ott 63.2, Frank Thomas (Jr) 59.9, Paul Konerko 59.5, Billy Williams 57.5, Ernie Banks 56.6, Jimmie Foxx 56, Jim Thome 55.4, Chipper Jones 55.3, Duke Snider 55, Mark Teixeira 55

200-299 HR: Goose Goslin 37.1, Tim Wallach 39.6, Sid Gordon 40.6, Bill Skowron 40.8, Hunter Pence 41.5, Pedro Guerrero 41.9, Bill Nicholson 42.1, Roberto Clemente 42.5, Victor Martinez 43.1, Tony Oliva 43.2, Jason Bay 43.2
300-399 HR: Adrian Gonzalez 40.7, Joe Adcock 40.8, Joe DiMaggio 41, George Brett 42.9, Luis Gonzalez 43.8, Boog Powell 44.2, Curtis Granderson 45.2, Lance Berkman 45.4, Steve Finley 45.4, Jack Clark 45.6
400+ HR: David Ortiz 44.5, Juan Gonzalez 45.4, Mike Piazza 45.7, Eddie Mathews 46.5, Willie Stargell 46.5, Andruw Jones 46.5, Dave Winfield 46.9, Andre Dawson 47.3, Albert Pujols 47.4, Jose Canseco 47.4

More at Home: Mel Ott 135, Frank Thomas 103, Ron Santo 90, Todd Helton 85, Paul Konerko 83
More on the Road: Joe DiMaggio 65, Goose Goslin 64, Joe Adcock 62, David Ortiz 59, Adrian Gonzalez 59

Between these two players in AB/HR in the 200 HR Club:

Bill Dickey - Home: Joe Gordon and Eddie Murray, Road: Paul Molitor and Dickey is last
Chuck Klein - Home: Frank Howard and Justin Upton, Road: Mike Lowell and Brady Anderson
Mel Ott - Home: Adam Dunn and Manny Ramirez, Road: Justin Upton and Del Ennis

Goose Goslin - Home: Buddy Bell and Roberto Clemente, Road: Ruben Sierra and Dave Parker
Adrian Gonzalez - Home: Ian Kinsler and Travis Fryman, Road: Phil Nevin and Mark Teixeira
David Ortiz - Home: Dale Murphy and Dante Bichette, Road: Ted Williams and Juan Gonzalez
   69. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 15, 2019 at 08:43 PM (#5823098)
Just to update, Aaron Judge is at .321/.406/1.000 for the spring, with 5 HRs. Not guaranteed to carry over, but swinging a good bat & staying healthy are prime spring training goals.
   70. Blastin Posted: March 16, 2019 at 11:58 AM (#5823148)
I think he settles in to being a great hitter but mostly around 40 a year rather than 50+, which may happen again but is unlikely since he's not going to catch anyone by surprise.

I think he's a 6 WAR/year guy for the next several years (he would have been last year but he got hit by that pitch).

And then he gradually becomes what Joey Gallo is now when he gets old.
   71. Swoboda is freedom Posted: March 16, 2019 at 06:15 PM (#5823214)
And then he gradually becomes what Joey Gallo is now when he gets old.

That would be amazing. I would love to see if he could switch to being a left handed hitter. ;)
   72. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 16, 2019 at 08:49 PM (#5823228)
I think he's a 6 WAR/year guy for the next several years (he would have been last year but he got hit by that pitch).

Judge was on-pace for another 8 WAR season until that HBP last year. He hit another HR today, too.

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