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Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Fack Youk: AL East Q&A: Jonah Keri On The Rays

FY: The Rays won 97 games, the AL East and the AL Pennant in 2008 and then finished just three games over .500 in 2009. Which of those results do you think will more closely resemble their finally tally in 2010?

JK: I’d bet on closer to 97 wins than 84, though it might be close to the mid-point. In a lesser division, I see the Rays as having 95-win talent, maybe even slightly better. Andrew Friedman has called this the most talented Rays team during his entire tenure, and with the additions of Soriano and Kelly Shoppach and maturation of young players like David Price and B.J. Upton, I agree. When you play an unbalanced schedule against the two other elite teams in the American League, though, that’s going to take a bite out of your record. At least the Jays could offer an opportunity for the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays to all make up for beating on each other all season.

FY: Last one: What do you think the AL East standings are going to look like when the regular season is over?

JK: Yankees, Rays (Wild Card), Red Sox, Orioles, Jays.

Thanks to Eddy.

Repoz Posted: March 31, 2010 at 01:23 PM | 6 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: rays, site news

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1. Dale Sams Posted: March 31, 2010 at 02:06 PM (#3489367)

Over/under on the "Are the Rays for realz??!!11" hoopla to die down? Two months.

And it's Rays, Yankees, Sox, Orioles, Jays.

2. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Molina Posted: March 31, 2010 at 02:39 PM (#3489394)

I think the Rays are either winning more than 90 games or under .500 this season...no middle ground. The team is certainly strong, but if they are too far behind the Yankees and Red Sox come July, they're going to start selling/trading parts and retooling. Crawford will be gone for sure, and if Upton doesn't start bringing his game back to pre-2009 levels, they'll find him another home too. If Shields is still pitching decently at the trade deadline, someone will take him for a handsome package of minor-league talent. Ditto Soriano.

They've already expressed a desire to cut payroll in 2011, and will happily rebuild for a future run, Marlin-style.

3. trtaylor6886 Posted: March 31, 2010 at 04:36 PM (#3489531)

Why trade Shields? He has a team-friendly contract. CC, Pena, Soriano, and Burrell take up nearly half of the teams payroll and are the most likely to be traded if they fall out of contention.

4. The Nightman Cometh Posted: March 31, 2010 at 04:54 PM (#3489551)

What's the general feeling on Upton? I know he's still young and has great tools, but what's been up the last two years? In '08 he lost over 100 points of SLG but maintained his OBP. Last year his OBP cratered on top of losing another 30 points of SLG.

He's got over 2000 PA and a 101 OPS+. That production from a centerfielder isn't gonna kill you, but it's not exactly what was expected from him.

5. RJ in TO Posted: March 31, 2010 at 04:56 PM (#3489554)

I know he's still young and has great tools, but what's been up the last two years?

Didn't he make a mess of his shoulder a couple years ago? I seem to remember that most of his 2008 decline was blamed on some sort of injury that he chose to play through.

6. Rafael Bellylard: Built like a Molina Posted: April 01, 2010 at 03:32 AM (#3490203)

Why trade Shields?

If they do, it will be one of those trades where someone in contention will be willing to give up an A+ and two B prospects to get a starter for the pennant drive. I think the Rays would make that move if they found the right partner and were out of the race in 2010.

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Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Fack Youk: AL East Q&A: Jonah Keri On The Rays

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