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Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Fangraphs: Anderson: The Worst Regular in Baseball

Uhhh…the Astros have brought Jason “0 fer 25” Smith back up?

More than 200 plate appearances into the season, Brian Giles remains the worst regular in baseball. Suffice to say, Giles abrupt decay is a bit surprising. Sure, he’s 38 years old and plays in a notoriously suppressive offensive climate, but even Giles’ park-adjusted numbers are repulsive. His .255 wOBA translates to -12.7 offensive runs. Giles has played nearly as poorly on defense, posting a -8.1 UZR despite playing an outfield corner.

All told, Giles has been worth 1.5 wins below replacement level, good for a “value” of $-6.9 million; the Padres are paying him $9 million over the course of this season.

Giles has struggled to hit the fastball this season to the tune of -2.25 runs per 100 heaters faced, a glaring weakness which the league has exploited by throwing him fastballs 66% of the time. It’s hard to tell whether Giles has lost his bat speed or something else along the way, but his performance this year represents a drastic drop from that of his previous seasons:

2006 0.12 wFB/C

2007 0.92 wFB/C

2008 1.16 wFB/C

Repoz Posted: June 17, 2009 at 12:11 PM | 55 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: padres, sabermetrics

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1. Chris Dial Posted: June 17, 2009 at 12:38 PM (#3221948)

Fun with small sample sizes!

2. AROM Posted: June 17, 2009 at 12:48 PM (#3221957)

Tough call. Giles is old enough that he could just be done. Then again, the Padres were premature in calling the end of Jim Edmonds last year, and after all the "Ortiz is done" talk, he's suddenly back.

In the Padres' case it might be time to pull the plug on Giles just to get more AB for the younger players on the team, with full understanding that he could snap out of the slump at any moment. That and to have one less domestic abuser around.

3. Latnam's first name is Bob Lemon's middl Posted: June 17, 2009 at 12:49 PM (#3221959)

Misreading the headline, I thought this was going to be about Garret Anderson. I was trying to figure out how they picked him over Francoeur...

4. jcnyc Posted: June 17, 2009 at 01:19 PM (#3221984)

I'm with Latnam. I was sure this was about the Braves outfield.

5. SouthSideRyan Posted: June 17, 2009 at 02:05 PM (#3222045)

Aaron Miles.

6. JoeHova Posted: June 17, 2009 at 02:18 PM (#3222054)

I was sure this was about the Braves outfield.

I was thinking Yuniesky Betancourt ($-5.5) or Emmanuel Burriss ($-3.7). I guess positional adjustments save them to some extent. By Fangraphs' numbers though, Delmon Young has been even worse than Giles, being worth -7.1 million dollars. Francoeur doesn't approach any of those 4 guys, he's only been worth $-1.2 million. Mike Aviles ($-4.0), David Ortiz (h/t AROM) ($-3.0), and Garret Anderson (h/t Latnam) ($-2.8) seem to be other contenders but it doesn't appear anybody can approach Young & Giles. (I'm sure there are more terrible guys out there, but those are some that came to mind.)

Jason Smith ($-2.7 in 29 PAs) and Brad Nelson ($-2.3 in 23 PAs) were impressively terrible, despite not being regulars. Nelson cost the Brewers $100,000 per plate appearance, apparently.

7. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: June 17, 2009 at 02:20 PM (#3222058)

Maybe Giles needs to be slapped around?

8. AROM Posted: June 17, 2009 at 02:31 PM (#3222072)

Maybe Giles is tanking on purpose? So when his court case comes around, nobody will believe he's capable of hitting anything?

9. JJ1986 Posted: June 17, 2009 at 02:35 PM (#3222081)

Francoeur doesn't approach any of those 4 guys, he's only been worth $-1.2 million.

Is this because of his throwing arm? He's got to be worse on offense and the catching balls part of defense.

10. Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: June 17, 2009 at 02:37 PM (#3222086)

The knowledge of ballplayer indiscretions here at BTF astounds me. I'm not referring to Giles. This thread just reminded me of that. There was a Ramon Castro one recently and someone brought up an old charge against him.

11. JoeHova Posted: June 17, 2009 at 02:43 PM (#3222093)

Is this because of his throwing arm? He's got to be worse on offense and the catching balls part of defense.

I'm not sure. I don't know exactly how they calculate the numbers but I am a sucker for them because I think it's funny to think of a team presenting the player with a bill based on these numbers.

12. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 17, 2009 at 02:46 PM (#3222104)

I'm not sure. I don't know exactly how they calculate the numbers but I am a sucker for them because I think it's funny to think of a team presenting the player with a bill based on these numbers.

That would be awesome!

It's like when people invite you to a wedding (that you have to go to) and it's someplace inconvenient (but not so inconvenient that you can beg out) and scheduled so you have to spend two nights in a hotel. You feel like writing in the card, I was going to give you $250, but net of my expenses, here's $38.50.

13. The Kids Are Enright (1k5v3L)

Posted: June 17, 2009 at 02:47 PM (#3222106)

Where's the #### love for Eric Byrnes?

14. Obi One Kenobi Nil

Posted: June 17, 2009 at 02:49 PM (#3222107)

He's too gritty to be the worst player in baseball

15. Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: June 17, 2009 at 02:54 PM (#3222110)

That would be awesome!

I'm sure that the MLBPA would be thrilled.

16. Tracy Posted: June 17, 2009 at 02:54 PM (#3222112)

By Fangraphs' numbers though, Delmon Young has been even worse than Giles, being worth -7.1 million dollars.

I hadn't noticed before, but wow, he's been terrible this year. Three extra-base hits, five walks and 51 K's. What the hell happened?

17. Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: June 17, 2009 at 02:59 PM (#3222119)

Where's the #### love for Eric Byrnes?

The world doesn't revolve around the Diamondbacks; although I do still chuckle at his baserunning blunder in the '03 ALDS and how he looks like Prince Adam from He-Man.

18. Young Blasarius yonder Posted: June 17, 2009 at 03:03 PM (#3222124)

I hadn't noticed before, but wow, he's been terrible this year. Three extra-base hits, five walks and 51 K's. What the hell happened?

Wow. Yeah, hadn't realized he's been quite that bad either. His line is pretty brutal - 258/.288/.291. Carlos Gomez is trumping him in slugging - .235/.291/.338.

Meanwhile, what the heck happened to Vernon Wells? .241/.297/.368? Looks like he's been in every game but is he playing hurt or something?

19. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: June 17, 2009 at 03:05 PM (#3222125)

It's like when people invite you to a wedding (that you have to go to) and it's someplace inconvenient (but not so inconvenient that you can beg out) and scheduled so you have to spend two nights in a hotel. You feel like writing in the card, I was going to give you $250, but net of my expenses, here's $38.50.

20. RJ in TO Posted: June 17, 2009 at 03:06 PM (#3222128)

Meanwhile, what the heck happened to Vernon Wells? .241/.297/.368? Looks like he's been in every game but is he playing hurt or something?

There has been no public announcement about an injury, so it's probably just a matter of hitting like ####.

21. The Good Face Posted: June 17, 2009 at 03:10 PM (#3222132)

Maybe Giles is tanking on purpose? So when his court case comes around, nobody will believe he's capable of hitting anything?

I lol'd.

BBTF: Providing a full day's supply of domestic violence jokes!

22. Bob Dernier Cri

Posted: June 17, 2009 at 03:11 PM (#3222133)

As Chris points out in #1, it's still early enough for some of these lines simply to be slumps (though the age of guys like Giles and Byrnes would seem to indicate that they're never coming very far back therefrom).

Here's a ghastly line, for instance: .208/.291/.401, over 224 PAs, by an everyday leadoff hitter. That's Ian Kinsler from 22 April through the day before yesterday. He has been so good the rest of the time that he is certain to be an All-Star, maybe the starter at 2B.

23. Dr Love Posted: June 17, 2009 at 03:15 PM (#3222138)

He has been so good the rest of the time that he is certain to be an All-Star, maybe the starter at 2B.

Is this sarcasm?

24. Obi One Kenobi Nil

Posted: June 17, 2009 at 03:16 PM (#3222140)

Eric Byrnes was a swirling vortex of suck last year as well.

25. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 17, 2009 at 03:34 PM (#3222165)

A friend of mine went to a wedding where at the end of the meal, the waiters brought around bills. This was a young couple, so it's fine to ask people to help out on the costs, but you have to tell people that. Apparently several guests hadn't brought any cash--the place didn't take credit cards--so they went and raided their gift envelopes.

Wow! That's as bad as I've heard.

I don't know why people feel the need for a big wedding. If you can't afford it, just have coffee and cake in the Church basement.

26. Bob Dernier Cri

Posted: June 17, 2009 at 03:38 PM (#3222169)

Is this sarcasm?

Sorry, didn't mean any sarcasm. Kinsler is leading the AL voting at 2B. He's obviously an excellent player and just as obviously was just Godawful for almost two months. There's no particular contradiction or sarcasm involved.

27. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: June 17, 2009 at 03:43 PM (#3222178)

Wow! That's as bad as I've heard.

My friend actually invited me to go as her (platonic) date. I didn't, to my infinite regret as the thing was a disaster from start to finish. The bride (Jewish) and groom (Catholic) converted to Islam while studying abroad together in Egypt, where they met, but negelected to inform either set of parents so both were apparently taken aback to show up to the ceremony and discover an Imam standing there ready to do it.

One set of parents walked out and had to be talked back in, delaying the start hugely. Just a train wreck all around.

28. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: June 17, 2009 at 03:54 PM (#3222197)

One set of parents walked out and had to be talked back in, delaying the start hugely. Just a train wreck all around.

Oh man, that sounds infinitely awesome unless they went alcohol free at the reception. Then I say nay!

Where is Phil Coorey's pub, by the way. I'm heading to Oz in September.

29. gef the talking mongoose Posted: June 17, 2009 at 03:57 PM (#3222205)

Oh man, that sounds infinitely awesome unless they went alcohol free at the reception.

As I assume would be the case. Islam prohibits consumption of alcohol, no?

30. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: June 17, 2009 at 04:00 PM (#3222209)

Where is Phil Coorey's pub, by the way. I'm heading to Oz in September.

Toowoomba, and I cannot recommend enough that you stop by, Phil is a host of jaw-droppingly excellent quality.

31. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: June 17, 2009 at 04:01 PM (#3222212)

Toowoomba, and I cannot recommend enough that you stop by, Phil is a host of jaw-droppingly excellent quality.

[Shooty heads to Wikipedia. Makes a note to try not to annoy everyone around him by saying Toowoomba over and over again]

32. Gambling Rent Czar Posted: June 17, 2009 at 04:02 PM (#3222215)

All told, Giles has been worth 1.5 wins below replacement level, good for a “value” of $-6.9 million; the Padres are paying him $9 million over the course of this season.

The funniest part about this. The Padres had an option on Giles this winter. If they cut him they still had to pay three million, so the plan was to exercise his option for 9 million, and then trade him after the first couple of months.

Here's Depodesta on it.

link This is the one that has been touched on, but not fully explored. This is the raw business end of the deal. If we had not picked up Brian's option, we would have had to pay a $3 million buyout, and it would not have made sense to offer him arbitration. Therefore, declining the option would mean: $3 million and nothing in return.

By picking up the option, however, we gave ourselves the chance at upside. The 2009 season can unfold two ways, roughly speaking. The first scenario, the one everyone wants, is that we play well in the first half of next season - we get into July and we're in the race. Brian certainly gives us a better chance of that happening, and if it does happen, we'll be happy to have him.

The second scenario is that we don't play well, and we're out of contention. In this instance, we have the chance of trading Brian (a reader already posted a link to an article that mentions Brian's willingness to be traded under those circumstances) and getting some prospects in return. Should we trade him in the middle of July, our total payment would be about $5.25 million.

So, rather than paying $3 million for nothing, we could pay $5.25 million for 3 1/2 months of Brian's productive play, his mentoring of our younger players, and either possible contention or prospects in return. There is the possibility of injury or reduced production, but that is a risk with every player, and given Brian's track record that is a very acceptable risk given the upside potential.

33. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: June 17, 2009 at 04:05 PM (#3222228)

[Shooty heads to Wikipedia. Makes a note to try not to annoy everyone around him by saying Toowoomba over and over again]

Good luck with that, I'm pretty sure I drove my co-workers insane. In any case, it's a bit outside of Brisbane, and a really pretty town. In addition to Phil, Lu is incredibly sweet and the twins are cute as all get out.

Seriously, my only hesitation is that I fear I will drive a stream of Primates to Phil's door, and I can't imagine he sees himself running a BBTF Boarding House.

34. Boots Day Posted: June 17, 2009 at 04:24 PM (#3222255)

Where's the #### love for Eric Byrnes?

In Jeff Moorad's pants.

35. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: June 17, 2009 at 04:26 PM (#3222258)

Seriously, my only hesitation is that I fear I will drive a stream of Primates to Phil's door, and I can't imagine he sees himself running a BBTF Boarding House.

I won't be able to make it on this trip, sadly. My original plan was to fly into Brisbane and just wander north, but it's my mom's 60th birthday this year so I'm flying over with her as a birthday present. Now I'm going to Sydney and probably the Blue Mountains area to make things easier for my mom. Next year! I really want to work my way northward through Queensland and then head up to New Guinea one day.

36. Lassus Posted: June 17, 2009 at 04:29 PM (#3222265)

Shooty, I cannot recommend New Zealand more strongly if you're going down there. It is the only place I would consider emigrating to if they would let in someone with no discernible skills.

37. Maxwn Posted: June 17, 2009 at 04:34 PM (#3222277)

It is the only place I would consider emigrating to if they would let in someone with no discernible skills.

What does Jeff Francoeur have to do with you moving to New Zealand?

38. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: June 17, 2009 at 04:38 PM (#3222281)

Shooty, I cannot recommend New Zealand more strongly if you're going down there. It is the only place I would consider emigrating to if they would let in someone with no discernible skills.

It's on the list. If I get up the courage to ask my girl to marry me, that's our honeymoon destination.

39. Lassus Posted: June 17, 2009 at 04:46 PM (#3222291)

If I get up the courage to ask my girl to marry me, that's our honeymoon destination.

Make sure when you ask her you lean heavily on wanting to go to the WETA Workshop and then a the Lord of the Rings locations tour as the centerpiece of your honeymoon.

There's no WAY she could say no. Really.

Am I helping your courage?

40. Shooty: Applying to be Fearless Leader

Posted: June 17, 2009 at 04:48 PM (#3222295)

Am I helping your courage?

I don't know what the WETA Workshop is! I just want to see penguins and kiwis.

41. SouthSideRyan Posted: June 17, 2009 at 04:55 PM (#3222310)

I don't know why people feel the need for a big wedding. If you can't afford it, just have coffee and cake in the Church basement.

Is this sarcasm?

42. SouthSideRyan Posted: June 17, 2009 at 04:59 PM (#3222313)

My friend actually invited me to go as her (platonic) date. I didn't, to my infinite regret as the thing was a disaster from start to finish. The bride (Jewish) and groom (Catholic) converted to Islam while studying abroad together in Egypt, where they met, but negelected to inform either set of parents so both were apparently taken aback to show up to the ceremony and discover an Imam standing there ready to do it.

Just wait til the Catholic parents find out she was originally Jewish. Then the fireworks begin.

43. SouthSideRyan Posted: June 17, 2009 at 05:01 PM (#3222318)

Seriously, my only hesitation is that I fear I will drive a stream of Primates to Phil's door, and I can't imagine he sees himself running a BBTF Boarding House.

I'll be there to collect my $2000 bucks Phil.

44. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: June 17, 2009 at 05:02 PM (#3222320)

Is this sarcasm?

No. If you can't afford a reception, don't have one.

Or just have your close family and take them out to dinner.

I find it amusing that as marriage has become less important in our society the wedding has become more important (the reception, not the ceremony - which is important).

45. The cushions are crowded for Edmundo

Posted: June 17, 2009 at 05:03 PM (#3222323)

.208/.291/.401
Better than the entire year of a leadoff hitter who happens to be the NL leading SS vote-getter.

46. The cushions are crowded for Edmundo

Posted: June 17, 2009 at 05:04 PM (#3222325)

WETA
Wallabies for the ethical treatment of animals?

47. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: June 17, 2009 at 05:04 PM (#3222326)

Those two things might be linked, in a way. Maybe as the actual thing becomes less permanent, less significant, people feel the need to have some huge event to point to. I sure don't get it, though.

48. Craig in MN Posted: June 17, 2009 at 05:32 PM (#3222376)

I hadn't noticed before, but wow, he's been terrible this year. Three extra-base hits, five walks and 51 K's. What the hell happened?

The BBs and Ks aren't really that big of outlier for Delmon. I think the problem is that he's been really struggling, so he wants to make some contact to break out of his slump, so his hacktastic tendencies get exaggerated. But the guy's got excuses, if he wants to use them. His mother died about a month ago, and was very sick before that. Shortly before he left the team to deal with that, he was hitting 303/349/355. And in the past 2 weeks, he's hitting 353/343/382. If you give him a mulligan for those few weeks around the death of his mother (and use the almighty power of selective endpoints), he merely looks like a decent hitter with absolutely no power, rather than a total nightmare. He might not ever be great, but I expect him to bounce back to useful before too long.

49. Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: June 17, 2009 at 05:44 PM (#3222398)

Wallabies for the ethical treatment of animals?

This is probably going to start some silly argument...

50. Shock Posted: June 17, 2009 at 06:13 PM (#3222446)

And in the past 2 weeks, he's hitting 353/343/382

Is this a typo? If not, that has to be the worst line I have ever seen that has a 350+ average

51. SouthSideRyan Posted: June 17, 2009 at 06:15 PM (#3222453)

This is probably going to start some silly argument...

Is the BTF crowd too old to start a best Nicktoon argument?

52. Randy Jones

Posted: June 17, 2009 at 06:18 PM (#3222458)

Is the BTF crowd too old to start a best Nicktoon argument?

Rocko's Modern Life with an honorable mention to Ren and Stimpy, end of discussion.

53. SouthSideRyan Posted: June 17, 2009 at 06:20 PM (#3222460)

Nailed it.

54. Walt Davis Posted: June 17, 2009 at 09:02 PM (#3222702)

It is the only place I would consider emigrating to if they would let in someone with no discernible skills.

Ha Ha!

If I get up the courage to ask my girl to marry me, that's our honeymoon destination.

Seems to be a hidden assumption in there Shooty my boy.

I don't know what the WETA Workshop is!

Get out of your mom's basement and get a life.

I just want to see penguins and kiwis.

Kiwis, not a chance ... well, not in the wild. Penguins ... easier to find on some island a few hours south of sydney than here but not unfindable.

Seals and dolphins are a dime a dozen though.

It is odd living someplace with (essentially) no native mammals. A land full of trees ... and no squirrels.

55. Dr Stankus and the Semicolons Posted: June 17, 2009 at 09:09 PM (#3222714)

Whew...not a Giant. Amazing.

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Fangraphs: Anderson: The Worst Regular in Baseball

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