The Cubs are in the midst of a drought. That one, too, but over the last decade-plus, their first round selections have inspired confidence only in the team’s inability to draft well in that round. 1999’s Ben Christensen is more famous for his hit-batsmen antics than his playing career. Then came Luis Montanez, then that Mark Prior guy, but since then, things have resembled Wrigley’s ivy in January. In 2002 came Matthew Clanton, Chadd Blasko, Luke Hagerty, and Bobby Brownlie. The next few years brought Ryan Harvey, Mark Pawelek, and then Tyler Colvin – who seemingly just made the Cubs opening day 25-man roster over the weekend.
...Offensively, Colvin has more than 1,000 at-bats at Double-A, yet he’s never spent a day at Triple-A. His career Double-A slash line is .276/.318/.461; that’s an ISO of .185 to go with a walk rate of 5.5% and strikeout rate of 19.4%. Baseball America has noted that Colvin’s plate approach against crafty pitchers is iffy because he must cheat to square up on fastballs. That might be a problem because it would seem that the pool of crafty pitchers is only going to enlarge once major league teams become aware – if they aren’t well aware already.
Colvin’s fantastic exhibition season appears to be the driving force behind him making the roster. In an ideal world, your team’s players perform above expectations in spring training. This is not an ideal world. Reality exists. The reality is Colvin’s spring performance is unlikely to be a harbinger of Colvin’s rise to the outfield prospects elite. CHONE and ZiPS have Colvin posting a wOBA of .308 and .299, respectively. Unless his glove is something else, he’s going to hurt the Cubs more than he’s going to help them.
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1. Dewey, Steven Wright Wannabe and Soupuss Posted: March 29, 2010 at 05:09 PM (#3487954)I saw over the weekend that the Cubs dealt Andres Blanco to Texas; I assumed that they were trying to make room for Millar (whom they seem to love), but maybe not.
Oh crap! He's a good backup MI.
Is Colvin making the team instead of Millar, or in addition to Millar?
I assume he comes at the expense of Fuld or Hofpauir and only one of those guys was gonna make the team anyway. Colvin's probably a worse choice than Fuld but it's not going to matter a whole lot. But the Cubs are fools if they start the season with Nady, Colvin and Millar, lose Hofpauir (I assume he's out of options) and have only Baker as back-up IF. And if they do that, short memory on Hendry's part -- he tried having only one backup MI early last season and that lasted only a month.
Here's a classic quote (from Piniella): You reward the performance in spring. If not, there's no sense in keeping statistics.
I agree with half of that. :-)
EDIT: and as it currently stands, the only backup MI (or 3B) on the Cubs 40-man is Baker. Given Nady's TJ surgery, I assume he's not available for even emergency 3B duty. Tracy spent part of his career standing near 3B and Millar has done it on occasion. Another terrible job of roster construction by Hendry.
EDIT 2, electric boogaloo: In fairness, Colvin is hitting 475 this spring. It would be hard not to notice.
You've got to assume that Fuld is out of the mix; they don't need another outfielder, do they?
Given Nady's TJ surgery, I assume he's not available for even emergency 3B duty.
My understanding is that Nady won't be able to even play the outfield until June or so. His utility as a pinch-hitter only would seem to be limited; why not put him on the DL? There's an obvious roster crunch going on here.
I missed this too. I don't know if I like that. No bat, but he can really pick it out there--pretty much a textbook backup MI.
Ye gods, this has to be a no-brainer. Unfortunately, Nady appears to be limited to a role very similar to Hoffpauir so I'm a little scared they will choose Millar. Fuld has to be off the board now that Colvin made the team.
I didn't mind the antics as much as his .223/.311/.363 line, and Cito batting him 4th.
Someone is going to have to explain to me what is so bothersome about this. Would you rather he just not care?
Yeah, that Millar, what a jerk.. being all positive and competitive.
I can't explain it. There are just certain players who annoy me, and Millar happens to be one of them.
Because, why? Because he cares?
I'm not trying to pick a fight about someones random dislikes, God knows I have plenty, but I guess I just can't wrap my head around someone being hated on for wanting to win.
Again, what is the alternative? You'd rather he just give up and take his check to the bank each month?
I'd rather not hear his "rah, rah" schtick as he's sucking out there on the field. I'd rather not hear about his keeping the clubhouse loose as they burn through a nine game losing streak. I'd rather not waste a roster spot on his supposed veteran presence when there were all sorts of other better options out there who might actually help the team win games.
That he wants to win wouldn't be a problem, if he has any way of actually contributing to that goal.
EDIT: I also get that you're not trying to pick a fight. Don't worry about that.
What I find "funny" about this is that once upon a time Millar was young dude raking in AA/AAA, and he publicly complained about the fact that "veterans" who couldn't play anymore were getting roster spots over guys like him...
Millar hit .318/.375/.500 in AA, 523 PAs, next year?
Back to AA, hit .342/.423/.605 in 594 PAs
Someone like Millar may very well feel that earned his paychecks NOW by having been blocked when he was younger, he was certainly a MLB caliber hitter 2-3 years before he got regular MLB PT
He worked out very hard in the offseason, reportedly gaining 25 pounds of muscle.
This increased strength has improved his bat speed, and he has said he no longer needs to "muscle up" to hit a home run.
He had attempted to rework his swing last season, taking advantage of being in rehab for an arm injury. It didn't seem to work, but he has apparently become a Jaramillo disciple. Rudy can continue to work with him for a few weeks while AAA isn't even playing a serious schedule.
He is a better outfielder than any of the three starters, and not much worse than Fuld. Nady can play the field, but cannot make long throws. The Cubs need someone as a defensive outfielder, and Fuld was just struggling tremendously at the plate this Spring. Once he gets back to his mediocre, high-OBA ways in Iowa, and Hendry realizes Colvin is sitting five days a week, look for the switcheroo.
He is a better outfielder than any of the three starters, and not much worse than Fuld.
*cough* small sample size *cough*. Plus, are you seriously saying that Fuld AND Colvin are better than Fukudome, Byrd, and Sori? Please. (EDIT: unless I misread you and you just mean defensively. Then you have an argument. Though I am skeptical of his ability to play an even average CF).
I'm not a big Kevin Millar fan either, but it's not like he's going to get a ton of ABs. Hoffpauir seems like the obvious pick for the last guy off the bench, but it's not that much of a slam dunk given that his enormous platoon split diminishes his value as a PH. Why not include someone that everyone seems to like? He's not going to harm the team all that much unless there's a major injury to Lee, and if that happens the Cubs are screwed anyway.
FWIW Hoffpauir has an option left.
Plus, isn't Darwin Barney on the 40-man roster, as far as 'break in case of emergency' MIF go?
I had no problem with him as the Phelpser made good. I though he symbolized everything that was wrong with the Orioles (though he was clearly playing on merit, there was no possible upside) but I didn't dislike him. I hated the team mindset that made it practically inevitable that he'd land there.
Not according to MLB.com. Doesn't look like he needs to be on the 40-man yet.
Anyway, it's just awful roster construction. If Nady can't play the field (I'd forgotten about that) then he needs to be DL'd. Then, fine, pick your fave of Hof, Millar, Tracy (along with Colvin) then add a second MI.
Some teams could probably get away without a second backup MI. But ARam misses too much time plus the Cubs are running a platoon at 2B and lord only knows why you'd want to commit yourself to playing Theriot every single day (you'd think that kid went to Notre Dame).
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