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Thursday, May 14, 2009

Fangraphs: Anderson: Willie’s Blooming Power

or…A diatribe called Bloomquist.

Last season, in 192 plate appearances Willie Bloomquist recorded 46 hits, 45 of which were singles. That’s good for a batting line of .279/.377/.285, or an ISO of 0.006, one of the lowest in major league history. Naturally, Bloomquist has followed his powerless exhibition with 70 plate appearances and a .509 slugging percentage this season.

Ignore the .408 BABIP, the fact that Bloomuqist only has four extra base hits, and that his HR/FB% is well above career norms, and just focus on the sample sizes at play. Which is more likely to tell us of Willie Bloomquist’s true talent level:

A) ~70 plate appearances with a .500+ slugging
B) ~1,400 plate appearances with a .324 slugging

...Even if you park adjust and somehow attempt and objectively credit his improved power to coaching and an improved atmosphere, you still won’t be able to add nearly 0.200 points of slugging – and if you did, you probably did it wrong. At the end of the day this is still Willie Bloomquist. The hot start is certainly going to help his end of season numbers, but the reason ZiPS projects Bloomquist to finish with a .385 slugging is not because it hates him, but because there’s an entire body of evidence suggesting against Bloomquist’s new found power stroke.

Repoz Posted: May 14, 2009 at 10:54 AM | 14 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: projections, sabermetrics, zips

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1. The Buddy Biancalana Hit Counter Posted: May 14, 2009 at 01:51 PM (#3178709)

I may be out of the loop, but I wasn't aware that Royals fans were under the impression that Willie Bloomquist '09 is anything other than a delightful fluke that is unlikely to last. That Anderson doesn't (can't?) link to an example the assumption he's refuting suggests that I may, for once, know what's going on.

2. RJ in TO Posted: May 14, 2009 at 02:00 PM (#3178716)

I may be out of the loop, but I wasn't aware that Royals fans were under the impression that Willie Bloomquist '09 is anything other than a delightful fluke that is unlikely to last. That Anderson doesn't (can't?) link to an example the assumption he's refuting suggests that I may, for once, know what's going on.

You undoubtedly do know what's going on. At least from the excerpt, this reads a lot like the recent "Jays unlikely to keep up their pace" articles, where the writer churns out something to make it seem like they've uncovered some deeper truth that the masses were incapable of divining for themselves. Meanwhile, the masses are all throwing things, and yelling "Yeah, we knew that already. We're not complete yokels - we're just enjoying the goodness while it's happening."

3. AROM Posted: May 14, 2009 at 02:21 PM (#3178736)

Yeah, the whole small sample size sabermetric staple (say that 5 times fast) has gotten to the point of beating a dead horse.

4. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 14, 2009 at 02:46 PM (#3178757)

I know Willie sucks, but so far this year he has done a lot of little things that endear him to you. He has been an excellent bunter, has pulled off a beautiful hit and run, has been patient at the plate, seems to play shortstop adequately, and seems to be a goofy guy that even poked fun at himself for hitting a home run. I want to hate him, but he makes it very hard. I guess when I see his .600 OPS at the end of the year, my rage will be sufficiently high enough.

I know the power is a fluke, but what about his sudden spike in walks? He's already drawn ten free passes - he has never drawn more than 25 in a season before. The Royals have a few guys with drastic spikes in walks - Billy Butler, Coco Crisp, Alberto Callaspo, even Mike Jacobs is drawing more walks. I can't help but wonder if Kevin Seitzer is already having an immediate impact on their plate discipline.

5. Crispix Attacks Posted: May 14, 2009 at 02:53 PM (#3178764)

If the internet has taught us anything, it's that you can find an example of any type of idiot who believes any idiotic thing you can imagine. If this guy was writing this for the Fox Sports website I guarantee there would be people in the comments saying "haters gotta hate...ahahaha just accept it, Willie has figured it out this year, he's a huge bargain...liberals always denying the obvious". Then Anderson would have his belief that he's actually debunking the beliefs of a lot of people vindicated.

6. The Buddy Biancalana Hit Counter Posted: May 14, 2009 at 02:56 PM (#3178765)

I want to hate him, but he makes it very hard.

Maybe that's what the second of year of his contract is for?

7. AROM Posted: May 14, 2009 at 02:58 PM (#3178768)

The spike in walks took place last year, when he had a .377 OBP. You left out the part about his career high of 25 coming in only 192 PA. Decent OBP, good speed, capable of handling any position - Willie is a useful utility player even if he doesn't have another extrabase hit the rest of the year.

I guess we'll have to go back to the drawing board to find the worst player in MLB (Willie won the award in a poll on Tango's site a year or 2 ago.)

8. RJ in TO Posted: May 14, 2009 at 02:58 PM (#3178770)

Maybe that's what the second of year of his contract is for?

Nah. That's what the three-year extension to be signed in the coming offseason is for.

9. RJ in TO Posted: May 14, 2009 at 03:01 PM (#3178773)

I guess we'll have to go back to the drawing board to find the worst player in MLB (Willie won the award in a poll on Tango's site a year or 2 ago.)

Frenchy seems pretty determined to take a serious run at that title, although I'm sure that some offensively horrific middle infielder will soon rise to the occasion. Or, if a subgroup of Boston fans are to be believed, David Ortiz.

10. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 14, 2009 at 03:02 PM (#3178774)

I guess we'll have to go back to the drawing board to find the worst player in MLB

Have we already forgotten Tony Pena Jr.?

11. Paul The Paranoid Android Posted: May 14, 2009 at 03:08 PM (#3178779)

I guess we'll have to go back to the drawing board to find the worst player in MLB

Yesterday's Armageddon-inducing home run aside, may I submit Brett Gardner?

12. Crispix Attacks Posted: May 14, 2009 at 03:19 PM (#3178793)

David Ortiz and Jamie Moyer are neck and neck for worst player in MLB. Just like 1998 was the season that saved baseball, this one will destroy baseball again.

13. hokieneer Posted: May 14, 2009 at 03:28 PM (#3178800)

I guess we'll have to go back to the drawing board to find the worst player in MLB

According to fangraphs, Brian Giles has been the least valuable player this year, -1.5 WAR. It was obviously Wang before he went on the DL. Frenchy has too much defensive value to ever be the "worst", he'll just end up in the -.4 to 0 range somewhere. I'm still holding out some hope for Ortiz, but I woudln't be surprised if he finishes near the ~~top~~ bottom.

14. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: May 14, 2009 at 04:17 PM (#3178855)

"I'm still holding out some hope for Ortiz, but I woudln't be surprised if he finishes near the top bottom."

Depends how aggressively you account for his total inability to play the field, I guess.

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Thursday, May 14, 2009

Fangraphs: Anderson: Willie’s Blooming Power

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