When Joe Posnanski, Jayson Stark, and Rob Neyer all weigh in on a topic within a few days, odds are pretty good that there’s something of interest there. Odds are also good that most all of the points worth making have already been spoken for, as those three are among the best on earth at discussing issues relating to baseball. And so, when they all tackled Carlos Gonzalez over the last few days, I figured they’d touch all the bases. However, while they did a good job of discussing most of the issues, they left out one pretty important piece of the discussion, and that’s where I’m going to throw my hat into the ring.
Gonzalez is having a great year, certainly. No one will argue otherwise. His .423 wOBA is among the best in the league, and he’s spent a significant amount of time in center field this year. Offense from an up the middle position is extremely valuable, and his bat has been more than adequate even when he’s playing one of the corner spots. Of course, when discussing Gonzalez’s performance, it is impossible to talk about the numbers without also mentioning Coors Field. Posnanski tackles the issue of his home/road splits with quite a bit of depth, and does a good job of explaining why you shouldn’t just look at his road numbers and treat them as his true talent level, assuming that the entirety of the difference should be attributed to the park.
However, there’s another piece to park effects that goes beyond trying to figure out what a guy would have done in a neutral environment, and for the purposes of MVP votes, I’d argue that it’s even more important – the value of a run in a specific environment. Put simply, a run in Colorado is worth less than a run in other places.
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1. A triple short of the cycleIsn't this what OPS+ is for?
One thing that seems to happen a lot to Rockies players is that they'll have extreme splits when they first start playing in Coors, which then eventually wash out. Tulowitzki was bashed around here because his road stats in his rookie year of 2007 were fairly weak, but he hit .267/.352/.507 on the road last season, and has hit .307/.351/.510 on the road so far this year. His home/road tOPS+ split was 128/73 in 2007, 115/85 in 2009, and is 106/94 so far in 2010. Matt Holliday showed a similar progression in his home/road tOPS+ split:
2006: 132/69
2007: 126/72
2008: 110/89
So I wouldn't be surprised if Gonzalez' splits calm down a little over the next few years, even if his overall numbers don't change much. The question is: If that happens, would that affect our evaluation of his 2010 season?
Yes. It would be nice if Fangraphs park-adjusted their wOBA...
These are not separate pieces of park effects. The reason that you try to figure out what a guy would have done in a neutral environment is precisely that a run does not have the same value in different places.
Clearly those type of progressions didn't occur in the pre-humidor era. But the general pattern for the middle-of-the-lineup hitters was to post a 120/80 split in OPS. Holliday's overall split isn't far off from this.
Carlos is currently going in the opposite direction from the two examples you've provided. And right now, his SLG at Coors (.721) is higher than Larry Walker's (.715). He's clearly figured out how to take advantage of the park this year, especially in terms of hitting HRs. He's accounted for nearly 30% of the Rox' HRs at Coors, as opposed to 12% of their HRs on the road.
Ian Stewart has hit better on the road this year. Todd Helton is just a touch better at home (104/96 tOPS+ home/road split).
The funny thing about the Rockies this year is that the Coors effect has almost all been on one side of the ball. The pitchers have given up an OPS that's just 30 points higher at home, but the hitters have an OPS that's more than 200 points higher at home.
tOPS of Rockies' home splits year-by-year in Coors:
Year Bat Pitch-----------------
1995 127 120
1996 138 112
1997 118 108
1998 123 109
1999 126 119
2000 129 114
2001 124 111
2002 129 107
2003 121 101
2004 120 111
2005 122 101
2006 113 104
2007 115 103
2008 114 100
2009 116 105
2010 129 104
Edit: how about that 1996 team? Of the top 10 guys in PA's, the best tOPS for the home OPS is 123. The team was 28-53 on the road, 55-26 at home...even worse than this year's split.
Pitches in Colorado should theoretically move less than pitches elsewhere. This means that when players leave Colorado, they should be more vulnerable to pitches that move, especially in places like SF, LA (at night) and SD. but they can learn to anticipate greater movement on the road, just like COL pitchers can learn to anticipate less movement at home.
Visiting pitchers and hitters, however, are at a disadvantage both ways, with or without the humidor. Pitches don't move the way either expect. It seems like it should be an incredible home team advantage.
The Rox have scored 40% more R/g at home this year, as opposed to about 25% more in '09.
Stewart is some kind of anomaly--he's just not been able to hit with power at home this year. Helton stopped hitting HRs a few years back, and whatever's happening to him home/road this year is kind of dwarfed by what looks like a terminal decline. Lifetime H/R OPS split is 120/80.
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