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Wednesday, July 01, 2009

Fangraphs - Cameron : Morgan = Dunn

When the Nationals signed Adam Dunn over the winter to a 2 year, $20 million contract, the reaction from the sabermetric community was almost unanimously positive towards the move for Washington. For a fraction of his original asking price, they got the guy who had become something of a poster boy for the kind of player that statistical analysts have been claiming is undervalued for years. The walks and power skillset produces a lot of runs, and Dunn has a master’s degree in the walks and power skillset.

When the Nationals acquired Nyjer Morgan yesterday, the reaction from the sabermetric community was almost unanimously negative towards the move for Washington. He was routinely called a no-power fourth outfielder, easily replaceable, and a 29-year-old with no upside. The Nationals were destroyed for giving up on a “talent” like Lastings Milledge to acquire Morgan. Analysts I have quite a bit of respect for, like Keith Law, Dan Szymborski, and our own R.J. Anderson, hailed this as an easy win for the Pirates, as none of them see much value in Morgan.

Here’s the problem. Nyjer Morgan and Adam Dunn are nearly equals in value, and the polar reactions from the sabermetric crowd puts the blindspots that have been developed over the last 10-15 years on full display.

Esoteric Posted: July 01, 2009 at 07:13 PM | 104 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nationals, pirates, projections, sabermetrics

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   101. Obi One Kenobi Nil Posted: July 02, 2009 at 01:51 PM (#3240144)
Transitioning between outfield spots seems to me an area where a scouting take is just as important as the measurement. Due to the spread of chances across the outfield there is every chance a guy could save more runs in centre than left field simply due to the intrinsic limitations on value associated with the former. Particularly if a guy is a centrefielder miscast as a left fielder because of organisational depth.
   102. Barnaby Jones Posted: July 02, 2009 at 02:03 PM (#3240159)
He is what he is, if he is a professional and gets what he can out of his talents, you can't blame him for being subpar in left field anymore than you can blame him for not writing like Twain or not being the fifth member of the Ninja Turtles.


Say what you want about him, but Adam Dunn can never be accused of hitting like a girl.
   103. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 02, 2009 at 02:18 PM (#3240173)
At the very least, you figure an omniscient god would have a better batting eye.

Just don't try and tell me that Jesus Christ can't hit a curve ball.
   104. Jeff K. Posted: July 02, 2009 at 07:25 PM (#3240668)
Say what you want about him, but Adam Dunn can never be accused of hitting like a girl.

There is much greater acceptance of mutated turtles than one would think, apparently. A mutated rat, okay, he just wants some friends. But another one gets free on her own and is also adopted and taught martial arts? This stretches credibility.
Page 2 of 2 pages  < 1 2

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