Are you a traditionalist? Adrian Gonzalez is hitting .356, leads the league in RBIs, and plays for a first place team. He’s the classic model of what a league MVP has traditionally been. If you like RBIs and team win totals, you don’t have to look far to find your obvious candidate.
Did you grow up reading Bill James? Then you’re probably in the “best player should win” camp, and you prefer to reward a guy for what he did and not what his teammates helped him do. Jose Bautista is probably your guy, since he’s having one of the great offensive seasons in baseball history, and is far and away the best hitter in baseball this year.
Do you have a strong preference for positional scarcity? Your pool is a little more crowded since there are a lot of up-the-middle guys having strong seasons this year. Dustin Pedroia could be your candidate – depending on your feelings about defensive metrics – but Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, and Asdrubal Cabrera could also work their way into the mix depending on just what kind of offense/defense ratio you prefer to look at.
...So, despite the fact that the crowd is superficially crowded, there are still really only two guys who look like they may gain a lot of traction when the final votes come down – Gonzalez and Bautista. And really, that means we’re headed for the same argument we have every year; best player or most RBIs on a winning team guy. You’ll hear arguments about all kinds of other variables, but in the end, those are basically the two camps.
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1. Paul D(uda) Posted: August 05, 2011 at 03:22 PM (#3893367)Look out, the Jays are 56-55 and called up Lawrie today. Not in the postseason race, but it would be hard to say that Bautista's stats are meaningless since they may end up with the best record outside of the playoff teams.
I also acknowledge the Blue Jays, if in the AL Central, would win 90 games and make the playoffs...it doesn't seem fair to be a Blue Jays fan lately...
On the plus side, at least we get to watch Jose Bautista on a regular basis.
I see you've read the FanGraphs comments already.
The games are still worth watching & the gap between the Halladay & Bautista eras was negligible. Save your pity for Astros fans.
Because if you wait until the end, you can only write one or two columns about it. If you start now, you can probably find an excuse to get 5 or 6 columns out of it.
Exactly. This is the only argument necessary to disqualify Bautista. In my mind, awarding the MVP to a player on a non-playoff team is the height of absurdity. What difference did that player make? Similarly, since the Red Sox and Yankees each possess an 8-game lead over the Angels for the Wild Card, one must disqualify each member of those teams from MVP contention. They could have made the playoffs without him.
If the season ended today, the AL MVP simply must play for the Rangers (1 up) or Tigers (3 up). The best player available is Verlander, but awarding the MVP to a pitcher is indecorous and offends the sensibilities except in the most extreme circumstances. A pitcher's proper award is the Cy Young. The next best player available is Miguel Cabrera, but the Tigers may be a playoff team right now if he were merely replaced with an average first baseman. That is far from ideal. It seems that Adrian Beltre, the Ranger with the highest WAR, is the most appropriate pick. Although 5 members of his former team appear to be having at least a slightly better season, surely Beltre has been the more valuable player given his team's current position. Replace him with even an average player and the Rangers would plummet right out of the playoffs. Beltre is clearly the most worthy MVP candidate.
I can't say that I regularly peruse the comments there, but the few times I have seen them it's mostly an echo chamber, which I'm sure is exacerbated by them now being able to thumbs down any non-echo chamber posts
I'm hoping that the entire comment was some absurdist performance art, because not even sports writers would say something as ridiculous.
No, the height of absurdity is giving out an individual award to a player because of his teammates. (well to be honest, the height of absurdity in baseball terms(recent) was putting Jim Rice in the hof or voting for Jack Morris) but in regards to MVP debate the height of absurdity is awarding an individual award based upon team actions (in the Cy Young debate the height of absurdity is voting for a Cy Young award based upon a theoretical model like fip)
cfb, I think he agrees with you - his post seemed to be in jest.
So to you MVP means best player on the crappiest team to make the playoffs?
.....
Wow, just wow.
Au contraire, it's actually pretty good performance art.
So to you MVP means best player on the crappiest team to make the playoffs?
Scoff as you will, but this argument has in fact been put forth by people who actually voted in years past.
I disagree. You get to watch Jose Bautista. There's not greater joy in fandom.
You also get to watch Romero, Morrow, Cecil, Escobar, Rasmus, Thames, Arrencibia and even Encarnacion. The only bad part is watching anyone in their bullpen not named Casey Jannsen.
Unfortunately, this part is absolutely horrible.
100%. Sorry for misleading anyone into thinking otherwise. I'll slowly back away from the thread now. This MVP discussion is more intense than I realized.
So, by that reasoning, you're saying Craig Counsell is actually the best player of the last 15 years?
http://www.onionsportsnetwork.com/articles/turns-out-craig-counsell-was-actually-best-basebal,6581/
Also, a propos of nothing, while clicking around on bbref I noticed that the A's team offense at the moment has a lower OPS+ (86) than Marco Scutaro (89).
The Mariners have a lower OPS+ (79) than Juan Pierre (80). .228/.291/.335 - I had no idea it had gotten THAT bad again.
Strictly speaking, it's not, but.
I'm on record as being pessimistic about whether the Jays will ever win anything of consequence again. But let's say for the sake of argument that I'm not. Anthopoulos is doing all the right things in putting this roster together. If it works, and the Jays do start a stretch of a few years in which they can win 95 or so games, beat the Red Sox and Yankees and Rays and have some postseason success...
... well, that'll be a lot more satisfying than if they sneaked into an AL Central title with 87 wins. A lot more.
I don't think it'll ever happen. I hope I'm wrong. It would be remarkably tasty to witness the Jays crushing their enemies, driving their enemies before them, and hearing the lamentation of their women.
But right now the Jays are just another snake cult.
is that really the going opinion among the Children of Bill James crowd???
I Hadn't thought about it like that. Bautista's 202 OPS+ currently ranks as the 42nd best all time among batting title qualified players since 1901
Link
thats a great season if he maintains it, but sounds like Cameron may be jumping the gun here a little. My guess is he falls under 200 before the end of the season...(Which is why I showed 190 as the floor here)
Hey speak for yourself, I thrive on pity!
Correct. True greatness implies pitching in on the talent acquisition front.
Yes, but if you take out the GUILTY! GUILTY! GUILTY! Bonds, McGwire and Sosa, it's #6 of the expansion era behind Bagwell and Thomas (both in the shortened 94 season), McCovey, Mantle and Brett. So if he keeps it up, that will be quite impressive to the punters -- the best "clean" full-season OPS+ in 30 years.
Note two of Bonds' seasons were before the steroid clock officially starts but I say we burn all his records at the stake.
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