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Friday, July 11, 2014
Fun with stats! Obviously, the first step is figuring out James’ single-season value, and this is why we’ll have two approaches. One idea: last year, James was worth about 2.3% of all basketball WAR. Because a baseball season has 1,000 total WAR, that would give us a target of about 23. The other idea: James is projected for about 21 WAR. That’s over an 82-game season, so over a 162-game season, you’d be talking about almost 42 WAR. I don’t know which way to go, so I’ll go both.
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1. JimMusComp likes Billy Eppler.... Posted: July 11, 2014 at 07:32 PM (#4749104)To have a LeBron type in MLB, you'd have to combine Bonds, Smith, Kimbrel and Kershaw.....
Yep.....
Being 1/5 of the team and playing defense and offense all game makes each player that much more important compared to baseball.
Yep. I mentioned it in another thread somewhere...something you won't ever see uttered in regards to baseball "Signed for the league maximum"... utterly ridiculous concept.
Except in 1923, that 14 WAR was accomplished in 152 games, and that 8.7 in 40 starts. You can't simply combine them, as the season is not 192 games long.
What would James make per year with no salary caps. $70 million?
OK, I guess I can see that. You still have to reduce his 1923 dWAR by 25%, but that costs him only 0.4, so that gives him 22.4 total.
Pete Rose?
Chicago gets Walter Payton, Jordan and .... Thomas/Anson/Maddux?
California, Mays/Bonds, Montana, Magic/Kobe/Jabbar (and add Gretzky for the fun of it)
This game confuses me on many levels, but Kareem, Bonds, and Montana blows this out of the water.
I imagine that it's going to be New York and California wiping away the rest of the competition in something like this.
Then New York has Kareem, Gehrig, and, I dunno, Vinny Testaverde, I don't really follow football.
I'd take Cy Young or Mike Schmidt over Rose
and Jim B was born in Georgia and grew up on Long Island
Awfully hard to qualify something like that though.
Does time in prison count?
Basically have a pitcher who starts a quarter of your games and who cuts the run environment by half or more. Steve Carlton started 41 games and completed 30 of them. His team went 29-12 in his starts and really he set them up in great shape to win 36 of his 41 starts. A pitcher like that removes 100 to 140 innings from the bullpen. A pitcher like that allows you to cut your pitching staff by at least one pitcher and allows you to expand your bench by at least one positional player.
Red Grange, Michael Jordan, and Cap Anson.
Serra has Tom Brady, Barry Bonds, and, uh, not a single NBA player...
McClymonds has Bill Russell, Frank Robinson, and Wendell Hayes
Oakland Tech has Rickey Henderson, Marshawn Lynch, and Jim Pollard
Anyone know of a high school that produced hall of famers in baseball, football, and basketball?
And Kareem was born in NYC, not Cali.
Yeah, it's really a choice between winning Super Bowls or not.
It depends on what is the discussion that you are trying to have...
If the discussion is "what city/state has seen the highest level individual play for them in the major sports." Then it's pretty obvious that the discussion is about best players relative to the leagues, to play in those cities...I think expanding it to state is a little too much personally, but limiting it to city, seems like a legitimate discussion.
Red Grange, Michael Jordan, and Cap Anson.
Who were born in Pennsylvania, New York and Iowa, respectively.
Actually, I think I'd rather have Bob Feller on my all-Iowa team, along with Kurt Warner (football), and, ummmm, Kirk Hinrich? (basketball). (Hockey's easy: Scott Clemmensen is the only Iowan ever to make the NHL...)
Birthplace can be wildly inaccurate in a discussions of where a person is from. Is Edgar Martinez a New Yorker? Is Roger Clemens an Ohioan? Is Dominique Wilkins a Frenchman? Danny Graves Vietnamese? Is Ed Porray from the sea? You gotta dig a little deeper than place of birth. Michael Jordan is not from New York. He's from North Carolina.
31, Galileo of San Francisco has Joe DiMaggio, OJ Simpson and Hank Luisetti, though DiMaggio did not graduate.
The city question is more interesting but also basically resolves to NYC and Chicago and LA since they have more teams.
If the question is adult hometown, I assume--horrifying as it is to say--that it is Orlando by a mile since so many great athletes have settled there for some reason that is unknown to me.
For childhood home, state makes more sense. The issue of birth is a big one since counting Michael Jordan and Melo on the NYC team seems bizarre. But guys at that level, it's pretty easy to correct for. Jordan counts in North Carolina, Melo in Maryland.
He could probably make more. If we're assuming no cap, no luxury tax; the Nets had a team salary, including the tax, of something like $190 million last year.
Philly: Del Ennis, Wilt, Vince Papale(?)
It makes it real tough if you say that the person had to actually grown up in the city, not the burbs.
edit: OK, coached them for 2 years, and then broadcast them for 30
NY baseball would definitely be Gehrig, right?
For hoops, it is Dr. J--Roosevelt is basically the city but it was just 3 seasons with the Nets. Too bad the Knicks turned toward that trade!
If you count Melo--I really think he's a Baltimore guy--he could surpass Dr J in all time value as an NY basketball player if he re-signs.
Football, that's hard? Andy Robustelli if you count Stamford, CT as the metro area?
Donora, PA might have the most WAR per capita.
Well, San Pedro has a population of 185,000. Donora, 4700.
EDIT: You snooze, you lo . . . end up paying for soft drinks.
It's never produced an inner-circle all-time great like Aaron or Satchel, so there's that aspect. It defies the odds that it's never even produced a Hall of Famer! Although of course Sosa has a HOF statline, and Cano is not out of the question.
Re: NY born and played: Testaverde's gotta be a candidate for that, no? Or Wayne Chrebet?
LeBron has led the playoffs in Win Shares the last 4 years in a row & six of the last eight. Obviously he was also MVP of this years NBA finals but they don't give that award to you if your team-mates suck.
What really sucks that NBA is a team game, and the best players can't win games all by themselves. I mean except Michael Jordan, who was so valuable that the Bulls went 55-27 and to eastern conference finals without him the year he was "retired".
I remember LeBron's first run in Cleveland, where morons ripped him for passing the ball in key spots to wide open team-mates instead of forcing up bad shots. They wanted him to be Jordan, but were too dumb to remember all the big passes Michael made when doubled to win championships.
Not sure if this is sarcasm or not, but Jordan famously dished to Steve Kerr to take and make the winning shot in game 6 of the 1997 finals
I was going to mention Paxson as well, as I remembered Jordan feeding him, but according to Wiki, it was Horace Grant.
Certainly not Dwayne Wade or Chris Bosh, at least this year.
George Mikan played professionally in Chicago but in the NBL, not the NBA (which didnt exist). Then there is Derrick Rose, but I suppose the jury is still out. Greatest Chicago guy ever has to be Garnett, though you also have Isiah Thomas, Mikan, Tim Hardaway, Dwyane Wade, Anthony Davis.
Oscar Charleston/Mordecai Brown, Larry Bird/Oscar Robertson, and probably Rod Woodson.
My favorite Indiana fact is that it gave the world Eugene Debs and the John Birch Society.
Kentucky is awful--Pee Wee Reese or maybe Jim Bunning, Wes Unseld, and Paul Hornung or Dermontti Dawson
Oh, yeah -- Barkley. Forgot about him when I was trying to come up with a list for where I live now. Best I could up with off the top of my head were Chuck Person or Robert Horry (who I now see was born in Maryland, anyway).
It's not a ridiculous concept for the NBA.
(one of those last 3 is not like the others)
It absolutely is ridiculous, it doesn't matter whether it was NBA, NFL or fry cook, a maximum salary concept is utterly and totally unamerican and wrong.
But in the real sports, MLB, the highest paid player makes 30mil a year, but there is no rule preventing them from paying 50, 75 or higher if the team wanted. Even assuming the soft cap in baseball was a hard cap, that still means they could pay the best player 100 mil and still have enough money to fund two Houston Astros teams.
Do elite NBA players really sign for (significantly) less than the maximum, like everyone is demanding Carmelo Anthony do? It would seem absurd for a player to do this, unless he can make up the difference in endorsements or something.
If I were Anthony I would tell the fans to go scratch, that I'm signing for the maximum, as it's not your money and it's not my job to put a team around me; it's the job of management/ownership to build a team and to coach it right.
Ty Cobb, Gordie Howe, Barry Sanders.
Game over
If I were Anthony I would tell the fans to go scratch, that I'm signing for the maximum, as it's not your money and it's not my job to put a team around me; it's the job of management/ownership to build a team and to coach it right.
Thereby reducing whatever endorsement income he might otherwise get to absolute zero. But what the hell, it's the "principle" of the thing, isn't it?
That is money that Suarez gave to Liverpool in exchange for them spending $40M to free him from Ajax and give him a nice salary instead of waiting for free agency.
Point is, players can always wait out the contract and get a nice big bonus instead of sharing the upside. But are three or four years at a measly 50K a week and not being at most glamorous club worth it?
I didn't know Gordie Howe played basketball. And if you want to got with "3 great athletes from 3 different sports who played in the state", I don't see how the Michigan 3 get past Bonds, Magic/Kareem, and Gretzky.
Guys who have signed for less than the max (while deserving it):
(Famously) LeBron, Wade and Bosh
Duncan
Nowitzki
Pierce and Garnett took less than the max in 2010 (Pretty sure without checking)
I think there are a few more examples. Tends to be veterans, though. Some talk of Durant not taking a max when he's up in two years.
Jordan drove, dished to Grant who was about 2 feet from the basket but was Horace Grant, Grant out to Paxson.
Scared the bejesus out of me watching on TV since Paxson wasn't in the picture. Camera was focused on Jordan then Grant and all you saw was the pass heading nowehere. With me screaming "Noooo!!", the camera panned out as the pass came towards the camera. I was quite relieved when Paxson came into frame. "Ohhhh..."
Was expecting this to devolve into replacement level, etc. discussion. For MLB, replacement level is set at about a 300 winning percentage and it's rarely been achieved. But as recently as 1999-00, the Clippers had a win %age under 200 and their worst ever was 146 (12-70) in 86-87. The TWolves were under 200 just 5 years ago and also in 91-92.
So replacement level in basketball would seem to be around a 150 wp, call it a bit worse at 11 wins to make math easier. An average team would be 41 wins. So that would be 6 WAR per full slot for an average player.
Of course nobody plays every minute of every game although somebody like LeBron will come close. He's averaged nearly 40 minutes per game for his career. So an average player in 40 minutes conveniently comes to 5 WAR ... or arguably still 6 WAR if we assume the other 8 minutes are played by a replacement level player.
Anyway, point being the average NBA player is already 3-4 WAR ahead of an average MLB player due to a lower replacement level and being 1/5th of the team on the court rather than 1/9th (or whatever).
Still, LeBron being worth 20+ WAR seems maybe a bit of a stretch. For that to be true, LeBron plus an average team would have to win 56+ games. The Heat won 54 last year although -- not an NBA fan at all -- squizzing at the rest of their roster, that might be a below-average team without LeBron (a lot of the roster is 32 or older).
Oh, they have a "win shares" measure on bb-r that puts LeBron's best season at 20 WS, doing it twice. Just adjusting for 1/5 vs. 1/9 brings him down to about Trout/Mays/etc. in total WAR terms but of course in half as many games. Make the adjustment for replacement level, opportunities (offense runs through him) and that probably brings him down to the best of Ruth, Walter Johnson, Gooden, probably still a bit better than Bonds's best.
Or Russell/Bird, Orr and Ruth/Williams (if Wayne qualifies for LA, then Babe should in Boston).
It was a very unique moment in Bulls history because it marked the first time that Jordan played basically no role at all in an attempt at a game winner.
(one of those last 3 is not like the others)
Devo. Are we not men?
Or Russell/Bird, Orr and Ruth/Williams (if Wayne qualifies for LA, then Babe should in Boston).
And then there's Brady to fill out Mt. Beanmore.
If Gretzky/Ruth are disqualified on grounds players can only appear for the state they did their most work, then Mass. probably wins a Big 4. If not, then California adding Rice (or Montana for the QB-obsessed) to the aforementioned trio would earn the honors.
And it's relatively easy to get many athletes to do this. I mean we are talking about money at a level that is kind of an accounting fiction and most athletes are insanely competitive.
Which still doesn't mean that the very top players aren't putting a ton of money back in the pockets of ownership.
Honesty is a component of being principled, yes.
And the point of my "I'm taking the max" plan was that he was getting the max and therefore not as worried about endorsements anyway.
Thereby reducing whatever endorsement income he might otherwise get to absolute zero. But what the hell, it's the "principle" of the thing, isn't it?
Honesty is a component of being principled, yes.
Yeah, "honesty". You love that word, don't you?
But what a crock. There's not a snowball's chance in hell that you'd follow your own advice if you were in Anthony's shoes. You'd hire a ghostwriter and give out some mealymouthed statement just like they all do when they play hardball with negotiations.
And the point of my "I'm taking the max" plan was that he was getting the max and therefore not as worried about endorsements anyway.
Except that neither you nor Anthony would embellish your decision by deliberately insulting your fan base, which is why your original statement was complete BS.
And Rocco Baldelli!
The War per capita leaders will always be small town which produced a HOFer. For example, Sam Crawford with 75 WAR came from Wahoo, NB, a town of under 5,000 now, and just over 1,000 when he was born. Walter Johnson from Humbolt, KS, pop 2,000. Ty Cobb came from Narrows, GA, which isn't even a town.
NBA: Kevin Johnson
MLB: Stan Hack (might be passed by Dustin Pedroia at some point)
NFL: Ted Bruschi
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