Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Saturday, July 21, 2012

Fangraphs: New Wild Cards and the Playoff-Probability Curve

Under the old rules, teams needed only to get into the playoffs to make the division round, so getting to the 90-win threshold had a very high marginal value. Under the new rules, teams can get into the postseason at about 87 wins, but they’re not guaranteed a spot in the division series unless they win their division. That takes about 93 wins. Therefore, wins No. 87 through 92 are less important than they used to be — but wins below 87 and above 92 are more important.

To sum up, teams that win 88 or fewer games are better off in 2012 because they have a better chance of making the division series than they used to. Teams that win 89 games or more are worse off because there’s now the possibility they have to play-in to the division series — something they previously might not have had to do. This effect extends all the way into the 100-plus win teams. Remember the 2001 A’s? They won 102 games, but finished second in the American League West, behind the 116-win Mariners. In the new playoff system, Oakland would have had to play 85-win Minnesota in a one-game playoff.

You can argue how that game would have turned out, but there is no question that the A’s would have had one fewer chance making it to the divisional round playing the Twins than they would have by simply hopping on a plane.

bobm Posted: July 21, 2012 at 01:48 PM | 0 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: playoffs, wild card

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Darren
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogYankees President: Dellin Betances’ Arbitration Filing “Had No Bearings In Reality”
(30 - 6:48am, Feb 19)
Last: Bote Man

NewsblogMike Trout lands atop Top 100 Right Now list | MLB.com
(29 - 5:20am, Feb 19)
Last: Joyful Calculus Instructor

NewsblogOT - December 2016 NBA thread
(2041 - 4:33am, Feb 19)
Last: Rob_Wood

NewsblogOTP 13 Feb. 2017: Football and Politics
(2217 - 3:13am, Feb 19)
Last: DJS, the Digital Dandy

NewsblogHeyman: Cardinals And Yadier Molina Have Preliminary Extension Talks
(2 - 11:22pm, Feb 18)
Last: asinwreck

NewsblogDeadspin: Here's a reminder that Mookie Betts is legitimately great at bowling
(11 - 10:27pm, Feb 18)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogFormer D-backs GM Dave Stewart regrets trading Dansby Swanson, calls firing unfair
(7 - 9:39pm, Feb 18)
Last: Jose is El Absurd Pollo

Sox TherapyThird Aid
(12 - 8:27pm, Feb 18)
Last: Jose is El Absurd Pollo

Newsblog2017 World Baseball Classic rosters: Posey, Stanton, McCutchen, headline Team USA
(27 - 8:17pm, Feb 18)
Last: Jose is El Absurd Pollo

NewsblogBlake Swihart Appears To Have A Case Of The Yips
(17 - 7:05pm, Feb 18)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogTexas Rangers: After almost killing someone, spending 3 years in prison, how Rangers' Matt Bush is trying to reassemble his life | SportsDay
(90 - 6:50pm, Feb 18)
Last: manchestermets

NewsblogJ.D. Martinez 'not proud' after finishing last among defensive RFs
(6 - 6:47pm, Feb 18)
Last: Bote Man

NewsblogCarter Capps Delivery Is New, Still Basically Against The Rules
(28 - 6:23pm, Feb 18)
Last: Brian

NewsblogWho's in Command Here?!?
(3 - 5:43pm, Feb 18)
Last: gehrig97

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 2001 Discussion
(13 - 5:43pm, Feb 18)
Last: Chris Fluit

Page rendered in 0.1073 seconds
45 querie(s) executed