Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Saturday, July 21, 2012

Fangraphs: New Wild Cards and the Playoff-Probability Curve

Under the old rules, teams needed only to get into the playoffs to make the division round, so getting to the 90-win threshold had a very high marginal value. Under the new rules, teams can get into the postseason at about 87 wins, but they’re not guaranteed a spot in the division series unless they win their division. That takes about 93 wins. Therefore, wins No. 87 through 92 are less important than they used to be — but wins below 87 and above 92 are more important.

To sum up, teams that win 88 or fewer games are better off in 2012 because they have a better chance of making the division series than they used to. Teams that win 89 games or more are worse off because there’s now the possibility they have to play-in to the division series — something they previously might not have had to do. This effect extends all the way into the 100-plus win teams. Remember the 2001 A’s? They won 102 games, but finished second in the American League West, behind the 116-win Mariners. In the new playoff system, Oakland would have had to play 85-win Minnesota in a one-game playoff.

You can argue how that game would have turned out, but there is no question that the A’s would have had one fewer chance making it to the divisional round playing the Twins than they would have by simply hopping on a plane.

bobm Posted: July 21, 2012 at 01:48 PM | 0 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: playoffs, wild card

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Harveys Wallbangers
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogBrian Kenny: HALL OF FAME'S ANTI-RECENCY BIAS
(42 - 2:12pm, Feb 11)
Last: Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama

NewsblogDeveloping The baseballr Package For R – The Hardball Times
(1 - 2:12pm, Feb 11)
Last: Pat Rapper's Delight

NewsblogOTP - 2016 February 8: There’s baseball, politics … and real problems
(1337 - 2:10pm, Feb 11)
Last: Sugar Bear Blanks

NewsblogKeith Law: 2016 ranking of all 30 farm systems (INSIDER)
(33 - 2:08pm, Feb 11)
Last: Jose Remains The Most Absurd Thing on the Site

NewsblogMLB's top five smartest offseason moves | MLB.com
(27 - 2:06pm, Feb 11)
Last: Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad)

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 2-11-2016
(27 - 1:57pm, Feb 11)
Last: Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee)

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - February 2016
(668 - 1:57pm, Feb 11)
Last: Moses Taylor, Optimist

NewsblogEx-MLB commissioner Bud Selig to teach at Arizona State's law school
(34 - 1:38pm, Feb 11)
Last: Ron J

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1990 Discussion
(29 - 1:36pm, Feb 11)
Last: ThickieDon

NewsblogThe Crack in the Defensive Spectrum
(37 - 1:33pm, Feb 11)
Last: AROM

NewsblogOT: Soccer Thread - February 2016
(125 - 1:30pm, Feb 11)
Last: frannyzoo

NewsblogThe Uncertain Timetable for Cord-Cutting in Baseball's Future
(61 - 1:20pm, Feb 11)
Last: Greg Pope

NewsblogHall of Fame voters exhibit a clear anti-recency bias.
(5 - 1:17pm, Feb 11)
Last: JRVJ

NewsblogLourdes Gurriel, Yulieski Gurriel defect Cuba | MLB.com
(24 - 12:57pm, Feb 11)
Last: Cabbage

NewsblogStick to Sports? NEVER! The Intersectionalist Manifesto – HardballTalk
(254 - 12:34pm, Feb 11)
Last: You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR)

Page rendered in 0.3147 seconds
45 querie(s) executed