Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Saturday, July 21, 2012

Fangraphs: New Wild Cards and the Playoff-Probability Curve

Under the old rules, teams needed only to get into the playoffs to make the division round, so getting to the 90-win threshold had a very high marginal value. Under the new rules, teams can get into the postseason at about 87 wins, but they’re not guaranteed a spot in the division series unless they win their division. That takes about 93 wins. Therefore, wins No. 87 through 92 are less important than they used to be — but wins below 87 and above 92 are more important.

To sum up, teams that win 88 or fewer games are better off in 2012 because they have a better chance of making the division series than they used to. Teams that win 89 games or more are worse off because there’s now the possibility they have to play-in to the division series — something they previously might not have had to do. This effect extends all the way into the 100-plus win teams. Remember the 2001 A’s? They won 102 games, but finished second in the American League West, behind the 116-win Mariners. In the new playoff system, Oakland would have had to play 85-win Minnesota in a one-game playoff.

You can argue how that game would have turned out, but there is no question that the A’s would have had one fewer chance making it to the divisional round playing the Twins than they would have by simply hopping on a plane.

bobm Posted: July 21, 2012 at 01:48 PM | 0 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: playoffs, wild card

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
1k5v3L
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOTP - July 2015: Winning the Political Game: Politics is More Like Baseball Than Football
(1178 - 1:40pm, Jul 07)
Last: zonk

NewsblogRobinson Cano's trying year: Lingering illness, grandfather's death test him
(2 - 1:40pm, Jul 07)
Last: Famous Original Joe C

NewsblogAngels tried convincing Red Sox to help them trade for Josh Reddick
(22 - 1:38pm, Jul 07)
Last: snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster)

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1907 Discussion
(6 - 1:37pm, Jul 07)
Last: DL from MN

NewsblogOT: Soccer June 2015
(1048 - 1:36pm, Jul 07)
Last: Juilin Sandar to Conkling Speedwell (Arjun)

NewsblogSale fans 6 in complete-game win over Jays | MLB.com
(17 - 1:35pm, Jul 07)
Last: SoSHially Unacceptable

NewsblogJustin Turner cites philosophical differences for Mets departure
(5 - 1:33pm, Jul 07)
Last: Srul Itza

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - July 2015
(661 - 1:32pm, Jul 07)
Last: Famous Original Joe C

NewsblogFull All Star Team Rosters
(62 - 1:31pm, Jul 07)
Last: bbmck

NewsblogPerhaps the Phillies just got bad and have stayed bad
(15 - 1:31pm, Jul 07)
Last: JRVJ

NewsblogVideo: Must C: Lester's first hit | MLB.com
(2 - 1:30pm, Jul 07)
Last: Jeltzandini

NewsblogFraley: Nearly two years out of baseball, Rangers prospect Jurickson Profar facing tough road to recovery | Dallas Morning News
(3 - 1:22pm, Jul 07)
Last: BDC

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 7-7-2015
(8 - 1:20pm, Jul 07)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogNotes: Rangers will need to get creative to move Choo | FOX Sports
(8 - 12:35pm, Jul 07)
Last: Batman

NewsblogFewer walks and bunts, more shifts among midseason trends - MLB
(16 - 12:32pm, Jul 07)
Last: cardsfanboy

Page rendered in 0.1540 seconds
48 querie(s) executed