Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Saturday, July 21, 2012

Fangraphs: New Wild Cards and the Playoff-Probability Curve

Under the old rules, teams needed only to get into the playoffs to make the division round, so getting to the 90-win threshold had a very high marginal value. Under the new rules, teams can get into the postseason at about 87 wins, but they’re not guaranteed a spot in the division series unless they win their division. That takes about 93 wins. Therefore, wins No. 87 through 92 are less important than they used to be — but wins below 87 and above 92 are more important.

To sum up, teams that win 88 or fewer games are better off in 2012 because they have a better chance of making the division series than they used to. Teams that win 89 games or more are worse off because there’s now the possibility they have to play-in to the division series — something they previously might not have had to do. This effect extends all the way into the 100-plus win teams. Remember the 2001 A’s? They won 102 games, but finished second in the American League West, behind the 116-win Mariners. In the new playoff system, Oakland would have had to play 85-win Minnesota in a one-game playoff.

You can argue how that game would have turned out, but there is no question that the A’s would have had one fewer chance making it to the divisional round playing the Twins than they would have by simply hopping on a plane.

bobm Posted: July 21, 2012 at 01:48 PM | 0 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: playoffs, wild card

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOTP 25 September 2017: CC Sabathia won’t visit the White House if the Yankees win the World Series
(590 - 12:32pm, Sep 26)
Last: Joe Bivens Will Take a Steaming Dump

NewsblogOT-NBA off season thread
(2512 - 12:30pm, Sep 26)
Last: There are a lot of good people in alt-Shooty

NewsblogSilverman: Yankees-Red Sox Is Exactly What MLB Postseason Needs
(32 - 12:30pm, Sep 26)
Last: Mark Armour

NewsblogHow rapidly shrinking Detroit Tigers payroll could speed rebuild | MLive.com
(9 - 12:29pm, Sep 26)
Last: Nasty Nate

NewsblogYankees Aaron Judge sets MLB rookie HR record | MLB.com
(6 - 12:20pm, Sep 26)
Last: Scott Ross

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 9-26-2017
(7 - 12:12pm, Sep 26)
Last: Batman

NewsblogOlney: Derek Jeter must make impossible decision about Giancarlo Stanton's future - Buster Olney Blog- ESPN
(71 - 11:53am, Sep 26)
Last: snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster)

Newsblog24 years ago, Nolan Ryan pitched in his final game - Houston Chronicle
(34 - 11:46am, Sep 26)
Last: donlock

NewsblogOT - August/September 2017 College Football thread
(260 - 11:43am, Sep 26)
Last: 2 dudes are better than STIGGLES; i'm both of em

Gonfalon Cubs15 To Go
(107 - 11:35am, Sep 26)
Last: Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington

NewsblogFrancona ... points to Tomlin in rotation for ALDS
(17 - 11:29am, Sep 26)
Last: snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster)

NewsblogThe case for Jose Altuve as the American League MVP, and a look at the rest of the contenders
(85 - 10:55am, Sep 26)
Last: dlf

Sox TherapyRoster Thoughts
(14 - 10:46am, Sep 26)
Last: Morton's Fork

NewsblogThe Braves in 2018: Snitker could return, but much will change | Mark Bradley blog
(5 - 9:36am, Sep 26)
Last: Rickey! the first of his name

NewsblogTaking Back the Ballparks - Tampa Bay Rays
(30 - 9:36am, Sep 26)
Last: Fernigal McGunnigle

Page rendered in 0.1306 seconds
47 querie(s) executed