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Monday, July 23, 2012

FanGraphs: Q&A: Tony Perez, an RBI approach to the HoF

“I wasn’t trying to get a hit. I just wanted to get the run in.”...and the Brennaman’s lived happily ever after.

Tony Perez...“The year I hit 40 home runs [1970] was the year I got more bases on balls [83]. I got on base more that season, but that was because the pitchers were being more careful. They weren’t pitching to me that year. I never walked a lot. I was a free swinger. Anything I could reach, I’d swing at. Sometimes that gave me troubles and sometimes that helped me. That’s the way it was. I was that type of hitter.

“The guys in front of me got on base a lot. My philosophy on that was, when I had men on base, I’d concentrate more on the pitch I‘d swing at. I knew the pitcher was in trouble when he faced me. He had to give me a pitch with nobody out, or one out. He had to get me out, and the next guy out, and we had a pretty good lineup. I was looking for a good pitch to hit and most of the time I’d get it. And I’d hit it.

“I loved having guys on base in front of me. I never cared about my average. I never cared about strikeouts. I just cared about my RBIs. When I saw men on base, I saw a chance for an RBI and I wanted to get it, no matter what. Ididn’t care if it was with a ground ball. I wasn’t trying to get a hit. I just wanted to get the run in.”

Repoz Posted: July 23, 2012 at 08:20 AM | 15 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: history, reds

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1. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: July 23, 2012 at 08:52 AM (#4189559)

I don't have a problem with Perez thinking that way, but it would have been better if some manager had explained to him that unless it's the bottom of the ninth and we're down by one or tied with less than two out, you help the team more by getting on base than you do with an RBI groundout or sac fly.

I might still be oversimplifying things, though; there's value, when a runner's on third and there aren't two outs, in just making damn sure you put the ball in play.

2. Mayor Blomberg Posted: July 23, 2012 at 11:37 AM (#4189701)

If the knock on RBI is that it's a stat that depends on the players in front of one, that's a reasonable reservation; as long as wins are determined by run differential, getting the run in is a reasonable strategy unless ones chasing balls in the dirt and other unhittable pitches.

3. JJ1986 Posted: July 23, 2012 at 12:31 PM (#4189739)

I don't think it's fair that a run scoring groundout (non-DP) is scored differently from a sacrifice fly. Both accomplish exactly the same thing (although the ground is probably more likely to move other runners up).

4. bobm Posted: July 23, 2012 at 02:51 PM (#4189850)

[3] I don't think it's fair that a run scoring groundout (non-DP) is scored differently from a sacrifice fly. Both accomplish exactly the same thing (although the ground is probably more likely to move other runners up).

ISTM that it's more difficult to hit the fly ball which all but guarantees the RBI than the ground ball. IMO it's not much different than losing the RBI on a GIDP.

5. vortex of dissipation Posted: July 23, 2012 at 04:23 PM (#4189993)

Perez ranked in the NL top ten for sacrifice flies seven times in ten years between 1967 and 1976, which certainly supports his story.

6. adenzeno Posted: July 23, 2012 at 05:44 PM (#4190070)

If you had watched the Mets leave a small countries worth of runners on 3rd Sun(or anytime) because they struck out, you would appreciate an RBI groundout... :-)

7. bobm Posted: July 23, 2012 at 11:55 PM (#4190520)

[5]

Career Sacrifice Flies, from BB REF:

                                               
Rk               Player  SF    G    PA  RBI GDP
1          Eddie Murray 128 3026 12817 1917 315

2            Cal Ripken 127 3001 12883 1695 350

3           Robin Yount 123 2856 12249 1406 217

4          Frank Thomas 121 2322 10075 1704 226
4            Hank Aaron 121 3298 13941 2297 328

6          Ruben Sierra 120 2186  8782 1322 193
6          George Brett 120 2707 11625 1596 235

8       Rafael Palmeiro 119 2831 12046 1835 232
8           Rusty Staub 119 2951 11229 1466 297

10         Andre Dawson 118 2627 10769 1591 217

11           Don Baylor 115 2292  9401 1276 196

12      Brooks Robinson 114 2896 11782 1357 297

13       Gary Sheffield 111 2576 10947 1676 235

14         Paul Molitor 109 2683 12167 1307 209

15         Mike Schmidt 108 2404 10062 1595 156

16           Tony Perez 106 2777 10861 1652 268

17           Joe Carter 105 2189  9154 1445 132
17     Carl Yastrzemski 105 3308 13992 1844 323

19         B.J. Surhoff 104 2313  9106 1153 169
19          Gary Gaetti 104 2507  9817 1341 236
19            Al Kaline 104 2834 11596 1583 271

22            Jeff Kent 103 2298  9537 1518 224
22          Jeff Conine 103 2024  7782 1071 182
22            Amos Otis 103 1998  8247 1007 158

25       Ken Griffey Jr 102 2671 11304 1836 199

8. bobm Posted: July 24, 2012 at 12:15 AM (#4190530)

If the knock on RBI is that it's a stat that depends on the players in front of one, that's a reasonable reservation;

For this reason, I wish the B-R "bases occupied" batting splits would show the calculated percentage of baserunners converted to RBI (ie excluding the 1 RBI per home run).

Tony Perez, from B-R

 Split BR/PA      G    PA   AB   HR  RBI    BR (RBI-HR)/BR
  RISP  1.62   2095  3408 2876  108 1237  5524  20%
   ---     0   2477  5528 5100  188  188     -    
Men On  1.40   2524  5328 4673  191 1464  
   1--     1   1630  1920 1797   83  227  1920   8%
   -2-     1   1003  1162  978   47  273  1162  19%
   --3     1    404   414  333   12  145   414  32%
   12-     2    726   792  742   27  273  1584  16%
   1-3     2    462   430  371   11  212   860  23%
   -23     2    309   326  215    5  140   652  21%
   123     3    272   284  237    6  194   852  22%
 Total  0.69  10856             379 1652  7444  17%

9. bobm Posted: July 24, 2012 at 12:40 AM (#4190537)

By the same method as in [8], I calculate that for both Barry Bonds and Carl Yastrzemski, the total (RBI-HR)/BR percentage is 16%.

Here is a neat related item that I found in a quick Google search:

Baseball Musings Day By Day Database, RBI Percentage
RBI Percentage is 100*(RBI-HR)/Runners On
Select start and end dates, then click Submit to see ranking of players.
Default dates are first and last games in the database.

Start Date: 04/04/1974
End Date: 07/22/2012

Sort by: RBI PCT
Descending *
Ascending

Minimum Runners On Base: 6000

[split into groups of 10 for legibility only]

          Player  Runners On  RBI  HR   RBI Pct.
   Manny Ramirez        6995 1831 555 18.24
    George Brett        7183 1596 317 17.81
     Dave Parker        6318 1450 330 17.73
    Frank Thomas        6705 1704 521 17.64
  Alex Rodriguez        7470 1936 643 17.31
   Harold Baines        7204 1628 384 17.27
     Bobby Abreu        6151 1347 286 17.25
    Jeff Bagwell        6312 1529 449 17.11
 Garret Anderson        6329 1365 287 17.03
 Ken Griffey Jr.        7202 1837 630 16.76

      Joe Carter        6267 1445 396 16.74
   Dave Winfield        8124 1820 461 16.73
   Chipper Jones        6814 1601 463 16.70
        Jim Rice        6435 1451 382 16.61
       Jeff Kent        6872 1518 377 16.60
  Gary Sheffield        7113 1676 509 16.41
    Eddie Murray        8651 1917 504 16.33
    Andre Dawson        7043 1587 437 16.33
      Sammy Sosa        6481 1667 609 16.32
    Julio Franco        6256 1194 173 16.32

    Paul Molitor        6582 1307 234 16.30
    Ruben Sierra        6279 1322 306 16.18
 Rafael Palmeiro        7917 1835 569 15.99
    Mike Schmidt        6246 1526 528 15.98
   Luis Gonzalez        6822 1439 354 15.90
     Barry Bonds        7771 1996 762 15.88
     Robin Yount        7309 1406 251 15.80
       Jim Thome        6855 1694 611 15.80
     John Olerud        6213 1230 255 15.69
     Chili Davis        6513 1372 350 15.69

    Fred McGriff        6783 1550 493 15.58
 Bernie Williams        6248 1257 287 15.52
  Ivan Rodriguez        6639 1332 311 15.38
  Cal Ripken Jr.        8272 1695 431 15.28
     Gary Gaetti        6440 1341 360 15.23
     Derek Jeter        6597 1223 247 14.79
    Johnny Damon        6136 1137 235 14.70
    Dwight Evans        6717 1346 374 14.47
      Wade Boggs        6261 1013 118 14.29
    Craig Biggio        6232 1175 291 14.18

    Steve Finley        6285 1167 304 13.73
Rickey Henderson        6301 1115 297 12.98
     Ozzie Smith        6009  793  28 12.73
    Omar Vizquel        6828  946  80 12.68

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/RBIPCT.py

10. bobm Posted: July 24, 2012 at 12:51 AM (#4190543)

2012 Year to Date "RBI PCT"

281 batters have at least 100 base runners on.

median RBI PCT = 14.06%

Top 25

Rk               Player  R-O RBI HR  RBI Pct.
 1        Josh Hamilton  231 78 28 21.65
 2          Kyle Seager  218 58 11 21.56
 3          Jason Kubel  234 71 21 21.37
 4       Hector Sanchez  104 24  2 21.15
 5       J.P. Arencibia  161 49 15 21.12
 6  Yuniesky Betancourt  133 35  7 21.05
 7        Michael Trout  155 47 15 20.65
 8       Miguel Cabrera  272 79 23 20.59
 9     Andrew McCutchen  215 66 22 20.47
10         Andre Ethier  246 61 11 20.33

11       Miguel Montero  218 53  9 20.18
12      Carlos Gonzalez  233 66 19 20.17
13        Wilin Rosario  120 39 15 20
14         Tyler Colvin  142 41 13 19.72
15 William Middlebrooks  158 42 11 19.62
16       Prince Fielder  273 68 15 19.41
17         David Wright  269 66 14 19.33
18          Allen Craig  171 47 14 19.3
19       Alexei Ramirez  219 44  2 19.18
20      Yoenis Cespedes  168 45 13 19.05

21      Adrian Gonzalez  260 58  9 18.85
22       Skip Schumaker  101 19  0 18.81
23         Brandon Inge  181 44 10 18.78
24           Luke Scott  178 45 12 18.54
25        Daniel Murphy  232 46  3 18.53
25         Colby Rasmus  232 60 17 18.53

11. bobm Posted: July 24, 2012 at 12:55 AM (#4190545)

[10]

Bottom 27

 Rk           Player  R-O RBI HR RBI Pct.
255     Bryce Harper  181 26  8 9.94
256      Derek Jeter  202 27  7 9.9
257      Ian Stewart  122 17  5 9.84
258   Maicer Izturis  112 12  1 9.82
259   Trevor Plouffe  194 38 19 9.79
260     Jesus Flores  143 17  3 9.79
261  Brian Bogusevic  159 21  6 9.43
262     Johnny Damon  142 17  4 9.15
263      Rod Barajas  121 19  8 9.09
264      Mike Napoli  211 33 14 9
265   Everth Cabrera  134 14  2 8.96
266 Cliff Pennington  147 16  3 8.84
267       Josh Thole  136 13  1 8.82
268    Joaquin Arias  149 14  1 8.72
269   Russell Martin  161 24 10 8.7
270   Jeff Francoeur  219 27  8 8.68
271 Nate Schierholtz  106 14  5 8.49
272      Ryan Raburn  134 12  1 8.21
273     Ryan Hanigan  114 11  2 7.89
274 Yorvit Torrealba  117 12  3 7.69
275 Emilio Bonifacio  111  8  0 7.21
276      Jose Tabata  116 11  3 6.9
277   Zachary Cozart  154 20 10 6.49
278     Jemile Weeks  186 14  2 6.45
279  Daniel Descalso  129 11  3 6.2
280     Jarrod Dyson  119  7  0 5.88
281     Nyjer Morgan  111  5  2 2.7

12. bobm Posted: July 24, 2012 at 01:02 AM (#4190549)

2012 Top 27 home run hitters (min. 18) with minimum 100 baserunners, sorted by RBI PCT

 Rk                Player  R-O RBI HR RBI Pct.
  1         Josh Hamilton  231 78 28 21.65
  3           Jason Kubel  234 71 21 21.37
  8        Miguel Cabrera  272 79 23 20.59
  9      Andrew McCutchen  215 66 22 20.47
 12       Carlos Gonzalez  233 66 19 20.17
 42         Albert Pujols  238 60 18 17.65
 44         Adrian Beltre  244 61 18 17.62
 46           Mark Trumbo  225 66 27 17.33
 49         Pedro Alvarez  215 58 21 17.21
 53        Carlos Beltran  281 69 21 17.08
 58            Ryan Braun  231 65 26 16.88
 61          Billy Butler  233 58 19 16.74
 63         Mark Teixeira  277 65 19 16.61
 73           David Ortiz  215 58 23 16.28
 75     Edwin Encarnacion  252 67 26 16.27
 81       Alfonso Soriano  223 54 18 16.14
 84             Adam Dunn  230 65 28 16.09
 86         Jose Bautista  237 65 27 16.03
 96             Jay Bruce  252 59 19 15.87
 98       Josh Willingham  285 68 23 15.79
105     Giancarlo Stanton  200 50 19 15.5
135 Jarrod Saltalamacchia  182 44 18 14.29
175            Adam Jones  211 50 22 13.27
208         Robinson Cano  283 56 22 12.01
211     Curtis Granderson  228 53 26 11.84
240          Josh Reddick  233 46 21 10.73
259        Trevor Plouffe  194 38 19 9.79

13. bobm Posted: July 24, 2012 at 01:07 AM (#4190553)

2012 Top 28 RBI hitters (min. 58) with minimum 100 baserunners, sorted by RBI PCT

Rk            Player R-O RBI HR RBI Pct.
 1     Josh Hamilton  231 78 28 21.65
 2       Kyle Seager  218 58 11 21.56
 3       Jason Kubel  234 71 21 21.37
 8    Miguel Cabrera  272 79 23 20.59
 9  Andrew McCutchen  215 66 22 20.47
10      Andre Ethier  246 61 11 20.33
12   Carlos Gonzalez  233 66 19 20.17
16    Prince Fielder  273 68 15 19.41
17      David Wright  269 66 14 19.33
21   Adrian Gonzalez  260 58  9 18.85
26      Colby Rasmus  232 60 17 18.53
33   Freddie Freeman  247 58 13 18.22
42     Albert Pujols  238 60 18 17.65
44     Adrian Beltre  244 61 18 17.62
46       Mark Trumbo  225 66 27 17.33
49     Pedro Alvarez  215 58 21 17.21
53    Carlos Beltran  281 69 21 17.08
58        Ryan Braun  231 65 26 16.88
61      Billy Butler  233 58 19 16.74
63     Mark Teixeira  277 65 19 16.61
67  Brandon Phillips  279 58 12 16.49
73       David Ortiz  215 58 23 16.28
75 Edwin Encarnacion  252 67 26 16.27
79     Matt Holliday  290 63 16 16.21
84         Adam Dunn  230 65 28 16.09
86     Jose Bautista  237 65 27 16.03
96         Jay Bruce  252 59 19 15.87
98   Josh Willingham  285 68 23 15.79

14. SandyRiver Posted: July 24, 2012 at 04:24 PM (#4191085)

Would be nice to filter out BB - don't think a player should be "penalized" (in RBI %) for getting on base. Of course, RBIs from bases-loaded walks would also have to be deducted. Maybe show % both with/without BB.

15. bobm Posted: July 25, 2012 at 02:19 AM (#4191582)

[14] Would be nice to filter out BB - don't think a player should be "penalized" (in RBI %) for getting on base. Of course, RBIs from bases-loaded walks would also have to be deducted. Maybe show % both with/without BB.

I do not know if it is worth the effort. Walks accounted for 9.9% of Tony Perez's PA with men on, and 9.6% of the total baserunners during his PA. I calculated that career split for Tony Perez from B-R event data:

PA Outcome       RBI RBI-HR   BR (RBI-HR)/BR
    non BB      1447   1256 6728   18.7%
        BB        17     17  716    2.4%
     Total      1464   1273 7444   17.1%

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Monday, July 23, 2012

FanGraphs: Q&A: Tony Perez, an RBI approach to the HoF

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