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Tuesday, March 05, 2013

FanGraphs: Sloan Analytics: Cuban, McCracken, Jedlovic

Where Voros raises a pink flag…

Voros McCracken [creator of DIPS]: “Just because everyone knows OBP is important doesn’t mean OBP isn’t important. Just because we learned something a long time ago doesn’t mean we should unlearn it. We should keep it and add to it. There are a lot of people who are itching to do the next new thing. That’s great, it’s just that mindset can cause you to forget some of the basics.

“Not to pint fingers at any team, but to a certain extent the Mariners did that. They got so wrapped up in talking advantage of fielding statistics that they forgot they should have a first baseman with an on-base percentage over .280. Maybe that’s unfair. If they were here, they may interrupt me and say no, that’s not the way it happened. But my perception is that sometimes you can forget about the basics when you’re pursuing something new.

“You might say to yourself, ‘I want a stat that can measure this.’ Then video technology comes out and gives you the stat you wanted to measure. There is a tendency to think, “Ooh, I’ve been waiting for this, and now I’ve got it, and it’s the greatest stat in the world.” But you haven’t even looked at it yet. You haven’t looked at what it actually says — what its weaknesses are. There’s a hazard there. You want to know more things than your competition. What you don’t want is to know something your competition doesn’t, and it’s wrong. If everybody is wrong about something it doesn’t hurt you too bad, but if you’re the only one, you have 29 teams taking advantage of your mistake.

“Scouting is still an important a smell test. If scouts all say someone is a terrible defender, and a stat says he’s the best defender in the world, the truth is probably somewhere in between. Scouts say things for a reason, and you shouldn’t dismiss that.

“If you come up with a new number, and somebody says they don’t like it, I don’t think it’s helpful to just keep pointing at it, over and over again. ‘Well, that’s the number.’ Every number a guy like me comes up with it, you have be skeptical of. You have to be extremely skeptical. That’s the quickest way to knowledge. If you don’t believe something, figure out if it’s true or not. It’s a basic scientific approach, to a certain extent. Falsifiable hypotheses, that sort of thing.”

Repoz Posted: March 05, 2013 at 09:07 AM | 6 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics

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   1. Chicago Joe Posted: March 05, 2013 at 10:37 AM (#4381017)
“Just because everyone knows OBP is important doesn’t mean OBP isn’t important.

“Not to pint fingers at any team,

Sounds like Voros was fingering some pints, rather than pinting some fingers.
   2. greenback is the clenched fist of truth Posted: March 05, 2013 at 12:12 PM (#4381111)
Scouting is still an important a smell test.

Sure, say that after I drafted Steve Andrade in the first round of my fantasy league.
   3. Don Malcolm Posted: March 05, 2013 at 12:30 PM (#4381135)
Scouting is still an important a smell test.

These typos are making Voros sound like a "dese and dose" kinda guy. Just what we need: a sabermetrician who moonlights as a hit man.

And let me suggest that he take this opportunity to change his handle here to read (at least temporarily!): "Voros McCracken, Finger Pinter."

Which is better than the other two variations that immediately come to mind... :-)

[EDIT: Note to Repoz-- "12XU".]

   4. shoewizard Posted: March 06, 2013 at 09:42 AM (#4381812)
Sounds like Voros was fingering some pints

Been known to happen. ;)
   5. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: March 06, 2013 at 10:33 AM (#4381858)

   6. Der-K: downgraded to lurker Posted: March 11, 2013 at 12:06 AM (#4386021)
Anyone up for Sloan post-mortem? I'm sure there's stuff to talk about... I was interested in this for instance.

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