Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Sunday, October 14, 2012

FanGraphs: Sullivan: Yankees Lose Game, Yankees Lose Captain

Screw the Thomson Reuters Impact Factor…we have Jeff Sullivan!

On Derek Jeter Being Injured…

yt

Emotionally, psychologically, whatever, this is one hell of a big deal. I mean, it’s Derek Jeter. Captain, face of the franchise, world icon. It’s almost impossible to imagine a Yankees team without him. It was also almost impossible to imagine a Yankees team without Mariano Rivera. Rivera got hurt on May 3, when the Yankees were 13-11. The Yankees finished 82-56. The argument isn’t that the Yankees wouldn’t have been better with Rivera healthy; the argument is that the Yankees obviously weren’t crippled by his absence.

With Jeter, you could make it as simple as just looking at his WAR, if you wanted to. Three years ago, he was worth 2.8 wins. Then 2.3 wins, then 3.2 wins, for an average of three wins per 162 games. Let’s say he has a replacement-level substitute. Against an average team, you’re talking about roughly a two-percent drop in win expectancy. That is, this year, the Yankees won 58.6 percent of their games. Subtract three, and they would’ve won 56.8 percent of their games. It’s a meaningful difference, but it isn’t a dramatic difference. The Yankees didn’t just lose Robinson Cano or CC Sabathia.

As hard as it is to process the Yankees without Jeter, and as hard as it is to process the idea that downgrading from Jeter to Jayson Nix isn’t devastating, that’s the truth.

...I think there’s a very compelling argument to be made that Derek Jeter’s playoff replacement at shortstop should be Alex Rodriguez. I’m not in a position to be able to know that for sure, and obviously, it would be challenging for Rodriguez to move over overnight. The Yankees can’t really afford to have Rodriguez make some crucial defensive mistakes in Game 2, after having lost Game 1. It’s safer to go with Nix, and it might well be wiser to go with Nix. I don’t think Girardi even gave the Rodriguez idea much consideration.

And one can imagine how things might’ve gone for Rodriguez in New York if he went hitless and also made some miscues in the field. The Rodriguez idea is just an idea; the reality is going to look a lot more like Jayson Nix, filling in for Derek Jeter. This is going to be weird. It’s probably not going to be crippling, but it’s most definitely going to be weird.

Repoz Posted: October 14, 2012 at 09:16 AM | 0 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: injury, sabermetrics, yankees

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Dock Ellis on Acid
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOTP 2016 June 27: Republican comeback after eight years? Yeah, on the baseball diamond
(208 - 6:07pm, Jun 27)
Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

NewsblogOMNICHATTER 6-27-16
(5 - 6:02pm, Jun 27)
Last: MNB

Gonfalon CubsSlumping and Busting
(14 - 5:59pm, Jun 27)
Last: Dag Nabbit at ExactlyAsOld.com

NewsblogWhy Mark McGwire would make a great manager someday | FOX Sports
(3 - 5:56pm, Jun 27)
Last: Fadeaway: The Baseball History Podcast

NewsblogOT: NBA Playoffs Thread 2016
(6134 - 5:39pm, Jun 27)
Last: Yardape

NewsblogOT: 2016 Summer Soccer Thread
(1128 - 5:37pm, Jun 27)
Last: AuntBea

NewsblogJose Reyes must demonstrate sincere remorse in return to Mets - NY Daily News
(58 - 5:28pm, Jun 27)
Last: Fadeaway: The Baseball History Podcast

NewsblogESPN: Team president Randy Levine on suggestions that Yankees should become sellers at trade deadlin
(12 - 5:25pm, Jun 27)
Last: Fadeaway: The Baseball History Podcast

Newsblog40 years ago, Mark (The Bird) Fidrych was 'some kind of unbelievable'
(8 - 5:21pm, Jun 27)
Last: Fadeaway: The Baseball History Podcast

NewsblogFadeaway: Episode 3: See That He Behaves
(9 - 5:13pm, Jun 27)
Last: Fadeaway: The Baseball History Podcast

NewsblogYanks must have nearing cutoff date to buy out A-Rod, Teixeira | New York Post
(38 - 4:48pm, Jun 27)
Last: Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora

NewsblogThis kid at the TCU-Coastal Carolina CWS game is our new comedy hero | MLB.com
(3 - 4:29pm, Jun 27)
Last: My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto

NewsblogOTP 2016 June 20: I prefer baseball, America's pastime over politics, America's blood sport
(2050 - 3:49pm, Jun 27)
Last: Chip

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1994 Ballot
(1 - 3:46pm, Jun 27)
Last: DL from MN

NewsblogYankees to sign deal with StubHub to be official ticket resale partner
(3 - 3:11pm, Jun 27)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

Page rendered in 0.2550 seconds
47 querie(s) executed