Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Sunday, October 14, 2012

FanGraphs: Sullivan: Yankees Lose Game, Yankees Lose Captain

Screw the Thomson Reuters Impact Factor…we have Jeff Sullivan!

On Derek Jeter Being Injured…

yt

Emotionally, psychologically, whatever, this is one hell of a big deal. I mean, it’s Derek Jeter. Captain, face of the franchise, world icon. It’s almost impossible to imagine a Yankees team without him. It was also almost impossible to imagine a Yankees team without Mariano Rivera. Rivera got hurt on May 3, when the Yankees were 13-11. The Yankees finished 82-56. The argument isn’t that the Yankees wouldn’t have been better with Rivera healthy; the argument is that the Yankees obviously weren’t crippled by his absence.

With Jeter, you could make it as simple as just looking at his WAR, if you wanted to. Three years ago, he was worth 2.8 wins. Then 2.3 wins, then 3.2 wins, for an average of three wins per 162 games. Let’s say he has a replacement-level substitute. Against an average team, you’re talking about roughly a two-percent drop in win expectancy. That is, this year, the Yankees won 58.6 percent of their games. Subtract three, and they would’ve won 56.8 percent of their games. It’s a meaningful difference, but it isn’t a dramatic difference. The Yankees didn’t just lose Robinson Cano or CC Sabathia.

As hard as it is to process the Yankees without Jeter, and as hard as it is to process the idea that downgrading from Jeter to Jayson Nix isn’t devastating, that’s the truth.

...I think there’s a very compelling argument to be made that Derek Jeter’s playoff replacement at shortstop should be Alex Rodriguez. I’m not in a position to be able to know that for sure, and obviously, it would be challenging for Rodriguez to move over overnight. The Yankees can’t really afford to have Rodriguez make some crucial defensive mistakes in Game 2, after having lost Game 1. It’s safer to go with Nix, and it might well be wiser to go with Nix. I don’t think Girardi even gave the Rodriguez idea much consideration.

And one can imagine how things might’ve gone for Rodriguez in New York if he went hitless and also made some miscues in the field. The Rodriguez idea is just an idea; the reality is going to look a lot more like Jayson Nix, filling in for Derek Jeter. This is going to be weird. It’s probably not going to be crippling, but it’s most definitely going to be weird.

Repoz Posted: October 14, 2012 at 09:16 AM | 0 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: injury, sabermetrics, yankees

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Sheer Tim Foli
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogStick to Sports? NEVER! The Intersectionalist Manifesto – HardballTalk
(13 - 3:09am, Feb 08)
Last: Drexl Spivey

NewsblogWANTED: New home for American League baseball team | Tampa Bay Times
(13 - 2:36am, Feb 08)
Last: Pat Rapper's Delight

NewsblogOTP - 2016 February 1: Donald Trump spends $450,000 on red baseball caps in just three months
(2597 - 2:12am, Feb 08)
Last: Joe Kehoskie

NewsblogOT: 2016 NFL Playoffs Thread
(2159 - 1:32am, Feb 08)
Last: Shredder

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - February 2016
(222 - 1:13am, Feb 08)
Last: Norcan

NewsblogThe Cespedes gamble: The biggest MLB position-change risks | New York Post
(10 - 12:45am, Feb 08)
Last: SoSHially Unacceptable

NewsblogBip Roberts Was The First Bip
(11 - 12:09am, Feb 08)
Last: Gonfalon Bubble

NewsblogJonny Gomes: Sayonara, For Now: Why I’m Playing In Japan
(22 - 11:41pm, Feb 07)
Last: villainx

NewsblogSuddenly Frugal Yankees Playing Long Game With Eye On Bryce Harper
(71 - 11:36pm, Feb 07)
Last: Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB)

NewsblogSchoenfield: Top 5 Hall of Fame classes
(47 - 11:27pm, Feb 07)
Last: bjhanke

NewsblogPadres say they’re not rebuilding, plan to compete in 2016 | SanDiegoUnionTribune.com
(8 - 11:11pm, Feb 07)
Last: the Hugh Jorgan returns

NewsblogOT: Soccer Thread - February 2016
(66 - 10:58pm, Feb 07)
Last: Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play

NewsblogChecking the facts ... yup, MLB still has greater parity than the NFL
(42 - 3:46pm, Feb 07)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogSunday Notes: Seratelli’s Sayonara, Kaminsky’s Curve, Cards, ARod Managing, more | FanGraphs Baseball
(4 - 3:34pm, Feb 07)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogScott Boras, other baseball minds propose anti-tanking measures - Buster Olney Blog- ($Insider$)
(71 - 1:11pm, Feb 07)
Last: Cargo Cultist

Page rendered in 0.2667 seconds
47 querie(s) executed