Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Sunday, October 14, 2012

FanGraphs: Sullivan: Yankees Lose Game, Yankees Lose Captain

Screw the Thomson Reuters Impact Factor…we have Jeff Sullivan!

On Derek Jeter Being Injured…

yt

Emotionally, psychologically, whatever, this is one hell of a big deal. I mean, it’s Derek Jeter. Captain, face of the franchise, world icon. It’s almost impossible to imagine a Yankees team without him. It was also almost impossible to imagine a Yankees team without Mariano Rivera. Rivera got hurt on May 3, when the Yankees were 13-11. The Yankees finished 82-56. The argument isn’t that the Yankees wouldn’t have been better with Rivera healthy; the argument is that the Yankees obviously weren’t crippled by his absence.

With Jeter, you could make it as simple as just looking at his WAR, if you wanted to. Three years ago, he was worth 2.8 wins. Then 2.3 wins, then 3.2 wins, for an average of three wins per 162 games. Let’s say he has a replacement-level substitute. Against an average team, you’re talking about roughly a two-percent drop in win expectancy. That is, this year, the Yankees won 58.6 percent of their games. Subtract three, and they would’ve won 56.8 percent of their games. It’s a meaningful difference, but it isn’t a dramatic difference. The Yankees didn’t just lose Robinson Cano or CC Sabathia.

As hard as it is to process the Yankees without Jeter, and as hard as it is to process the idea that downgrading from Jeter to Jayson Nix isn’t devastating, that’s the truth.

...I think there’s a very compelling argument to be made that Derek Jeter’s playoff replacement at shortstop should be Alex Rodriguez. I’m not in a position to be able to know that for sure, and obviously, it would be challenging for Rodriguez to move over overnight. The Yankees can’t really afford to have Rodriguez make some crucial defensive mistakes in Game 2, after having lost Game 1. It’s safer to go with Nix, and it might well be wiser to go with Nix. I don’t think Girardi even gave the Rodriguez idea much consideration.

And one can imagine how things might’ve gone for Rodriguez in New York if he went hitless and also made some miscues in the field. The Rodriguez idea is just an idea; the reality is going to look a lot more like Jayson Nix, filling in for Derek Jeter. This is going to be weird. It’s probably not going to be crippling, but it’s most definitely going to be weird.

Repoz Posted: October 14, 2012 at 09:16 AM | 0 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: injury, sabermetrics, yankees

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
aleskel
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogWhere Did the Great Hollywood Baseball Movie Go?
(138 - 7:52am, May 27)
Last: ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick

NewsblogSan Francisco Giants: Analyzing Jeff Samardzija's bad luck | SI.com
(19 - 7:44am, May 27)
Last: Hysterical & Useless

NewsblogModern Baseball Writing | Articles | Bill James Online
(45 - 7:26am, May 27)
Last: Hysterical & Useless

NewsblogOTP 22 May 2017: George W. Bush photobombs a sports reporter
(1538 - 7:01am, May 27)
Last: Lassus

NewsblogClayton Kershaw dominant, lowers career WHIP under 1
(3 - 5:32am, May 27)
Last: the Hugh Jorgan returns

NewsblogA look at what all 30 teams can do with MLB's free agent mega-class of 2018-19
(44 - 1:40am, May 27)
Last: He who brought the butter dish to Balshazar (CoB)

NewsblogOT - March 2017 NBA thread
(4367 - 12:52am, May 27)
Last: Athletic Supporter wants to move your money around

NewsblogFiveThirtyEight: Pitchers Are Slowing Down To Speed Up
(26 - 12:44am, May 27)
Last: TVerik, who wonders what the hell is "Ansky"

NewsblogBefore we start, my safeword is OMNICHATTER, for May 26, 2017
(28 - 11:07pm, May 26)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogRachel Robinson To Join Husband In Hall Of Fame
(2 - 9:31pm, May 26)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogFirst-Place Yankees Aren’t Faring Nearly as Well at the Ticket Office
(27 - 9:16pm, May 26)
Last: Tin Angel

NewsblogInside Baseball AL Notes | Royals Slow Playing Their Free Agents
(19 - 8:26pm, May 26)
Last: Walt Davis

Gonfalon CubsHapp
(43 - 7:09pm, May 26)
Last: Moses Taylor, Unwavering Optimist

NewsblogBig League Talent Harder to Find in 2017
(2 - 5:38pm, May 26)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogOT: March-April 2017 Soccer Thread
(547 - 5:34pm, May 26)
Last: He who brought the butter dish to Balshazar (CoB)

Page rendered in 0.2437 seconds
47 querie(s) executed