Something is wrong with Tim Lincecum. After giving up five runs in his first start this year, things got worse for him last night. In just 2.1 innings, Lincecum allowed six runs on nine hits while walking two and striking out only one batter. While it’s usually not smart to make conclusions based on just 7.2 innings, Lincecum has already shown some reasons for folks to be concerned. And unless something changes, Lincecum could be in for a rough season.
...With his diminished velocity, Lincecum has also seen his peripherals drop. In his first full season, Lincecum struck out 28.6% of the batters he faced. That number dropped to 24.4% last year. That’s still pretty exceptional, but the number is declining. What’s more concerning is Lincecum’s walk rate. Lincecum’s BB% fell to a career low 7.5% in 2009, but it jumped to 9.6% last year. And even though he has lost velocity in the past and succeeded, you have to wonder how long he can be effective if his fastball averages 90 mph the whole season.
...While Lincecum has seen some signs of decline in the past couple years, this latest velocity change could be a sign that something is seriously wrong. Unless he regains his lost velocity, or he alters his repertoire, his run as an elite pitcher might be in jeopardy.
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How did he train this offseason? Hasn't he gone back and forth between unconventional and conventional training? From my recollection, under his dad's influence he used to train with a lot of long-tossing, which I though Righetti et al were not in favor of.
3. Mefisto
Posted: April 12, 2012 at 12:52 PM (#4104964)
This isn't new. Lincecum's peripheral numbers have been in decline for 2 years.
That's a stupid article, as I said in the comments over there. It links to a Jeff Zimmerman article to prove that "pitcher velocity stabilizes after just one start." If you click through to the Zimmerman article, you find an article about pitcher velocity after pitchers return from the DL. As far as I know, Lincecum is not returning from the DL.
As to this not being "new," there's something odd to Lincecum's stats. The velocity is dropping. If it's truly the result of his not doing good offseason conditioning or long tossing, he should get back to it.
5. Willie Mayspedes
Posted: April 12, 2012 at 02:17 PM (#4105046)
#4 Wrong! He can only regain .8 MPH on his fastball this season.
That is all...
6. BWV 1129
Posted: April 12, 2012 at 07:43 PM (#4105323)
Fwiw, Trevor Bauer, who has possibly studied Lincecum's motion more than even Lincecum has, tweeted after Lincecum's first start that there had been changes in his mechanics in the past few years.
7. Gonfalon Bubble
Posted: April 12, 2012 at 08:11 PM (#4105330)
I'm not even a Chad Bradford Wannabe wannabe, but I could see that his follow-through last night was not the same as before.
8. streak of perros
Posted: April 12, 2012 at 08:22 PM (#4105335)
Ehh, it's early and he was pitching at Coors. Let him get a coupla more starts under his belt.
9. boteman
Posted: April 13, 2012 at 01:17 AM (#4105411)
Didn't Lincecum stop eating fast food or otherwise change a fundamental aspect of his regimen this past offseason? Maybe he should start eating at McDonald's again.
Or find better wacky weed.
10. Bhaakon
Posted: April 13, 2012 at 05:20 AM (#4105420)
Rumor had it that he dropped 10-15 lbs. Maybe he donated both kidneys, because he was pretty mush bone and gristle already.
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1. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 12, 2012 at 09:39 AM (#4104778)As to this not being "new," there's something odd to Lincecum's stats. The velocity is dropping. If it's truly the result of his not doing good offseason conditioning or long tossing, he should get back to it.
That is all...
Or find better wacky weed.
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