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1. salvomania Posted: March 12, 2013 at 03:04 PM (#4387010)Arenado is having a strong spring, after having hit four homers in three games last week. He could very well be the Rockies' third baseman this year.
Baseball America
Sickels
BB Prospectus
MLB.com
the SBNation community project list
fangraphs
rotoworld
bleacher report
???
If I simply merged the top 2 (which I personally judge as industry standards), does anyone think I would lose much insight by NOT incorporating the findings of the rest? Does anyone find speacial insight from any of the others?
Keith Law. BTF needs to come up with one, only it needs to be completely nonsensical.
So, let's get to it, peeps...
1) Jurickson Profar - Even without the bonus points for his name, everyone says he's awesome
2) Matt Bush - Maturity problems are behind him?
3) Wilmer Flores - Can't fight the BTF met fans voters...
4) Andy Marte - he's DUE!
5) Oscar Taveras - loses points because all the other Taveras' have sucked, gains points because STL's inherent bioengineering technology advantage over all other teams
6) Dan Vogelbach - Because it will be an absolute shame if he doesn't make it
7) Robert Bundy - Wait... he's got a brother?
8) Jerome Brown - We're not selling jeans here... are we?
9) Jacob Turner - Satan should have never allowed Loria to use public financing when he sold his soul
10) Billy Hamilton - We think he'll suck, but come on... SLIDING Billy!
It's the Rockies, so yeah, they're in trouble.
26) that russian kid from Eastbound & Down season 3
If by "in some trouble" you mean "likely to lose 90-plus games," I don't disagree. That's all the more reason to throw some kids out there and see if they can play.
Please ell me #6 is a Mariner...
For a site of math geeks, I'm surprised that this egregious error has gone uncorrected for so long. That would have to be TL AND ten dogs or TL himself**, to suck up the ELEVEN places from 14 to 24, inclusive.
** If Lasorda is truly dumber than 10 dogs, then maybe he can use up all 11 places.
Yeah, have you seen the incumbents?
Though since the Rockies will stink again I'd rather start Arenado in AAA and delay his service time clock.
Actually, #6 is Gerrit Cole. The Mariners' top prospect, Mike Zunino, shows up at #12, with Tajuan Walker one slot behind.
Really, once you get below about 20, you're just throwing darts.
From TFA:
The White Sox don't have an underrated system; it's legitimately bad.
Sanchez hasn't demonstrated the ability to drive the ball much at all; he has three homeruns and 54 extra-base hits in 1151 minor league PAs. He's going to have to show that major league pitchers won't knock the bat out of his hands.
-- MWE
His potential is right there in the name
That makes Grant Balfour the worst.
32) Satan
33) Albert Belle is wondering what he has to do with this prospect list.
35) Cookie Monster
37) Jeremy Giambi
Yea, but on the other hand at 21 years old pretty much everyone agrees his glove is ready now -- above average at 2nd and passable at SS. Yea he lacks power but his hit skill is excellent and as a 20 year old he showed it hitting 322/378/403 across 3 levels, mostly high A and AA. In a tough hitting environment at AA Birmingham he had an 886 OPS, granted it was average driven in a small sample -- but in the non silly ball era middle infielders that can hit 290/340/400 are a valued commodity.
Sanchez seems a favorite of saber and traditional types alike. The biggest knock on him is lack of power and track record. Sickels has him at a "B" FWIW.
I don't pretend to know if he's the 64th best prospect in baseball (and the fangraphs article alludes to such by placing fellow White Sox Courtney Hawkins one better) but Sanchez isn't just some toolsy kid this guy saw play once. Yea it's dart throwing but that's true for more than just Sanchez.
Whoever would put him that high is a real hack that should set himself on fire.
There are way, way more out there than that. I've seen a few of the "compilation" spreadsheets, and they are legion. The vast majority of these lists are, however, completely worthless. They are just different people on the internet providing no specific insight. The only ones I consider worthwhile:
1a: Baseball America - highly professional, crowd sourced industry scouting info. The gold standard for raw info and in-depth coverage.
1b: Sickels - Single voice rankings, risk-balanced approach, balanced mixture of scouts/stats, reflective on past successes/failures, been putting out prospect books longer than BA even.
3: Law: Single voice rankings, based heavily on in-person scouting; not as reliable or comprehensive as the other two, but gives a useful perspective
The other lists are basically redundant:
BP: At this point, basically just a poor man's BA; the list is crowd sourced among the (mostly) random prospect guys BP has assembled, guys who aren't journalists and don't have the same sources as BA. I thought Goldstein's unique voice and massive contact list added something unique to the discussion, but they haven't given Parks that same control of the top 100 list, and he doesn't have the experience or the same level of industry sources anyway. The team by team write-ups are more useful and this list could be more relevant again in the future.
MLB.com: I think the methodology still comes from some form of scout polling, but that has led to weird lists. Most scouts have specific coverage areas and don't see every prospect, so while they have good individual info, ranking them all isn't exactly within their scope. Again, the methodology isn't 100% clear. Essentially, though, you are getting the crowd sourcing of BA, but put together somewhat oddly by a single editor.
SBNation community list: What random internet people think; wholly derivative, and prone to over exuberance on a number of guys. Better than some other random internet lists due to crowd sourcing.
FanGraphs: Who cares? I have no idea what they claim to be adding to the discussion, or why we should value their opinion on prospect info.
Rotoworld/Rotoanalysis/BaseballHQ/Bleacherreport/BullpenBanter/TopProspectAlert/Scout.com/ScoutingBook/etc.: Mostly just noise. None of these have made a compelling case as to why their opinions should matter.
39) colin farrell
40) Who else? Octavio Dotel.
I think its all Marc Hulett, although I could be wrong. He goes out and watches games and videos like I guess Sickels does, but I don't think he's been doing it as long or as well as John.
Also, I think Scout.com recently hired McDaniel, who seems to know what he's talking about.
FanGraphs: I think it's all Hulet as well; wouldn't know.
#38: The success rate for players like Sanchez, whose offensive value is almost entirely based on hits and walks, is pretty low. Every so often you get someone like Luis Castillo who can fashion a career out of that skill set, but in this day and age it's pretty rare.
-- MWE
This is the one baseball annual that I keep out during the year for reference. Very good at creating a snapshot of a player who I don't know anything about.
42. Jackie Rexrode
I suppose there have been times when I've surprised myself, but this seems like an odd way for the author to characterize rankings that he drew up.
I guess he's saying that these players are far higher on his list than on other top-100s.
Who takes over during Monsieur Hulet's holiday?
Who are the last two Rockies to play 150+ games at the age of 22?
One is easy, the other "shocking"
I like reading Parks; not only is he a good writer, he has his own perspective, and I find that useful. He's similar to Law in that going and seeing a player plays a big role in his thought process. But the top 100 isn't just his list; it is the consensus opinion of the whole "prospect staff," most of whom have not shown any reason for me to care what they think.
Mayo is a journalist who aggregates scouting info. I've never gotten the sense that he's adding anything unique of his own (not necessarily a bad thing). That's not worthless, but it's redundant if you already have BA. His rankings end up fairly different than other outlets, but different doesn't mean useful. Again, the individual team writeups are more interesting, since it can clue you in on guys that have piqued some scout's imagination somewhere, but we are just talking about the top 100. When it comes to value ranking my prospects in my preposterously deep dynasty league, those top 100 lists don't really add anything beyond BA and Sickels.
Hulet... I've been reading him off and on since his Baseball Analyst days, and I've never found him particularly useful. I mean, his info is fine, I suppose, but it has always struck me as just a watered down version of what you get elsewhere, even in his team writeups. He's like the megablocks of prospect guys. He's fine, I guess, if that's all you have; but if you have legos, there is really no point to him. He's redundant.
I don't find "different" choices to be useful as sleeper pick unless the guy naming them as a sleeper has some cachet. I mean, anybody can just throw some crap at the wall and see what sticks.
Since no one guessed, I'll say Tulo and Neifi Perez.
From BBRef, Timo's 0.8 > Neifi's 0.7, in 1/3 of the games.
In a humorous side-note, King Kauffman sponsors Neifi.
EDIT: Measurement is WAR, in case that isn't obvious.
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