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Thursday, February 04, 2010

Fanhouse: Verlander Agrees to $80M Extension With Tigers

The Tigers and Justin Verlander have agreed to a five-year, $80 million extension, a source told the Associated Press. Though not officially announced, the deal is expected to be completed before the end of the week. The deal both avoids arbitration and keeps Verlander in Detroit three years into his free agency.

While the extension was being negotiated, it was expected that Verlander would use Felix Hernandez’s five-year, $78 million contract as a template for what he wanted from Detroit. In the end, the Tigers went beyond the deal Seattle gave to Hernandez by $2 million to lock their ace up long-term.

That’s really the most surprising aspect of the signing; Hernandez is younger than Verlander (24 compared to Verlander’s 27) with a slight edge in every career stat except for won-loss record and a dominant 2009 season by Hernandez that was better than any Verlander’s put up to this point in his career. If anything, it seemed likely that Verlander’s deal would come in just under the $78 million that the Mariners gave Hernandez.

Thanks to The Barfoot Contessa.

Repoz Posted: February 04, 2010 at 05:42 AM | 8 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: business, tigers

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   1. John DiFool2 Posted: February 04, 2010 at 06:30 AM (#3453790)
First!
   2. Tripon Posted: February 04, 2010 at 06:33 AM (#3453791)
Not really, there's a good argument that based on prime years, that the Tigers are going to get more out of Verlander's age 28-32 years than what the M's will get out of King Felix's 25-29 years.
   3. Teheran's Uranium Enriched Missiles Posted: February 04, 2010 at 07:02 AM (#3453805)
Not really, there's a good argument that based on prime years, that the Tigers are going to get more out of Verlander's age 28-32 years than what the M's will get out of King Felix's 25-29 years.

Pitchers have different peaks from hitters, I think. Or there was some study to this effect.

$2 mil in the greater scheme of things is a pittance, and if that made their ace happy, and kept him in Detroit, more power to them. I can't see the Tigers willing to lose Verlander over an argument for 5/75 opposed to 5/80.
   4. Rich Rifkin Posted: February 04, 2010 at 07:11 AM (#3453809)
The averages of the Chone, Bill James and Marcel projections for 2010 look a little better for Hernandez than they do for Verlander, though ERA (the main difference) might be narrower when adjusting for the park factors. I would think 2011 would also look more favorable for Hernandez, if the 2010 projections bear any resemblence to actuality.

Here are the 2010 medians of those 3 projections systems:
Wins & Losses: V 14-10; H 14-10
ERA: V 3.68; H 3.37
IP: V 200; H 200
SO: V 196; H 183
BB: V 66; H 65
HR: V 19; H 17
   5. Vaux, A.B.D. Posted: February 04, 2010 at 07:18 AM (#3453813)
I think Hernandez's deal was below market even for an arb/early free-agent buyout. I didn't get why he agreed to it. But I approve of this contract, obviously.
   6. Joe Bivens, Idiot Posted: February 04, 2010 at 02:25 PM (#3453869)
Maybe playing in that city deserves a premium. I've never been there, so I don't know for sure.
   7. DanG Posted: February 04, 2010 at 02:48 PM (#3453887)
Everyone's arm is different, of course, but isn't there some concern that Hernandez will break down early from the heavy use in use early 20's? Last four years:
FH    Pitches    Pitches
Age   perStart   Thrown
20        99      3056
21       100      2997
22       103      3193
23       107      3618

JV    Pitches    Pitches
Age   perStart   Thrown
23        99      2963
24       105      3354
25       107      3525
26       112      3921 

Or is Hernandez assumed to be a couple years older than his official age?
   8. WallyBackmanFan Posted: February 04, 2010 at 02:49 PM (#3453888)
I think Hernandez's deal was below market even for an arb/early free-agent buyout. I didn't get why he agreed to it.


I don't agree with this. Using Verlander's midpoint for this year (8.2)+13 for next year + 69/3 gets him just over 90/5. So, he gave up 2.5/year (on the high side) to lock it up two years out and be free again still in his 20s. He had to take that deal.

Verlander may have dug in to squeeze out every last dollar because he's less likely than Felix to have another huge contract.

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