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Friday, November 10, 2017

Fansided: Two Teams Take Lead in Stanton Stakes

The Giancarlo Stanton trade rumors are heating up, with two front-runners emerging from the mix. Now, you would think it would be the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels, or even the “all-in” Washington Nationals.

One team from the West coast and the other from the Midwest could be the heavy favorites to land the highly sought after slugger.

Not to be arch about it, as the answers are large as life in the tags.

fra paolo Posted: November 10, 2017 at 11:37 AM | 39 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cardinals, giants, marlins, trade rumors

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   1. Astroenteritis Posted: November 10, 2017 at 12:36 PM (#5574111)
Please Giancarlo, stay in the National League! Would like to see him go to the Giants.
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 10, 2017 at 12:42 PM (#5574113)
No real info here on what the deal might look like.
   3. A triple short of the cycle Posted: November 10, 2017 at 01:02 PM (#5574128)
What was the Primer consensus on Stanton's value, will he be worth the rest of his contract? I guess if you've got the money...
   4. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: November 10, 2017 at 01:10 PM (#5574137)
My dream would be for some zillionaire to offer Stanton half a billion on the side if he'd sign with the Orioles for the lowest allowable salary.
   5. Tin Angel Posted: November 10, 2017 at 01:28 PM (#5574157)
Nightengale says the Giants "have the money to pull it off" but I just don't see how. With Cueto opting in they are already at their payroll limit. Not to mention that have virtually nothing to trade to acquire Stanton. Panik and/or Belt plus some minor league arms doesn't seem like it would be close to enough.
   6. Nasty Nate Posted: November 10, 2017 at 01:35 PM (#5574164)
My dream would be for some zillionaire to offer Stanton half a billion on the side if he'd sign with the Orioles for the lowest allowable salary.
Players under contract can't sign with other teams.
   7. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 10, 2017 at 01:46 PM (#5574175)
What was the Primer consensus on Stanton's value, will he be worth the rest of his contract? I guess if you've got the money...

I think he's probably worth it, but not a lot of excess value.
   8. Batman Posted: November 10, 2017 at 01:47 PM (#5574176)
My dream would be for some zillionaire to offer Stanton half a billion on the side if he'd QB the Cleveland Browns for the lowest allowable salary.
   9. Khrushin it bro Posted: November 10, 2017 at 02:14 PM (#5574198)
My dream would be for some zillionaire to give me half a billion.
   10. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: November 10, 2017 at 02:17 PM (#5574202)
My dream would be for some zillionaire to offer Stanton half a billion on the side if he'd sign with the Orioles for the lowest allowable salary.

Players under contract can't sign with other teams.


Well, I can dream, can't I?
   11. Sunday silence Posted: November 10, 2017 at 03:01 PM (#5574224)
NOw why would I think the NYY? Don't they already have a RF?
   12. TomH Posted: November 10, 2017 at 03:10 PM (#5574227)
plus how will they play him with Harper, who sources says they'll get next year?
   13. Ziggy: The Platonic Form of Russell Branyan Posted: November 10, 2017 at 03:23 PM (#5574233)
plus how will they play him with Harper, who sources says they'll get next year?


Well, I hear they need pitching.
   14. Walt Davis Posted: November 10, 2017 at 03:24 PM (#5574234)
It's 10/$295 left. I don't think he's quite worth that. The 10th year and $10 M buyout of the option on the 11th year ($35 M total) is basically the deferred payment for the very large discount the Marlins got in the first 3 years of the contract. That excess value is gone and I wouldn't pay it if I was the other team. I might chicken out and take the full value but definitely no talent going the other way in that scenario. (I WAG he'd get something in the range of 8/$240, 9/$250, maybe 10/$280 if he was FA.)
   15. Voodoo Posted: November 10, 2017 at 03:33 PM (#5574238)
plus how will they play him with Harper, who sources says they'll get next year?


I dunno about that. He named his dog Wrigley. :)
   16. Walt Davis Posted: November 10, 2017 at 04:11 PM (#5574267)
I've stored a couple of Stanton comp lists under my P-I account. I don't recall how I generated this one (other than limiting to post-expansion and through their age 27 seasons) but it's a reasonable list and here's what they did from ages 28 to 37:

Manny 44 WAR (despite horrible dWAR)
Thome 41
Helton 39
Berkman 33
Tex 28
Vlad 28
Allen 23
Rice 21
Straw 12

Stanton has more defensive value at the moment than probably anybody in that list had entering their age 28 season except maybe Vlad and Straw. Note, there are some guys who didn't age well but still put up 28+ WAR. Tex put up only 4 WAR from 33-36 and didn't play at 37; Berkman put up 9 WAR from 33-37; Vlad just 5 WAR from 33-36 and no play at 37; Helton 7 WAR from 34-37. Those declines mean that even a future like Rice or Allen wouldn't be disastrous -- you're still getting the 4-5 years of excellent production, you're just missing out on (but still paying for) the 5 years of blah. I mean sure, I'd rather pay $150 M for 5-8 WAR than for zero WAR but the latter doesn't do that much more damage to my team and the missed 5-8 WAR (over 5 years) is relatively easily replaceable cheaply.

At the current (old) $8/WAR, aging as well as Tex/Vlad will run you $225. With inflation, the next 10 years will surely come out closer to $9, maybe even $10 at which point 28 WAR will cost you about $250 to $280.

The title of my other list tells me it was based on PA/Rbat, so strictly offense. I probably set the upper bound at something a bit worse than what Stanton has done so far, this one looks post-integration. The produces a much larger list of 38, ranging from Kal Daniels (neg WAR from ages 28-37) to Mays (89). It's an overly broad comp list (Wade Boggs!). I think all of the above names are picked up and here are some new ones that seem reasonable Stanton comps:

FRobinson 52 WAR
Bagwell 52
Mathews 43
McCovey 43
Mantle 42
Killer 41
Sheffield 40 (with atrocious dWAR)
Miggy 36 (with 3 years to go)
Reggie 36
Thomas 34
Doby 28
McGriff 28
Griffey 24
Cepeda 20
Kiner 18
EDavis 12
McCutchen 7 (still 7 years to go but almost no way he posts a good total)

That's an even more promising list and some very Stanton-y hitters who even represent a bit of a downside for Stanton in terms of defensive value: Killer, Sheff, Reggie, Thomas**, McGriff, Cepeda. Stanton as 21st century Reggie seems perfect.

Once you put those lists together, you realize that Stanton's pre-33 prime is likely to be worth enough that his current deal is not outrageously generous. He only needs to age as well as Tex, McGriff, Doby, Vlad -- there's almost no reason to think he could do worse. If he can be durable and just keep mashing HRs, then even with defensive decline, he's Reggie/Killer -- perfectly believable. Even outcomes like Cepeda, Allen, Griffey, Rice wouldn't be disastrous.

Kiner, Strawberry and McCutchen are the scary names and each is perfectly believable too. But 3 names on the down side, 7-8 names on the solid side, another 5-6 names on the positive side. That's what you look for when pricing an FA deal. You do have to accept that most/all of that value is coming in the next 4-5 years so you have to judge your competitive window and not get worked up if you "waste" $150 M in years 6-10.

The tougher question is how much money do you ask the Marlins to pick up and/or what talent do you send back? My answers are some and none but I'm not a PBO who will be without a job if I don't post some wins in the next 2-3 years. (OK, somebody will hire me as asst GM or something but I'd still rather avoid the pay cut.) I'd also be more carefully assessing my chances at Harper/Machado next year, taking a good look at JD Martinez (who might give me 3 Stanton-esque years on a 5-6 year contract but cost me no talent and maybe less AAV), etc. as alternatives to trading for Stanton.

** Thomas pre-28 is not a good comp for Stanton cuz that Thomas hit 300 with power and walks. But older Thomas hit like Stanton and had no defensive value. The young Griffey is similarly not a great comp for Stanton, but older Griffey in defensive decline and missing tons of PT to injury is close to Stanton and even that version of Griffey made it to 24 WAR.
   17. Khrushin it bro Posted: November 10, 2017 at 05:19 PM (#5574315)
Stanton is very popular too. It's hard to figure out how much extra revenue he would create but it's gotta be included too.
   18. Sweatpants Posted: November 10, 2017 at 05:32 PM (#5574324)
Kal Daniels (neg WAR from ages 28-37)
In Kalvoski's defense(?), I'll point out that this was really just one season of negative WAR followed by nine seasons of zero.
   19. Elsid Posted: November 10, 2017 at 05:49 PM (#5574332)
Aren't the Dodgers freeing up a lot of payroll now? Throw in Puig who could be very popular in Miami, and maybe Pederson, and I bet something could be worked out.
   20. Zach Posted: November 10, 2017 at 05:53 PM (#5574335)
At the current (old) $8/WAR, aging as well as Tex/Vlad will run you $225. With inflation, the next 10 years will surely come out closer to $9, maybe even $10 at which point 28 WAR will cost you about $250 to $280.

I dunno. Over ten years, you've got to consider the possibility of sports media rights tanking.
   21. Tony S Posted: November 10, 2017 at 06:05 PM (#5574340)
Sigh. How frustrating it must be to be a Marlins fan. You've got a team with a real superstar (theoretically locked in for a decade) and a few other exciting young players, you've just had an OK season, you've finally shed a rapacious owner, new management comes in, and...

This isn't good for the Marlins, and it isn't good for baseball.
   22. Quaker Posted: November 10, 2017 at 06:18 PM (#5574343)
Is Harper @ $400/10 a better value than what Stanton has remaining?
   23. Rally Posted: November 10, 2017 at 06:24 PM (#5574347)
Players under contract can't sign with other teams.

Well, I can dream, can't I?


No reason some billionaire can't say "Hey Angelos, you trade for Stanton and I'll reimburse you for the contract." Of course I don't expect any one to actually volunteer that.
   24. Sunday silence Posted: November 10, 2017 at 06:53 PM (#5574360)
The comparisons to hitters that Walt makes are all very interesting but when you compare body types I only see 3basemn and 1basemen e g Killebrew etc. that's what would concern me the most can someone w statons body type play RF for ten years?

The only similar body type playing OF that i recall are Kevin Mitchell and Kirby Puckett. Perhaps the next list of comps should consider those?
   25. Khrushin it bro Posted: November 10, 2017 at 06:59 PM (#5574366)
Stanton is 8 inches taller than Mitchell and 10 inches taller than Puckett. Not sure they have the same body type.
   26. cardsfanboy Posted: November 10, 2017 at 07:03 PM (#5574368)
The tougher question is how much money do you ask the Marlins to pick up and/or what talent do you send back? My answers are some and none but I'm not a PBO who will be without a job if I don't post some wins in the next 2-3 years. (OK, somebody will hire me as asst GM or something but I'd still rather avoid the pay cut.) I'd also be more carefully assessing my chances at Harper/Machado next year, taking a good look at JD Martinez (who might give me 3 Stanton-esque years on a 5-6 year contract but cost me no talent and maybe less AAV), etc. as alternatives to trading for Stanton.


I'm thinking that (assuming it's the Cardinals making the deal) they send a decent size amount of prospects to the Marlins, and probably don't have them pick up any of the salary. With the opt out year option, it's very likely Stanton bolts before the contract is up anyway.

If the Cardinals felt that the Marlins should pick up some of the contract, it would probably be by them taking on Fowler, and the Cardinals sending them 6mil or so. I don't think there is a particular need for the Marlins to cover any of the contract with the type of bidding war that is going to take place on him.

As far as prospects, I think the Cardinals would use a trade like this, as a good way to clear some of the guys who are battling it out for positions. I could see them trading Aledmys Diaz, Tyler O'Neil and Jack Flaherty and even throwing in Grichuk, Piscotty or Gyorko(the latter two would be also as a way of moving money around) (it's even conceivable that they might trade Carson Kelly and wait on Knizer to make it through the system)


From a team overall standpoint, the goal of adding Stanton would be to create an outfield of Pham/Bader/Stanton with a fourth outfielder being Grichuk/Piscotty/O'Neil(assuming the Cardinals are also able to move Fowler to someone else...and if Pham/Martinez hit the same as they did in 2017, you might fast track Sierra to have an elite defender as the fourth/fifth outfielder) If I'm the GM of the Cardinals, my roster goals this season would be
1b - Jose Martinez, 2b- Wong, ss-DeJong, 3b-Carpenter, C-Molina and Kelly, Lf- Pham, CF- Bader, RF- Stanton....It would give the team one true elite bat in Stanton, and 2-4 guys you would project to be 120-130 ops+ hitters(Carpenter, Pham, Martinez, DeJong) of course you still want to try and keep a guy like Gyorko or Grichuk around as backup if someone falters, but that is a luxury not a necessity.

The biggest problem is that the trade values on Grichuk/Piscotty/Fowler are at about the lowest they can be right now.
   27. cardsfanboy Posted: November 10, 2017 at 07:05 PM (#5574370)
I dunno. Over ten years, you've got to consider the possibility of sports media rights tanking.


The Cardinals just signed a mega tv deal, which is probably the last mega deal they'll sign, but sports media rights aren't really tanking as much as they are diversifying. Instead of having a couple of big deals, you are going to have dozens of smaller deals.
   28. Bug Selig Posted: November 10, 2017 at 08:01 PM (#5574390)
The only similar body type playing OF that i recall are Kevin Mitchell and Kirby Puckett.
Whose body are you looking at?
   29. PreservedFish Posted: November 10, 2017 at 09:51 PM (#5574435)
I'm sick of all these short fat black players like Kirby Puckett and Giancarlo Stanton and Chris Truby.
   30. Nero Wolfe, Indeed Posted: November 10, 2017 at 10:00 PM (#5574436)
For outfielders, I'd compare Stanton to Frank Howard.
   31. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: November 11, 2017 at 12:27 AM (#5574446)
Righthanded Darryl Strawberry is about the closest comp for Stanton that baseball history offers.

Doesn't help us project Stanton even a little, though, for obvious reasons.
   32. BDC Posted: November 11, 2017 at 08:43 AM (#5574455)
I finally saw Stanton in person in Arlington this summer – he's such a big guy, broad shoulders – I think Frank Howard was even larger, but he's in that range. Dave Winfield had a similar upper body and size, but longer legs. Strawberry was very tall too, but more slender. There just haven't been very many outfielders that tall, till I guess now all of a sudden there are, because Aaron Judge is definitely in the group.
   33. cardsfanboy Posted: November 11, 2017 at 09:53 AM (#5574464)
I finally saw Stanton in person in Arlington this summer – he's such a big guy, broad shoulders – I think Frank Howard was even larger, but he's in that range. Dave Winfield had a similar upper body and size, but longer legs. Strawberry was very tall too, but more slender. There just haven't been very many outfielders that tall, till I guess now all of a sudden there are, because Aaron Judge is definitely in the group.


Wouldn't Matt Holliday be a pretty decent physical comp to Stanton?
   34. BDC Posted: November 11, 2017 at 10:28 AM (#5574471)
Wouldn't Matt Holliday be a pretty decent physical comp to Stanton?

I guess so, but I get PTSD every time I think about the 2011 Cardinals, so I probably repress the thought of him.
   35. LA Podcasting Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 11, 2017 at 05:13 PM (#5574558)
Wouldn't Matt Holliday be a pretty decent physical comp to Stanton?
Was Holliday ever a plus defender? I knew he could run a bit when he was back with the Rockies, but that was a loooooong time ago.
   36. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: November 11, 2017 at 08:07 PM (#5574582)
I think the Holliday comp was for body type. here is my everlasting memory of Holliday's defense.
   37. Walt Davis Posted: November 12, 2017 at 04:52 PM (#5574743)
I don't think anybody cares (or should care) whether Stanton is able to remain a solid defensive RF for the next 10 years. Sure, he'll decline defensively and it wouldn't be surprising that a move to 1B/DH becomes necessary at some point. So what? His projected future value has little to do with his defense, it's just advantageous to him that, through age 27, he's well ahead defensively of Thomas, Manny, Sheff, Frank Howard, Ortiz, Stargell, Thome, (Ryan Howard, Mo Vaughn) and roughly equivalent to Winfield. That suggests he should age at least as well and probably better than most of those guys did in durability terms. Unfortunately, his injury history through age 27 puts that into question.

Still, the key question is will he stay healthy enough to take at least another 5000-5500 turns at bat, not where he plays in the field (or sits in the dugout) when he's not in the batter's box.

Harper 10/$400 vs. Stanton 10/$295. First question is whether we had to give up talent for Stanton too. Another question is whether we are trying to win in 2018 when Harper is not available to us.

I've never tried to comp Harper and I'm not about to start trying. Because of his inconsistency of performance and injury history, I'm not sure we even have a good comp. While Trout's overall performance is much rarer, we at least have obvious comps in Mays, Mantle, Aaron and to a lesser extent Bonds (later start to his dominance) and Griffey. But nobody springs to mind for an ERA+ pattern of 118, 133, 111, 198, 114, 157. I'm sure there must be somebody (Cesar Cedeno kinda maybe).

So what can we say? He's got about 5 full years of PT and 26 WAR so a 5-WAR player. But outside of that monster season, his average has been a 4-WAR player. Outside of that monster season, he doesn't appear to be any better at 24 than he was at 19-20.

So maybe Stanton's a reasonable comp. He never had the monster season but has been a bit more consistent, both have some injury history. Through age 24, Stanton had about 4 full seasons of PT and 21 WAR, so also about a 5 WAR player. He was then awesome but injured at 25, blah at 26, awesome and healthy at 27, performing closer to 6 WAR per full year. I don't know of any reason to expect one to age better than the other.

Will you be able to get Harper for just 10 years. It's common practice to sign FAs through age 36 but of course they're almost always older. ARod got 10 years after his age 25 season but Stanton got his contract after his age 24 season, taking him through age 37. Cano and Albert got 10 years at much older ages. Presumably if you sign Harper for 12-13 years then $40 AAV is off the table but 12/$450, 13/$480 ... much less attractive than 10/$400. But given all the stuff laid out above, will Harper get an offer as high as 10/$400 barring a big 2018?

But sticking to your parameters, it's still a tough call. The main advantage with Harper is that, even if he is Stanton, you'll be getting those 10-12 WAR at ages 26-27 while avoiding Stanton's age 36-37 (might be lucky to get 4 WAR). That would justify at least half and possibly the full amount of extra money. Still looks like a draw.

So, if no real talent goes the other way, I'll go with the lower opportunity and payroll cost of Stanton. You're not certain of acquiring either player but you can try for Stanton now and, if you fail, try for Harper later. Which is still ducking your question and having my cake and eating it too.

CFB -- on the Stanton money. I don't think he will quite be worth 10/$295 nor do I think he would quite get that much on the open market. I price him around 10/$260-270 (or if he was an FA, maybe 8/$240 then figure out the last 1-2 years of deferred payments). Conveniently enough, his age 37 salary is $25 M with a $10 M option buyout which nicely balances the $25-35 I think he's "overpaid" and it's the age 37 season I would do everything I could to not pay real money for if he was an FA.

And in terms of symmetry that I always love, that $25-35 at age 37 looks pretty much like exactly the deferred payment he's due for the great deal he gave the Marlins in the first 3 years of the contract (even with 2 of them being cheap arb years). That's surplus value a new Stanton team can't extract and there's no "rational" reason for them to have to pay for it. So every way I slice it, I should not be paying for that age 37 season. The Marlins won't see it that way and, alas, probably at least one other team won't see it that way and there may even be some willing to throw in some talent to win the auction. Then it's a matter of how much I think I need him to win over the next 3-4 years and maybe I cave.

If I am paying full freight, I definitely give no talent back. If they want to suck up some money by taking on some of my dead weight contracts, I'd be OK with that. I suspect that, if they're going to take on money, they're going to spread it out over the next 10 years rather than jump payroll now. I can also imagine a Piazza-style 3-way trade ... not at a Piazza level, thinking more that they'd be happy to take Fowler as long as they're convinced they can trade Fowler and all/nearly all of his salary elsewhere.
   38. PreservedFish Posted: November 12, 2017 at 05:00 PM (#5574744)
I'd definitely hire Walt Davis as my VP of Common Sense.
   39. Sunday silence Posted: November 13, 2017 at 11:29 AM (#5575000)
I have a question:

Is it all relevant that Stanton passed through waivers last summer? As I recall it. Does that mean no team is likely to take on his salary in Toto? Or can it be they just didn't want to deal with a no trade clause or they saw no need to pick him up for a one month run or something else....

Any opinions on hat it means?

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