Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Monday, December 02, 2013

Father Gabe Costa: Who Will Be Elected To The Baseball Hall Of Fame In 2014?

Father Gabe Costa doesn’t have a HOF vote…and the father away the better!

cb

I have listed a number “interesting” eligible candidates on this year’s lists. I have included the number of years for which they have been under consideration (just for the BBWAA), a bullet comment or two and listed a “Prediction Grade for Election in 2014” which is calibrated as follows:

A = Definite Election…if not this year, then in the very near future

B = Possible Election…if not this year, then in the foreseeable future

C = Most Probably will not be elected this year, or in the foreseeable future

D = Not without a Miracle

Repoz Posted: December 02, 2013 at 11:31 AM | 40 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hof

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: December 02, 2013 at 12:21 PM (#4608579)
Err, this guy doesn't realize the point of predictions isn't to state what you want to happen but what you believe will happen, right? Because that's the only way I can explain an A for Lee Smith, on an insanely crowded ballot with 3 years left to get in and sitting at 47.8%, and a D for Tim Raines, on his 7th appearance with a 52.2% percentage.

Nice trolling, Repoz.
   2. Long Time Listener, First Time Caller Posted: December 02, 2013 at 12:23 PM (#4608585)
So this chart is really just a personal interest survey, right?
   3. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 02, 2013 at 12:27 PM (#4608587)
Lol on this.
   4. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: December 02, 2013 at 12:30 PM (#4608592)
Funnier than Father Guido Sarducci?
   5. Rants Mulliniks Posted: December 02, 2013 at 12:35 PM (#4608597)
That's about as clueless as it gets.
   6. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: December 02, 2013 at 12:52 PM (#4608615)
Err, this guy doesn't realize the point of predictions isn't to state what you want to happen but what you believe will happen, right? Because that's the only way I can explain an A for Lee Smith, on an insanely crowded ballot with 3 years left to get in and sitting at 47.8%, and a D for Tim Raines, on his 7th appearance with a 52.2% percentage.


I think he's folding in the BBWAA time with eventual Vet's committee appearances (that's the only explanation for the Jack comment or that he doesn't know about the ballot time limit, which doesn't seem to be the case).

   7. cardsfanboy Posted: December 02, 2013 at 01:01 PM (#4608627)
I think he's folding in the BBWAA time with eventual Vet's committee appearances (that's the only explanation for the Jack comment or that he doesn't know about the ballot time limit, which doesn't seem to be the case).


Possibly, but just like the Tango prediction, I can't take anyone seriously, who thinks that Lee Smith is going to have a better chance on the vets committee than he had with the writers.

I can understand Morris on the vets committee getting a bump, but not Lee Smith, closers are already over represented in the hall, and obviously Rivera is going in, and Hoffman has a better chance than Lee Smith, and if Hoffman isn't in, I find it hard to believe people are going to put Lee Smith in, especially on what will more than likely be a crowded veteran's ballot for years to come.
   8. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: December 02, 2013 at 01:01 PM (#4608628)
What I find confusing is the "support will fade" comments on Bonds and Clemens, but then the "A" grade on Mike Piazza. I mean, for better or worse, if Piazza goes in, I think Bonds and Clemens do to. They're all in the same "Clearly HOF Players That Steroid Nannies Want To Make Use Of As An Example Of Sinful Pride" boat.
   9. cardsfanboy Posted: December 02, 2013 at 01:10 PM (#4608644)
What I find confusing is the "support will fade" comments on Bonds and Clemens, but then the "A" grade on Mike Piazza. I mean, for better or worse, if Piazza goes in, I think Bonds and Clemens do to. They're all in the same "Clearly HOF Players That Steroid Nannies Want To Make Use Of As An Example Of Sinful Pride" boat.


Not in the slightest. Bonds/Clemens are in the class of "confirmed enough as a steroid user." While Piazza is in the category of "rumored without any evidence" category.... Piazza debuted at 57% on his first ballot, vs 37% for Bonds and Clemens. Piazza is clearly going to get a jump up at some point in time as there are probably a few people who feel he isn't a "first" ballot guy for them, but I don't really see any changes for Clemens or Bonds in a positive direction. Add in that you have "known" clean users like Maddux and Griffey(2015) coming on the ballot, and it's very possible some people move their votes towards them. Of course the argument could also be made, that since they did get 37% of the vote, that it might convince some fence sitters that the stigma of a roider isn't enough and get them to vote for them. We thought that was a possibility with McGwire and it didn't really happen though, but McGwire isn't nearly as inner circle as Bonds/Clemens.
   10. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: December 02, 2013 at 01:12 PM (#4608646)
The Raines grade is the only absolute WTF on the whole list, though Lee Smith is close. And the Edgar comment is absurd.
   11. cardsfanboy Posted: December 02, 2013 at 01:22 PM (#4608659)
Agreed...career totals too low for Raines?

Raines reached base over 4000 times in his career, scored over 1500 runs in his career.... his career totals are just fine. It's whether you think an "average" fielding, leftfielder with a 123 ops+ is worthy of the hof or not. Raines issue isn't his career numbers, it's his rate numbers. (and that is only if you don't look deeper into his numbers of course)
   12. Chris Fluit Posted: December 02, 2013 at 01:52 PM (#4608703)
The divergence between Bagwell as a C and Piazza as an A is also interesting. On the last ballot, Bagwell had 59% and Piazza 57%. It's possible that Piazza leapfrogs Bagwell as it was Piazza's first year on the ballot and Bagwell's third but otherwise, they're launching with the same trajectory. They're also similar in that they have PED rumors and innuendo about them so that The PED Puritans won't vote for them but the writers who look for something more than gut feelings about guiltiness will say yes eventually. I expect both of them to be inducted, within a year or two of each other and within the next few years.
   13. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: December 02, 2013 at 02:01 PM (#4608712)
Agreed...career totals too low for Raines?


It's not so much the comment, as the grade. Rock's over 50 percent six years into his candidacy, and he's given a "not without a miracle" grade.
   14. cardsfanboy Posted: December 02, 2013 at 02:04 PM (#4608715)
The difference is that Piazza is more elite, relative to position, than Bagwell. I fully expect Piazza to leapfrog Bagwell by a pretty decent margin. (as you mention, it's relative to their ballot timing)

I think they both get in, but I think Piazza goes first, and depending on how the glut works itself out, it could be another 3-5 years for Bagwell. Piazza should be knocking on the door after this season and probably in before Irod gets on the ballot in 2017.
   15. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: December 02, 2013 at 02:10 PM (#4608723)
I'm pretty sure Jeff Bagwell could have played C as well as Mike Piazza did.
   16. cardsfanboy Posted: December 02, 2013 at 02:11 PM (#4608725)
It's not so much the comment, as the grade. Rock's over 50 percent six years into his candidacy, and he's given a "not without a miracle" grade.


I wasn't paying that much attention to the grades, once it became apparent that this was much more likely this guys opinion on who should go in, over who is going in. I mean comments like Edgar Martinez (he of the 36% vote total) "maybe this year" and the Lee Smith A and the Fred McGriff B score...how does McGriff with 20% on his 4th year beat Bagwell(C) with 60% on his 3rd year? And although I fully endorse Trammell for the hall, the B grade prediction is ridiculous. He has absolutely zero chance of going in on the writers ballot, and it's very unlikely he gets in through the vets either.
   17. cardsfanboy Posted: December 02, 2013 at 02:14 PM (#4608729)
I'm pretty sure Jeff Bagwell could have played C as well as Mike Piazza did.


Piazza actually played very good C.... outside of one skill, which was throwing out runners. His teams routinely finished top 3 in era while he caught, and when he left they dropped out of that level. And he then improved the teams he joined. The Mets one bad year as a staff, happened to coincide with the year he played only 68 games.

I know as a Braves fan you are obligated to hate him, but this myth about his poor defense needs to be nipped before someone believes it.
   18. Fancy Pants Handle doesn't need no water Posted: December 02, 2013 at 02:24 PM (#4608737)
Piazza actually played very good C.... outside of one skill, which was throwing out runners. His teams routinely finished top 3 in era while he caught, and when he left they dropped out of that level. And he then improved the teams he joined. The Mets one bad year as a staff, happened to coincide with the year he played only 68 games.

CERA, really? I have a barely used Jeff Mathis I would like to sell you...
   19. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: December 02, 2013 at 02:24 PM (#4608738)
I'm pretty sure Jeff Bagwell could have played C as well as Mike Piazza did.

Piazza actually played very good C.... outside of one skill, which was throwing out runners.


I just assumed that was a comment about sexual practices.
   20. villageidiom Posted: December 02, 2013 at 02:26 PM (#4608741)
PRIMATE INSTANT REVIEW OF TFA: Author conflates "prediction" with "preference". One star (out of 5).

   21. Squash Posted: December 02, 2013 at 02:26 PM (#4608742)
Agreed...career totals too low for Raines?

Raines reached base over 4000 times in his career, scored over 1500 runs in his career.... his career totals are just fine. It's whether you think an "average" fielding, leftfielder with a 123 ops+ is worthy of the hof or not.


But those aren't the career totals he's talking about. When it comes to the Hall a guy like Raines is judged on pretty much two stats only - hits and SBs. Voters like this are looking at his relatively low hit totals. (Note: I think Raines is Hall-worthy.)
   22. cardsfanboy Posted: December 02, 2013 at 02:46 PM (#4608757)
CERA, really? I have a barely used Jeff Mathis I would like to sell you...


Not really pushing Cera. Pushing the fact that his teams performed well with him, so he clearly didn't hurt them by his defense.

There is absolutely not one piece of evidence on this planet that says Mike Piazza was a poor defender as a catcher other than his arm. And arm is massively overrated by the press.
   23. cardsfanboy Posted: December 02, 2013 at 02:53 PM (#4608763)
But those aren't the career totals he's talking about. When it comes to the Hall a guy like Raines is judged on pretty much two stats only - hits and SBs. Voters like this are looking at his relatively low hit totals. (Note: I think Raines is Hall-worthy.)


2600 hits isn't what I would consider a relatively low hit total, same with 1500 runs and 800+ stolen bases. I understand why someone might not vote for Raines, but bagging on his career totals is not one of the legit reasons to keep him out. Again, his rate stats hurt him, not his career numbers.
   24. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: December 02, 2013 at 02:53 PM (#4608765)
I never really hated Mike Piazza. The Mets of that era were always the cute little brother trying to prove they could play just as well as the big boys. It was adorable, really.

Now granted, I did hate Todd Zeile. Actually, I still hate Todd Zeile.

Regardless, the best thing you could say about Mike Piazza's defense behind the plate was that it was better than his defense at 1B.
   25. cardsfanboy Posted: December 02, 2013 at 03:01 PM (#4608774)
Regardless, the best thing you could say about Mike Piazza's defense behind the plate was that it was better than his defense at 1B.


I always said he was a plus handler of pitchers, got a good jump out of the catchers box on foul pop ups, had a very weak(comical) arm. The single number one skill of catchers defense is handling pitchers, and he was a plus at that. The caught stealing, because it was the only thing for years that the stat community could measure about a catchers defense is massively overrated.
   26. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: December 02, 2013 at 03:18 PM (#4608796)
I always said he was a plus handler of pitchers, got a good jump out of the catchers box on foul pop ups, had a very weak(comical) arm. The single number one skill of catchers defense is handling pitchers, and he was a plus at that


I'd have to see crosstabs where it shows young pitchers benefited from Piazza's "handling" of the game. I'm reticent to give him credit for Al Leiter having a good idea of what he wanted to do on the mound.
   27. cardsfanboy Posted: December 02, 2013 at 03:41 PM (#4608824)
I'd have to see crosstabs where it shows young pitchers benefited from Piazza's "handling" of the game. I'm reticent to give him credit for Al Leiter having a good idea of what he wanted to do on the mound.


I don't see why? We have pretty good evidence that pitch framing is a skill, and it doesn't really matter the age of the pitcher. If Piazza led staffs consistently did well, it's evidence, at the very least, that he didn't hurt the staff. At worst you have to grade him out as an average defensive catcher. And that is the entire point I'm trying to make. There is literally, not one single piece of evidence that could indicate he was a poor defensive catcher other than his throwing out runner ability.

Catchers primary job is to handle the pitching staff, if the staff does well, it's an indication that the catcher can handle that aspect of the job. Add in that when Piazza left the Dodgers, they went from a team that consistently finished top three in era, to a below average teams in runs allowed. Meanwhile the Mets improved slightly, with their only year not being among the best, being the year that Piazza only played 68 games.

I'm not crediting him as a "plus" defender because of this, I'm arguing that it's impossible to argue him as a poor defender and look reasonable/rational in doing it.
   28. Booey Posted: December 02, 2013 at 04:13 PM (#4608850)
The difference is that Piazza is more elite, relative to position, than Bagwell.


Is he though? They're both top 5 all time at their positions. I'd probably rank Piazza third amongst catchers behind Bench and Berra, and Bagwell 4th amongst 1B behind Gehrig, Foxx, and Pujols. Not much difference.

And if you count Gibson at catcher, Piazza also drops to 4th and there's really no difference at all.
   29. cardsfanboy Posted: December 02, 2013 at 04:24 PM (#4608862)
Is he though? They're both top 5 all time at their positions. I'd probably rank Piazza third amongst catchers behind Bench and Berra, and Bagwell 4th amongst 1B behind Gehrig, Foxx, and Pujols. Not much difference.


Does Bagwell really pull away from McCovey, Mize or Murray enough to make a difference? or even McGwire, And I'm the type that default assumes a DH is a first baseman so Frank Thomas is on that list. I just feel that Piazza is clearly third and that the others challenging him (Irod) are also clear hofers, I'm not sure that Bagwell is the best first baseman on the ballot.
   30. oscarmadisox Posted: December 02, 2013 at 04:26 PM (#4608864)
The good father hasn't been paying attention as he lists Maddux as possibly being unanimous. We know that won't happen as our friend Murray isn't voting for him, choosing instead to only support Jack Morris.

In addition to Murray and the rest of the PED abstainers, who refuse to vote for anyone from the steroid era there's the first-ballot snobs who refuse to vote for anyone who's on their first ballot. There's also the unlikely but possible scenario that someone has a full ballot of 10 holdover candidates and won't change his selections until someone drops off or gets elected.

I guess I'd set the over/under on number of voters who don't vote for Maddux at seven. That's one less than the number of people who left Cal Ripken off their ballot, but two more than left Tom Seaver off.
   31. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: December 02, 2013 at 04:27 PM (#4608866)
Holy crap, Bagwell is 4th in WAR among players with 75% or more of their games at first. Color me stunned.

   32. cardsfanboy Posted: December 02, 2013 at 04:28 PM (#4608868)
The good father hasn't been paying attention as he lists Maddux as possibly being unanimous. We know that won't happen as our friend Murray isn't voting for him, choosing instead to only support Jack Morris


I think you read the comment from Murray wrong. I'm pretty sure he implied he was voting for Maddux, and Glavine but not Mussina.
   33. Booey Posted: December 02, 2013 at 04:37 PM (#4608876)
Does Bagwell really pull away from McCovey, Mize or Murray enough to make a difference?


I think he does, when you factor in defense and baserunning. He was one of the only big name 90's first basemen that wasn't a statue in the field and a slug on the basepaths (McGwire, Thomas, Thome, McGriff, Delgado, Giambi, Vaughn, etc).

And for the types you mentioned that like to underrate Piazza's defense - or if you're more of a career over peak guy - you could make an argument for both Pudge's and Carter ahead of him. I don't agree with those arguments either, but they're not completely ridiculous.
   34. cardsfanboy Posted: December 02, 2013 at 04:49 PM (#4608896)
And for the types you mentioned that like to underrate Piazza's defense - or if you're more of a career over peak guy - you could make an argument for both Pudge's and Carter ahead of him. I don't agree with those arguments either, but they're not completely ridiculous.


I can see Irod over him, not sure about Fisk or Carter though.
   35. oscarmadisox Posted: December 02, 2013 at 04:57 PM (#4608912)
I just reread the article and I guess you're right, but he doesn't say specifically that he'll vote for Maddux or Glavine either. I still think the over/under on Maddux is 7 votes. If 23 guys didn't vote for Willie Mays there are bound to be some knuckleheads who won't vote for Maddux. (And I wouldn't put it past one voter to keep him off the ballot just so he won't get every vote.)
   36. Gonfalon B. Posted: December 02, 2013 at 05:01 PM (#4608915)
I wouldn't put it past the Corkies of the group to mistake him for Garry Maddox.
   37. cardsfanboy Posted: December 02, 2013 at 05:10 PM (#4608930)
I just reread the article and I guess you're right, but he doesn't say specifically that he'll vote for Maddux or Glavine either. I still think the over/under on Maddux is 7 votes. If 23 guys didn't vote for Willie Mays there are bound to be some knuckleheads who won't vote for Maddux. (And I wouldn't put it past one voter to keep him off the ballot just so he won't get every vote.)


No, but he does specifically question people who refuse to vote for anyone from the steroid era,
I don’t agree with that view. But then I don’t agree with those who vote for no one because they aren’t certain who did and didn’t use.

that indicates to me that he is probably voting for a few from that era. His comment on Mussina seems to indicate he is voting for Maddux and Glavine

Maddux is certain to be elected, and Glavine has an excellent chance. Not on my ballot, but first-timer Mike Mussina could also get in Morris’ way.


It's not the most clearly worded sentences, but him separting Mussina away from Glavine and Maddux is a pretty good indication that he views them differently.

Btw, I agree with you, that there is no way that Maddux is going in unanimously. Someone is going to find a reason to not vote for him, whether it's a "Ryan/Seaver/Cobb/etc." didn't go in unanimously voter or a person who doesn't feel roiders should be cheated, and is calling attention to Clemens inability to get in on the first ballot...a few people are going to leave him off the ballot.
   38. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: December 02, 2013 at 05:13 PM (#4608937)
that indicates to me that he is probably voting for a few from that era. His comment on Mussina seems to indicate he is voting for Maddux and Glavine


Well, he did say last year that he was only going to vote for Morris in 2014, then turn in his voting card. So I can understand maintaining some uncertainty about his ballot.

   39. geonose Posted: December 02, 2013 at 05:37 PM (#4608966)
There has never been a unanimous election to the Hall of Fame, and Greg Maddux ain't gonna be the first.
   40. Gonfalon B. Posted: December 02, 2013 at 08:44 PM (#4609085)
Lou Gehrig reportedly went in unanimously. Ichiro, you know what to do.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Eugene Freedman
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogChase Utley is the hottest hitter in baseball and has a shot at .400
(18 - 3:38pm, Apr 19)
Last: PreservedFish

NewsblogOMNICHATTER FOR APRIL 19, 2014
(39 - 3:37pm, Apr 19)
Last: DKDC

NewsblogOTP April 2014: BurstNET Sued for Not Making Equipment Lease Payments
(1696 - 3:36pm, Apr 19)
Last: David Nieporent (now, with children)

NewsblogRosenthal: MLB likely to adjust two rules: plays at home & transfer catches
(11 - 3:35pm, Apr 19)
Last: bobm

NewsblogSeidman: Velocity talk angers Papelbon, who cites Halladay
(5 - 3:34pm, Apr 19)
Last: base ball chick

NewsblogDoug Glanville: I Was Racially Profiled in My Own Driveway
(343 - 3:34pm, Apr 19)
Last: Juilin Sandar to Conkling Speedwell (Arjun)

NewsblogSCD: Bobby Cox Rookie Card Goes from Common Box to Hall of Fame
(3 - 3:32pm, Apr 19)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogOT: The Soccer Thread March, 2014
(913 - 3:32pm, Apr 19)
Last: nick swisher hygiene

NewsblogNYT: Sandomir: When Swastikas, on Caps, Meant Luck
(4 - 3:23pm, Apr 19)
Last: JE (Jason Epstein)

NewsblogCesar Cabral tossed from game, from team
(19 - 3:21pm, Apr 19)
Last: bobm

NewsblogOT: NBA Monthly Thread - April 2014
(339 - 2:57pm, Apr 19)
Last: Rob_Wood

Newsblogmets.com: Through hitting system, Mets aim to build winner
(6 - 2:36pm, Apr 19)
Last: The District Attorney

NewsblogPirates Acquire Ike Davis From Mets
(33 - 2:12pm, Apr 19)
Last: formerly dp

NewsblogMinuteman News Center: Giandurco: This means WAR
(91 - 2:10pm, Apr 19)
Last: zenbitz

NewsblogOMNICHATTER FOR APRIL 18, 2014
(156 - 1:33pm, Apr 19)
Last: cardsfanboy

Demarini, Easton and TPX Baseball Bats

 

 

 

 

Page rendered in 0.5094 seconds
52 querie(s) executed