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Friday, August 31, 2012

Fay: Two Reds present two strong cases for Cy Young

Reds manager Dusty Baker sees no reason to exclude Chapman because he’s a reliever.

“It’s all part of pitching,” Baker said. “If he’s the best pitcher in the league, he deserves to win the Cy Young.”

...“I’ve got to put four times as much weight on what Johnny’s done versus any other reliever in the game,” said Bronson Arroyo, himself a starter. “He’s going to throw 215 innings. He’s probably going to win 20. He’s the one who sets the table for the guys.

“If you’re rowing six-eighths of the way to the island, I think he’s got to get most of the credit.”

...“With Aroldis, I think his inclusion in this debate is because of the hits-per-inning, the walks and strikeouts per innings, the ERA, save percentage,” pitching coach Bryan Price said. “Numbers are really off the charts – to strike out 16 guys per innings nine innings and to have the ERA and WHIP, to see the difference in walks this year. The numbers that he’s running seem to me to suggest that he needs to be in the conversation. I’ve typically been a guy who believed that starting pitchers should win the award.

“But what a guy does one inning or one-plus inning maybe three times a week is notable. I think with way he goes through hitters is so strong that you have to at least look at him.”

Thanks to Butch.

Repoz Posted: August 31, 2012 at 01:09 AM | 24 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: awards, reds

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: August 31, 2012 at 01:52 AM (#4223270)
No Red has ever won the Cy Young Award. They are the only non-expansion team lacking one.
   2. vortex of dissipation Posted: August 31, 2012 at 02:26 AM (#4223278)
I still think Tom Seaver should have won in 1981.
   3. John DiFool2 Posted: August 31, 2012 at 08:39 AM (#4223346)
Chapman had a rough stretch in mid-June, where he gave up 9 hits, 8 runs, and 3 homers in 6 innings.

Outside of that, he has given up exactly 1 earned run all season, in his remaining 58 innings.
   4. TDF, situational idiot Posted: August 31, 2012 at 09:11 AM (#4223369)
Chapman had a rough stretch in mid-June, where he gave up 9 hits, 8 runs, and 3 homers in 6 innings.

Outside of that, he has given up exactly 1 earned run all season, in his remaining 58 innings.
Damn interleague; 7 of the 9 ER he's given up have been to AL teams.

Vs. the NL, he has an ERA of 0.31 in 58 2/3 IP.
   5. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: August 31, 2012 at 09:20 AM (#4223376)
I would be more inclined to give the CYA to a reliever if not for the rigid, 9th inning only usage pattern. Earlier in the year, Chapman was used as a fireman with occasional outings exceeding one inning. Through May 27, Chapman threw 26 innings in 21 outings, with a 4-0 record, 6 holds, and 3 saves. He had yet to allow an earned run. It's hard to complain with the year the Reds have had, but Chapman would be more valuable if they'd continued to use him like that. As it is, Chapman got the closer's job once Marshall ran into a few bad outings.
   6. AROM Posted: August 31, 2012 at 10:54 AM (#4223518)
I still think Tom Seaver should have won in 1981.


At the time I thought Nolan Ryan, he of the 1.69 ERA. I know that from memory because it was in my formative baseball years. I know Verlander won the ERA title last year, I don't know what his number was. Seaver at 14-2 looks better than Fernando. I think his ERA was better too, though I'm not sure.

Fernando-mania trumped all the numbers that year.
   7. AROM Posted: August 31, 2012 at 10:59 AM (#4223529)
And WAR says...

Steve Carlton.

Fernando 2, Ryan 3, Seaver 5. Steve and Fernando had a lot more innings pitched. Park factors are probably the edge for Steve, as by raw numbers he and Fernando are almost identical.
   8. cardsfanboy Posted: August 31, 2012 at 12:10 PM (#4223637)
I'm one of the weird people that like relievers for MVP but don't care for them for the Cy Young for the most part. Although no reliever, including Chapman, has done enough as a reliever in the past decade for me to really consider them for the MVP either.


My vote would go
1. Cueto (I don't see how you can vote for anyone over him)
2. Lohse (I don't think he will be there when the season ends)
3. Dickey
4. Zimmermann
5. Miley.... (I honestly could argue for the 2nd-5th in any order and can see including Hamels and Kershaw)

   9. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: August 31, 2012 at 12:18 PM (#4223651)
AL pitchers must look at lists like that and just about crap rocks. There might be 5 guys in the AL more deserving of a CYA than anyone in the NL this season. I love baseball.
   10. Tippecanoe Posted: August 31, 2012 at 12:25 PM (#4223667)
You mean except for Cueto.
   11. cardsfanboy Posted: August 31, 2012 at 12:33 PM (#4223684)
AL pitchers must look at lists like that and just about crap rocks. There might be 5 guys in the AL more deserving of a CYA than anyone in the NL this season. I love baseball.


Really? Ignoring the league quality difference, I don't see any AL pitcher that really stands out.

Rk                        Tm    Lg  W  L  ERA CG SHO    IP   R ER  SO ERA+  WHIP  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
1          JohnnyCueto   CIN    NL 17  6 2.48  2   0 181.2  54 50 144  172 1.123  8.1  0.4  2.0  7.1  3.51
2       FelixHernandez   SEA    AL 13  5 2.43  5   5 196.2  56 53 184  155 1.027  7.1  0.5  2.1  8.4  4.00
3           ChrisSale
*   CHW    AL 15  5 2.81  1   0 157.0  50 49 155  155 1.064  7.3  0.9  2.2  8.9  3.97
4           WadeMiley
*   ARI    NL 14  9 2.85  0   0 158.0  56 50 114  151 1.101  8.3  0.6  1.6  6.5  4.07
5     JordanZimmermann   WSN    NL  9  8 2.63  0   0 161.0  52 47 119  150 1.130  8.4  0.8  1.8  6.7  3.72
6      JustinVerlander   DET    AL 12  7 2.80  6   1 196.1  71 61 198  149 1.044  7.1  0.7  2.3  9.1  3.96
7            KyleLohse   STL    NL 14  2 2.64  0   0 174.0  54 51 107  147 1.080  8.1  0.7  1.7  5.5  3.34
8          DavidPrice
*   TBR    AL 16  5 2.53  1   1 174.0  52 49 170  147 1.103  7.3  0.8  2.6  8.8  3.40
9         HirokiKuroda   NYY    AL 12  9 2.98  3   2 175.0  62 58 131  141 1.103  7.9  0.9  2.1  6.7  3.28
10           JakePeavy   CHW    AL  9  9 3.09  4   1 175.0  66 60 155  141 1.080  7.8  0.9  1.9  8.0  4.19
11        RyanDempster   TOT   MLB  8  6 2.99  0   0 135.1  50 45 112  138 1.138  7.8  1.0  2.5  7.4  3.03
12          R
.A.Dickey   NYM    NL 16  4 2.76  4   2 182.1  62 56 183  137 1.020  7.2  0.8  2.0  9.0  4.46
13       MattHarrison
*   TEX    AL 15  8 3.30  3   2 174.1  66 64 106  136 1.262  8.8  0.8  2.5  5.5  2.16
14         ColeHamels
*   PHI    NL 14  6 2.99  2   2 177.1  65 59 172  135 1.122  7.8  1.1  2.3  8.7  3.82
15     ClaytonKershaw
*   LAD    NL 12  8 2.85  2   2 192.2  66 61 192  133 1.017  7.0  0.7  2.2  9.0  4.09
16         JeredWeaver   LAA    AL 16  3 2.85  3   2 155.0  53 49 118  133 0.987  6.9  0.9  2.0  6.9  3.47
17    StephenStrasburg   WSN    NL 15  6 3.05  0   0 150.1  57 51 186  129 1.144  7.7  0.8  2.6 11.1  4.23 


I don't see any standout performances by Al relative to league over the NL guys. Cueto is the obvious stud of the season, beyond that it looks like a cluster of 150 era+ pitchers.
   12. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: August 31, 2012 at 12:46 PM (#4223693)
I do mean except for Cueto. I went to look at b-r after posting; I didn't realize just HOW good a season he was having.

Thanks for posting that list, cfb, I guess it is closer than I thought. I do think Felix, Verlander and Price stand head and shoulders above anybody in MLB but Cueto (various combos of IP, K's, quality of competition, WHIP), but Sale and Weaver (the other two guys I was thinking of originally) are basically no different than the rest of the pack.

Kershaw comes off looking a lot worse than I expected, too. I guess he just must get hammered by the adjusted stats for pitching in the NL West?
   13. cardsfanboy Posted: August 31, 2012 at 01:37 PM (#4223775)
The issue is that Verlander, Felix and Price are guys who have shown the recent ability to be great, while Lohse, Miley and even Zimmermann have only this season to point to, they just don't feel like 'aces' or Cy Young talent. It's that flukey feel more than anything.



I do think Felix, Verlander and Price stand head and shoulders above anybody in MLB but Cueto (various combos of IP, K's, quality of competition, WHIP),


Really? I think if you are looking at those peripherals(we'll ignore the argument about quality of competition---for another thread) and you will see that Kershaw and Dickey are posting as good, if not better numbers than Verlander and his ilk. (Of course they are being helped by facing pitchers though) I just don't see any clear gaps between the Al guys and the NL guys that doesn't require contortions to the numbers to make. Outside of Cueto, there are no dominant performances this year. Although if Hernandez keeps doing what he has been doing for the last month, that comment can be changed to include him.

Relative to league(which is what I go by, since it's not really worth the effort to argue cross league performances where you have to deal with a host of "what ifs") the AL and NL top performers are performing relatively equivalent.
   14. Walt Davis Posted: August 31, 2012 at 07:44 PM (#4224111)
Just look at the names. King Felix, Verlander (defending CYA and MVP), Price, even Peavy who was once great. Compared to ...

Wade Miley -- sounds like he should be the weatherman for WKRP
RA Dickey -- funny name and the man is 37 years old
Kyle Lohse -- really?

Point being the NL leaders look mainly like guys on fluke years; the NL leaders (with maybe 1-2 exceptions) are studs. Do you want your team to sign Lohse this offseason?

Also, >8 K/9 by ERA

Felix
Sale
Verlander
Price
Peavy
Dickey
Hamels
Kershaw
Strasburg

The NL catches up but those are the guys lower down the ERA list (and are a lot of the guys I think of when I think top NL pitchers). Cueto is having an excellent season (and should probably join my list) but that's actually a below-averge K rate (NL is at 7.6; even NL starters are at 7.2). The Brweres (the Brewers?) are K'ing 8.7/9 as a team.
   15. GregD Posted: August 31, 2012 at 08:21 PM (#4224130)
No Red has ever won the Cy Young Award. They are the only non-expansion team lacking one.
Reds pitchers hardly ever receive votes! Top 10 finishes:

2007 Aaron Harang 4th
1995 Pete Schourek 2nd
1993 Jose Rijo 5th
1991 Jose Rijo 4th
1990 Randy Myers 5th
1988 Danny Jackson 2nd
1985 Tom Browning 5th
1984 Mario Soto 6th
1983 Mario Soto 2nd
1982 Mario Soto 9th
1981 Seaver 2nd
1980 Soto tied 5th
1979 Seaver 4th
1976 Rawly EAstwick 5th
1975 Don Gullett 5th
1974 Gullett, Billingham Carroll 6th, 7th, 8th
1973 Billingham 4th
1972 Carroll and Nolan tied 5th
1970 Merrit 4th, Nolan 6th


In 1 award era

1962 Purkey tied 3rd


4 2nd places, 5 4ths....there are players with more Cy Young Award shares than the Reds franchise
   16. Alex meets the threshold for granular review Posted: August 31, 2012 at 09:08 PM (#4224149)
Who the #### is Pete Schourek?
   17. puck Posted: August 31, 2012 at 09:42 PM (#4224170)
“If you’re rowing six-eighths of the way to the island, I think he’s got to get most of the credit.”


Surprised no one commented on Arroyo's choice of fraction. One, why not 3/4, Two, at 6.72 IP/GS, that proportion is pretty damn accurate.
   18. God Posted: August 31, 2012 at 09:49 PM (#4224173)
I assumed Arroyo used the 8 IP marker because the team usually loses when he pitches.
   19. GregD Posted: September 01, 2012 at 12:38 AM (#4224241)
[quoteWho the #### is Pete Schourek?
]I am a lifelong Reds fan and I had to check this myself. Pete Schourek
   20. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: September 01, 2012 at 12:50 AM (#4224248)
I believe Pete Schourek was the same person as Pete Harnisch.
   21. Austin Posted: September 01, 2012 at 01:19 AM (#4224266)
#18 - Well done.

I figure he said six-eighths because he was thinking "six or eight innings" and mixed it up into his rowing analogy.
   22. SoSH U at work Posted: September 01, 2012 at 01:31 AM (#4224268)
Who the #### is Pete Schourek?


The quintessential gangly lefthander. Tall and thin, but not a hard thrower like Big Unit.

Had the one great year in Cincinnati. He never came close to matching it, but he remained a capable pitcher. In 1998, Red Sox got him for the stretch run. Jimy Williams smartly defied the pleas to bring Pedro back on short rest in the division series with the Indians and went with Schourek in Game 4 instead. Pete rewarded him with 5+ innings of shutout ball and left with 1-0 lead, but Flash Gordon couldn't close the door and the Indians took the series 3-1. Had a couple of crappy seasons after that and was done.

   23. MM1f Posted: September 01, 2012 at 02:02 AM (#4224274)
How do people NOT remember Pete Schourek? Classic "just a guy" guy for all of the 1990s.
   24. Chris Fluit Posted: September 01, 2012 at 08:42 AM (#4224311)
According to Hall of Merit voters, Bob Purkey of the Reds was the best pitcher in MLB in 1962. The knuckleballer had a 143 ERA+ in 288 innings and a 23-5 record. However, the baseball writers at the time saw it differently, giving the Cy Young to Don Drysdale based on his 25-9 record with a 128 ERA+ in 314 innings. The difference of opinion is about park factor as much as wins, though, as Drysdale's LA Coliseum aided ERA was 2.83 compared to Purkey's 2.81.

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