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1. Big Train Posted: November 03, 2008 at 11:23 PM (#3002115)Um, what?
Not if the region is New York, anyway.
"leave the gun--take the cannolis"
With Jeter it has to do with Big #####. (Sal Bonpensiero)
haha ha. nice work
edit about your edit: since when are you worried about people getting your references?
edit about my edit: i guess because people might not have known which censored word it was
QOTY.
Yeah, that’s right, I defended Jeter on the herpes issue. I’m a true fan. [Fist pump]
Good points, actually (well, except for the "computer glich" argument).
This, on the other hand:
was a complete unnecessary addendum. There is no reason to think that James's affiliation with the Red Sox affects what appears on Bill James Online.
-- MWE
As long as the back of the sign says "I [Fist Pumped] Jeter".
The numbers showed he was 22nd, among the most talented defensive players in the league, not last. We also know that Jeter didn't rank that far below average in terms of missed plays, even if he was 22nd, unless they the numbers have changed dramatically since August/September. I wonder what they thought about the 8 guys that ranked below him and all the terrible defensive players playing further down the defensive spectrum.
But you're right in that the conclusion is wrong. He can only be compared to shortstops.
The vote totals are from the current season though.
Defensive position is easy: he will remain the "shortstop" until he retires, but will position roughly 100 feet behind the traditional position, while the "left fielder" will move forward 100 feet. Voila, problem solved.
This made me COL (chuckle out loud).
More likely, the example of vizquel will give them an excuse to say there's no reason to expect great shortstops to lose their ability.
As a Blue Jays fan, this makes me happy.
Yes, Derek. No event can be compared to another. Every hit is unique, like a snowflake. Especially since you play in Yankee Stadium, and how would our silly statistics or objective measurements capture that special twinkle a ground ball hit in Yankee Stadium has?
This is a wonderful quote. I wonder if Jeter had been voted best offensive shortstop would he have said "Maybe it was a computer glitch, every defense isn't in the same spot, every hitter doesn't face the same pitchers, everyone doesn't have the same fielders trying to stop him, it's impossible to do that."
The likelihood that Derek Jeter, over his career, has seen a sample set of BIP, within a small margin of error, nearly identical to other long-term SS is high. GBs do not have to be identical to have the same odds of being turned into an out.
Jeter could be the worst regular defensive SS in baseball (I'm not sure if he's that bad, but he's bad) and it still make sense for him to play there.
If he's going to put up a 102 OPS+ it makes sense to seriously question it.
The voting is transparent. The voters themselves were Bill James, the BIS Video Crew, Dan Casey, Hal Richman (Strat-O-Matic), Joe Posnanski, John Dewan, Matt Olkin, Mike Murphy, Rob Neyer and the Tangotiger Fan Poll. As previous posters stated, worst is a bit misleading. He finished 22nd in the voting. Other shortstops did not receive any votes, such as Jeff Keppinger, Alex Cintron or David Eckstein.
If he's going to put up a 102 OPS+, he doesn't belong in 1B or RF/LF either.
If he can get his OPS+ back to the 120 range, it depends on your other options at SS/1B/OF on where he should play.
If he puts a 100 OPS+ up the next two years, his Yankee career needs to end.
I think you may be right. The Red Sox front office is considering moving David Ortiz to SS to take advantage of this.
Chris,
Looking at your OPD spreadsheet, you have Jeter as very valuable this year, even given his down offense. Now let's assume the positive defense was fluky, but I'd also assume he rebounds some on offense. It's going to be hard to find a SS that has more total value, unless Jeter's offense doesn't recover and/or his defense regresses a lot.
In other words, the rank matters. If he's in the top half of SS in total contribution, it will be expensive to replace him with someone better (either in money or talent).
I know you're being facetious, but if you thought Ortiz could be a -30 R/150G SS w/o hurting himself or reducing his offense, it might make sense, given your other option.
It sounds ridiculous, b/c we know what Ortiz looks like, and he probably would hurt himself in the first game, but there is no reason why terrific offense/terrible glove can not be the answer at a given position.
If I had 9 Babe Ruth clones, I'm pretty sure starting all 9 of them and accepting the defensive damage would be the right answer.
Foxx, maybe - not so sure the Babe would hang in there well on the DP.
***
The ballot had 27 SS. Here was the ballot, with the Fans' picks:
Shortstops Rank
Mike Aviles, KC ___
Erick Aybar, LAA _2_
Jason Bartlett, TB _5_
Y. Betancourt, Sea ___
Orlando Cabrera, CWS ___
Bobby Crosby, Oak ___
Stephen Drew, Ari ___
Yunel Escobar, Atl 10_
Khalil Greene, SD _7_
Cristian Guzman, Was ___
J.J. Hardy, Mil ___
Cesar Izturis, StL _9_
Derek Jeter, NYY ___
Jeff Keppinger, Cin ___
Julio Lugo, Bos ___
Tony F Pena, KC ___
Jhonny Peralta, Cle ___
Hanley Ramirez, Fla ___
Edgar Renteria, Det ___
Jose Reyes, NYM _4_
Jimmy Rollins, Phi _8_
Miguel Tejada, Hou ___
Ryan Theriot, ChC ___
Troy Tulowitzki, Col _3_
Omar Vizquel, SF _1_
Jack Wilson, Pit _6_
Michael Young, Tex ___
Had John McDonald qualified (needed 500 innings as of mid-Sept), he would have been the easy #1 pick among the Fans.
Jeff Keppinger Cin 23
Julio Lugo Bos 24
Jhonny Peralta Cle 25
Y. Betancourt Sea 26
Edgar Renteria Det 27
The USS Mariner crew think he has slipped badly, and is below average defensively at this point.
I'm glad, but I think there is a real bias there.
As for Betancourt, that is a case-study unto itself. He was ranked by the Fans as one of the top 3 SS since he's come up, except in 2008, where he took an enormous tumble. It is an almost unprecedented shift in perception, even worse than Chuck Blockhead I would guess. Personally, and without any evidence, I'm guessing it has to do with some personal matters regarding the guys he was involved with in coming to America. But, that's just a WAG.
Yes, that's who I'm talking about.
I'm not arguing it should be disregarded.
In any case, I really don't think there is much bias. They vote for Omar Vizquel, regardless of what the stats have or have not been telling them. They love Evan Longoria, and, as a rookie, there were no stats for them to tell them that. He is neck-and-neck with Beltre and Rolen. There is a halo effect (it took until last year for them to turn on Junior).
Anyway, just another piece to the puzzle.
Wasn't Ruth left-handed? In which case I wouldn't play him at third, short, or second no matter how good he was. As a conservative estimate I'd bet he'd be around -150 runs at short. In addition to the horrible range a good chunk of the balls he got to would still be infield hits. A left handed ozzie smith would be a horrible defensive shortstop. Completely impossible.
With 9 Ruth's, I'd probably try him at 2nd or 3rd, get a real fielder for the other position (probably 3B since Ruth the pitcher is a lefty) and definitely get a real fielder at short.
Then I'd take my 2 extra Ruths and use them as pinch hitters for the fielders, as they rest in between starts on the 3 day rotation.
Well, Mariners fans on Lookout Landing were complaining about him being fat this past season.
What percentage of those bang-bang plays is the SS going at 100% speed? Many bang-bang plays look to be made with the speed of the runner very much taken into consideration (I am not going to even hazard a guess as to what % as it would be something pulled straight out of my ass). A SS who sees somebody glacial at the plate is probably going to relax a bit, take their time fielding the ball, then follow that with a leisurely throw to 1st - giving the play the appearance of being close (assuming of course the runner did not rape the sanctity of the game and violate his contract a la Manny "The Loafing-Malcontent-Loafer" Ramirez).
edit: wow, rape and ass make it through?
Third base is different than SS or (especially) 2B. Still, I doubt a left-handed Ozzie Smith would have been horrible.
So, the opinion of any single person (you or me or Chris' recounting of his Mariners friends) is really almost worthless, and at the same time, is very valuable when combined with other singularly worthless opinions.
Always remember that you are 100% unique...just like everyone else.
I think 100 OPS+ at SS is something most teams would like.
The Yankees seem blind to his fielding and want him to retire as a Yankee.
if I could take any player and clone him to make a starting lineup, the best answer is absurdly, ridiculously easy, isn't it?
They guy with a career .762 OWP, which means the team scores 8 runs / game. With plus defense at likely 7 of the 8 positions, you could run out a mediocre pitching staff, produce an ERA of 5.50 witout even trying, and win 100+ games.
wow. what a stud. say there are 2,400 regular season games. say he watches an edited version, and can on average use just 15 minutes a game for viewing and registering his information. that's 75 8-hour works days.
that's without lunch or breaks, but heck, the guy is special, right?
let's hope he get's his vectors and assessments right. i mean, what if the guy did all the work, but never figured out the difference between soft and hard?
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