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Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Finding the best spot for Giancarlo Stanton

Some fun stuff from Dan Szymborski. (The Photoshop skills in the article images are pretty, pretty good. )

Jim Furtado Posted: November 21, 2017 at 07:04 AM | 14 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: giancarlo stanton, marlins, tradecasting

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: November 21, 2017 at 07:25 AM (#5579238)
Those WAR projections are something else ... from about 37 to 48 depending on landing spot. I wouldn't have thought that park/team made that big of a WAR difference but I will bow to our robot simulator overlords. The 48 WAR in Philly seem particularly unbelievable given he's never projected to even one 600 PA season. As expected, about 2/3 of the WAR is in the first 5 years.

EDIT: Oh, you gotta follow the link in the article to get to the projections.
   2. Sunday silence Posted: November 21, 2017 at 10:14 AM (#5579299)
hey Walt i wanted to ask you something else about the economics of this Stanton contract.

When valuating this K (I think its got 10 yrs $300M left) doesnt one have to figure what are the odds that they can find a cost controlled RF for at least a portion of the length of this contract?

Like to me, in ten years its seems reasonable to think that my organization should be able to find one cost controlled player for say 3-4 years on average, who can man RF. Should I take that into consideration when valuing this?
   3. Sunday silence Posted: November 21, 2017 at 10:23 AM (#5579303)
I wouldn't have thought that park/team made that big of a WAR


Just looking at the first three teams there, some of it is clearly park effects like if you look at CWS vs LAA you can just look at the seasonal HR projection and get a proxy for the WAR difference. But CWS vs HOU the numbers look the same and the WAR is like 0.4 or more different. Is maybe it hard to field fly balls in HOU?? I give up..
   4. Walt Davis Posted: November 22, 2017 at 12:43 AM (#5579959)
When valuating this K (I think its got 10 yrs $300M left) doesnt one have to figure what are the odds that they can find a cost controlled RF for at least a portion of the length of this contract?

Like to me, in ten years its seems reasonable to think that my organization should be able to find one cost controlled player for say 3-4 years on average, who can man RF. Should I take that into consideration when valuing this?


You probably need a bigger financial brain than mine ... and guaranteed if I bought a Stanton today at $300 M, he would be worth $200 M in 6 months.

Anyway, maybe kinda. But plenty of spots to play a guy on the field. You develop a RF prospect, then shift him or Stanton to LF or 1B or DH. It's not much of a problem until you develop a LF, CF, RF, 1B and DH which is unlikely.

But sure, in some extreme case, if (I dunno) a mid-career Chipper Jones was available but you had Nolan Arenado on the way, you might be better off spending your money on players other than Chipper. Even that probably depends on how much of Chipper's value is tied to his position and what other positions you think he can play (tip: no LF!). I suppose it becomes more problematic when we're talking 1B, especially in NL where there's likely no place to move the star or the kid. I doubt there's much reason looking more than 1-2 years down the line though. You know you're likely to develop some good players, you know you're not very likely to develop any as good as Stanton (or Chipper) and it's a nice problem to have if you have to trade a still productive Stanton to make room for all of your superstars. (Or trade the kid for 2 Verlanders or whatever.)

Or this may be more an issue for mid-tier guys. Why sign Eric Hosmer when there is a pretty good chance you will develop, trade for, find some kid or Los Dos Francos who will provide about as much value more cheaply. Even if you don't have one this year, I suppose there's a pretty good chance you'd have one for 2019 and 2020. Combined with the possibility of Hosmer declining (possibly being "untradeable") plus not thinking he has much value as a DH (or being in the NL), you'll drop out of the bidding sooner. But I'm not sure that's saying much more than solid but not very good/excellent hitters with little defensive value shouldn't get big, long contracts.

Also it may be important to distinguish between "what about my future cost-controlled players" and "Stanton will probably not be very good at ages 34-37" (last 4 years). If you trade for him, you should know going in you're really counting on him for the next 5 years so yet another reason not to look too far down the road in terms of options. And if Dan's projections are roughly correct, there's no way you have enough talent on the way you wouldn't want to add Stanton's 25-30 WAR over the next 5 years if you can afford it.
   5. Walt Davis Posted: November 22, 2017 at 12:57 AM (#5579965)
Or to add ... obviously some guys will flop but the Cubs have an entire position player lineup plus Ian Happ under control for (at least) the next 4 years and, at the end of those 4 years, the oldest players will be Rizzo and Heyward who will have finished their age 31 seasons. So an entire ML-caliber lineup in its prime. In that quite rare context (for today's game), it would seem sensible that the Cubs concentrate their marginal resources on pitching over the next 4 years. That doesn't mean they should definitely not go after Stanton or Harper or whoever then trade off other guys but it certainly suggests there would have been little point going after Upton if he had opted out and they'd be insane to even have Hosmer cross their mind. In that last case, even if they were convinced Rizzo was about to go off a cliff and got a great offer for him, they'd shift Schwarber (and/or Zobrist and/or Bryant) to 1B. But of course that's resources on hand which although they still have uncertain futures, they're more reliable than some kid at AA who projects to be the next Happ.

So what other resources you have around guides how you spend your other resources ... but that becomes less important when you are talking about acquiring a star player and probably completely unimportant if you are worrying about what resources you might have in 2021 (unless you're the Cubs). OK ... another example ... supposedly Harper wants to play with Bryant ... obviously the Cubs won't be "able to afford" both Stanton and Harper so how seriously do the Cubs consider their chances at Harper. I'd say probably not good enough to pass on a good deal for Stanton.

Another alternative analogy ... would you trade this young player for Stanton straight up? How much would the Marlins have to kick in to make that happen? If the answers to those are yes or not too much, then you've answered the question of which you'd rather have. Also if the answer are yes or not too much, that's probably one of the players the Marlins are going to insist on anyway. And given you should be happy to include almost any player you think is 3 years away from the majors, that answers the question.
   6. stevegamer Posted: November 22, 2017 at 04:59 AM (#5579975)
That's a nice article, and great graphics by Brian Konnick, as noted on the article.
   7. Tony S Posted: November 22, 2017 at 06:29 AM (#5579976)

Miami.
   8. Booey Posted: November 22, 2017 at 07:31 AM (#5579980)
Colorado. Stanton + Coors Field = awesome.
   9. Sunday silence Posted: November 22, 2017 at 01:42 PM (#5580285)
thanks for the response Walt that sounds about right. What about those projections in Minute Maid park? Any ideas?
   10. Tom Nawrocki Posted: November 22, 2017 at 04:06 PM (#5580358)
Colorado. Stanton + Coors Field = awesome.


Concur. Stanton has 10 homers in 91 career ABs in Coors, and generally hits at least one halfway to Boulder every season. He'd hit at least 59 homers every season if he played for the Rockies.
   11. DJS, the Digital Dandy Posted: November 23, 2017 at 02:14 PM (#5580602)
Yeah, the graphics guys did an amazing job.
   12. Walt Davis Posted: November 23, 2017 at 04:18 PM (#5580618)
#9 ... you need to ask Dan that one. I see why park effects would affect raw numbers and rate stats, I didn't expect them to have this big an impact on WAR projections. By park effects, despite its rep, MM has been a pretty extreme pitchers park for a few years now.
   13. Don Malcolm Posted: November 24, 2017 at 10:32 PM (#5580868)
Nice piece, ultimately refreshing because it doesn't stay stuck in the pro/con mode--but up until the final payoff, I really was starting to think "is this really DAN writing this?" All's well that ends well!

I do have to second Tom's "concur" and wonder why the Rox would not try to do this. With seven viable starting pitchers, they could toss a couple into a deal along with Trevor Story (assuming Desmond can still handle SS). Would that be sufficient to get the deal made, and would it be better that what the Cubs could do?

Frankly, I'm not convinced that the Giants could offer enough raw player talent in prospects to make a deal, despite the undeniable logic that they need a bat like Stanton's more than anyone.

The Cubs have to move major league talent in a deal for Stanton, given that they parted with Jimenez and Cease in the Quintana deal. So what would the Fish want? Baez and Happ to start, with the Cubs probably trying to get Miami to take Heyward off their hands to balance out some of the $$. That leaves them with a platoon of Zobrist and LaStella at 2B for 2018 (though if they popped for this deal quickly enough, they could land Neil Walker and leave the aging Z-man as the utility player).
   14. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: November 25, 2017 at 09:53 PM (#5581032)
assuming Desmond can still handle SS


That feels like a pretty big assumption. He's played one game there in two years. He also just had a terrible year with the bat, his second in three years. I'm not sure I'd be counting on Desmond to do that much next year, especially not be my starting SS. Especially given that Story, for all his struggles this year, was still a decent starter, and will only be 25 next season. The idea of Stanton in Coors is mouth-watering for a fan, but for the Rockies it feels a little off.

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