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Friday, March 12, 2010

Finger: Polanco’s Worth Supercedes Mere Statistics

Fingers Polanco? Wasn’t that a Mark Margolis role in an off-awful-Broadway play?

For one reason or another, some baseball insiders don’t believe in Placido Polanco. He’s too old to be given a three-year contract, some wrote. He’s clearly not the third baseman that Pedro Feliz was, others offer.

Whatever it is, the shift from second base (where he was a Gold Glover for two of the past three seasons) at age 34 for an average salary of $6 million per year, just wasn’t the smartest thing for the Phillies to do, it’s been written. Take this one from the popular web site, Major League Trade Rumors:

The Polanco signing is a candidate for the worst of the offseason.  The Tigers were unwilling to offer arbitration to their Type A free agent second baseman, presumably because they felt the risk of a one-year deal in the $6-7MM range outweighed the prospect of two draft picks.  The three-year, $18MM commitment the Phillies gave Polanco in early December was the polar opposite of the one year, $1MM deal the Cardinals gave Felipe Lopez two months later. 

But ask the men in uniform or the front offices what they think about Placido Polanco and the review is the exact opposite. Polanco is a baseball player, they say. Every action and reaction is based on the situation presented before him, regardless if they can be measured by some sort of formula, chart or graph. Need a fly ball, Polanco will hit one. Need a line drive or ground ball hit behind a runner, Polanco will do that, too.

...“Since I was a little kid playing back in the Dominican Republic, I knew I wasn’t going to be a power hitter so I had to learn how to handle the bat and put the ball in play,” he said. “I just worked really hard at that instead of trying to hit the ball out of the park.”

And maybe that’s why some of those numbers guys don’t like Polanco? He’s the kind of guy who makes stats about as valuable as the paper they’re printed on.

Repoz Posted: March 12, 2010 at 04:41 AM | 30 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: phillies, sabermetrics

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   1. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: March 12, 2010 at 04:54 AM (#3477877)
His head size supercedes mere regular-sized baseball caps.
   2. Something Other Posted: March 12, 2010 at 05:20 AM (#3477885)
He'd look pretty good on the Mets right about now.
   3. Crispix Attacks Posted: March 12, 2010 at 05:26 AM (#3477887)
Holy crap! I completely forgot he signed for the Phillies! Awesome.

The Mets should focus on getting Akinori Iwamura from the Pirates.
   4. Shock Posted: March 12, 2010 at 05:32 AM (#3477889)
Polanco is a baseball player, they say.


This is a guarnteed never-fails way to make me stop reading your column.
   5. Zipperholes Posted: March 12, 2010 at 05:45 AM (#3477897)
He's definitely a good example of actual value exceeding WAR or any other stat. He stays relatively healthy, plays hard and smart, doesn't strike out, doesn't make errors--there's something to be said for this kind of consistency and reliability, even if only for the peace of mind he brings to his teammates and coaches. But the idea that he can do "whatever the team needs at any given time" is overblown at this point in his career. For all the times he hits behind the runner or delivers a sacrifice fly, there are plenty where he hits a weak grounder to short.
   6. Tiboreau Posted: March 12, 2010 at 06:12 AM (#3477906)
He's definitely a good example of actual value exceeding WAR or any other stat.

Well, other than 2006 WAR has consistently considered him to be an above average player with all-star potential ('03, '05 & '07). Of course, a lot of that has to do with UZR's evaluation of his defense, but a player who can produce at a league average level offensively with above average defense at 2B & 3B is a valuable member to any team, especially when he throws in a few above average seasons with the bat, like the aforementioned years.

Now, his OPS+ has dropped from 121 to 101 to 88 over the past 3 years as he enters his mid-thirties, a potential danger zone for an infielder, but he's been a valuable player over his career so far--more valuable than it was thought among the some in the sabermetric community during his first tenure with the Phillies, I think.

That's what first came to mind when I saw the article's title.
   7. bond1 Posted: March 12, 2010 at 07:05 AM (#3477919)
Sure Polanco puts the ball in play because he never walks. His OBP last year was a league average 331. Big deal. Adam Kennedy's stats matches up pretty closely and he signed for just $1.25 million with the Nats.
   8. birdlives is one crazy ninja Posted: March 12, 2010 at 07:37 AM (#3477929)
He's gritty!
   9. Something Other Posted: March 12, 2010 at 09:22 AM (#3477938)
Sure Polanco puts the ball in play because he never walks. His OBP last year was a league average 331. Big deal. Adam Kennedy's stats matches up pretty closely and he signed for just $1.25 million with the Nats.


He'd also look pretty good on the Mets right about now.
   10. Tuque Posted: March 12, 2010 at 09:34 AM (#3477940)
There are entirely too many good-to-average second basemen these days. I'm glad Polanco's doing his part to even the playing field.
   11. Arva Posted: March 12, 2010 at 01:57 PM (#3477955)
I find it interesting that the Phillies originally chose David Bell over Polanco (sending Placido to Detroit for the arsonist fireman Ugueth Urbina) and have brought Polanco back now that he resembles Bell.
   12. AROM Posted: March 12, 2010 at 03:38 PM (#3477994)
He's definitely a good example of actual value exceeding WAR or any other stat.


Actually he's the kind of player WAR will value while simplistic anyalysis like looking at ops+ will undervalue. Polanco had 28.9 WAR from 2001-2008. By comparison, Derek Jeter had 35.3. Cherry-picking alert: Jeter was much better in 2009. 2001 was Polanco's first year as a full time player.

Phillies made a big mistake not just handing him the 3B job in 2005, and eating David Bell's contract. It very likely cost them the division that year, since they lost by only two games, Polanco was +14 batting runs for the Tigers, Bell was -23 batting runs for the Phillies, and 50 innings of 4.13 ERA (Urbina) is replaceable.
   13. Obi One Kenobi Nil Posted: March 12, 2010 at 03:44 PM (#3477998)
Finger Polanco?
   14. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: March 12, 2010 at 03:48 PM (#3478005)
Polanco was a very good player for a number of years. I'm not sure that he's a very good player any more. I'm fairly certain that he won't be a very good player in 2012.
   15. Iwakuma Chameleon (jonathan) Posted: March 12, 2010 at 03:57 PM (#3478010)
I swear there's a template out there somewhere for these things these guys just pass around.




edit: I think I'd actually be more understanding if that were really the case. It is spring, after all, what're you gonna write? I don't want to think professional writers and editors keep independently coming to this story idea and approving of it.
   16. AROM Posted: March 12, 2010 at 04:26 PM (#3478038)
Average players make 8-10 million. At 6 million the Phillies are just paying him to stay closer to average than to replacement level. I think he can manage that.
   17. billyshears Posted: March 12, 2010 at 04:37 PM (#3478047)
Why doesn't he hit line drives all the time? Or does he have to replenish his line drive hitting ability with a steady diet of sac flies?
   18. esseff Posted: March 12, 2010 at 05:11 PM (#3478071)
Uh, supersedes
   19. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 12, 2010 at 05:34 PM (#3478084)
Average players make 8-10 million. At 6 million the Phillies are just paying him to stay closer to average than to replacement level. I think he can manage that.

More like $7M, for a 2 WAR player, in the last two off-seasons though, IIRC. Hasn't the $/WAR fallen to about $3.5M?

The valuation isn't bad based on what he's done, but I'd be worried about a 34 y.o. 2B, on a three year decline, moving to a position he hasn't played in 5 years.
   20. greenback Posted: March 12, 2010 at 06:04 PM (#3478106)
Uh, supersedes

This might be the most common misspelling that I see.
   21. Petuniaviles Posted: March 12, 2010 at 06:35 PM (#3478119)
This might be the most common misspelling that I see.

I'll go with "Bobby Abreau"
   22. Jose Canusee Posted: March 12, 2010 at 06:40 PM (#3478127)
A Supercedes is a high-powered car from Daimler Benz. I see them a lot at work but outside it's "it's".
   23. AROM Posted: March 12, 2010 at 06:44 PM (#3478129)
I'll go with "Bobby Abreau"


I prefer the spelling if he went on the Howard Stern show.

Bob Abuee Bob Abuee Bob Abuee
   24. fhomess Posted: March 12, 2010 at 07:44 PM (#3478167)
Every action and reaction is based on the situation presented before him, regardless if they can be measured by some sort of formula, chart or graph. Need a fly ball, Polanco will hit one. Need a line drive or ground ball hit behind a runner, Polanco will do that, too.

Why doesn't every situation call for a home run? Can he hit a home run on demand?
   25. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: March 12, 2010 at 07:50 PM (#3478171)
Why doesn't every situation call for a home run? Can he hit a home run on demand?

:-) Yes, a home run is always the optimal offensive outcome.
   26. Tricky Dick Posted: March 13, 2010 at 12:28 AM (#3478293)
Uh, supersedes


This might be the most common misspelling that I see.


This is also an odd use of the word supersede. "Supersede" means replace or take the place of.

By the way, although I think Polanco is a decent signing for the Phillies, this article makes such stupid arguments that I start to have second thoughts about my original opinion.
   27. Zipperholes Posted: March 13, 2010 at 01:05 AM (#3478310)
Average players make 8-10 million. At 6 million the Phillies are just paying him to stay closer to average than to replacement level. I think he can manage that.
Well, average free agents make 8-10 million. But don't you need to include cost-controlled players here? Whatever the salary of the "average 3B" is, Longoria and others bring that number down.
   28. Designated Sitter (GGC) Posted: March 13, 2010 at 01:24 AM (#3478316)
What I want to know is how to pronounce birdlives's handle. I imagine it is a sentence with the noun "bird" and the verb "lives", but what if "bird" is really an adjective modifying "lives"?
   29. Crispix Attacks Posted: March 13, 2010 at 01:28 AM (#3478318)
And what kind of ethnicity is the name Nycti Gersfan?
   30. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 13, 2010 at 02:20 AM (#3478337)
GGC, I always assume it's "bird-LEE-vayce" as if it's a Spanish word I don't know.

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