Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Saturday, March 22, 2014

FiveThirtyEight | When Spring Training Matters

We then find that spring productivity is statistically significant when predicting actual performance in the upcoming season, even after controlling for a player’s Marcel projection. However, while significant, the effect is extremely small: To raise his expected regular-season wOBA by just a single point, a typical player would need to hit for a wOBA roughly 17 points higher than expected during the spring.

bobm Posted: March 22, 2014 at 01:54 PM | 2 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: spring training

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: March 22, 2014 at 04:48 PM (#4675431)
So that means that Cervelli will only hit .280 this year? I'm majorly disappointed.
   2. cardsfanboy Posted: March 22, 2014 at 07:14 PM (#4675483)
Drawback is that the chart they use is probably not that useful right now, with a week still remaining those numbers could quickly change.

I know that previous studies on the matter have said something like a .200 swing in slugging (between career and spring) is usually a good indicator, but that average and obp really wasn't. I like the system they use at 538, by looking at a marcel projection instead of career numbers.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Ray (RDP)
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogRuben Amaro Jr., on standing pat at deadline
(13 - 7:45am, Aug 01)
Last: Jeltzandini

NewsblogOTP - July 2014: Republicans Lose To Democrats For Sixth Straight Year In Congressional Baseball Game
(3996 - 7:26am, Aug 01)
Last: Joey B.: posting for the kids of northeast Ohio

NewsblogTigers To Acquire David Price
(74 - 6:59am, Aug 01)
Last: bookbook

NewsblogThe Dark Side of Booming Local TV Deals
(1 - 6:46am, Aug 01)
Last: Harveys Wallbangers

NewsblogJULY 31 2014 OMNICHATTER/TRADE DEADLINE CHATTER
(365 - 6:43am, Aug 01)
Last: chisoxcollector

NewsblogCardinals Acquire John Lackey
(94 - 6:41am, Aug 01)
Last: Harveys Wallbangers

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread- July 2014
(1075 - 6:23am, Aug 01)
Last: NJ in DC (Now unemployed!)

NewsblogAthletics, Twins Swap Tommy Milone, Sam Fuld
(23 - 3:45am, Aug 01)
Last: Dr. Vaux

NewsblogOT: The Soccer Thread July, 2014
(557 - 3:04am, Aug 01)
Last: Swedish Chef

NewsblogA's Acquire Lester, Gomes For Cespedes
(128 - 3:00am, Aug 01)
Last: PreservedFish

NewsblogCliff Lee Re-Injures Elbow
(18 - 12:55am, Aug 01)
Last: Joyful Calculus Instructor

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 7-31-2014
(20 - 12:20am, Aug 01)
Last: jwb

NewsblogJim Bowden Caught Stealing From Fake Twitter Account, Deletes Everything
(24 - 12:06am, Aug 01)
Last: if nature called, ladodger34 would listen

NewsblogEric Chavez Retires
(35 - 11:24pm, Jul 31)
Last: AROM

NewsblogESPN: Twins Sign "Out Of Nowhere" Prospect
(83 - 11:21pm, Jul 31)
Last: Rennie's Tenet

Page rendered in 0.1621 seconds
52 querie(s) executed