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Saturday, March 22, 2014

FiveThirtyEight | When Spring Training Matters

We then find that spring productivity is statistically significant when predicting actual performance in the upcoming season, even after controlling for a player’s Marcel projection. However, while significant, the effect is extremely small: To raise his expected regular-season wOBA by just a single point, a typical player would need to hit for a wOBA roughly 17 points higher than expected during the spring.

bobm Posted: March 22, 2014 at 01:54 PM | 2 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: spring training

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   1. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: March 22, 2014 at 04:48 PM (#4675431)
So that means that Cervelli will only hit .280 this year? I'm majorly disappointed.
   2. cardsfanboy Posted: March 22, 2014 at 07:14 PM (#4675483)
Drawback is that the chart they use is probably not that useful right now, with a week still remaining those numbers could quickly change.

I know that previous studies on the matter have said something like a .200 swing in slugging (between career and spring) is usually a good indicator, but that average and obp really wasn't. I like the system they use at 538, by looking at a marcel projection instead of career numbers.

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