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Saturday, October 16, 2010

Flanagan: Don’t look past the 2011 Royals so quickly

Not while Jarrod Dyson is going to be worth…486 (TFR) Total ####### Runs for the season!

Many Royals observers seem eager to look toward the 2012 season when the first big wave of general manager Dayton Moore’s draftees should find their way to the bigs.

But has everyone forgotten there’s a 2011?

“We certainly haven’t thrown away 2011,” Moore said. “It’s always going to be our goal to put on the field a team that can contend for the division title.”

...The Royals also are intrigued by the possibility of Jarrod Dyson patrolling center field next season. Manager Ned Yost already has labeled Dyson as a guy who can save his team two runs a game with his incredible speed in the outfield. Dyson, if he can improve his bunting and his on-base percentage, also could be a major weapon at the top of the order.

“When he gets on base,” second baseman Mike Aviles said, “that’s almost automatically a run because he’ll either steal second, force a wild throw, or cause the pitchers to get so distracted that the guys behind him in the order get some fat pitches to hit.”

 

Repoz Posted: October 16, 2010 at 11:06 AM | 11 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: projections, royals, sabermetrics

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   1. Magnum RA Posted: October 16, 2010 at 12:12 PM (#3665601)
At what speed should I look past them?
   2. S.F. Giangst Posted: October 16, 2010 at 12:26 PM (#3665604)
Jarrod Dyson Sphere of Influence would make a great user name...
   3. Eric J is Financed by a Rich Grandpa Posted: October 16, 2010 at 02:01 PM (#3665643)
...The Royals also are intrigued by the possibility of Jarrod Dyson patrolling center field next season. Manager Ned Yost already has labeled Dyson as a guy who can save his team two runs a game with his incredible speed in the outfield. Dyson, if he can improve his bunting and his on-base percentage, also could be a major weapon at the top of the order.

Makes you wonder why nobody has tried the no-hit speedy center fielder approach before.
   4. WillYoung Posted: October 16, 2010 at 02:29 PM (#3665650)
Just three seasons ago, Twins fans were promised Carlos Gomez would win "a game a week" by himself.
   5. The elusive Robert Denby Posted: October 16, 2010 at 07:13 PM (#3665781)
Alex Gordon, if he can hit like George Brett, also could be a major weapon in the three-spot.
   6. Walt Davis Posted: October 16, 2010 at 07:39 PM (#3665792)
Just three seasons ago, Twins fans were promised Carlos Gomez would win "a game a week" by himself.

He probably did. Unfortunately he also lost 2 games a week.

Looking Dyson up ... this phenom is already 25. But he crushed the ball in his cup of coffee -- 4 doubles, 2 triples and a HR in 65 PA with a 9/1 SB/CS! And he was on a +31 defensive pace!!

Honestly, that does look like some serious speed. He obviously won't hit for average or power but the walk rate is decent (majors and minors). Anyway, I suppose there's some chance he's more Gary Pettis than Joey Gathright.
   7. Walt Davis Posted: October 16, 2010 at 09:02 PM (#3665886)
Anyhoo, the 2011 Royals already look pretty forgettable to me ...

Kendall (OK)
Butler (good)
Aviles (OK)
Betancourt (meh)
?? Betemit ??
DeJesus (probably back to normal)
???
???
???

and no bench to speak of. Gordon continued to hit horribly, Kila continued to hit horribly. I suppose an OF of DeJesus, Blanco, Dyson and Maier would pick it but would be lucky to hit 20 HR combined.

The starting staff after Greinke looks terrible (Bruce Chen had a team-best 101 ERA+ and he's an FA I think). Greinke presumably will have results more in line with his peripherals which will help but otherwise there's no starting pitching here.

Anyway, the 2010 Royals had terrible pitching but somehow league-average offense. Given what they've got on hand at the moment, it seems unlikely they'd repeat the latter and virtually guaranteed they'd repeat the former. Let's see how good Moore's offseason is.

I almost said that with a straight face.
   8. Justin 'The Cespedobear' T Posted: October 16, 2010 at 09:07 PM (#3665892)
I usually stare at car accidents for as long as I can, actually.
   9. Voros McCracken, Human Shield Posted: October 17, 2010 at 03:44 PM (#3666664)
Ka'aihue had a good September and otherwise his BABIP was unusually low for a non-pitcher.

It would be silly to give up on him now particularly since whomever plays 1B/DH with Butler appears to be a placeholder for when Hosmer is deemed ready.

Gordon can probably turn it around too, but I'm thinking he'll need a change of scenery to do it.

Moustakas had a nice year and an unusual one in that he hit 36 homers and only struck out 67 times. The downside is he doesn't draw many walks, at least not yet. But if you hit for power and don't strike out a lot, you can be an effective hitter without walking at all.

But the highly drafted pitching in the minors isn't performing quite as well as the hitters.
   10. Walt Davis Posted: October 17, 2010 at 07:29 PM (#3666776)
I didn't mean to suggest they should give up on Kila or Gordon -- what options do they have really? Just that you can't count on them to be productive ... and both will be 27 next year so they're unlikely to get any better. As much as we like to make fun of them and it was surely pure luck, Pods put up a 107 OPS+ and Guillen hung in for a 102 and the Royals would be reasonably lucky if Gordon and Kila surpassed that production.

Point being I think we can look past this team pretty quickly. Butler, Greinke, Soria and maybe Moutsakas (had forgotten about him) are players to keep an eye on in 2011 but the rest of the Royals remain completely forgettable and of marginal talent. They weren't a young team in 2010 (Butler the only position player under 25, the only "starter" under 27, no young promising pitchers). The 2011 offseason Royals look pretty much exactly like the 2010 offseason Royals so I'll keep looking past them until Moore signs Lyle Overbay for 2/$10 at which point I'll stop long enough to laugh. :-)
   11. 'Spos Posted: October 17, 2010 at 08:56 PM (#3666803)
Jarrod Dyson Sphere of Influence...

...or Jarrod Dyson Sphere Monk

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