Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Friday, June 29, 2012

Fleming: Can Mike Trout hit .400?

Further upstream…

Mike Trout is currently hitting



.345. Barring a long slump, it is likely that he will end the season having posted one of the ten best batting averages for a twenty-year old hitter in baseball history.

Here’s the current list… [Alex Rodriguez, Ty Cobb, Al Kaline, Mel Ott, Jimmie Foxx, Ted Williams, John McGraw, Stuffy McInnis, Cecil Travis, Arky Vaughan]

Seeing this list got me thinking about the possibility of Mike Trout hitting .400. I don’t think he’ll hit .400 this year…but is there a chance he can hit .400 someday? ... Ten players is a small sample size to draw definitive conclusions from, but Trout is keeping good company. Six of the ten players listed won batting titles. Four of the ten came within striking distance of hitting .400. Two hit .400. It’s impressive company…

Trout’s strikeout rate is currently sitting at 18.5%, which is double the rates of all the [recent .400] challengers except [Todd] Helton. It is highly unlikely that Mike Trout could hit .400 while striking out 18% of the time…he would need a BABIP close to .500 to pull it off. Even a strikeout rate of 15% would require a BABIP of about .470 for Trout to hit .400.

Using some quick and dirty math, I’d say that Trout would need to just about halve his strikeout rate to make a serious run at a .400 batting average… [Rod] Carew managed to cut his strikeout rate in half. He did so while improving his walk rate, which lead to his spectacular 1977 season in Minnesota.

Sooner or later we’ll see another .400 hitter in the major leagues. I think it’ll come sooner rather than later, and I think that Mike Trout will be the guy to do it. I’ll give you an extra reason why… I think most fans, if they thought about it long enough, would agree that the biggest problem with the game as it is played is the huge number of strikeouts, which is continuing to creep up steadily… I think that major league baseball will decide that there are too many strikeouts, and they’ll figure out a way to increase contact while maintaining a reasonable balance between offense and defense.
A rule change that reduces the overall strikeout would help batting averages. And it would give Mike Trout a shot at hitting .400.

The District Attorney Posted: June 29, 2012 at 02:36 PM | 0 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: angels, history, mike trout, sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.



<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF


Thanks to
for his generous support.


You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOTP 2016 October 24: Breitbart Radio Exclusive: Curt Schilling Joins Breitbart News Rotation Weekdays 9AM to 11AM ET
(436 - 7:15am, Oct 26)
Last: You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR)

NewsblogOT: NBA 2016-17 Preseason Thread
(284 - 6:20am, Oct 26)
Last: Alex meets the threshold for granular review

NewsblogArizona Diamondbacks land Red Sox exec Amiel Sawdaye
(27 - 3:49am, Oct 26)
Last: ReggieThomasLives

NewsblogThe Big League Prospect Who Became a Mob Hit Man - The New York Times
(19 - 1:30am, Oct 26)
Last: the Hugh Jorgan returns

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 10-25-2016
(18 - 12:49am, Oct 26)
Last: Perry

(804 - 12:43am, Oct 26)
Last: shoewizard

NewsblogEven The Data Thinks The Cubs May Have Been Cursed | FiveThirtyEight
(31 - 12:33am, Oct 26)
Last: the Hugh Jorgan returns

NewsblogAre statheads responsible for the most exciting postseason in years
(29 - 12:14am, Oct 26)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogA 'Major League' interview with director David S. Ward
(2 - 12:11am, Oct 26)
Last: Cargo Cultist

NewsblogHeyman - Kyle Schwarber Expected To Be Activated For World Series
(33 - 10:45pm, Oct 25)
Last: Jose Remains The Most Absurd Thing on the Site

NewsblogYankee Stadium being updated with new areas for fans
(12 - 10:17pm, Oct 25)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogChief Wahoo, Cleveland Indians' logo, heads to the World Series. Prepare for outrage. - Chicago Tribune
(51 - 6:37pm, Oct 25)
Last: Greg K

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1998 Ballot
(3 - 6:11pm, Oct 25)
Last: MrC.

Gonfalon CubsBring on the outsourced 5 minute Indians preview
(90 - 4:34pm, Oct 25)
Last: zonk

NewsblogCubs clinching pennant changed mindset that has been around far too long - Chicago Tribune
(29 - 3:28pm, Oct 25)
Last: Moses Taylor, Unwavering Optimist

Page rendered in 0.2990 seconds
45 querie(s) executed