Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Friday, June 29, 2012

Fleming: Can Mike Trout hit .400?

Further upstream…

Mike Trout is currently hitting

.338

.344

.345. Barring a long slump, it is likely that he will end the season having posted one of the ten best batting averages for a twenty-year old hitter in baseball history.

Here’s the current list… [Alex Rodriguez, Ty Cobb, Al Kaline, Mel Ott, Jimmie Foxx, Ted Williams, John McGraw, Stuffy McInnis, Cecil Travis, Arky Vaughan]

Seeing this list got me thinking about the possibility of Mike Trout hitting .400. I don’t think he’ll hit .400 this year…but is there a chance he can hit .400 someday? ... Ten players is a small sample size to draw definitive conclusions from, but Trout is keeping good company. Six of the ten players listed won batting titles. Four of the ten came within striking distance of hitting .400. Two hit .400. It’s impressive company…

Trout’s strikeout rate is currently sitting at 18.5%, which is double the rates of all the [recent .400] challengers except [Todd] Helton. It is highly unlikely that Mike Trout could hit .400 while striking out 18% of the time…he would need a BABIP close to .500 to pull it off. Even a strikeout rate of 15% would require a BABIP of about .470 for Trout to hit .400.

Using some quick and dirty math, I’d say that Trout would need to just about halve his strikeout rate to make a serious run at a .400 batting average… [Rod] Carew managed to cut his strikeout rate in half. He did so while improving his walk rate, which lead to his spectacular 1977 season in Minnesota.

Sooner or later we’ll see another .400 hitter in the major leagues. I think it’ll come sooner rather than later, and I think that Mike Trout will be the guy to do it. I’ll give you an extra reason why… I think most fans, if they thought about it long enough, would agree that the biggest problem with the game as it is played is the huge number of strikeouts, which is continuing to creep up steadily… I think that major league baseball will decide that there are too many strikeouts, and they’ll figure out a way to increase contact while maintaining a reasonable balance between offense and defense.
                                
A rule change that reduces the overall strikeout would help batting averages. And it would give Mike Trout a shot at hitting .400.

The District Attorney Posted: June 29, 2012 at 02:36 PM | 0 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: angels, history, mike trout, sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Mike Emeigh
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOTP - 2016 February 8: There’s baseball, politics … and real problems
(1455 - 8:29pm, Feb 11)
Last: I'm not Black I'm Orange Julius

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - February 2016
(705 - 8:23pm, Feb 11)
Last: Tom Cervo, backup catcher

NewsblogHall of Fame voters exhibit a clear anti-recency bias.
(7 - 8:16pm, Feb 11)
Last: Ulysses S. Fairsmith

NewsblogOT: Soccer Thread - February 2016
(142 - 8:10pm, Feb 11)
Last: Baldrick

NewsblogMLB New data results show high school baseball similar to MLB
(1 - 8:09pm, Feb 11)
Last: Belfry Bob

NewsblogKeith Law: 2016 ranking of all 30 farm systems (INSIDER)
(45 - 8:05pm, Feb 11)
Last: Cargo Cultist

NewsblogEx-MLB commissioner Bud Selig to teach at Arizona State's law school
(37 - 7:53pm, Feb 11)
Last: Morty Causa

NewsblogBrian Kenny: HALL OF FAME'S ANTI-RECENCY BIAS
(62 - 7:24pm, Feb 11)
Last: CrosbyBird

NewsblogThe Uncertain Timetable for Cord-Cutting in Baseball's Future
(67 - 7:03pm, Feb 11)
Last: Greg K

NewsblogThe Crack in the Defensive Spectrum
(42 - 5:38pm, Feb 11)
Last: PreservedFish

NewsblogDeveloping The baseballr Package For R – The Hardball Times
(2 - 4:27pm, Feb 11)
Last: Ron J

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 2-11-2016
(30 - 2:59pm, Feb 11)
Last: vortex of dissipation

NewsblogMLB's top five smartest offseason moves | MLB.com
(27 - 2:06pm, Feb 11)
Last: Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad)

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 1990 Discussion
(29 - 1:36pm, Feb 11)
Last: ThickieDon

NewsblogLourdes Gurriel, Yulieski Gurriel defect Cuba | MLB.com
(24 - 12:57pm, Feb 11)
Last: Cabbage

Page rendered in 0.6906 seconds
45 querie(s) executed