Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Friday, June 29, 2012

Fleming: Can Mike Trout hit .400?

Further upstream…

Mike Trout is currently hitting

.338

.344

.345. Barring a long slump, it is likely that he will end the season having posted one of the ten best batting averages for a twenty-year old hitter in baseball history.

Here’s the current list… [Alex Rodriguez, Ty Cobb, Al Kaline, Mel Ott, Jimmie Foxx, Ted Williams, John McGraw, Stuffy McInnis, Cecil Travis, Arky Vaughan]

Seeing this list got me thinking about the possibility of Mike Trout hitting .400. I don’t think he’ll hit .400 this year…but is there a chance he can hit .400 someday? ... Ten players is a small sample size to draw definitive conclusions from, but Trout is keeping good company. Six of the ten players listed won batting titles. Four of the ten came within striking distance of hitting .400. Two hit .400. It’s impressive company…

Trout’s strikeout rate is currently sitting at 18.5%, which is double the rates of all the [recent .400] challengers except [Todd] Helton. It is highly unlikely that Mike Trout could hit .400 while striking out 18% of the time…he would need a BABIP close to .500 to pull it off. Even a strikeout rate of 15% would require a BABIP of about .470 for Trout to hit .400.

Using some quick and dirty math, I’d say that Trout would need to just about halve his strikeout rate to make a serious run at a .400 batting average… [Rod] Carew managed to cut his strikeout rate in half. He did so while improving his walk rate, which lead to his spectacular 1977 season in Minnesota.

Sooner or later we’ll see another .400 hitter in the major leagues. I think it’ll come sooner rather than later, and I think that Mike Trout will be the guy to do it. I’ll give you an extra reason why… I think most fans, if they thought about it long enough, would agree that the biggest problem with the game as it is played is the huge number of strikeouts, which is continuing to creep up steadily… I think that major league baseball will decide that there are too many strikeouts, and they’ll figure out a way to increase contact while maintaining a reasonable balance between offense and defense.
                                
A rule change that reduces the overall strikeout would help batting averages. And it would give Mike Trout a shot at hitting .400.

The District Attorney Posted: June 29, 2012 at 02:36 PM | 0 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: angels, history, mike trout, sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Mike Emeigh
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogESPN Suspends Keith Law From Twitter For Defending Evolution
(99 - 3:12am, Nov 23)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogCashman in wait-and-see mode on retooling Yanks | yankees.com
(18 - 2:55am, Nov 23)
Last: Pat Rapper's Delight

NewsblogOTP Politics November 2014: Mets Deny Bias in Ticket Official’s Firing
(4169 - 2:28am, Nov 23)
Last: Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - November 2014
(966 - 2:27am, Nov 23)
Last: Random Transaction Generator

NewsblogDeadspin: Curt Schilling’s Son Accidentally Brings Fake Grenade To Logan Airport
(12 - 1:50am, Nov 23)
Last: ptodd

NewsblogOT - November 2014 College Football thread
(553 - 1:35am, Nov 23)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogRays name managerial finalists: Cash, Ibanez, Wakamatsu | Tampa Bay Times
(12 - 12:17am, Nov 23)
Last: rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 11-21-2014
(48 - 11:13pm, Nov 22)
Last: Sweatpants

NewsblogBraves shopping Justin Upton at a steep price | New York Post
(28 - 11:04pm, Nov 22)
Last: Squash

NewsblogFemale Sportswriter Asks: 'Why Are All My Twitter Followers Men?' | ThinkProgress
(134 - 10:49pm, Nov 22)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogMike Schmidt: Marlins' Stanton too rich too early? | www.palmbeachpost.com
(24 - 10:32pm, Nov 22)
Last: Moeball

NewsblogFriars show interest in dealing for Bruce | MLB.com
(19 - 10:19pm, Nov 22)
Last: Moeball

NewsblogPirates DFA Ike Davis, clear path for Pedro Alvarez - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
(4 - 10:00pm, Nov 22)
Last: jingoist

NewsblogMLB.com: White Sox Land Adam LaRoche With 2 Year/$25M Deal
(19 - 8:03pm, Nov 22)
Last: boteman

NewsblogKemp drawing interest, raising chance he's the Dodgers OF dealt - CBSSports.com
(9 - 7:26pm, Nov 22)
Last: PreservedFish

Page rendered in 0.2594 seconds
51 querie(s) executed