Well, by Sickels, Guerra is the Mets #2 prospect (B+), Carp #16 (C) and ... well, not sure what Pelfrey's considered at this point but he wasn't that good last year. A package that would beat what the A's got for Swisher would probably have to be at least FMart (#1 but also B+) and Guerra plus, oh, Humber maybe (B-, #7 prospect). Even if the A's believe in Pelfrey, you're gonna have to do better than Carp to beat the Sox package.

Carp ... c'mon.

Now, did Omar know Swisher was available? Well, Beane would have to be dumb not to see if he could get something to beat the Sox offer ... unless maybe Gonzalez and De Los Santos are like his 2 favorite prospects anywhere. But then Williams seems to have a thing about keeping his deals private and may have told Beane that if he got word about Swisher being shopped around, his offer ws off the table.

But yeah, if the Mets are going to make a move, I'd say pitching's more important. I know, a run's a run but 2B or C are the only positions they're definitely weak for 2008 and no Swisher-equivalent is available at those positions. (I know, Church isn't really a full-time player and the chances of Alou being healthy are low and Delgado might be in decline, but you don't mortgage the farm for Alou insurance.)

know, a run's a run but 2B or C are the only positions they're definitely weak for 2008 and no Swisher-equivalent is available at those positions.

Mark Ellis is probably available, and approximately Swisher-equivalent (though not signed for as long). However, the Mets probably consider themselves set at 2B by bringing back Castillo (and at C with Schneider).

I can't get excited about missing the boat on Swisher.

Keep your eye on the prize (Santana).

I can't get excited about missing the boat on Swisher.

Keep your eye on the prize (Santana).

The article is ridiculous in the value it places on Pelfrey and Carp, but Swisher is worth more than Santana, given the contract situation of both.

I wonder why Omar didn't get Dan Haren and Nick Swisher for Heilman and two of these three: Guerra, Pelfrey, Humber (as the Mets need to keep one pitcher as El Duque backup). No doubt the inclusion of Heilman, an old time Beane fave, would've been the deal breaker here. Maybe Beane would've sent Suzuki along as well if the Mets included Carp. What was Omar thinking?

The article is ridiculous in the value it places on Pelfrey and Carp, but Swisher is worth more than Santana, given the contract situation of both.

Uh, no he isn't. Not even close.

But then Williams seems to have a thing about keeping his deals private and may have told Beane that if he got word about Swisher being shopped around, his offer was off the table.

You have to think that this was pretty much the case. From what I have read, Williams had to call up Beane and beg him to trade Swisher. Since there were no previous rumors about Swisher being dealt, Williams finds himself in a tough position. He has to give Beane a deal he can't refuse. Thus, there really is no reason to bring a third party to leverage against Williams. Moreover, people talk, and the longer the two teams haggle over the price of Swisher, the greater the possibility that word gets out. So Williams has to act quickly and decisively. It would be safe to say that every other GM was kept in the dark about this deal, and that is not a knock against their ability. They did not know because Beane and Williams wanted it that way.

So Williams has to act quickly and decisively.

I think this is Williams strength as a GM. He sometimes makes bad decisions, but at least he makes them quickly and with purpose. A lot of the bottom feeding teams have an annoying tendency to hem and haw and reduce the effectiveness of every single thing they do, good or bad. David Littlefield, for one, was absolutely devastating in this respect. He refused to take a single major risk at any point of his tenure post-Giles trade and it absolutely neutered the franchise.

If Kenny thinks his team has a chance to contend this year, then the Swisher deal is a great deal. He may be wrong, but given his paradigm, it's the right deal (and a deal that, honestly, almost no other GM in the game would have been able to pull off). It's very difficult to argue against the idea that Swisher is the best player in the deal, adjusting for TINSTAAPP. It may be that the sum of the two prospects exceed Swisher's production, but using the metric of "the team that gets the best player wins the deal", Williams wins this one.

It would be neat to see what Williams could do with a better personnel director managing prospect development. It's fun to see a GM with big balls go up against another GM with big balls, in that it happens so rarely.

Mike Pelfrey, Mike Carp, and Deolis Guerra

I'm sick of people thinking that any random three prospects from any system could match what the White Sox gave up. Unless I'm mistaken, there are no three prospects anywhere in the Mets system that could match De Los Santos, Gio Gonzalez and Ryan Sweeney for total value.

Mets fans, I might be wrong, but it still annoys me that the proposed Mets package above is vastly inferior to the package the netted Swisher.

EDIT: Missed your comment, Walt. I'm actually probably the only known WS fan in favor of this trade, as I really like KW's record in trading prospects, but it still really hurts to give up DLS. Guys who put up ace numbers in the minor league like his don't come along very often. He could be the best talent produced by the farm system in a decade.

Gio and Sweeney I can live with losing.

So Williams has to act quickly and decisively.

I think this is Williams strength as a GM. He sometimes makes bad decisions, but at least he makes them quickly and with purpose. A lot of the bottom feeding teams have an annoying tendency to hem and haw and reduce the effectiveness of every single thing they do, good or bad.

It's never boring to be a White Sox fan. Frustrating sometimes, and worrisome all the time, but never boring.

Unless I'm mistaken, there are no three prospects anywhere in the Mets system that could match De Los Santos, Gio Gonzalez and Ryan Sweeney for total value.

I'd say Fermart, Gomez and your favorite pitcher in the system (i.e., Pelfrey, Guerra, Mulvey, Humber, Kuntz--hey, he was a top pick) are just as valuable, probably more.

David Littlefield, for one, was absolutely devastating in this respect.

Au contraire! That Morris deal was quick, decisive, and out of the blue. :-)

I think it's fair to say that Littlefield was absolutely devastating in almost all respects. Too slow, too quick, too timid, too gutsy, too cheap, too profligate.

Yet, amazingly, even he had his share of successful moves (Bay, LaRoche ... was he the one who ripped Williams off on Ritchie?)

Anyway, the key point is that Swisher is about the last thing the 2008 Mets need so it doesn't matter if Omar knew he was "available" or not. Yes, Swisher would be quite useful on the 2009-2012 Mets, but if he wants him then, he can always bowl over Kenny with an offer -- there's no point paying top dollar to get Swisher now.

Man, Cot's is just amazing, they've already moved Swisher over to the Sox page.

Anyway, on Swisher vs. Santana ... an interesting question. With the option, Swisher is 5/$36 ... what a nice contract. Assume Santana at 7/$140. Let's ignore those last two years cuz I'm lazy and pretend it's 5/$100. So, will Santana be worth $64 M more than Swisher?

Damn! Just when I need them, Dan didn't include the $ value of Swisher in his TO thread. Serves me right.

Using BPro, Swisher's WARP should be about 6, maybe 6.5 (their defensive numbers for him are reasonable so that should be about right). Santana cruises in at around 10-10.5. So 4 wins, 13 M a year ... yep that's worth it. (There'd be regression to the mean on both those "projections", but the gap should still be about the same.)

But then we get to the tough stuff like injury risk and age factors which both work against Santana and things like "pennants won" or playoff impact which work in Santana's favor. I'll still go with Santana ... unless maybe Swisher can be an average or better defensive CF. (Again, for the Mets, Swisher does not meet a real need so Santana would be the obvious choice)

Here's a question. From the smart folks here, I understand that BPro's replacement level for hitters is way too low because it assumes replacement level for both hitting and fielding. This results in an average player being about 4 WARP so Swisher is 2-2.5 wins above average. But is their replacement level on pitcher's OK such that an average starter would be about 2 WARP and Santana is really 8 wins above average? That would be staggering.

Nice research, Walt. I do think that Swisher can be a league-average CF. I also think that Santana's second half was alarming in that it provides some evidence that the innings are starting to take their toll, as they do with almost anyone. I'm fundamentally opposed to such outrageously long-term contracts for pitchers. I may make an exception if the dollars don't matter much (as can be reasonably argued with the Mets) AND if I don't have to give up minor leaguers likely to make significant, low-cost, big-league contributions.

Guerra is in the ballpark with de los Santos and, especially, Gonzalez.

But is their replacement level on pitcher's OK such that an average starter would be about 2 WARP and Santana is really 8 wins above average? That would be staggering.

Well, by pitching runs above average for Santana from BPro, last 4 years, 47, 38, 33, 24.

Man, Cot's is just amazing, they've already moved Swisher over to the Sox page.

That was done within a few hours of the deal. I checked Swisher's contract over there before filing my story around 6:30 Thursday night, and I went to the White Sox page first because I assumed - based on past experience - that he was already moved.

But is their replacement level on pitcher's OK such that an average starter would be about 2 WARP and Santana is really 8 wins above average? That would be staggering.

If anything it's worse. I'll put it this way- jose lima's 2005 (with a shiny ERA of 6.99) is worth 3 runs ABOVE Davenport's replacement level.

The article is ridiculous in the value it places on Pelfrey and Carp, but Swisher is worth more than Santana, given the contract situation of both.[\quote]


Uh, no he isn't. Not even close.

If my GM gave away Swisher in order to get Santana I'd be severely pisssed off.

Using his Zips projection and Tango's replacement level gets you Santana as being around a 6 WAR player. Swisher comes out as about 5 WAR. Swisher has a whopping amount of surplus value on his contract - I was under the impression that the package was better than those rumored for Santana and I still don't like it.

Well, by pitching runs above average for Santana from BPro, last 4 years, 47, 38, 33, 24.

Really. Wow, that comes out around 4 wins above average, so just 2 better than Swisher (I think).

I'll put it this way- jose lima's 2005 (with a shiny ERA of 6.99) is worth 3 runs ABOVE Davenport's replacement level.

Brought to you by the folks who think Miguel Cabrera is an above-average 3B defensively. :-)

Ooh, just thought of a very cool Swisher comp, assuming he can handle CF -- Rick Monday. Monday was also low-ish average, good OBP, good power (for the time) and regularly posted OPS+ in the 125-135 range. So much better than I thought he was at the time (and I thought he was good). A healthier Monday is HoF-worthy ... as is, he basically had Puckett's career.

Swisher for 5 years at half the market price or Santana at 8 years (2008 plus a 7 year extension) at market price? I don't think it's close.

Who is the Sean Foreman of Cot's? Whoever it is probably deserves more credit than they are currently getting, that's a helluva site.

Cot's = amazing resource. The quality of the site goes beyond just contractual info, I just found this out recently while navigating through the site and finding other content.

"Guys who put up ace numbers in the minor league like his don't come along very often. "

Eh, live armed pitchers dominating the SAL happens more often than you'd think.

And you are nuts if you take Swish over Santana. I dont care about contracts, surplus value or WRAR; anyone who would take Swish over Santana is ignoring the rarity of talent. Above-average outfielders aren't especially rare. Not that they grow on trees but there are enough out there and it isn't rare to draft and develop a Nick Swisher on your own.
Now finding or developing the best pitcher throwing a baseball these days is incredibly rare.
If you want to win a championship you've got to overpay for the kind of talent that head and shoulders above anyone else you'd put in there

Omar, get this #@%#$!$ deal done!