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Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Fonzie Forever: Feliciano To Be Mets’ Setup Man ... Is This Good?

Feliciano: A bag full of soul and tricks.

We all know that Pedro Feliciano has been used as a lefty specialist over the years. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that he’s had a lot of trouble with righties. Here are his splits against right-handed hitters over the last few seasons:

2009: .264/.365/.486 in 86 PA
2008: .357/.453/.561 in 118 PA
2007: .221/.325/.371 in 163 PA
2006: .266/.354/.349 in 129 PA

In general, it is an underwhelming line. Aside from 2007, righties have hit pretty well against Feliciano. Here, however, is where we have to be careful about our use of statistics: Knowing that Pedro has dominated left-handed hitters over the last few years, and that he’s been brought in to neutralize tough lefties, it may be that his stats against righties are not indicative of his true abilities.

Imagine the following scenario: Mets versus Braves. Feliciano comes into the game to face the lefty Adam LaRoche, righty Chipper Jones, and lefty Brian McCann. He strikes out LaRoche. Instead of facing Jones, he walks him. Then, he gets McCann to hit into a double play. He played to his strengths as a guy who dominates lefties, and he walked the dangerous righty.

Repoz Posted: March 30, 2010 at 01:15 PM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mets, sabermetrics

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   1. billyshears Posted: March 30, 2010 at 02:12 PM (#3488591)
Is "eighth inning guy" officially a role now? How long before the MSM ####### that relievers can't do their jobs because they don't know if they will be pitching in the eighth inning or not?
   2. HowardMegdal Posted: March 30, 2010 at 02:16 PM (#3488593)
I happen to think Feliciano is a solid bet as the eighth inning guy. As for the comment in 1, I'm pretty sure that already happens, doesn't it? A big knock on Willie was not telling every single relief pitcher when he would be pitching. Given the legit knocks on Willie, I always found this amusing.
   3. RJ in TO Posted: March 30, 2010 at 02:16 PM (#3488594)
Is "eighth inning guy" officially a role now?

Yes, althought it has traditionally been referred to as the "set-up" role.
   4. Spivey Posted: March 30, 2010 at 02:25 PM (#3488602)
I'm not convinced at all by the article. Looks much better suited to still be a lefty specialist.

Looks a lot more like he needs to walk a lot of righties or they can hit him with some power. If he's in a traditional set-up role, he could be in a lot of innings where he's facing 2/3, 3/3, or 3/4 righties to start the inning.
   5. thetailor Posted: March 30, 2010 at 02:32 PM (#3488607)
Hey guys - that's my article linked up there. I want to say "first time, long time" but that might be a little over the top in terms of cliche :)

As for the role and the name of it, yes, it's a little silly. But it wasn't my idea to make it and call it that. But since it exists (and in the era of specialization, I can see why it does) I figured I'd look into whether Feliciano makes sense in it.

@Spivey: I'm not sure he'll ever dominate righties, but I think he can be more effective than his past splits would indicate. And FWIW, his past splits aren't that bad against righties. They're not great, but they're not terrible. A lot of guys can get by with a split like that I think.
   6. zack Posted: March 30, 2010 at 02:40 PM (#3488612)
I don't see it. Feliciano's an extreme sidearmer who relies almost completely on an across the body slider to lefties and has a throroughly mediocre changeup. I think he's good enough at getting lefties out to work around the occassional right hander, but if he is expected to get multiple right-handed outs I expect he'll fail.
   7. Greg (U)K Posted: March 30, 2010 at 03:18 PM (#3488632)
Not that I'd ever actually look into it due to my laziness, but could the splits of a guy who has been used primarily as a lefty specialist be kind of skewed?
For example if a manager is facing something like Lyle Overbay-John McDonald-Travis Snider, he might keep his lefty specialist in to face the rigthy in the middle. Whereas a better right handed hitter might convince the manager to pull him out after one batter.

Like I said, I have no idea if this actually effects things, and I certainly have no idea whether it's played any role in Feliciano's splits, but I've always wondered.
   8. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: March 30, 2010 at 03:21 PM (#3488636)
For example if a manager is facing something like Lyle Overbay-John McDonald-Travis Snider, he might keep his lefty specialist in to face the rigthy in the middle. Whereas a better right handed hitter might convince the manager to pull him out after one batter.

A manager who puts Johnny Mac in between two good hitters is off his bean.
   9. Greg (U)K Posted: March 30, 2010 at 03:29 PM (#3488643)
Yeah it was a poor example due to my inability to think of any names. But it does seem to me that managers are far more willing to push a lefty specialist to bridge the gap between two lefties the worse the right-hander in the middle.
   10. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: March 30, 2010 at 11:05 PM (#3489049)
The Met pitching staff has been getting lit up this spring training. I know Spring Training doesn't mean that much but man, I don't think they have a starter with an ERA under 5.00.
   11. thetailor Posted: March 31, 2010 at 03:17 AM (#3489173)
Russlan: You don't think Santana is going to be fine? Granted, after him the rotation is spotty, but they'll have someone step up.

Maine is probably a solid bet to post an ERA under 5 (though the number of innings is uncertain) and Pelfrey and Perez both have had FIP/xERAs under 5 their whole career.
   12. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: March 31, 2010 at 03:30 AM (#3489179)
Russlan: You don't think Santana is going to be fine? Granted, after him the rotation is spotty, but they'll have someone step up.

I just meant all their starting pitchers have spring training ERAs over 5.00.

I am optimistic about Johan. I am cautiously optimistic about Niese (I think he's going to be a good starting pitcher eventually). Pelfrey will be better than last year. I don't have any clue about Perez. Maine is good if he's healthy.
   13. bobm Posted: March 31, 2010 at 03:49 AM (#3489194)
During 2006-2009 Feliciano had 73 holds. Only 23 were 1 IP or longer. 28 were 0.1 IP and 22 were 0.2 IP. This isn't much proof that he can handle the 8th inning role and face right-handed batters, rather than just pitching around them.

That being said, he's hardly the biggest question mark on the Mets 2010 pitching staff.
   14. Something Other Posted: March 31, 2010 at 05:03 AM (#3489226)
This is not a good idea, unfortunately. For his career Feliciano is about 40 points worse than the league average OPS+ of righthanded hitters. That means he makes every hitter, on average, slightly better when they face him. Definitely what you do not want from your setup man, and it's not close. thetailor, the example you give is reasonable. If there's no one out and a HOF hitter is sandwiched between two lefties such that you're going to walk the HOF rh hitter anyway, then sure, keep Feliciano in there. But those are rare occasions, the exceptions to the rule of thumb that you don't want your setup man making the majority of hitters better.

Pedro's 33. He's trending the wrong way (though SSS, obviously), and I haven't heard that he has a new pitch or delivery that will improve his chances against righthanders. Given that, his career splits aren't likely to change:

v. righties .272/.364/.425/788 tOPS 128
v. lefties .214/.279/.302/.581 tOPS 68

Kiko Calero's a much better option, to the point that if I couldn't walk the righty, I'd risk sending Feliciano to RF and let Calero pitch to him. Calero's been unreal against righty's for his career:

Kiko Calero
2009 2-2 1.95 67g 15gf 0sv 60.0ip 36h 1 hr 30bb 69k
Career v LHB 64bb 102k 1.59k/bb .244/.352/.373/725 458 PAs BABIP 300 130tOPS+
Career v RHB 62bb 222k 3.58k/bb .202/.266/.312/578 786 PAs BABIP 270 83tOPS+

Here's your ROOGY. I don't think the Mets are planning to start the season with Green on the major league roster, but if they did...

Sean Green
2009: 1-4 4.52 79g 19gf 0sv 69.2ip 64h 5hr 36bb 54k
Career: 10-11 4.38 239g 53gf 2sv 248.2ip 255h 12hr 119bb 184k 97era+
v RHB 232g 681 PA 49bb 139k 2.84k/bb .266/.329./.349/678 babip .332 tOPS+ 85
v LHB 181g 436 PA 70bb 45k 0.64k/bb .270/.400/.418/817 babip 290 tOPS+ 124

Hell, even Pat Misch as a reliever has been better against righties than Feliciano:
2009: 3-4 4.12 22g 7gs 1cg 59.0ip 62h 9hr 19bb 23k
Career: 3-11 4.79 60g 18gs 10gf 1cg 1sho 0sv 156.0ip 173h 23hr 49bb 88k 90era+
v RHB: 56g 471PA 34bb 54k 16hr .284/.342/.454/796 .290 babip
v LHB: 57g 210PA 15bb 34k 7hr .286/.340/.458/798 .316 babip

The above is misleading in that as a reliever Misch's ERA is 2.85. As a starter it's 6.00. I'd rather have Pat F. Misch face a given righty in a one out situation than I would Feliciano, unfortunately.

Figueroa's also better:
v rhb .253/.321/.418/.739

Nieve's no worse, and this is as a starter and as a reliever:
v rhb .256/.311/.474/785

Similarly, Parnell:
v rhb .289/.353/.412/766

I guess what it comes down to is, if there's no one in your pen who is worse against righthanded hitters than the guy who is asking to be your setup man, why on earth would you put him in that role?
   15. RollingWave Posted: March 31, 2010 at 05:39 AM (#3489246)
Yes, it will end their suffering sooner by having the Mets being 20 games out by the end of May.
   16. Something Other Posted: March 31, 2010 at 07:25 AM (#3489278)
It looks like the Mets are sufficiently dismayed with Ollie's spring that, in spite of Ollie being in the best shape of his life, they're considering putting Niese in the third slot followed by Maine. That limits Ollie as fifth starter to two starts in April.

Now that's a plan.
   17. bobm Posted: March 31, 2010 at 11:21 AM (#3489310)
Kiko Calero's a much better option, to the point that if I couldn't walk the righty, I'd risk sending Feliciano to RF and let Calero pitch to him.


This reminded me fondly of the Mets-Reds game of 1986 (even though Jerry Manuel is no Davey Johnson). How often has this been done otherwise in MLB?
   18. Something Other Posted: April 01, 2010 at 12:12 AM (#3490114)
I can't remember any specifics but my best, albeit hazy recollection is that it happens two or three times per decade.

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